Between now and November, we will be taking a close look at the midterm election season, which — for most voters — is just kicking off now. If history is a guide, the first mid-term election cycle of a new president should result in the opposing party (the party not in the White House) scoring a wave of victories in Congress. How big will the wave be?

New polls suggest that there may not be much of a wave for Republicans. But are these new polls missing something?

To offer a masterclass in how to de-code the polls — and a number of other dynamics in these midterms — Mike Murphy returns to the podcast.

Mike’s worked on 26 gubernatorial and US Senate races across the country, including 12 wins in Blue States – something that’s getting harder and harder to do for Republicans. He was a top strategist for John McCain, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

He’s a political analyst for NBC and MSNBC. He’s co-host of the Hacks on Tap podcast and newsletter. And Mike’s also co director of the University of Southern California’s Center for the Political Future.

Pieces discussed in this episode:

Mark Mellman: :
Nate Cohn:

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