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On today’s episode of COVID in 19, Avik Roy and Scott Immergut discuss the “Sweden theory,” which is that one-size-fits-all lockdowns are futile because the moment they are lifted, cases start to come back. But how long will it take for Sweden to reach herd immunity with this strategy?
This past week, baseball made its debut in the U.S., as more than a dozen Miami Marlins players tested positive for the virus. What are best practices the MLB should be taking to keep baseball going and prevent further spread?
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Published in: Healthcare
Avik,
How long before the lockdown produces a worldwide depression. I’m not being dramatic. I seriously think you and other experts need to face this. A worldwide depression would make the COVID pandemic look like a party favor.
Regards,
Jim
@blueyeti
I think Sweden has herd immunity or very close to it
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/27/why-herd-immunity-to-covid-19-is-reached-much-earlier-than-thought-update/
https://unherd.com/podcasts/sunetra-gupta-covid-19-is-on-the-way-out/
https://unherd.com/podcasts/karl-friston-up-to-80-not-even-susceptible-to-covid-19/
Mister Bitcoin,
This is especially interesting. Considering how wrong the original Imperial College estimates for the spread of the virus were, why should we take their estimates of when herd immunity will be in force seriously. I think it could easily be possible that it could happen much earlier. Why believe the same idiots that misdirected us on the spread of the disease.
As I just mentioned on Avik Roy’s post. If you lock down until you produce a worldwide depression, it will make the Pandemic look like a party favor. One way or the other we must consider facing this with the weapons that we have that we know work and get on with it.
Regards,
Jim
Jim,
These are different models.
In fact the article writes:
The Imperial College COVID-19 model (Ferguson et al.[5]) is a prime example of one that does not adequately account for variation in individual susceptibility and connectivity.
I agree the Imperial College model should be ignored completely.
Nicholas Lewis, the author of this article, is not affiliated with Neal Ferguson.
https://www.nicholaslewis.org/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelling-hugely-overestimates-the-expected-death-rates-from-infection/
Dr. Gupta and Dr. Friston have also reached similar conclusions with Mr. Lewis, none are affiliated with Neal Ferguson the architect of the erroneous Imperial College model.
Average age of covid death > average life expectancy
Mister Bitcoin,
Perhaps I didn’t make myself clear in my comment. I wasn’t criticizing the experts Avik Roy is presenting but rather the common acceptance, unquestioning, of very weak old discredited models specifically when it comes to herd immunity. Given the propensity for misinformation coming from leftwing media and statist health agencies, we must fight these fear peddling parasites and vindicate herd immunity as they try their best to smear it.
Regards,
Jim
https://www.statista.com/statistics/526013/sweden-number-of-households-by-type/