Bring the Jobs Back Home!

 

FoxconnBefore we race to slap tariffs on imports from China, before we insist that it’s possible to “bring those jobs back” to the United States, let’s first ask: which jobs?

The ones in China — at least the ones around iPads and iPhones and the like — don’t seem all that promising. From the Observer:

The world’s largest electronic contract manufacturing company is replacing more than half of its workforce with artificially intelligent robots.

Foxconn—known for manufacturing iPhones, iPods and iPads as well as select products for Sony, Microsoft, Amazon, Dell, Google and Nintendo—laid off 60,000 employees, which will reduce the workforce in a single Taiwanese factory from 110,000 to 50,000.

Okay, well, that’s in Taiwan, where the company is based. But the company, Foxconn, operates facilities in mainland China, too, and those are about to face the same robotic replacements. From Tech in Asia:

Foxconn responded to questions by Tech in Asia and issued a statement. In part, it states: “We are aware of media reports about automation operations at our facilities in China, including Kunshan, and can confirm that Foxconn has been investing in the automation of many of the manufacturing tasks associated with our operations throughout our facilities in China for many years.”

It gets worse — for people, not for robots:

The huge shift to robots at Foxconn and other producers could begin a wave of job losses in Kunshan, which is just outside Shanghai in eastern China. Other areas like Shenzhen in the south might be next.

Taiwan-headquartered Foxconn employed 1.4 million people across mainland China in 2015.

It’s probably more useful to think about ways to develop new jobs and new skills in new technologies, and help develop a smarter and more technologically-skilled workforce, than slapping tariffs on smartphones. Because robots — at least right now — don’t need passports or visas to come into the country.

Published in Culture, Economics, Science & Technology
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  1. Concretevol Thatcher
    Concretevol
    @Concretevol

    “Think about ways to develop new jobs and new skills in new technologies, and help develop a smarter and more technologically-skilled workforce”……….Doesn’t fit on a hat or bumpersticker Rob, sorry.

    • #1
  2. Jamie Lockett Member
    Jamie Lockett
    @JamieLockett

    Make robots extinct again?

    • #2
  3. starnescl Inactive
    starnescl
    @starnescl

    Concretevol:“Think about ways to develop new jobs and new skills in new technologies, and help develop a smarter and more technologically-skilled workforce”……….Doesn’t fit on a hat or bumpersticker Rob, sorry.

    But it does! You just need a machine to sew it on really neatly …

    • #3
  4. Frozen Chosen Inactive
    Frozen Chosen
    @FrozenChosen

    Until our robot overlords take over, there are plenty of good paying human jobs here in Minneapolis.  Those of you stuck in states with no jobs need to take Kevin Williamson’s advice and move up here.

    Many, many jobs can’t be filled because there aren’t enough workers. You folks in the southern border states who are worried about illegal immigrants can just ship them up here – we’ll take all you can give us.

    • #4
  5. A-Squared Inactive
    A-Squared
    @ASquared

    Rob Long: Foxconn, operates facilities in mainland China, too, and those are about to face the same robotic replacements.

    We are going to face a global crisis in the next X number of years when artificial intelligence and robotics combine to virtually eliminate a sizable portion of the current low and medium skilled jobs.

    I don’t know how many years we have, but it is much fewer than I thought just a few years ago.

    • #5
  6. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    Rob,

    What about hundreds of thousands of jobs in the auto industry?

    • #6
  7. PHCheese Inactive
    PHCheese
    @PHCheese

    Someone has to make the robots , I think.

    • #7
  8. Aaron Miller Inactive
    Aaron Miller
    @AaronMiller

    It’s all fun and games until someone touches a button and then we’re all back in HR getting lectured about transmorphic harrassment.

    • #8
  9. Franz Drumlin Inactive
    Franz Drumlin
    @FranzDrumlin

    PHCheese: Someone has to make the robots , I think.

    No problem. They will soon learn to make themselves and . . . oh dear . . .

    • #9
  10. LesserSon of Barsham Member
    LesserSon of Barsham
    @LesserSonofBarsham

    Franz Drumlin:

    PHCheese: Someone has to make the robots , I think.

    No problem. They will soon learn to make themselves and . . . oh dear . . .

    Yeah, I think that happens right before they decide to kill us all…

    • #10
  11. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    CHINA!

    • #11
  12. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    So, let me get this straight. Trump has threatened that he will force Apple to bring iPhone manufacturing back to America on the pretext that there will be more jobs for American workers. Because American presidents (who are not dictators) can force American companies to do that. Meanwhile, contract manufacturers like Foxconn are already converting a major portion of their work force to cheaper robotic machines. So, Trump wants Apple to manufacture at an artificially inflated cost so humans can be employed. Sounds worse than the federal government tossing money down the Solyndra rat hole – an enterprise that was losing millions of dollars before their solar panels even hit the assembly line.

    Then Trump articulated that he (like Hillary and Bernie) is in favor of increasing the Minimum Wage, which will also push some employers – like fast food restaurants to automate further with automated order taking machines and robotic food prep machines.

    I guess that’s the kind of old world thinking we can expect from these fossils running for president…fight innovation to appease disgruntled voters who turn to government to coerce and control private enterprise. Force employers to hire people even if the work can be done more efficiently, faster and cheaply by a robot or machine…because you know…aging Reagan Democrats and rust belt, blue collar workers are angry and want their jobs back even if they’re jobs skills are obsolete.

    Yeah, let’s go with that.

    • #12
  13. A-Squared Inactive
    A-Squared
    @ASquared

    Brian Watt: Because American presidents (who are not dictators) can force American companies to do that.

    Unfortunately, our current nominees for President have a different view of the powers of the Presidency than you do.

    • #13
  14. Amy Schley Coolidge
    Amy Schley
    @AmySchley

    adaptationdemotivator

    • #14
  15. MBF Inactive
    MBF
    @MBF

    John Connor 2016!

    • #15
  16. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill
    @EJHill

    MRGA

    • #16
  17. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    EJHill:MRGA

    You do realize this is oxymoronic? Robot behavior is programmed to be predictable. Creating a robot as unpredictable as Trump would be a very dangerous thing to do.

    • #17
  18. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Brian Watt: You do realize this is oxymoronic? Robot behavior is programmed to be predictable. Creating a robot as unpredictable as Trump would be a very dangerous thing to do.

    Predictable and logical.

    Stee-rike two!

    • #18
  19. blood thirsty neocon Inactive
    blood thirsty neocon
    @bloodthirstyneocon

    LesserSon of Barsham:

    Franz Drumlin:

    PHCheese: Someone has to make the robots , I think.

    No problem. They will soon learn to make themselves and . . . oh dear . . .

    Yeah, I think that happens right before they decide to kill us all…

    They already have. But they need us to repair them when their parts break, right? Nope.

    • #19
  20. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    A-Squared:

    Brian Watt: Because American presidents (who are not dictators) can force American companies to do that.

    Unfortunately, our current nominees for President have a different view of the powers of the Presidency than you do.

    They sure seem like dictators lately to me.

    • #20
  21. Franz Drumlin Inactive
    Franz Drumlin
    @FranzDrumlin

    blood thirsty neocon:

    LesserSon of Barsham:

    Franz Drumlin:

    PHCheese: Someone has to make the robots , I think.

    No problem. They will soon learn to make themselves and . . . oh dear . . .

    Yeah, I think that happens right before they decide to kill us all…

    They already have. But they need us to repair them when their parts break, right? Nope.

    [They are responding to my comment as if I were human . . . Turing Test . . . nailed it!]

    • #21
  22. RushBabe49 Thatcher
    RushBabe49
    @RushBabe49

    About 15 years ago, an important person in my field predicted that a computer would be doing my job within ten years.  Nope, not yet, and probably not in the foreseeable future.  I am not in the least worried about my job being automated, which is one of the things that keeps me working past retirement age.

    • #22
  23. TKC1101 Member
    TKC1101
    @

    I mis-spent the first part of my working life building custom systems for major corporation to organize workflow and improve productivity and responsiveness.

    I became fairly adept and learned a few things.

    A small group of humans with modest systems resources can run rings around any large systematized competitor until they have to scale their operations.

    Until I learned that the human role in process and procedures is to be the adaptive one to handle anomalies  I was quite frustrated in the results of our work.

    The trick with robots or just pure automation and systemization  is to use humans in the roles where adaption , rapid change and recognition of anomalous conditions are critical.

    An AI can offer options, but can it close a sale? Can a process find the never anticipated error?

    Can a robot spot distress in an elderly patient?

    Until AIs can improve on adaptive traits, recognition of anomalies, get annoyed at stupid behavior  and such, there will be jobs for people.

    So we have a good thirty years left before they do not need us anymore.

    • #23
  24. LesserSon of Barsham Member
    LesserSon of Barsham
    @LesserSonofBarsham

    blood thirsty neocon:

    LesserSon of Barsham:

    Franz Drumlin:

    PHCheese: Someone has to make the robots , I think.

    No problem. They will soon learn to make themselves and . . . oh dear . . .

    Yeah, I think that happens right before they decide to kill us all…

    They already have. But they need us to repair them when their parts break, right? Nope.

    Homer-Simpson-wingnuts-doh

    • #24
  25. Fred Hadra Member
    Fred Hadra
    @FredHadra

    I’m not sure the American educational system is training our future workers well enough to take on these high-tech jobs from China: http://www.cultofmac.com/311171/crazy-iphone-rig-shows-chinese-workers-manipulate-app-store-rankings/

    • #25
  26. I Walton Member
    I Walton
    @IWalton

    It is essential that the next secretaries of Treasury and State be adults with some grasp of reality and no socialist/administrative state/central planning notions running around in their heads.  The idea that we could micro manage global production, investment and employment allocations is utter insanity.  We can however make the US an attractive environment for investment and entrepreneurial activity.  The world will respond, but we can’t know how, who, what or when.

    • #26
  27. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    ctlaw:Rob,

    What about hundreds of thousands of jobs in the auto industry?

    I take the silence as agreement that Trump is misguided as to the particular industry of phone production, likely misguided as to the emphasis on currency manipulation, but correct on the ultimate issue of Chinese unfair trade practices greatly hurting the US.

    Is it unreasonable to believe Trump can be persuaded that industries such as motor vehicles, aircraft, entertainment, and the like are more relevant than phones?

    Let’s not even get into general infringement and theft of intellectual property.

    Contrast Hillary who was bought and paid for by the Chinese.

    Contrast likely Libertarian alternatives (and certain Republicans) who religiously take the view that it is OK for foreign countries to engage in such practices and intolerable to even consider retaliation.

    • #27
  28. I Walton Member
    I Walton
    @IWalton

    The first big wave of Chinese exports took jobs away from Southeast Asia, South America, Mexico.  The US had already lost these jobs.  A sharply stronger yuan will cause China to move upscale and start taking the high tech jobs faster.   US auto industry and USTR  bashed the Japanese into accepting voluntary quotas on small cars.  So the Japanese moved into luxury cars where the return was higher and took those cars away from us as well.  Micro managing these things is fools work.  In the 80s we forced the Japanese to revalue and the Yen rose from 260 to the dollar to 85.  The Japanese blew this purchasing power on real estate around the world and in Japan causing the bubble which they responded to at our request with Keynesian spending rather than adjustment.  The Chinese will not be so stupid.    If we insist on a strong Yuan, they will accommodate, that means selling dollars and those dollars will drive the price of the dollar down against all currencies.  This is the threat their billions in reserves pose, not the solution to our lack of a favorable investment climate.  What will they do with that giant leap in purchasing power of the Yuan?  Buy resources around the world, technology, companies that own patents they want, etc. This helps solve their internal debt problem, helps them move to domestic demand led growth but it will not significantly eliminate their current account surplus as it did not alter Japan’s.

    • #28
  29. Larry3435 Inactive
    Larry3435
    @Larry3435

    I dunno.  Maybe Keynes had it right.  Let the robots produce everything, while government hires all the people to dig holes and fill them up again.

    • #29
  30. A-Squared Inactive
    A-Squared
    @ASquared

    TKC1101: An AI can offer options, but can it close a sale?

    When the buyer is also AI, the answer is yes.

    • #30
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