Forget Clinton vs. Trump: Here Are the 10 Senate Seats You Should Worry About

 

shutterstock_111712103Many American conservatives will be facing a dilemma in November: They can’t vote for Hillary Clinton and they don’t want to vote for Donald Trump. My advice to them is to remember that the more a decision resembles a dilemma, the less important the choice is. To give a counter-example, I did not face a dilemma in last October’s Canadian Federal Election between Stephen Harper’s Conservatives and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, and I knew exactly who to vote for without having to break my head.

A few weeks back, I argued that American conservatives should not waste any more time and effort on the presidential election. Rather, they should accept that — for them — the presidential race was lost when Governor John Kasich and Ted Cruz dropped out of the Republican race last month. Their attention, time, money, and effort would be much better spent on races that have yet to be decided and where they can make a real difference for the better (Claire Berlinski made this same point yesterday). So, given that the next president will be hostile to conservatism, the most important federal goal for American conservatives is to ensure that Congress remains in Republican hands. And given that Antonin Scalia’s replacement on the Supreme Court will be nominated by the next president, maintaining control of the Senate deserves the higher priority. Thanks to their wild success in the 2010 mid-term elections, the Republican Party will be playing defence this election cycle. According to The Hill, the ten Senate seats most likely to flip are:

  • Mark Kirk (Republican): Illinois
  • Ron Johnson (Republican): Wisconsin
  • Marco Rubio’s seat (Republican): Florida
  • Kelly Ayotte (Republican): New Hampshire
  • Pat Toomey (Republican): Pennsylvania
  • Bob Portman (Republican): Ohio
  • Harry Reid’s seat (Democrat): Nevada
  • Richard Burr (Republican): North Carolina
  • John McCain (Republican): Arizona
  • Roy Blunt (Republican): Missouri

As you can see, nine out of the ten seats are currently held by Republicans. In order to maintain control of the Senate Judiciary Committee, as many of these nine Republican seats as possible must be held.

Now, it is true that many of these imperiled GOP Senators are RINOs. But it is also true that the party balance in the Senate determines who controls the committees, and who controls the committees largely determines which bills get voted on and what get shuffled aside. Simply put, electing these RINOs makes it more likely that the Senate Judiciary Committee is controlled by a team that includes Senators Mike Lee, Jeff Sessions, and Ted Cruz rather than one that includes Senators Patrick Leahy, Chuck Schumer, Dianne Feinstein, Dick Durbin, and Al Franken. This, ladies and gentlemen, should not present a dilemma.

Speaking of RINOs, John McCain has a primary challenger in the form of State Senator Kelli Ward and the primary will be held on August 30. According to a poll taken in mid-May, they are tied at 41 percent each. If you want to participate in something more useful that a no-hope, third-party challenge to Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, here is a place to park your time, money, and attention. It is a troubling sign of the misplaced priorities among conservatives that I had to dig quite a bit to find out anything at all about this race. On the other hand, because so few people are paying attention to it, your personal effort will have all the more impact.

Relatedly, the Republican race in Nevada to pick someone to take the Senate seat soon to be vacated by Senator Harry Reid will be held on June 14. Do you even know about it? Do you know who is running? Don’t ask me. I don’t know. The conservative media has ignored this race, which just happens to concern the only likely GOP pickup this year. This is called “shameful.”

Conservatives, don’t tilt at windmills, don’t cry in your beer, and stop paying attention to elections that have already been decided against you. There are plenty of important decisions yet to be made where your participation can make a real difference.

Go do it.

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There are 16 comments.

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  1. tigerlily Member
    tigerlily
    @tigerlily

    Thanks CC. I’d say it’s long past due that McCain gets put out to pasture.

    • #1
  2. Hartmann von Aue Member
    Hartmann von Aue
    @HartmannvonAue

    Nevada Senate Primary information from ballotopedia: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada,_2016

    • #2
  3. Tom Meyer, Ed. Member
    Tom Meyer, Ed.
    @tommeyer

    Thank you. This was heartening. I donated $50 to Kirk’s campaign earlier this week, but that was motivated by other matters.

    If members from each of these states would be interested in writing up some short pieces on each of these races, please PM me.

    • #3
  4. cdor Member
    cdor
    @cdor

    Harry Reid is retiring. Great news on that front. We can all remember Sharon Angle. She ran against Reid as a Tea Party conservative and received no support from the RNC. Quite the contrary, she actually received nothing but derision. Sound familiar? Well she is running again. Better luck this time.

    Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania and Rob Portman in Ohio are worthy of strong support.

    Mark Kirk is probably the best we can do in Illinois right now and Roy Blunt of my state of Missouri is just OK.

    I thought Marco Rubio was not running again. But if he is, he will  receive my support.

    I would love to salute John McCain on his way out of the Senate and back home to Arizona. Go enjoy your grandkids John.

    • #4
  5. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    It will come as no surprise to you that I agree with myself.

    • #5
  6. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Kelli Ward sounds like a nut. Chemtrails? Osteopathy?

    • #6
  7. Evan Pokroy Inactive
    Evan Pokroy
    @EvanPokroy

    As a Nevadan I’m well aware of that race. Yes, Sharon Angle is running. No she will get no support from the establishment, because she’s slightly kookoo. Congressman Joe Heck is running against her in the primary. Former Army Brigadier General, doctor, pretty solid conservative, and pretty well liked. He’s got my vote.

    • #7
  8. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Evan Pokroy: ongressman Joe Heck is running against her in the primary.

    That’s two Ricochet members now who’ve endorsed him. Heck, why not?

    • #8
  9. RyanFalcone Member
    RyanFalcone
    @RyanFalcone

    This list has a heavy leftward slant. Toomey (PA) should be fine. Both Colorado and Nevada for the Dems are in play.

    We will likely lose a couple marginal Republicans but any loss of someone like a Kirk would be cancelled by booting McCain in favor of a conservative. I think we will also take one or two seats from the D’s.

    Not only will we have both House and Senate but this Trump fiasco has created a new attitude for the R’s in office. They now know they are all about to be tarred and feathered unless the show something.

    • #9
  10. tigerlily Member
    tigerlily
    @tigerlily

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    Evan Pokroy: ongressman Joe Heck is running against her in the primary.

    That’s two Ricochet members now who’ve endorsed him. Heck, why not?

    Not a bad campaign slogan.

    • #10
  11. A-Squared Inactive
    A-Squared
    @ASquared

    RyanFalcone:

    …this Trump fiasco has created a new attitude for the R’s in office. They now know they are all about to be tarred and feathered unless the show something.

    Something being bigger government.

    The Rs in office have been quite good at delivering that, so I think they are fine.

    • #11
  12. Matt Y. Inactive
    Matt Y.
    @MattY

    I’m interested in the Colorado race as well (the Democrat, Michael Bennet, won in 2010 with only 48% of the vote); currently it leans Democrat but perhaps a good Republican candidate could make a close race of it.

    • #12
  13. Nick Stuart Inactive
    Nick Stuart
    @NickStuart

    I will be voting for Kirk.

    If I can vote for Kirk (who never misses a chance to stick his finger straight in the eye of conservatives and whose demeanor suggests he doesn’t give a “flip” whether we vote for him or not), the Illnois GOP nomenklatura can vote for Trump. They won’t because that’s how they roll:

    • Demand party loyalty when their candidate wins
    • “Forget” party loyalty when their candidate loses

    Voting for him is the limit though. Time and money are going to go to a candidate for the state House to try to break Michael Madigan’s grip on the Illinois legislature.

    • #13
  14. Frozen Chosen Inactive
    Frozen Chosen
    @FrozenChosen

    The elephant in the room is that having Trump U! at the top of the ticket will make it harder for all of these GOP candidates to win in November.  It could be a bloodbath but I expect(hope) we’ll only lose 2-3 seats.

    • #14
  15. Grosseteste Thatcher
    Grosseteste
    @Grosseteste

    Wasn’t the big story a week or two ago about how normally reliable big GOP donors were sitting out the general because they couldn’t support Trump?  Maybe there will be a lot more money available for downticket races this year.

    • #15
  16. Dave_L Inactive
    Dave_L
    @Dave-L

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:Kelli Ward sounds like a nut. Chemtrails? Osteopathy?

    I can’t speak for chemtrails, Claire, but Osteopathic doctors (DOs) have a long and venerated tradition in everything from family practice to optometry to OB/GYN.  They have all the normal medical credentials in their fields but recognize that the human muscolo-skeletal system itself has an impact on certain ailments and aches.  If you visit a DO for a particular ailment, you’re just as likely to receive the normal course of medical treatment you would receive from an MD as you are to receive a chiropractic-type manipulation.  Fully a third of the staff at our nearby hospitals are DOs.

    Please don’t equate Kelli Ward’s chemtrails remarks with her being a DO.  They are completely unrelated.

    I am extremely grateful that you making your thinking visible, Claire.

    • #16
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