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Does Iowa Have Too Much Clout? Yes, So Here’s a Fix
A group of Republican presidential aspirants gathered in Iowa over the weekend, prompting two rather predictable outcomes.
1) The media choosing winners and losers. In the thumbs-up category, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. His argument for smaller government got high marks from Rush Limbaugh. Among the more unfortunate performers: former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, whose free-association speech bordered on self-parody.
2) The media griping about Iowa as a king-maker. For this, we turn to The Washington Post and “The Fix”. Here, you’ll find eight reasons why Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush were wise to skip the cattle call. And: why Iowa could be a no-win situation for Republicans in this election. Then again, when isn’t it? Except for George W. Bush, the GOP road from the caucuses to the Oval Office is a path rarely traveled (even Ronald Reagan lost the vote there in 1980).
Count me in the camp of those who find Iowa as complicating Republicans’ presidential fortunes with the over-emphasis on social conservatism.
So here’s my fix: shake up the primary schedule.
Four years ago, I suggested in this post that the GOP go about choosing a nominee the way the National Basketball Association selects its rookie players: hold a lottery and randomly select states to hold primaries every Tuesday, for six weeks.
Under my plan, it’d be a mix of one “mega” state (at least 18 electoral votes), three mid-size states (a minimum of 10 electoral votes), three smaller states (four to nine electoral votes), plus one very small state (three electoral votes). On the seventh Tuesday, it’d be one “mega” state, two mid-sized states and one small state doing the voting.
(By the way, there’d be an element of fairness to all of this: just as there’s a firewall in the NBA lottery that prevents the team with the worst record from finishing any worse than fourth in the draft, this political lottery could guarantee that the sixth- and seventh-week states would finish no lower than, say, the fourth week in the next election.)
Back in 2011, I was in a more forgiving mood and willing to let Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina keep their places at the front of the line. Moving beyond 2016, I’d either: (a) toss them into the same lottery pool as the other states or (b) merge them all into one day, thus giving the field more leeway as to where to crack the race (Walker could have his day in Iowa, as might Romney in New Hampshire, while someone like former Texas Gov. Rick Perry could pull off a surprise in South Carolina).
Is this a solution the rank-and-file GOP could buy into? Of course not. New Hampshire will fight to the death to retain its “first in the nation” primary status. And there’s always a state that dares to buck the system (and the wrath of the RNC) by moving up its primary date.
Still, it’s fun to dream. And keep this reform proposal in mind four years from now, when another group of presidential aspirants are gathering in Iowa or New Hampshire, causing the media to freak out over “freak shows” and damaged-goods hopefuls.
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Honestly, I’d like to see the first primary move to a state that is often closely contested. It is a better test to have the race in a state where Republicans are going to actually compete than to start in a state where Republicans almost always lose (or almost always win).
And frankly, if people are going to be campaigning for nearly a year, it doesn’t have to be a very small state. In a year, you can get to every corner of Florida or Ohio if you try. This is, after all, the age of automobiles and airplanes.
If I remember correctly a state that arranged its vote early was denied a portion of its delegates in 2012.
I also believe that if Iowa thought it was about to lose its pre-eminence, it would move its voting timetable to an earlier date without regard for what the party wants.
I love this idea. But I don’t think it needs to be “mega states” and “small states” to start. I say, let ’em be random for the first few weeks. Then take a few weeks off for debates and rethinks and voters to zero in.
Then have another set of lotteries.
This could be just what American politics needs. Because, as you say, right now it’s totally canned.
That is a really good idea Bill. It seems like the pressure is starting to build to change up the process after the 2012 cycle.
New Hampshire is one out of 50. They can be pushed aside, just like New Mexico has been.
Great idea. I believe first step is making the argument that this is merely a 25 year “tradition.” The first Iowa Straw poll was help in 1979- its not like this is an amendment to the constitution.
Iowa always being first is foolish from any perspective other than “well, because…”
We have 10% ethanol in our gasoline, high tariffs on cane sugar, and corn syrup, or solids, or starch, or meal (or all four) in almost every food product because every four years presidential hopefuls have to go to Iowa and osculate the posteriors of the corn farmers.
Iowa will conduct it’s 2020 caucus in 2017 if that’s what it takes to maintain their “first” position.
Then there’s New Hampshire.
Reforming that process will require courage on the part of the national party establishments, which means it’s unlikely to happen any time this side of the heat death of the universe.
Nick Stuart: #8 “Reforming that [Republican nominating] process will require courage on the part of the national party establishments, which means it’s unlikely to happen any time this side of the heat death of the universe.”
Another candidate for “the great quip” at the end of the year.