Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
Message Matters: Trump Succeeded, Yellen Failed
Most political reporters are fixated on the presidential horserace rather than the message candidates are sending to voters. Message wins all the time. Message moves polls. Message raises money. Message determines elections.
Most of all, a clear message tells voters what a candidate believes and where he or she wants to take the country.
Ronald Reagan was the master of the message. Campaigning on a few key points, he told America how he was going to rejuvenate the economy and defeat Soviet communism. He didn’t spend much time on detail. But over and over he repeated his strategic message. It worked.
The two biggest events this past week were Donald Trump’s landslide in New Hampshire and Janet Yellen’s testimonies before Congress. Trump’s message succeeded. Yellen’s failed.
An unlikely pair to be sure. But let’s give a quick thought to why Trump got it and Yellen did not.
First up, Janet Yellen. Six weeks ago the Fed raised its target interest rate, with a lot of hawkish talk about three years of sequential rate hikes. Markets crashed in response. And now the Fed is in full retreat.
This is not a clear message. This is not leadership.
Before the House this week, Yellen acknowledged that the Fed’s forecast and polices may not be working. (What an understatement.) She pointed to stock market declines and higher credit-risk interest rates. And when asked whether the Fed was changing its upbeat economic view that would lead to more rate hikes, she replied, “Maybe, but the jury is out.”
Oil prices and inflation are falling. So are profits. No clear message.
The next day before the Senate, not only did Yellen back off additional Fed rate hikes, she raised the issue of pushing short-term interest rates into negative territory. Woah. The flip-flop of flip-flops.
That policy hasn’t worked in Europe or Japan, and it won’t work here. It would destroy savers, again. Banks will go into short- and medium-term Treasuries, which at least have a positive yield, rather than make loans. And negative rates will crush net interest margins for banks.
The Dow fell 231 points following Yellen’s stellar performance. Year to date, stocks are off 11 percent. And banks are off 18.5 percent. You’re not going to breed economic confidence when the Fed leaves everyone in confusion.
Now let’s leave Ms. Yellen in the emergency room and move on to a patient who has healed in the message department.
Donald Trump is today mastering the art of the positive. Coming out of an Iowa loss, campaign manager Corey Lewandowski told him bluntly, according to the Wall Street Journal, “We can knock on every door and call every resident. But most important: If we remain positive and focus on our message, we can win New Hampshire.”
Win indeed.
When I interviewed Trump on the day before the primary, he emphasized his positive message of optimism, growth, and national security. In recent weeks, he has talked about how America has been losing key battles around the world, whether it’s ISIS, Russia, Iran, China trade, immigration, or the declining economy. And he has loudly proclaimed: If you elect me, we will start winning again. Everywhere.
Asked what a President Trump would do about the risk of recession, he reeled off a series of tax cuts, deregulations, and federal budget cuts. He knows the country is in revolt against Washington DC, and he plays to that with his program.
He talks about oil independence and opening up federal oil fields.
He talks about bombing ISIS oil trucks.
He mentions Anthony Scalia and Clarence Thomas as models for Supreme Court appointments.
He talks about creating jobs — over and over.
He talks about strong border controls to fix the illegal-immigration problem.
He talks about a strong military and renewed support for our military vets.
He proposes a total repeal of Obamacare, with HSAs and crossing state lines for more competition.
Perhaps most interesting, he is railing against big corporations and their big money deposited in super PACs. Unlike a typical Republican, he hangs out Big Oil, Big Pharma, Big Insurance, and Big Lumber as examples of the corrupt monetary influence on American politics.
I asked him if he intended to change the Republican party. He snapped, “You bet I do. It needs changing.”
There are soft spots in Trump’s proposals, most particularly on China trade. His tariff threat is worrying Wall Street and pro-growth free-traders like myself. More work on that will come.
But apart from even these details, Trump’s message is clear: America must start winning. And yes, we must make America great again.
Positive and optimistic. Growth. Leadership. Clarity. It worked in New Hampshire.
Janet Yellen, on the other hand, nearly fell off the financial ladder.
Message matters. There’s a lesson here for all of us.
Published in Economics
Now this is a vision of Trump I can get behind!
Thank you Mr. Kudlow.
Enough about Trump for a Friday.
Yellen deserves every word of criticism. Bernanke started this transparent fed foolishness and Mrs. Yellen is not equipped to operate in this environment and under this scrutiny. This is like watching the central bank of Madagascar trying to manage the world reserve currency.
Yea, her massage on the Consumer Protection Agency was spot on. She knew nothing , zip nana. My dog Rooney knows more. Thanks Obama.
For decades the message went forth that Reagan’s political success was built on optimism, that he projected a sunny, positive disposition and that Americans, an optimistic people by nature, responded to that. Liberals said it sarcastically, conservatives said it as praise.
What nonsense.
Consultants preached the same message. Candidate after candidate was told to radiate optimism and to talk about all of us coming together, that there was nothing we couldn’t do together to solve all the bad things in America.
You can fill in the blank with your own favorite grinning pseudo-Reagan.
It wasn’t optimism. Anybody who saw “A Time for Choosing” knows that Reagan was not an “amiable dunce” or amiable anything else.
What Reagan was was pro-American. He loved this country and he loved the flesh-and-blood people who are this country. He had unlimited faith in the American people, not as they could be or almost are, but as they actually are, today, right here-and-now. Reagan, unlike every liberal who has ever lived, was not trying to make us better; he was interested in helping us be ourselves, free of unnecessary and arbitrary impediments.
That’s Trump’s message, too. That’s why he is attracting huge crowds, especially people who have been politically inert for decades. (Since Reagan.) Agree or disagree with him, everyone understands that Trump, with his commonplace language and easy manner, plus his willingness to fight for us, just plain likes the American people.
Regardless of what is in Trump’s soul, or brain etc, this is a winning message. Like the ouster of Boehner, what matters is not a better replacement. What matters is the fact that he can be ousted from the right. Who in the establishment will assume that Trump’s support within the GOP plantation comes from the left end of the party? Nobody.
Objections that Trump is not conservative are particularly ineffective because Trump in his non-conservatism more closely resembles the establishment types. His winning candidacy is an indictment of the elite left end of the party, not the base what brung him.
The party needs changing or it needs burning. Despite shrieked accusations from the “but that’s electoral suicide” crowd, many Trump supporters want to change the GOP, not kill it. Positive reinforcement has not only failed but proved disastrous, so now we will see who can force whom to do what. The establishment picked this fight, and the base means to win it. Whether Trump understand that or not, he at least sounds like he wants to win. It does not matter what Trump is made of, so long as he is hurled against the door of the establishment with sufficient force.
“The Republican party needs changing.” Like a diaper.
Yup. Breitbart’s “happy warrior” is more than just “happy”. Reagan didn’t joke his way out of having his microphone cut. He ran it up the backside of those who had done it, and punctuated it with a bootmark that resonates through the ages.
Great piece, Mr. Kudlow. Thanks for posting it on Ricochet.
Fabulous, Larry, hope you run for the Senate and I’m with Freesmith and Ball Diamond Ball!
I have never listened to Trump and heard it as a positive message. I hear, the Republican Party sucks, the Political leaders suck, we never win anymore… I’m not in disagreement, it’s just not positive. It’s negative.
And it makes me tired.
That’s why I like Rubio, because in spite of the terrible economy, in spite of the Clinton fiascos of his youth, in spite of the decades of war, Marco Rubio achieved the American Dream! He has a wonderful family, an optimistic outlook… the world is good. Marco never stopped believing… and he makes me believe it too. And you know what! I’ve achieved the American Dream too!!!! But I forgot to notice the miracle of America in my own life.
Here (!!!!!), have a few more exclamation marks , it looks like you may be running a little low.
Amen, Sash. A lot of us seem to forget to notice that miracle, too. Nicely put.
Message matters, but first establish rapport. I’ve read that in hypnosis you can do that by mirroring the breathing of the subject. Similarly, if a patient thinks of himself as a worthless turd, it does no good to deny that and compliment him, since then you are clearly lying, in his eyes, and untrustworthy. Trump mirrors the frustration of his voters about issues that matter to them. So they trust him. Once rapport is established, he will be able to communicate more subtle messages. “Mandrake gestures hypnotically.”
It also works to determine if they are visual, auditory or kinesthetic and then mirror their basic body movements. Never move your hips, keeps your hands below chest height but in front and smile with your whole face if in front of a crowd.
If that does not work, then someone has established rapport with you first and you just handed over your wallet…
Trump follows the same path that a Master Sales Trainer once told me: “People only care about two things when you talk to them, Significance and Certainty. If you are making them feel more significant, they move towards you emotionally. If you are offering more certainty in their life, they are moving towards you intellectually.”
Trump’s messaging offers both. He is making a group feel more significant who have been trashed for being religious, racist, stupid, greedy and not diverse, and offering them easily visualizable things he will do (build a wall, kill ISIS, rebuild the military, bring back jobs) to make them feel more certain.
It is sales technique, been around since they sold pyramid glue to the Pharaohs purchasing guys.
Since 2009, the Fed has been engaging in Madness: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Libs can never admit their actions are simply not working.
How is that NOT positive?
Bah! Larry I think you are loosing it. Trump is an untrustworthy New York liberal, who can make no good accounting of his newly found conservatism. This makes me think that it is all an act. No principles means he will betray anything and everything. Given peoples feelings about the former and some of the current GOP leadership you think the base would be more weary. But they seem mesmerized by his incoherent rambling.
Trump may very well win the nomination (better than even odds) and the presidency (I think less than even odds), but I don’t Trust him to do one darn conservative thing while in office. Heck I don’t even trust him to appoint good people around him. I expect him to go with sycophants and yes men. I expect him to Turn the presidency into his new reality TV show with all the melodrama played out on the 24 hour News Channels.
… . . I expect him to Turn the presidency into his new reality TV show with all the melodrama played out on the 24 hour News Channels.
It’s not already?
Meh. Trump is positive about Trump. He’s nasty and petty toward anyone who disagrees with him–he’s threatening to sue Cruz now over ads that tell the truth about Trump. He has the moral scruples of the mob. I’ve read that he likes to pay sub-contractors 80% of what he owes and then tell them to sue for the rest, which they can’t afford to do. That’s the reality about this slime ball. All the happy talk in the world can’t change that. If we put this man in charge of our country, we will all be losers, and Trump will enrich Trump as he has always done.
I’d bet that’s either not true (or else why would anyone accept a job from him), or it’s some form of recoupment for subcontractors padding the hell out of their costs or sandbagging.
Agree. The first step in the cure is admitting the problem.
Well, of course, he only does something as long as he can get away with it, then he moves on to the next shady tactic. This is exactly how he has run his campaign. He has fooled a significant number of voters this way, but I doubt he can fool enough to win the general. And if he is elected Caudillo in Chief, a caudillo country is the likely result.
Well at least this post brings some clarity for me: If I vote for Trump and he makes America great again without crushing the constitution — I have Kudlow to thank. If I vote for Trump and he crushes the constitution — I have Kudlow to blame for vouching for Trump. If I don’t vote for Trump and a Democrat is elected — I have “Against Trump” to blame. If I don’t vote for Trump, a Republican is elected, and the constitution continues to be crushed — I have “Against Trump” to blame. If I don’t vote for Trump, a Republican is elected, and the constitution is restored — I have “Against Trump” and Glenn Beck to thank.
Isn’t that what we are all looking for? Someone else to blame/thank. (Of course, of the five scenarios I laid out only 1 is good, 1 is better, and 3 are bad. The odds are not good.)
Being a bully and a jerk is not leadership.
Donald Trump tweeting yesterday that if Ted Cruz doesn’t “clean up his act, stop cheating and doing negative ads, I have standing to sue him for not being a natural born citizen” is not leadership.
Donald Trump vowing on CBS This Morning this past Wednesday to make North Korea dictator Kin Jong un disappear — “I would get China to make that guy disappear, in one form or another, very quickly”, seeming to advocate assassination, is not leadership.
This is reckless messaging, this is dangerous messaging, this is messaging the Democrats will use as a hammer to destroy him in a general election.
I just wish that somewhere you could have been confident enough to say “He believes…” in anything.
The longer Ms. Yellen’s mug continues to pollute coverage of the financial news cycle the less confident I am that things will ever get any better. I will remain skeptical of (i.e. strenuously reject) any “green shoot” sightings from anyone as long as she is still around.
Let’s get back to the first critique. Where did you read that stiffing contractors on the last 20% is his thing? Is that in dispute? What does Trump say about it?
Oh yes it is. That dude is way overdue. There is no moral argument for keeping him alive — just laziness, cowardice, and a healthy serving of process-based arguments.
On one of the political blogs–either Realclearpolitics, National Review or Powerline. Those are the ones I read.