I’ve been keeping an eye on our own Ben Domenech and on the New York Times’s Nate Silver.
As we got closer to Election Day, I’ve been figuring, the polls would more or less have to begin to converge–which in turn would mean that the people who read them for a living, including Ben and Mr. Silver, would have to start agreeing in their predictions.
I’m still waiting.
From today’s “Transom,” Ben Domenech’s prediction that Romney will win:
I see the bottom slipping out from under Obama’s feet, and a campaign hoping to hold on just long enough to salvage a slim victory, one where he is almost certain to lose the popular vote. He is underperforming among whites and independents, and particularly among those likeliest to vote. I have never believed in running the prevent defense, and Obama has been running it for months. Running out the clock is rarely a winning strategy in sports or politics, and it is one I expect to fail this year. Thus, my prediction for Tuesday is this: Obama 260, Romney 278.
From the New York Times this very day, Nate Silver on the reasons Obama is still almost four times–yes, four times–more likely to win than is Romney:
Mr. Obama is not a sure thing, by any means. It is a close race. His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will.
But it turns out that an N.F.L. team that leads by a field goal with three minutes left to go winds up winning the game 79 percent of the time. Those were Mr. Obama’s chances in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Wednesday: 79 percent.
Not coincidentally, these are also about Mr. Obama’s chances of winning Ohio….
In my heart, I’m with Ben. In my head–aw, heck. What did my head ever do for me, anyway?
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