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What have we learned so far about this election cycle, and what does it tell us about what’s likely to happen in the midterm elections of 2022, and the Democratic and GOP primaries for president in 2024?
Historically, California has often served as a movie trailer on our national political future — ‘coming to a theater near you.’ Richard Nixon started there, turning the Cold War threat into an election theme in his early political campaigns; Ronald Reagan transformed what we now think of as movement conservatism during his two terms as governor; and Proposition 187 was a California state ballot issue in 1994, before immigration became a national political issue (it helped get then-Governor Pete Wilson re-elected on the issue of immigration).
Celebrity candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger got elected governor there a year before the first season of The Apprentice. The state’s size and diversity make it a political country within a country: a population of 40 million people, the fifth largest economy in the world, and a whopping 22 million registered voters.
Long-time GOP campaign strategist Mike Murphy has been on the front lines – and often the mastermind – of some of these California campaigns, as well as plenty of national campaigns too.
He’s been thinking about what, if anything, President Biden and the Democrats can do to turn around their near-term electoral headwinds. Mike’s view on the political crack-up is sparked by the breakdown in quality of life for his fellow Californians, and Americans almost everywhere. He also has some analytical insights on everything from the impact of inflation to the future of ‘Roe vs Wade’.
Mike has worked on 26 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races across the country, including 12 GOP wins in Blue States – something that’s getting harder and harder to do. He was a top strategist for John McCain, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Murphy is a political analyst for NBC and MSNBC. He’s co-host of the Hacks on Tap Podcast, and he also pens a political newsletter (The Hacks On Tap Newsletter). Murphy is co-director of the University of Southern California’s Center for the Political Future.
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