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Historical Roads Not Taken
I’ve never been a big fan of the “alternative history” genre of fiction, but I do sometimes find myself fascinated by moments in history when things could very easily have gone differently. I’m not talking here about big questions like “what if the South had won the Civil War?” I’m talking about those moments when some small, even trivial, event has disproportionately enormous repercussions that no one could have predicted. Where it’s quite easy to imagine that things might have been otherwise.
Of course, such moments happen all the time; most of them we will never know about. We’ll never know about the what-ifs that didn’t happen. But there are a few cases I can think of where we can see — in retrospect — how big things can be traced back to these coin-flip moments.
My favorite example is an obvious one: the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which very nearly didn’t happen. Dan Carlin, in his excellent Hardcore History podcast, talks about how this is one of those moments where it almost seems as if Fate intervened to make sure history went a certain way. The initial attempt to assassinate the archduke failed, and his plans for the day were then unpredictably changed; it was only by chance that his motorcade made a wrong turn and passed the spot where Gavrilo Princip was waiting. And of course Princip might have missed, or his shot might have proved nonlethal. But that single .380-caliber bullet struck the archduke’s jugular vein and defined the history of the rest of the Twentieth Century (and beyond).
Here’s another one, more speculative but fun to think about. You’ve probably heard the story of Grace Bedell, a little girl who in 1860 wrote a letter to Abraham Lincoln encouraging him to grow a beard. “All the ladies like whiskers,” she wrote, “and they would tease their husbands to vote for you and then you would be President.” Now, it’s likely that matters more important than facial hair dictated the outcome of that election, but marketing does make a difference. Is it possible that Lincoln’s beard really did induce women to “tease their husbands” to vote for him? Could it be that Grace Bedell gave Lincoln advice that won the election for him, triggering the secession crisis and dictating the course of the Civil War? (Probably not, but it’s fun to think about.)
So here’s the part where I inevitably ask: what are your favorite what-if moments in history? Again, I’m not talking about the big what-ifs; I’m talking about the tiny butterfly-effect moments that turned out to change history in big ways.
“DC-1914-27-d-Sarajevo-cropped” by Achille Beltrame – Cropped version of File:Beltrame Sarajevo.jpg. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons.
Published in History
Considering your name, my vote is
Greeks lose at Salamis. Persians control all of Hellas. No Athenian Empire, no flowering of Art and Science. Classical civilization as we know it dies in it’s cradle. This affects the entire Mediterranean and eventually Rome. Since our Republic was founded on principles of both Rome and Athens……
I’m an Apollo-program fanatic and was familiar with all of the events you described, but I never before considered the what-if you propose. You’re right — I’m not sure anybody realized it, but the whole program was probably hanging in the balance with that mission, and it came close to abort conditions. Aborting two missions in a row, at a time when NASA’s budget (and missions) were being cut, probably would have ended the program.
Of course, the Apollo 13 mission all by itself includes any number of tiny things that, had they gone just slightly differently, could have changed the outcome enormously.
I: Alternate WWII
Hitler decides not to declare war on the US after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Mussolini follows Hitler’s lead. The US directs its war effort solely at Japan and greatly reduces or eliminates Lend-Lease aid to the UK and USSR.
Japan would probably have been defeated 12-18 months sooner. Germany may have been able to defeat the USSR, or at least bring about a stalemate on all fronts.
Without the pressure of the ongoing war, the US development of the A-bomb would have been delayed. Perhaps Germany would have developed its own bomb.
Result: Nazi-dominated Europe.
II. Alternate WWI
My studies in WWI suggest that the failure of the German Schlieffen Plan may have been a failure of nerve. A gap opened between the German 1st and 2nd Armies on the western side of the front, and the French/British counterattacked into that gap. The German commander (Moltke) had a nervous breakdown and the Germans retreated.
As a result, the Germans lost their chance of a decisive encirclement victory.
The Germans had succeeded in such encirclement in both the Franco-Prussian War (1870) and WWII (1940).
If France had been knocked out of WWI in 1914, it seems likely that Germany would have won the war. Italy might not have joined the “Triple Entendre” (i.e. the French-Russian-British side). Russia was much weaker, relative to Germany, in WWI than in WWII.
This is a great topic, and I will keep looking to read the entries.
But the first thing I thought of when I read your invitation was what I think of as one of the most memorable and chilling scenes from The Chronicles of Narnia. In The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, Lucy has an experience she wishes undone. Aslan tells her soberly that once a thing is done, it’s done. One can never go back and see what would have happened if one had chosen differently.
While I love speculation about things like you propose, I have always found that idea Lewis put forth there to be arrestingly profound.
(But keep going, imagining intelligently about things is totally interesting!)
That resonates pretty strongly with me. While speculation like this is fun when you’re thinking about world history, it’s not productive when thinking about one’s own life. I’m not a person who has a lot of regrets, but I’ve occasionally found myself thinking about my past and considering what I could have done differently.
But the problem with that is that you’re comparing a known with an unknown. You can guess how things might have gone had you made a different choice, but you can’t know for sure. And more to the point, the past is gone. It’s far better to spend one’s time figuring out where to go from where you are.
A certain young artillery officer killed at the Siege of Toulon in 1793, instead of just being wounded in the thigh.
It sounds like Crossroads of Destiny.
I’ve got one from the Revolutionary War: had Major Wilkinson had a drink or two less, he might have kept his mouth shut and George Washington might have been out of a job.
Here’s what actually happened:
Enroute to Congress with the official report of Burygone’s surrender to Gates, 20-year-old Wilkinson stays with General Stirling and his staff and gets sloshed. After Stirling nods off, Wilkinson blabs about how Congress is likely to replace Washington with Gates and that General Conway supports such a move. Stirling is informed the next morning and notifies Washington. Washington then wrote to Gates, told him that he knows of the scheme, scared him off, and retained his command.
I like these speculative exercises – I think of them often with regards to my own life, the trivial little decisions I made or accidents that happened which go on to have enormous impacts on my life.
Dropping a notebook led to a disastrous relationship that defined my college experience. Ignoring my advisor and taking a class out of sequence in graduate school led directly to meeting my wife.
Historically though, it’s hard to get much more interesting than the string of events surrounding the Ides of March. At almost any step, Caesar avoids the assassins’ knives. But, of course, he does not, and and the history of the world is forever changed.
The two most obvious ones were about invading Russia; Napoleon and Hitler.
I read one of a series of “What If?” history books (basically the OP’s question answered with research and interviews), and the one that intrigued me is Hitler going after the Arabian oil fields instead of invading Russia. Had he done that, it would probably be a much different world, mein Herr.
Or perhaps Alexander decides to turn his attention west instead of east, maybe even just as a year-long prelude to eastern conquest. I can’t even imagine the consequences.
At the risk of derailing my own thread, I do the same thing (finding such moments in my own life). Sometimes they’re almost terrifying to contemplate, when I realize how close I came to making a choice that would have meant a completely different life. The past sometimes feels precarious, even though we know it can’t be changed.
My example is in 1984, when I was being hired for a summer job at a theme park. I was given the choice of three ride-attendant positions at different locations in the park; I wanted to keep my evenings free, so I chose the only one of the three positions that was on the morning shift. As a result, I met the woman who became my wife. In terms of how it affected the course of my life, it was the single most important decision I ever made, and I gave it almost no thought at all.
It’s a good thing we don’t recognize the import of these moments when they arrive. If we did, we’d be paralyzed with indecision.
Here’s another one, also related to World War I. In his book The Great Influenza, John Barry advances the theory that Woodrow Wilson’s mental capacities were diminished when he came down with the Spanish flu during the negotiations for the Treaty of Versailles. He suggests that, had Wilson not fallen ill, he might have been more successful in negotiating a treaty that was less harsh on Germany. That, in turn, might have prevented World War II.
Not everyone agrees with this theory, but it’s another one that’s sobering to think about. But then, it wouldn’t be the first time that microscopic germs altered the course of human history.
And then there’s this classic from James Thurber:
If Grant had been Drinking at Appomatox
Following the battle of Cannae, with the Roman legions destroyed and many of Rome’s allies switching sides, Hannibal immediately attacks Rome and destroys it.
Carthage, rather than Rome, becomes the dominant power of the ancient world. Subsequent Mediterranean civilization develops around North Africa. Carthage makes trading alliances with Greece and Palestine, rather than seeking conquest. Absent the impetus of Roman conquests, Greek and Jewish civilizations remain localized. Christianity never emerges. Western Europe is a backwater. After that, my imagination fails me.
The way I read it, Wilson was the one who wanted to impose harsh terms on Germany in the first place. On that topic, how about no Zimmerman telegram?
1: What if the aircraft carriers had been in port on December 7th 1941?
2: What if the Russians had been at the UN to veto the Korean War resolution.
3: What if Bobby Kennedy hadn’t left the California Hotel through the kitchen?
4: What if it had been raining in Dallas and the cover had been on JFKs car?
Alternate car at: Mr. C said he tried calling me for a date twice before he got me on on the 3rd try. He got my dumb younger brother, “sis, some guy called for you.” “who called?” “I don’t know, just some guy.” Mr. C said if I hadn’t answered the 3rd try, he’d have given up.
Who knows? If I hadn’t answered, I might not be here on Ricochet. The horror!
What if the Watergate burglars hadn’t re-taped the door locks?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watergate_scandal
Shortly after midnight on June 17, 1972, Frank Wills, a security guard at the Watergate Complex, noticed tape covering the latches on some of the doors in the complex leading from the underground parking garage to several offices (allowing the doors to close but remain unlocked). He removed the tape, and thought nothing of it. He returned an hour later, and having discovered that someone had retaped the locks, Wills called the police. Five men were discovered and arrested inside the DNC office
If they don’t get caught, Nixon serves out his term, the Dems don’t sweep the House in 1974, Viet Nam ends differently, we don’t get the killing fields and the boat people, no Jimmy Carter…
It occurs to me that the world of science is probably full of these kinds of chance discoveries, and in some cases those discoveries doubtless influenced history in big ways.
The first example that comes to mind is Alexander Fleming’s accidental discovery of penicillin. It’s impossible to catalog how many ways history was probably changed by this discovery, when you consider how many individuals’ lives were ultimately affected. Antibiotics would surely have been discovered eventually anyway, but even a delay of a few years might have resulted in a completely different world.
As Isaac Asimov said, “The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not ‘Eureka!’ but ‘That’s funny.'”
The 1942 German summer offensive in Russia -Case Blue- culminated in the crushing German defeat at Stalingrad.
But it might not have been so.
The original plan called for the German forces to advance in two parallel columns until reaching the Volga at Stalingrad. Stalingrad was to be neutralized, not necessarily captured. At that point the German forces would be split, with one Army Group attacking south to capture the Caucuses oil fields.
The operation was initially a dramatic success. The Russians believed that the goal of the German offensive was a drive on Moscow from the south and kept the bulk of their forces near Moscow. As the Russian formations facing the German attack were quickly destroyed or fleeing with Germans in hot pursuit, Stalin decided to ABANDON Stalingrad and mount a defense on the east bank of the Volga.
On the German side, things were going so well that Hitler decided to move up the timetable. Instead of advancing in parallel to the Volga until Stalingrad was neutralized, and only then heading south, Hitler decided to pursue both goals simultaneously.
While this weakened the thrust aimed at Stalingrad, it would have been a moot point. Recall, Stalin had already decided not to defend Stalingrad. However, this wasn’t the end of Hitler’s improvisation.
Hitler decided that the forces heading South needed additional armored support. He decided to add Fourth Panzer Army – which was part of the NORTHERN column- to the Army Group heading South. He basically ordered Fourth Panzer Army to make a right turn into the parth of the formations on their right….like cutting across several lanes of traffic on the highway at rush hour!
The result was a traffic jam of epic proportions! It stopped the German advance for a week as scrambled units tried to creep along an inadequate road net.
This delay allowed fleeing Russian units time to breathe and most importantly gave Stalin time to reconsider. Seeing the German movement, he correctly decided they were not aiming for Moscow and most importantly, he decided to defend Stalingrad.
But for the traffic jam of Hitler’s own creation, WWII could have had a very different outome in the Eastern Front.
How George Armstrong Custer won two Super Bowls for the New England Patriots.
When the 7th Cavalry rode out to their destiny at Little Big Horn, Custer took along the Regimental Band. After a few days, Custer decided he needed their horses more than their instruments and left the Band members behind. Thus the Band members were spared.
The Band was lead by an Italian immigrant named Felix Vinatieri. If the Vinatieri name sounds familiar to football fans its because Felix Vinatieri was the great great (not sure how many greats go in here) grandfather of one time New England Patriot’s field goal kicker Adam Vinatieri!!!
If my memory is correct, both Eisenhower and Patton were together on an army exercise before WWII. Watching a tank pulling another tank with the steel cable, the cable snapped and whipped around, cutting brush just feet in front of the both of them. What would WWII have looked like if both Generals had been killed in this incident?
Another WWII thought piece: On D-Day, General Rommel was driving back to his home for his wife’s birthday. If he was still at his HQ at the Atlantic wall, I believe he could have forced the SS tank units to confront the troops on the beaches and kicked the allies back into the Atlantic and prolonged the war for at least another year.
Clinton gets impeached (convicted), Gore is president on Sept 11, 2001.
You don’t need Clinton convicted for that. A few hanging chads going the other way in Florida, or one changed vote on the Supreme Court, and Gore would have gotten the White House.
Ross Perot does not run in 1992:
After this there are a lot of branching paths, the scariest of which is Jerry Brown (He came in second to Clinton in 92) winning in 96, getting reelected in 2000, and us having to depend on President Moonbeam to address 9/11.
What if Broward and Palm Beach counties hadn’t used butterfly-style ballots in the 2000 election?
The evening of August 28th, 1776 was a dreary one. Starting at about 2:00 in the afternoon, a warm and misty rain had blanketed New York and the thousands of Yankee and British soldiers dug in on Brooklyn Heights. Thinking quickly, General George Washington and his staff saw a perfect opportunity to extract their bedraggled and panicky army from the slowly-tightening noose General Howe’s redcoats were drawing around them. They scraped up every flat-bottomed barge and small boat they could find, and at around midnight began to pull the Continental Army back across the East River to the safety of Manhattan. For several hours the boats scuttled back and forth, using the mist to hide from the lurking Royal Navy warships. It looked like the gambit was working.
Unfortunately, at about 2:00 am, the rain began to slacken. A brisk ocean breeze picked up, driving the mist and cloud-cover inland. The boatmen redoubled their pace, but it was no use. By 3:00, with only a third of the American militiamen and none of their artillery pieces evacuated, the night was crystal clear. Despite strict orders against making any noise whatsoever and oars muffled with spare cloaks, one of the barges was spotted by a night-watchman aboard the frigate HMS Bellerophon. Alarms were sounded, signal guns were fired, and within the hour over half of the Continental Army as well as its commander were prisoners of King George III.
The day after Christmas 2007 a member of Hillary’s opposition research team drops five anonymous brown envelopes in a public mailbox in Chicago. They are addressed to the major TV networks and have a DVD of Jeremiah Wright’s “sermon” on the Sunday following 9/11.
The footage mysteriously disappears. To this day no one at any of the networks has any memory of such a delivery.