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Thankful for the Beach

By Ekosj

| November 28, 2020

“The beach is a place where a man can feel
He’s the only soul in the world that’s real
… Crazy days. Crazy days”
— Pete Townsend, “Bellboy,” Quadrophenia

The lovely Mrs E and I spent most of Wednesday and today on the beach at Sandy Hook, NJ. No matter how insane things are out in the world, everything is better with the sound of the surf and your toes in the sand. Though it’s late November, the ocean is still relatively warm. We did eight or nine miles each day, barefoot and ankle-deep in the surf. It’s just splendid.

I love the off-season best of all. Wednesday we had the place to ourselves. Today there were a couple of fishermen, and the surf was ok so there were some surfers. But still large swathes of beach with no footprints but ours. Not what you’d ordinarily think of when you think of the Jersey Shore.

Walter Wenck at Stalingrad

By Ekosj

| November 24, 2020

Colonel Walter Wenck was in command of no one and nothing. There was nothing to command. Technically, he’d just been appointed chief of staff of the Romanian 3rd Army, part of German Army Group B. Again, technically, the 150,000 men of the Romanian 3rd Army held an 85-mile section of the Eastern Front just north and west of Stalingrad. Actually, the Romanian 3rd Army had ceased to exist over the past 48 hours. On 20 November 1942, a huge Soviet counteroffensive had smashed into the shoulders of the German salient at Stalingrad and pulverized the Romanian, Hungarian and Italian formations in their way. Soviet armored units poured through the gaps and roamed freely across the snowy steppe in the rear of the 300,000 Germans at Stalingrad. What was left of the Romanian 3rd Army was in headlong retreat, its path marked by columns of acrid black smoke spewing from ruined vehicles. Scattered units tried to turn and fight, but there was no front, no line of resistance. Just the maelstrom and sudden death as Soviet tanks appeared out of the snow.

Right now, there was nothing between the Soviets and Rostov-on-Don but air … and the remnants of broken units wandering in the steppe. Somehow, Wenck knew, he had to impose order on the chaos. At this moment, the Russians were concentrating on closing the trap on Stalingrad. But that wouldn’t last. If they reached Rostov, not only would Stalingrad be lost, but anyone south of the river Don between Stalingrad and Rostov would be doomed. That included the 1,000,000 men of Army Group A in the Caucuses. So Wenck went to work.

Out on the wind-swept steppe west of Stalingrad, each little village between Stalingrad and the Chir River housed some sort of repair shop, supply facility, replacement center, or transport depot. Mechanics, bakers, clerks, photographers, and drivers had been cast adrift by the Soviet onslaught. Men going on leave, men returning from leave, officers just passing through all suddenly found themselves on their own. There were some oddments of units cobbled together under names like Group General Spang or Group Colonel Schmidt or Group Colonel Abraham trying to dig in and resist. They weren’t much. But they were German and willing.

Wenck started recruiting whomever and wherever he could. He had a group of experienced non-commissioned officers, who in the traditions of NCOs everywhere set about finding their commander the tools he needed. His security team found some fuel trucks “belonging to no one.” Wenck had them put up ‘fueling point’ signs. Every vehicle that stopped became part of Wenck’s little army. They came across an entertainment company and had them set up their movie screens at several crossroads. Again, anyone who stopped to watch was rearmed and dragooned. Tank carriers transporting other unit’s armor were relieved of their cargo. They cleaned out repair shops and supply depots. Anything that rolled or shot, anyone with a weapon or without was collected and sent into Wenck’s ranks.

And unbelievably, these scratch units began to hold. They could give some ground, but they could not break. Makeshift armored units counterattacked into the flanks of the Soviet advance again and again in the cold and snow. In days they were down to six tanks and a self-propelled gun, but they grimly held on.

Finally, at the beginning of December, organized help began to arrive. The first to arrive was the 17th Army Corps commanded by General Karl Hollidt. Hollidt took command of all units in the area and Wenck’s odd little army passed into history.

Peak Fall Covid?

By Ekosj

| November 22, 2020

I’ve been keeping track of some Covid-19 metrics. I’m particularly interested in the percent of new tests that are positive (%+) and the change in the number of hospitalizations. Those metrics indicate that the fall surge of Covid that’s been brewing up since late September might be topping out. The following graphs are based on data from the Covid tracking project. The calculations and graphs (and any errors) are my own.

The red line in the graph below is a seven-day moving average of %+ over the past 60 days. It appears to be forming a top and rolling over. The last three daily data points ( not the moving average) have actually been going down very slightly.

This is being mirrored by the seven-day moving average of the change in hospitalizations. Again, it appears that the recent surge might be topping out.

Let’s hope this continues. Fingers crossed.

Welcome to 2030

By Ekosj

| November 20, 2020

This article was penned by a member of the Danish Parliament to promote discussion about just where we are headed.

To some, it’s a utopian goal … the desired endpoint of our current big tech, big government, Marxist cooperative. To others, it’s a totalitarian hell to be avoided at all costs. But it was published by the World Economic Forum, proponents of the “Great Reset.”

Is this where they really think we could end up? It seems amazingly economically naive for something put out by an economics organization. Free clean energy? Free telecommunications? Free … everything? Without some analog to the Philosopher’s Stone, scarcity will be with us always. And with it, nothing is free. Some method must exist to ration scarce goods. Prices, determined by the free choices of free people, seem to be the best way we know to do this. But it’s not the only way. All the others depend on varying degrees of authoritarian fiat. Surely the WEF knows this. So why pretend that there is a “free stuff” possible future? They certainly seem to know there is a downside to the “free stuff” future…

Once in a while, I get annoyed about the fact that I have no real privacy. Nowhere I can go and not be registered. I know that, somewhere, everything I do, think and dream of is recorded. I just hope that nobody will use it against me.

The downside is very real. But the “free stuff” future is a physical impossibility. Yet they dangle it out there as if it were a real choice. It would seem to be an attempt to get the gullible to trade their liberty for a chimera that can’t be delivered. Fortunately for them, the ranks of the gullible are large and growing. Unfortunate for us.

Democrat Electoral Corruption: A Child’s Recollection

By Ekosj

| November 12, 2020

My grandfather was a giant of a man. Kind and caring. He taught me to fish and to clean and cook what I caught. Though our side of the family were fishermen only, he was the official camp cook for every hunting trip the extended family went on. He worked in blue-collar, factory jobs his entire life. He was a fierce (Behind his back he was known as ‘The Mad Russian’) union man and Democrat loyalist. The sun rose and set on the sainted memory of FDR. He was very active in local — heavily Democratic — Pennsylvania politics.

As a child, I was part of his election-day routine. Every Election Day, after school, he’d swing by our house and tell my Mom that he was taking me for a walk. I’d hold his hand as we’d walk the mile or so to the union hall. In my memory, they are golden autumn afternoons listening to his tales of fishing and politicking. I recall eating butterscotch candies from a bowl on the union rep’s desk while he and my Grandpa, wreathed in clouds of cigarette smoke, talked business. He’d leave with two envelopes — one fat with greenbacks, the other with a list of registered Democrats in his voting precinct.

After dinner, he and I would go out again. First stop was the polling place. Ours was a small precinct and though the polling location varied from year to year, it was never more than a couple of blocks away. There, he’d powwow with the Democrat poll watchers and he’d mark up his list of registered Dems with their list of which Democrats from the neighborhood had already been in to vote. The watchers would get a taste of the other envelope for their hard work. Then we were off. We’d stop at every house where one of the negligent lived. He’d gladhand, cajole, and, if needed, use the envelope to convince his mark that their vote was needed. The world might not be watching … but The Mad Russian was. He would be sorely disappointed if he had less than 100% turnout.

When I got older, I was volunteered to be one of the poll watchers (I think the term is “voluntold”) and he’d do his rounds alone. Maybe he was a bit more direct without his helper. Once, one of his marks came in to vote and on his way out drifted over and whispered that he wished my Grandpa would be more diplomatic. I passed that along. Grandpa guffawed. Diplomacy?! This is local politics, kid. Diplomacy is a two-by-four or a ten-dollar bill.

He passed away a long while back. He’d be very upset to know I’m a Republican. He loved me lots, but I’m not sure how “diplomatic” he’d be. I’m sure I’d have my hands full. So … today, if you tell me that Democrats play outside the rules to impact a Pennsylvania election, I’d say of course … it’s more or less a family tradition.

Biden Whopper of the Night: ‘Not One Single Person Lost Private Insurance under Obamacare’

By Ekosj

| October 23, 2020

I expected lies from Biden Thursday night. The guy’s whole career is a fiction. But the line about no one losing their private health insurance was, to me, the whopper of the night. My lovely bride and I lost our private health insurance under Obamacare. So did millions of others.

If you recall, Obamacare regulations required that all insurance policies provide at least a fixed set of coverages. Those included maternity care and pediatric vision and dental care. Surprisingly, as people over 55 with grown children who had their own insurance, our plan did not offer maternity or pediatric coverage. But for the things we needed it offered excellent coverage. No matter, our plan was cancelled.

From Ballotpedia:

NBC News reported that between 50 percent and 75 percent of the 14 million who buy individual health insurance would likely receive a cancellation notice over 2014 because their plans did not meet the requirements of the ACA.
CBS News reported that more than two million Americans were told they could not renew their insurance policies for 2014.
According to NBC News, the Obama administration knew in July 2010 that more than 40 percent to 67 percent of people in the individual market would likely not be able to keep their existing policies.
Health policy consultant Robert Laszewski estimated 80 percent of individual insurance buyers would have to find new policies.

In fact, in November 2013, Obama issued an apology to those who lost their health insurance to Obamacare regulations.

The insurance we bought to replace our old plan cost more and covered less of what we actually needed but, by God, if the miracle birth ever happened we’d have maternity care.

Apple Plays Scrooge with ‘A Charlie Brown Christmas’

By Ekosj

| October 22, 2020

Apple is evil.

Charles Schultz’s iconic seasonal television “Peanuts” specials will not air on broadcast TV this year for the first time since 1965. And Apple is to blame. They announced that since Apple TV+ acquired exclusive rights to the entire library of Charles Schulz’s animated specials, the holiday trio of “It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown,” “A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving,” and “A Charlie Brown Christmas” will only be available on Apple TV.

Apple is especially tone-deaf since the central theme of “A Charlie Brown Christmas” is the misguided commercialization of Christmas. To quote from the character Lucy, “You’ve been dumb before … but this time you really did it.” Is there nothing good in America that big tech won’t despoil?

Apple should actually watch the Christmas episode to hear Linus tell them what Christmas is really all about:

.

Thank Goodness Progressives Are Tolerant and Forgiving

By Ekosj

| October 10, 2020

“So, let us brace ourselves, the task is two-fold: the terrorist Trump must be defeated, must be destroyed, must be devoured at the ballot box, and then he, and his enablers, and his supporters, and his collaborators, and the Mike Lees and the William Barrs, and Sean Hannitys, and the Mike Pences, and the Rudy Gullianis and the Kyle Rittenhouses and the Amy Coney Barretts must be prosecuted and convicted and removed from our society while we try to rebuild it and to rebuild the world Trump has destroyed by turning it over to a virus.” — Keith Olbermann

The current crop of Progressives is genuinely frightening. ‘Cancel culture’ is only the beginning. Like their CCP mentors, if they come to power they’ll consolidate control of society through big tech and ‘social credit’ coupled with prosecutions for ‘violent hate speech’ — remember, speech is violence. The pandemic has provided the precedent for authoritarian government in the name of a public health emergency. And can there be a greater emergency than the ‘existential threat’ of climate change?

Any Constitutional challenges to this process will be quashed by the newly expanded Progressive Supreme Court. I honestly believe I have an excellent chance of spending my final days confined to a ‘mental health facility’, heavily sedated, for the crime of believing in objective reality, individual liberty, personal responsibility, and limited government.

Bob Gibson, Rest in Peace

By Ekosj

| October 4, 2020

On October 1, Baseball Hall of Fame pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals, Bob Gibson, passed away. He was 84. It was also 52 years to the day that Gibson struck out 17 batters in Game 1 of the 1968 World Series. It is a postseason record that still stands.

Gibson’s 1968 season with the Cardinals was absolutely unbelievable:

From June 6, 1968 through July 30, 1968, Gibson made 11 starts.
He went 11-0, pitched 11 complete games, threw EIGHT shutouts, and in the 3 non-shutouts he allowed a single run in each (that’s an ERA of 0.27 over those 11 games).
In 99 IP, over that span he allowed 56 hits, 13 walks, and plunked 3 batters. Opponents posted a .390 OPS, and hit zero home runs.
I honestly doubt another pitcher will have a stretch of 10 or more consecutive starts that good again, ever.

I was texting with my son about Gibson. He asked if I watched that 1968 Game 1. I told him I was in elementary school. I tucked a transistor radio into my jacket. Ran the cord to the earpiece up the sleeve. And spent the afternoon with my head rested on my hand so I could have the earpiece in and listen to the game. He asked if I’d like to see it. “Wish I could.” He sent me the following link.

It’s the game in its entirety! Who knew?!

On YouTube, MLB Vault has thousands of games available. This afternoon, I watched Gibson at the top of his game pitch in the World Series. Cards vs. Tigers. No politics. No SJWs. No kneeling. Just the joy of baseball.

Thank you, Bob Gibson. Rest In Peace. If in the pick-up game in heaven, God leans out over the plate to get the good wood on that Gibson pitch on the outside corner… God had better watch out. Gibby will be pitching him inside off the plate.

Corporate Response to Cancel Culture – Where We Are Now…

By Ekosj

| September 19, 2020

… and why we are doomed.

What follows is from the point of view of a marketing professional. It’s an article giving advice to brands that have been “canceled.” How to respond. How to stay out of trouble.

The underlying assumptions are frightening. It is taken as a given that association with Trump in particular, any Republican in general, and any viewpoint that is not woke-ist is at best “a lapse in judgment” and probably “a colossal error.”

One of the prime examples cited:

For US fitness brands Soul Cycle and Equinox, the issue was party politics – with model Chrissy Teigen urging her fans to cancel their memberships after learning that owner Stephen Ross was hosting a Donald Trump fundraiser.

The marketing/PR advice:

Some of these lapses in judgement require a fundamental change in corporate culture from the roots up …
“The core principles for managing this remain the same though,” he says. “At a very basic level these are: apologise where you can, try to get ahead of the story by acting quickly and then learn from your mistakes once the crisis is over.
The biggest issue for me in crisis situations has been when clients won’t acknowledge that they have made a colossal error,” she reveals. “They want me to find a way to calm down the comments on Twitter, as opposed to taking responsibility.
“Coming up with a bogus platitude such as ‘that Republican investor is rarely involved in the day-today business’ is just insulting to those you buy into your brand. Apologise, be specific in where you went wrong.

This is the Professional PR and marketing advice corporations are getting. It is essentially — cave-in to the mob immediately. And the underlying assumption is chilling: that so much as having a Republican investor is something to apologise for and needing correction.

Digital media, search, and social media have become the new commanding heights of the economy and society. Those critical points are controlled by the Left’s woke activists. The marketing and PR people recognise this and advise their clients accordingly. Small wonder that businesses react as they do. But it spells bad news for the rest of us. There is no counterbalancing force that I can see. Without that, this is only going to get worse. Much worse.

August Group Writing – Reel Tears

By Ekosj

| August 30, 2020

Crying at the Movies

Field of Dreams. Ok, I know. It’s a summer cliche. And it’s hokey. And kind’a dated. But I must have watched it a hundred times. At least three times in the theatre when it came out. And if I come across it on TV … I’m watching it. Even if it’s already somewhere in the middle; 10 seconds and I’m hooked. And what’s worse, I cry at the end every time. Every time, guaranteed. I’m a sucker for that scene near the end where Kevin Costner’s character is having a catch with his back-from-the-great-beyond Dad. I’m tearing up now just writing about it.

The film came out in 1989 and my own Dad had passed away a few years before. I recall as a kid playing catch with him. In an instant, I’m in my childhood backyard after diner. The satisfying “pop” of the ball hitting the glove. The smell of the leather. The feel of the laces of the ball under your fingers. No need for conversation. Just father and son joined together by the simple acts of throw and catch.

Sometimes, my great-Uncle Joe would come around. He was ancient of days and had a baseball history. The story was that as a youth, in the 19teens or 1920s, he’d been a local baseball talent of note. An infielder. It seems he’d had some tenuous attachment to the Yankee’s minor league system. But even in those days, when big-league players did some serious drinking, he managed to drink himself out of baseball, but he still knew the game and he still had an arm. I mostly remember him talking footwork. “Baseball looks like a game you play with your hands. But you really play with your feet … and your head.” “You can’t make a good throw thisa’way if your feet are lined up thata’way”. I don’t know if any of it was true or not. But at 10 or 11 years old it sounded like genius.

Those were the memories that came flooding back with the tears when I saw the film in ‘89. I thought I understood how the Kevin Costner character would feel … to have that chance again. And they well up every time I see the film.

But now, as an old guy with a grown son of my own, I have a new slant on things. I now have an understanding that same scene from the point of view of the Dad. My son is 30 and his career has taken him to the opposite coast. We used to play catch all the time. Out on the street in front of our house we had painted marks 60 feet 6 inches apart. He learned the basics of pitching out there. He might have got a bit of the baseball gene from his great great uncle. I remember when he was a high school pitcher. We were having a catch and he asserted that he had learned to throw a cut-fastball. Thrown well, a right hander’s cutter will, at the last moment, dart in on a left-handed batter. Naively, I said, “Show me.” He threw one. It didn’t do much. I could tell he was holding back. “C’mon, let me see the good one!” File that under – Be careful what you wish for. He threw me the good one. I never got leather on it. It darted past my glove and hit me square in the right pectoral. Low-80’s fastball right in the chest…I went down like I was pole-axed. Yep. He’d learned to throw a cutter. After I convinced him he didn’t need to take me to the Emergency Room we went to the sporting goods store and I bought catcher’s gear. Anyway, those days are gone. I miss them terribly. Though I still keep two gloves and a ball out in the garage so that when he visits we can go outside and have a catch. And we do.

So, yeah … I cry at Field of Dreams. Every Time.

For Open Border-ers, It’s Time To Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

By Ekosj

| December 29, 2018

This is USCIS Form I-864 – Affidavit of Support

It is a legally binding agreement to be financially responsible for the immigrant named on the form. Print out some or get an e-version to distribute to those who think immigration should be a free-for-all. They want ’em? They can have ’em … but they’re on the hook to support ’em!

It’ll be interesting to see just how fast the conversation changes. There will probably be many great Ralph Kramden impersonations …. “Hummana hummana hummana.”

(Technically, the form is only for the sponsoring relative of the prospective immigrant or an unrelated co-sponsor … but I don’t think that will reduce the hilarity.)

Thursday’s Snow Crippled NYC and NJ

By Ekosj

| November 17, 2018

We had six inches of snow Thursday. That was the official total in Central Park. Six inches. But it was enough to bring chaos to NYC and NJ. Thankfully, I was working from home but some of my colleagues who left Brooklyn at about 3 PM didn’t get home to NJ until after 11. Major roads, bridges, and transit hubs were just plain closed for hours. That includes the George Washington Bridge and the Port Authority bus terminal.

My neighbor’s usual 11-minute drive home took two hours. Apparently the brain trust of Andrew Cuomo, Bill DiBlasio, and NJ’s newly elected Governor, Dropkick Murphy, couldn’t get the roads cleared or the trains and buses running.

And these are the guys who want to take over healthcare. Saints preserve us.

The Truth and Nothing But the Truth. What About the Whole Truth?

By Ekosj

| November 8, 2018

We will read lots of coverage about the horrific shooting last night in California. But let me call your attention to another shooting last night and the news coverage surrounding it. This one took place a few blocks from where I work in bustling downtown Brooklyn NYC. At a Target store in a downtown shopping center. One dead. The coverage is almost uniform…

This from the NYPost, not known for pulling their punches…

A man was shot and killed inside a Target store at a shopping mall in downtown Brooklyn late Wednesday night, police said.
The 25-year-old, who was not immediately identified, was blasted at least once in the chest inside the Target on the second floor of City Point Mall at about 11:35 p.m., cops said.
He was rushed to Brooklyn Hospital Center and pronounced dead, authorities said.
Police arrested a 27-year-old man at the scene, but it’s unclear if he was the shooter, cops said. Charges against him were pending early Thursday morning.

Story after story all the same. Man shot dead. Target store Brooklyn. One arrested.

But one outlet has a richer, more detailed version of what actually happened …

This from the local NBC affiliate …

A man being chased by a group of men armed with a machete shot and killed another man inside a Brooklyn target minutes before the store was set to close, police say.
The fury unfolded at the store’s location at City Point, a multi-use shopping center on Albee Square in Downtown Brooklyn, around 11:30 p.m., when the alleged gunman stormed inside as he was being chased by at least four men he had just gotten into a dispute with, according to the NYPD.
The victim, 25-year-old-year-old Carlton Spencer, tried to approach the shooter from the side when the gunman turned to the would-be attacker and shot him once in the chest, said police, who added the victim was unarmed
The other three men in the group fled the area, but were quickly taken into custody, police said. The shooter was also taken into custody; their names have not yet been released.
Spencer was rushed to an area hospital, but was unable to be saved. Police said he had a criminal history, with his most recent arrest happening just days ago.

Somehow, the shooter being chased off the street and into the store by a group of machete-wielding men failed to make it into the other versions of the story? Nobody, on the cusp of the busy holiday shopping season, wanted to put that detail into the story; I guess. Bad enough it took place four or five blocks from the Barclays Center and the new multi-bazillion dollar Apple Store and luxury apartment development. No need to scare the shoppers with images of machete-armed groups on the street.

Or maybe it’s because Mayor DiBlasio and Governor Cuomo just got done telling us in innumerable ads that this week was about who we are as NYers … our soul and character. And the juxtaposition of armed gangs in the street with the “soul and character of NYers” is uncomfortable. Whatever the reason, important facts were scrubbed from the most versions of the news.

Keep this in mind as you read coverage of other events. They try not to lie outright. They’ll usually tell you things that are true … just not the whole truth.

Median Household Income. The Truth. Nothing But the Truth. The Whole Truth. And the Statistics

By Ekosj

| September 13, 2018

There is a great vignette in the book Moneyball, illustrating the gulf between what actually happens on a baseball field and what the statistics reflect. Imagine the following situation…

Two outs. Runner on third. The pitcher throws his best pitch, fools the batter who hits a lazy fly ball towards right-center field. But the right fielder is a guy like Albert Belle — all bat, no range, no glove. The Belle-ish outfielder can’t get there and the lazy fly ball drops in for a clean single and the runner scores from third.

Now, what really happened? The pitcher succeeded. He made his pitch and got the lazy fly ball he wanted. The batter failed. His job was to hit the ball hard and he didn’t. He got fooled and hit what should have been an easy fly ball. The outfielder failed. His lack of range and bad jump on the ball caused the hit and is responsible for the run scored. The front office who decided that the bad defense was a good trade off for the big bat might be guilty too.

But what do the statistics record? The Batter gets rewarded with a hit, and with a run batted in. The Pitcher gets saddled with giving up a hit and an earned run. The front office and the outfielder get off scot-free.

This was brought to mind by James Pethokoukis’ recent post about Median Household Earnings. Does this statistic always prove illuminating? Does it give us clear picture of what is really happening? Or is there a bad outfielder getting off scot-free in there somewhere? Let’s do some thought experiments and see what can happen.

Lets begin by constructing a simple economy with five households. Here they are with their Household Earnings:

100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000

Ok. Median Household Earning is $60,000 and the gap between the top and bottom households is $80,000. Remember, this is Household Earnings.

Let’s now suppose that two things change. A). Everybody gets a 10% raise. B). Household 3, a husband and wife each earning $30,000, gets divorced. What does our income distribution look like now? Remember … from an earnings perspective, everybody is better off. They all got a 10% raise.

110,000
88,000
44,000
33,000
33,000
22,000

Old Household #3 is now two separate households — 4 and 5 — each earning 33,000. But even though everybody got a 10% raise, Median Household Income went down. Median Household Income has now plummeted to $38,500! And the gap between the top and bottom households has grown to $88,000. The statistics would have you believe that things are on an alarming downward trend.

Let’s go back to the start again and try something else. We started here…

100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000

Now suppose that things change. But what happens is that times are hard, no one gets a raise. In fact, Household #5 — the recently graduated from college child of Household #4 gets their hours cut to part-time. They now only earn $10,000. They can’t afford their apartment and move back with the parents. What does this new income distribution look like?

100,000
80,000
60,000
50,000

Ok. New Median Household Income has now grown to $70,000 and the gap between the top and bottom households has shrunk to $50,000. The statistics would have you believe things are going swimmingly!

Median Household Income statistics really have two distinct variables embedded in them — income and what we call a Household. Because we can’t tell what is going on with the Household composition, the statistic is kind of useless.

Even Bill DiBlasio and Andrew Cuomo Can’t Ruin This

By Ekosj

| August 22, 2018

All the bad things about waking up while it’s still dark to commute to NYC are every bit as bad as you’d expect. But sometimes the morning commute is just spectacular. The pics don’t do this morning justice. Have a great day!

1973: What Happened?

By Ekosj

| August 17, 2018

Some recent posts about Chelsea Clinton’s reference to 1973 brings me back to a remarkable chart. Average real wages vs labor productivity. Since the ’40s, real wage growth was in lockstep with productivity growth. Then something changed dramatically in 1973. Starting then and ever since, real wage growth has disconnected from productivity growth.

What happened in 1973? What paradigm shifted under our feet? And it is a paradigm shift. The break from what went before is crisp and clear. But what caused it? Women entering the workforce? The dawn of computers and automation? Energy shocks? What?

Looking for ideas.

June Jobs Report: May the Labor Force Be With You

By Ekosj

| July 6, 2018

The BLS Jobs Report is out and contains the most hopeful underlying number we have seen in a long, long time. The Labor Force increased by 601,000. Those Not In the Labor Force decreased by 413,000.

Those not in the Labor Force has been especially troubling. They are not working and not looking for work. Essentially they have given up or are working in the underground economy. And that number has been climbing all through the Obama years. But the first thing that happens when things really start to improve in the economy is that attitudes change. And those who have given up now see hope and re-enter the Labor Force. They may not have found a job yet, but they are now looking.

One thing this does, however, is bump up the unemployment rate, and we see that in this month’s report.

But it is a hopeful sign. It is exactly the reverse of the Obama era when the reductions in the unemployment rate were driven by a smaller and smaller Labor Force. This increase in the Labor Force means people think things are looking up. Increasing wages and job prospects have induced people to return to the Labor Force.

Custer’s First Last Stand

By Ekosj

| June 26, 2018

June 25, 1876. The Battle of Little Bighorn. Custer’s Last Stand. Everybody knows the story. But not everyone knows that 12 years earlier — almost to the day — Custer had his first Last Stand. On June 11, 1864, “the Boy General” and the Michigan brigade of cavalry almost got the chop in a place called Trevillian Station Virginia at the hands of Custer’s West Point roommate and then Confederate Brigadier General Tom Rosser.

After weeks of fighting, Union General Ulysses Grant was still hemmed in on The Peninsula, like McClellan before him. He needed to bust out. Grant planned to slip the Union army away from Lee and steal a march towards Petersburg before Lee even knew he was gone. To do this, he needed to distract Lee.

Grant and his cavalry commander, General Phil Sheridan, planned one of the largest Cavalry raids of the war, deep into Virginia, to destroy the Virginia Central Railroad. This would cut Lee’s army off from its supply larder in the Shenandoah Valley and provide cover for Grant’s move to Petersburg.

Two Union cavalry divisions, including Custer’s brigade of Michigan Wolverines, headed for the Virginia Central railroad at Trevilian Station. They knew they were being pursued by Rebel Cavalry. It’s unclear if they knew that the Confederates had beaten them to the town. The Union plan was for three brigades to enter the town on the morning of 11 June. Merritt’s and Devon’s brigades were to move along the main road, Custer’s along a separate, ridgeline track.

Along the main road, Merritt and Devin ran into the center of the Confederate formation and the largest cavalry-only battle of the war erupted. On the ridgeline track, Custer brushed aside some troops on the Confederate flank and entered Trevillian Station virtually unmolested. There, they found the town and station unguarded except for the entire Confederate supply wagon train. Falling into Custer’s hands were several hundred prisoners, 1,500 horses, a stand of colors, six caissons, 40 ambulances, and 50 army wagons. What a prize. But scooping it up and holding on to it were two different things.

It didn’t take long for Confederate General Wade Hampton to learn that there were Yankees at the station and that his wagons were taken. He commanded Tom Rosser’s Laurel Brigade to get back to Trevillian Station, oust the Yankees, and recover the wagons.

For his part, Rosser hadn’t waited for orders. Hearing the hubbub behind him, he faced his brigade about and hurried back to the station. He found Custer in the process of consolidating his winnings. He also found that Custer hadn’t set pickets on the roads and so had no idea that Rosser was about to land on him with both feet.

Rosser’s Laurel Brigade hit the Yankees at the gallop, sabers drawn. In the first rush, they swept away half of the 5th Michigan regiment and recovered most of the wagons. Only hard-hitting rapid fire from some Michigan horse artillery kept the Laurels from rolling up most of Custer’s brigade. But the Wolverines rallied, Custer formed them into defensive positions and they fought hard. More Rebel cavalry began to arrive and soon the defensive positions became an all-around perimeter. Custer was surrounded and badly outnumbered. Only the timely arrival of three additional Union brigades prevented total destruction. Arriving in the traditional nick of time, the additional Union cavalry managed to cut open an escape route and rescue Custer and his command. Custer’s luck.

Twelve years later, at Little Bighorn, there would be no reinforcements to save Custer a second time.

Fight for 15: The Results Are Coming In

By Ekosj

| June 7, 2018

The Daily Wire has a nice article with some actual data about the real results of raising the minimum wage. Liberals, we hate to say “we told you so” … but … we told you so.

Case 1: In 2014, Minnesota began a series of minimum wage increases. Wisconsin didn’t. “From 2010-2014 fast food employment grew at the same rate in MN and WI. Since 2014 it’s grown 4.1 percentage points more in WI.”

Case 2: Seattle’s recent minimum wage increase. “Using a variety of methods to analyze employment in all sectors paying below a specified real hourly wage rate, we conclude that the second wage increase to $13 reduced hours worked in low-wage jobs by 6-7 percent, while hourly wages in such jobs increased by 3 percent.”

I’m reminded of the old saw, “If you had a job, the Depression wasn’t so bad.”

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Ekosj

@ekosj