My Money Is on a Trump Victory

 

For what it is worth: Nothing is ever certain, and much could go wrong, but my money remains on a Trump victory. Why?

1) It feels a whole lot like Reagan in ’80 and Newt in ’94.

Reagan was disliked by the establishment (who liked Baker or Bush), viewed with suspicion by professional conservatives (they liked Phil Crane, not a divorced, former Democrat, big spending governor), and regarded with condescension by the media and left (who saw him as stupid and a dangerous cowboy). Those camps could not fathom the breadth and depth of his popular momentum.

Ditto the GOP taking the House in ’94 – I was on CNN five weeks prior to that election, and produced outright guffaws and rolled eyes from everyone when I said that the GOP would win not just the Senate, but take the House. The signs were all there but because the idea seemed so preposterous, they couldn’t see.

More recently Matt Bevin was left for dead by most of the smart money in his race for KY governor, and Brexit was “sure” not to pass. Trump is an extension of that zeitgeist for many – a long awaited reclaiming of control of their lives, of their country, of their self-identity.

2) Who are you going to believe, polls or your lying eyes?

I started asking people in the spring for whom they were voting. A surprisingly large percentage of not-supposed-to-be-a-Trump-supporter types turned out to be exactly that. That includes rich and highly educated people, women, blacks, Hispanics, and Muslims. A bunch of anecdotes, but interesting.

Everyone keeps saying this election is about Trump. But I have come to believe it really is about his supporters, who to a person are deeply versed in all his flaws and faults and support him regardless. For them, this is about one or more of the following:

  • deep antipathy for Hillary and all she represents and would do,
  • disappointment with a broken system they feel has ignored and in some cases harmed them for years, or
  • a reclaiming of the country and their own lives and personhood.

They genuinely love and worry about their country and they want to feel proud again to be an American.

3) If what got incinerated was a phoenix, don’t bet against it rising.

If you’ve seen someone succeed at something five or six or nine times, how smart is it to bet they won’t do it the 10th time? How many times was seemingly everyone sure that Trump was finished – only he came back stronger than before? Many of us missed, time and again, the meta messages Trump was sending that galvanize his support and many miss it still.

4) Stages of Grief

For two-thirds of GOP voters, Trump wasn’t just another candidate – he was the one potentially viable candidate they feared. So with Trump triumphant, enter the stages of grief – denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and finally acceptance, each at his or her own pace.

You can tell many are at that nadir of depression by the way those who are the most depressed about Trump interpret Trump. Having a predisposition, as understandable as it might be, can hinder our understanding of what is happening. If someone starts with the assumption that Trump is ignorant, stupid, or dangerous, it rules out considering the possibility that comments like “founders of ISIS” could simply be brilliant hyperbole.

In contrast, allowing the idea that Trump is actually as smart as his overall track record, even discounted, indicates, permits the perspective that his repeated “gaffes” are purposeful, and a calculated strategy to garner millions of dollars in free media, wherein his larger point gets made for him, over and over. That’s no mean feat in a media environment stacked in favor of the left and Democrats and against conservatives and any GOP nominee.

5) It’s still summer.

I have found that many folks who are normally GOP voters but who are unhappy about Trump largely fall into two camps. The first are those who object because Trump isn’t solidly, reliably conservative on their priority issues. The second are those who, at bottom, find Trump personally objectionable, as does almost everyone they know, so they feel that the prospect of supporting him would violate the way they see themselves and wish to have others think of them.

These are real concerns that even many Trump supporters say they have worked through. But if folks are hitting despair in August, that means they have September and October to move to acceptance. Why would they? Because Hillary’s presidency and all it implies will become so much more real.

Between the choice of someone who will get pretty much every policy decision wrong, versus someone who might get some of them right, more and more people who presently can’t see voting for Trump will decide that on the “lesser of two evils” spectrum, they will be a Trump voter, even if they are not a Trump supporter.

One cannot discount the barrage of negative ads that will come against Trump. And who knows what new revelations will shift the ground yet again? But particularly with increasing Clinton pay-to-play revelations, if by early October the social opprobrium shifts from “how could I possibly support him?” to “how could I possibly enable her?”, Republicans will win the presidency.

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  1. Mike H Inactive
    Mike H
    @MikeH

    And the award for this election season’s @paulrahe goes to…

    • #1
  2. RightAngles Member
    RightAngles
    @RightAngles

    Thank you, Heather! I’d forgotten about the disapproval of Reagan due to the divorce and the former Democrat thing. And look how that turned out. As frustrating as it’s been, I have to admit this is the most interesting election in my lifetime.

    • #2
  3. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    Spot-on, Heather. I have been predicting a Trump landslide myself for some time now.

    • #3
  4. Fritz Coolidge
    Fritz
    @Fritz

    Despite my own reservations about Trump, I pray you are right, because I have zero reservations about Hillary — she would be a disaster!

    • #4
  5. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Well, a bit touchy-feely.  I’d prefer a reasoned approach finding states adding up to 270.  I can’t get there.

    • #5
  6. Andrew Chouinard Inactive
    Andrew Chouinard
    @AndrewChouinard

    In contrast, allowing the idea that Trump is actually as smart as his overall track record, even discounted, indicates, permits the perspective that his repeated “gaffes” are purposeful, and a calculated strategy to garner millions of dollars in free media, wherein his larger point gets made for him, over and over. That’s no mean feat in a media environment stacked in favor of the left and Democrats and against conservatives and any GOP nominee.

    Wait, so filling his campaign staff with Kremlin hacks was just part of a game of three-dimensional chess designed to fool the media into giving him free airtime?

    • #6
  7. RightAngles Member
    RightAngles
    @RightAngles

    Hoyacon:Well, a bit touchy-feely. I’d prefer a reasoned approach finding states adding up to 270. I can’t get there.

    Quit bein’ logical!

    • #7
  8. Trinity Waters Member
    Trinity Waters
    @

    Mike LaRoche:Spot-on, Heather. I have been predicting a Trump landslide myself for some time now.

    I’m becoming ever more confident that I’ll win my $100 bet with my neighbor over my prediction of a landslide.  All five of Heather’s points are truly spot-on.  But, either way, we and our wives go out to dinner together.  He served in the navy but I’ve forgiven that already.

    • #8
  9. TKC1101 Member
    TKC1101
    @

    From the viewpoint of a person who feels this is the last chance to steer the country off the over the cliff setting is has been locked onto for decades, I want Trump to win. I agree, he is an unusual standard bearer, but he is the one we have precisely because he is not a typical GOP offering.

    I do believe that if he can show a path to victory in the polls by fighting it out on the ground for the next month, I believe even the reluctant GOP folks will come around.

    If he does win, it will mean he defeated the Media, The DNC machine, The Clinton crew, the Spooky Soros and Other Globalists, the GOPe and the Conservative Scribbling Class.

    That will be something to behold.

    The TrumpExit from Crony Government.

    • #9
  10. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Heather Higgins: The first are those who object because Trump isn’t solidly, reliably conservative on their priority issues.

    Name five things that Trump has been solidly, reliably conservative on.

    Name three.

    Name one.

    • #10
  11. Could Be Anyone Inactive
    Could Be Anyone
    @CouldBeAnyone

    Percival:

    Heather Higgins: The first are those who object because Trump isn’t solidly, reliably conservative on their priority issues.

    Name five things that Trump has been solidly, reliably conservative on.

    Name three.

    Name one.

    Can one reason those who unreasoned themselves into a corner Percival?

    You seem to forget that trump fights after all…

    • #11
  12. BastiatJunior Member
    BastiatJunior
    @BastiatJunior

    Hoyacon:Well, a bit touchy-feely. I’d prefer a reasoned approach finding states adding up to 270. I can’t get there.

    Win the popular vote by 2 or 3 percentage points and the Electoral College will take care of itself.  In short there will be surprises.

    • #12
  13. Ball Diamond Ball Member
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    Note:

    Ball...

    Good post, HH. Shame the bots are out tonight.

    • #13
  14. Sleepywhiner Inactive
    Sleepywhiner
    @Sleepywhiner

    Percival:

    Heather Higgins: The first are those who object because Trump isn’t solidly, reliably conservative on their priority issues.

    Name five things that Trump has been solidly, reliably conservative on.

    Name three.

    Name one.

    That particular quest will have to wait for 2020. In 2016, I have decided to take the candidate who has the best chance to send the Clintons to the ash heap of history.  That happens to be Trump.

    • #14
  15. Robert McReynolds Member
    Robert McReynolds
    @

    RightAngles:

    Hoyacon:Well, a bit touchy-feely. I’d prefer a reasoned approach finding states adding up to 270. I can’t get there.

    Quit bein’ logical!

    Logic? Last I checked not one state has voted so it’s more like guess work at this point.

    • #15
  16. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    Mike H:And the award for this election season’s @paulrahe goes to…

    Or Pauline Kael.

    Trump would run away with the 1980 electorate. Two problems:

    1. Thanks to Simpson-Mazolli, we have a different electorate. My guess is WSJ columnists don’t talk with the additions.
    2. Democrat vote fraud is no longer just for Chicago.
    • #16
  17. Valiuth Member
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    All the previous predictions of Trumps impossibility to win the primary required people to assume that the polling was wrong and that all sorts of improbable alignment of the stars would take place that would propel either Rubio or Cruz to victory. We are now seeing this same kind of wishful thinking on behalf of Trump. I guess we shall see.

    • #17
  18. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Mike LaRoche:Spot-on, Heather. I have been predicting a Trump landslide myself for some time now.

    I don’t know about a landslide. Bit I am heartened that with all the headwinds against Trump, The Beast can’t seem to pull away.  At some point she has to come out of hiding, and then I think the revulsion will be so strong  in the independents she will be in real trouble.

    • #18
  19. CuriousJohn Inactive
    CuriousJohn
    @CuriousJohn

    I hope you are right. But you are stretching thinks  abit to align this dumpster fire with RR.  If he wins it will simple be linked to ; noone can trust the pant suit .   Stop blowing smoke

    • #19
  20. Cato Rand Inactive
    Cato Rand
    @CatoRand

    Your arguments are essentially all based on feelings you have.  You’re entitled to those, surely.  But for what it’s worth, I have entirely different feelings and I don’t think you provide any sound basis to choose between mine and yours in terms of predictive value.

    • #20
  21. Richard Rummelhart Inactive
    Richard Rummelhart
    @RichardRummelhart

    Trump promised unrelenting attacks on Hillary Clinton.  Instead we have seen Trump time after time create situations where he can be attacked by Clinton.  He is running a campaign which allows Clinton to win not by talking about her self or issues but instead to gain support by attacking Trump.

    Trump was a fraud from the very beginning his only purpose in running was to help elect Clinton.

    • #21
  22. BD Member
    BD
    @

    Rich Lowry wrote this after Mitch McConnell won his 2014 primary: “These groups ran a weak candidate with probably a long shot to win at best….”

    That candidate was current Kentucky governor, Matt Bevin.

    • #22
  23. Lois Lane Coolidge
    Lois Lane
    @LoisLane

    The problem with these assumptions is that they are based more on feeling/instinct than data.  Also Heather purports that Republicans who don’t like Trump are simply disappointed by not having their own primary candidate win.  But there wasn’t a Never Reagan movement that I can recall that looked like Never Trump.  (Yes, I understand there was John Anderson, but he was seen as a popular Carter spoiler as much as a protest to Reagan.)

    Regardless, even if they were disappointed, those who loved Bush were mostly appeased when he was named as running mate.  Though Mike Pence is a conservative guy, there is still no party unity.   And there are reasons for that far beyond sour grapes.  People who have voted R their entire voting lives will not pull the lever for the Donald.  I know lots of them.  And polls reflect this disenchantment.  The comparison with Reagan is flawed.

    • #23
  24. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    Richard Rummelhart: Trump was a fraud from the very beginning his only purpose in running was to help elect Clinton.

    This has been my theory-in-use since he entered the race.

    • #24
  25. Columbo Inactive
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    I agree with you Heather. The pollsters have no idea who is voting this November. They can’t model it.

    Despite the best efforts of the DNC-run media 24/7, Hillary is the most hated person running.

    • #25
  26. Front Seat Cat Member
    Front Seat Cat
    @FrontSeatCat

    The same statement applies to Hillary in that those that know all her flaws will still vote for her.  They hold two completely opposing ideologies. Two things bother me the most – I was bothered by Claire B.’s post on Trump – that smart, thinking conservatives see him as a nincompoop and will pull the lever for HRC, including Claire and others here on Ricochet.  That is astounding to me, given her and Bill’s track record on a global scale.  The stories about the both of them continue to become darker and darker by the day.

    Second, that it is not a populist vote, but electoral.  So no matter how popular Trump is sounding, the big states hold the cards and they tend to be liberal and vote democrat, PA, CA, OH, and south FL.  I would say that’s the rigged part – it is not a full reflection of the country.

    • #26
  27. Columbo Inactive
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    Lois Lane:The problem with these assumptions is that they are based more on feeling/instinct than data. Also Heather purports that Republicans who don’t like Trump are simply disappointed by not having their own primary candidate win. But there wasn’t a Never Reagan movement that I can recall that looked like Never Trump. (Yes, I understand there was John Anderson, but he was seen as a popular Carter spoiler as much as a protest to Reagan.)

    Regardless, even if they were disappointed, those who loved Bush were mostly appeased when he was named as running mate. Though Mike Pence is a conservative guy, there is still no party unity. And there are reasons for that far beyond sour grapes. People who have voted R their entire voting lives will not pull the lever for the Donald. I know lots of them. And polls reflect this disenchantment. The comparison with Reagan is flawed.

    It’s an analogy, a “feels like” comparison on certain aspects of each race.

    Of course it doesn’t hold true to the original in all things. As an analogy, it doesn’t have to.

    • #27
  28. cdor Member
    cdor
    @cdor

    Welcome Heather and thank you for an uplifting post on Trump. They are few and far between here at Ricochet. I know that stock funds always warn that past history is not a guarantee of future performance. That may also be the case in politics. Demographics change considerably over the 35 years since Reagan, but at least his performance gives room for hope with Trump. It is still early and those that “trumpet” his demise are mostly those that wish for it. However, the same can be said for those of us who are wishing for his victory. Lots of things can happen in the next two months.

    • #28
  29. Tenacious D Inactive
    Tenacious D
    @TenaciousD

    Speaking of putting money on it, here are the current prices (based on outcome probability) on PredictIt:

    https://www.predictit.org/Market/1296/Which-party-will-win-the-2016-US-Presidential-election

    • #29
  30. Unsk Member
    Unsk
    @Unsk

    Please  do not equate Trump with Reagan.

    This does not feel like 1980, and Trump is not Reagan.

    Reagan was a genuine conservative and Trump is a lying Leftist.

    Reagan meant what he said. No one can ever believe anything the con-artist Trump says.

    The crucial questions between Hillary and Trump are who is the most corrupt? Who  is mostly likely to sell us out to Putin? Which of the two is most likely to push and achieve their leftist agenda? and who is most likely to do the most damage to the country?

    I find Trump to be the most dangerous, because:

    A. I don’t think Hillary even cares about her agenda; all  she cares about is her power.

    B. While she will almost surely win the Presidency , Hillary has almost no credibility anymore. No one likes her or trusts her while there are still millions of adoring Trump fans who think Trump can do no wrong.

    C. Trump is some weird way is committed to his Blue Collar Leftist /Fascist agenda and will strongly push for it. The Fascist in him will seek to destroy those rights that inconvenience his enormous ego and thirst for power.

    D. Trump is owned by  Putin and the Russian Oligarchy who have the keys to Trump’s precious real estate empire. He already has bent way over backwards to support Putin.

    E. Hillary is in really bad health and will not have the energy to push any agenda.

    • #30
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