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Hands off the Nomination Process
I believe the prediction markets are correct and that the Democrats are more likely than not to win the presidency again this year. This has less to do with the Democrat’s talent than is has to do with the Republican brand’s failure to sell in national elections.
Republicans and Democrats have opposite problems this round: they’re running on the fumes from two generations ago; we’re too young and untried. Our talent was especially too young the last two times around and, this time, they are like those college athletes who “go pro” a year too soon. Our deep bench looked good from a distance but reality shows that our side is still very green. And what about the governors? My guess is the governor model of nominee sourcing has become too parochial. What appeals in Wisconsin, New Jersey, or Texas may not generalize to the rest of the country. But despite all this — and the likelihood that we’ll miss one of our best chances to meaningful strike down Obamacare– I’d rather be in our position than theirs.
As for our nomination process, the results so far are more a symptom than a cause of the Republican’s woes. Despite our two-party system, we really are a set of two multi-party coalitions. And new “parties” are spontaneously created without name or explicit organization. The Trump voters were always there and they aren’t any smarter or dumber than they were in the past; what’s new is the they had someone to coalesce around. If we’re going to have any hope of healing the coalitions’ wounds without Trump, he has to be beaten legitimately.
Marco Rubio has several problems. One is that he really is a sweet spot candidate. Practically, he’s as conservative as Cruz (despite the oft chastised “Gang of Eight” thing) and comes off as much more moderate than his beliefs and history actually show. This would normally be a huge advantage except he’s flanked on his left by two people who are taking all the moderate and liberal Republican votes. The solution for many is for the moderates to preemptively bow out. It’s an interesting road to the nomination that essentially relies on having RINOs vote for a candidate much more conservative than them.
But Rubio hasn’t earned that privilege! Before New Hampshire, he was attacked and he badly misjudged how to defend himself. He deserves to pay for that, and — if his fans are right about him — now’s the time to show that he can learn from mistakes and improve. By staying in, Gov. Kasich and Jeb Bush are (ironically and unwittingly) doing the party and Rubio a favor. Rubio doesn’t deserve the nomination just because his supporters are pretty sure he can and will do better. There will be no second chances in the general. If Rubio fans want to beat Trump and perhaps Hillary, he has to do it fair and square.
For all its terrible timing, I’d wager that the current apex of the GOP civil war will be unimaginably beneficial in the long run. We have untold amounts of young talent percolating through out massive structural domination of local and state elections and national party should better learn how to leverage that. From time to time, however, success will require a chaotic and spontaneous reconfiguration, and maybe a botched election or two. I imagine that, in the end, the party won’t look too terribly different than it did before, but we will be moving forward from a position of newfound strength. Meanwhile the Democrats are left to fight with a series of tired, septuagenarians champions and an existential crisis of their own.
Published in General
It doesn’t work that way. States, civilizations, get rich, expand then centralize and the rent seekers bend the system toward more centralization their control of which grows, and they get stronger as the rest of the nation gets weaker. In time they kill the host. Are there exceptions? Only when the stagnating and declining rich country gets invaded. Attempts to blast away the parasites don’t work. So we wait for the perfect candidate who can beat these superior individuals like Hillary and Sanders, who wouldn’t be close to winning if the system itself hadn’t become so deeply corrupt. We must pick one and it can’t be Trump as he is a symptom of the problem. The fraud will be rampant as that is the only way a corrupt, unattractive, shrill candidate like Hillary could hope to win.
Oh, that nomination process. I thought someone was writing an article about the Hugo Awards.
I was much more optimistic before Saturday.
You write and interesting post and posit a theory worthy of consideration.
I originally believed this election Hillary’s to lose, then changed moods toward Republican success. After watching the last 2 debates I think that optimism misplaced.
I hadn’t thought of it that way. Good point.
I wrote this before Saturday. I didn’t watch, but I have heard what happened. I actually think that debate and the death of Scalia make me more likely to be correct.
You’re putting too much thought into this question.
On average, voters decide late if they are going to vote at all and vote their interests. The Democrats have had the Presidency for eight years and the country has not prospered.
That is going to be the deciding factor in this election.
Sadly, I agree. I know many on Ricochet do not agree with me, but I think Saturday’s performance in general was poor.
If it is any consolation none was more awful than Trump.
And Obama’s approval is not far below 50 in his lame duck year…
Keep in mind. I’m not predicting a definite win for Democrats. They are only about the 57% favorites right now, and I think that lead is tenuous. What I’m saying is the Republican’s best shot is to have a nominee (who is not Trump) who actually forces everyone out around him instead of opening up a path for them. If Rubio comes out with the nomination then I think it’s very likely he will be hardened and battle tested and have the best chance at an upset. Also, it minimizes the bad blood Trump supporters will feel if Trump loses it fair and square and it doesn’t look like the “establishment” put its thumb on the scale.
This isn’t about giving Rubio a privilege, it’s about nominating a very conservative candidate who happens to out poll all other candidates head to head against the democrats.
It’s not about what he gets or deserves. It’s about us making the best possible choice. If Jeb truly believes in the conservative principles he espouses, he would drop in order to see them advance.
If Trump weren’t in the race this would be reasonable.
As it stands, The Donald can win by default because his opposition remains too fractured. The dangers of him winning warrant the ones with no path to the nomination dropping.
Everyone not named Cruz and Rubio should drop.
I often think it is very unlikely. Only a very successful, as in great, president can get his party a third term. The only ones to do that recently would be Reagan and FDR. I guess TR would fall in that category too. Eisenhower (missed by Chicago and Texas), Clinton (by less than 300 Florida vote switchers), and even Nixon (by less than 10,000 Ohio and Hawaii vote switchers) just missed. I think Obama might just miss too, but the key is that he will miss.
It’s very difficult to predict swing states and voter turnout. Some states that used to always be Democrat like West Virginia seem to be the other way now. Could this finally be the year that Iowa, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin break through while states like Virginia or Colorado slip to the other side?
Fatalists have to remember that McCain and Palin were leading before McCain panicked and tried to cancel a debate, as I remember or have been told. Romney would have won the popular vote, if the election was held after the first debate.
No, most are going to vote HRC because of her gender. Just like most voted BHO because of his race. Those will be the ones that swing the election making HRC the new POTUS.
Only if Kasich and Bush end up staying in more than through Nevada, and The Donald is unaffected by his last debate performance. I think Kasich is probably out after SC and Bush won’t have an argument to make is he fails to crack 11% versus a Rubio 20% in two more states. Look, this might not happen, and I’ll probably agree with your point if either of them stay in (and are getting high single digits) after a couple more states. But as it stands now, I don’t think Rubio has sweated it too much for all to be lost, and a little bit of pain is probably doing him some good.
Also, there are simply a lot of Democrats in this country who will vote for whomever they nominate. And Democrats like to vote in general elections so I don’t want to hear anybody opining on how the polls are wrong just like they were wrong in 2014. They were wrong in 2014 because midterm elections are harder to poll, Republicans have a structural advantage, and there were a lot of close races so it went tremendously in our favor with a fairly small error in polling.
Ok then, let’s pack it in we’re done. There will be president Hillary Rodham Clinton. Just cancel all of those other primaries because we’re done.
Why do we do this to ourselves? Concede defeat this early in the process? Do Democrats do that? Someone once told me that one of the reasons I never win at any contest is that I go into it with the notion that I was going to lose, so I usually do. Maybe go in with the notion of winning (and not a deluded sense of optimism but one that is plausible) and perhaps we will win. one of the media’s strategy’s is to demoralize their opposition to make us feel as if there is no hope so we give up and too often we do.
How did you walk away from my post with this? Because I am being realistic and not cheerleading? I cheerlead for Romney and went into a major depression following. So now I look at it with clear eyes and from a detached perspective. I hope Republicans pull it out and Rubio is our next president. I thought, in a way, my post was optimistic. We still have a chance even though our nomination process has gone so badly so far!
You started the post by saying that you believe the prediction markets that the Democrats will win. I believe that it is too early to determine that. There is nothing wrong with looking at the race with clear eyes but my point is it is way to early to determine the outcome. Lots can happen between now and November and we haven’t even determined who the nominee is yet. Best not to completely concede to the Democrats the presidency this early. That is my point.
Editor changed my wording. It originally said (something like) “I believe the prediction markets that the democrats are more likely to win.”
They really only have a slight advantage, but it’s still an advantage.
AHHH!!!! That Does change things. Editors should have kept the original wording.
I don’t even quite understand the point being made in this post, but to the extant it’s a version of losing will be good for the GOP let me say, that’s completely ridiculous. Losing only produces blame-shifting, finger-pointing, more in-fighting, panic, overreaction, despair, and desperate flailing. Losing has no salutary effects, especially when everything should be lined up for victory.
More importantly, beyond the demoralizing chaos it would produce in the Republican Party, it would be utterly devastating to the country and constitutional government. Anyone waxing optimistic or even sanguine about a GOP defeat in the fall is deluding themselves.
Likely, by a fairly smallish margin, to win. That’s not saying the Democrats will win, just that the current situation seems to be favoring the Democrats somewhat (and I happen to agree with that).
Everyone in the prediction markets also knows it’s too early to determine that. Prediction markets don’t attempt to determine anything. They’re just estimating the odds, updated in real time. As new information comes in, the prediction markets will update the odds accordingly.
There is no complete concession. Estimating odds based on the information we have now concedes nothing, especially since we expect the odds to be updated as new information comes in.
Estimating current odds isn’t saying those odds are set in stone – they aren’t. If anything, estimating current odds accurately should help someone figure out the best plan for influencing the odds going forward.
People concern themselves too much with current events. It makes them appear far more consequential than they are. If you look at them from the long term perspective then you realize that many of the things we think are so unbelievably important because they are happening now will be nothing but a footnote to history.
Thank you for this post, Mike. I like that you’re finding reason to hope for better days regardless of November’s outcome. I really appreciate your analysis of the strength and weaknesses built into the apparent futures of both parties.
Midge – I get how the prediction markets go but conservatives seem to have this defeatist attitude. My only point is not give into that just yet. The democrats have an electoral advantage BUT it is unlikely Hilary will have the same turn out as Obama especially with super delegates rigging the system for her. There is little enthusiasm for Hilary and that will translate to turnout
Yes, I am just sick at what is happening.
Hillary should be very beatable, she is a criminal!
I know Rubio hasn’t earned it. He’s young… green, but that is actually part of his appeal! But the rest of us have earned it!!!! It has been years of hopelessness!!!! All for the chance this year!!!
Rubio can beat Hillary. No one else can!!!
Why aren’t they thinking about us, instead of their own egos!!!!
I don’t dislike them, but they need to get out for the good of the country.
I went ahead and edited the first line to more closely approximate my actual position.
I am glad I live down the road from Ft Sumter.