Obama Likely to Win?

 

Not according to Gallup, the most experienced of the pollsters. Not according to the latest RealClearPolitics map. Not according to Susquehanna in Pennsylvania. Not in Virginia. And not in Florida. And not if you judge things by favorability ratings.

And consider how the Obama campaign is flailing. Binders of women? Horrors! What will this demonic Mormon say next?

It will not be over until the fat lady sings, but the trend right now appears to be Romney’s friend.

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Members have made 60 comments.

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  1. Profile photo of Daniel Jeyn Inactive

    Yes, we have lost people who are single-issue voters on the issues of Gay Marriage or Free Abortions on demand.

    This is a center-left country. · 7 minutes ago

    Edited 6 minutes ago

    Depends on where your starting point is. I see “center-left” as a lot closer to where Romney is than where Obama is. Romney is left-of-right-of-center. Obama was marinated in Marxism from birth, and it’s starting to show.

    • #1
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:00 am
  2. Profile photo of RightinChicago Inactive
    wmartin: Obama just retook the lead in the RCP national poll average. So now he is back ahead in the popular vote, and ahead in almost all of the important swing states.

    This is a center-left country. · 24 minutes ago

    Edited 23 minutes ago

    wmartin strikes again!!!

    This is not a center-left country. You’ve peddled that before as I recall. Only around 20% of Americans ever self-describe as liberals according to Gallup. You’ve peddled that before as I recall. Utter nonsense.

    • #2
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:06 am
  3. Profile photo of Duane Oyen Member

    I’d love to see something from Scott Reusser on the significance o0f Jennifer Brunner being replaced by Jon Husted in Oiho (Obama spelling).

    In Minnesota, the metaphysically corrupt ACORNist Mark Ritchie has steered every close election and recount to the leftist candidate since 2007.

    • #3
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:09 am
  4. Profile photo of Casey Member
    RightinChicago: I don’t buy, for one second, that Obama is going to win.

    I don’t buy for one minute that a majority of the American people have heard the name Mitt Romney.

    I do believe a majority can catch you up on Honey Boo Boo, however.

    • #4
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:10 am
  5. Profile photo of Sweezle Member

    Romney-Ryan win so let’s celebrate with Glenlivet. Or sparkling water.

    • #5
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:14 am
  6. Profile photo of Boymoose Inactive

    Obama will loose by 6.625%.

    • #6
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:17 am
  7. Profile photo of Casey Member
    RightinChicago
    wmartin: Obama just retook the lead in the RCP national poll average. So now he is back ahead in the popular vote, and ahead in almost all of the important swing states.

    This is a center-left country. · 24 minutes ago

    Edited 23 minutes ago

    wmartin strikes again!!!

    This is not a center-left country. You’ve peddled that before as I recall. Only around 20% of Americans ever self-describe as liberals according to Gallup. You’ve peddled that before as I recall. Utter nonsense. · 6 minutes ago

    Edited 4 minutes ago

    I know someone who is a staunch Republican because of her pro-choice beliefs.

    This country is center or right or left… it is completely disengaged.

    • #7
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:20 am
  8. Profile photo of Red Feline Inactive

    Ningrim: “… We need less posts about why Romney will/won’t win, and more posts about why voters should pick him. ”

    I think Professor Rahe, whose discipline is History I believe, has based his opinion on facts and what has happened in history. When the economy has been in trouble in the past, the Republicans have been voted in to clean up the mess.

    What do the voters want? A fine man like Romney to bring some hope back to the business world where real jobs are created, or Obama whose record is not too good in that arena? Do they want President Romney, who has a deep understanding of business and economics, or President Obama, who is a community organizer and believes in social engineering and “redistribution”?

    That is why the voters ought to vote for Romney: to show their own belief in the American values that made America the greatest economy in the world, over those values of Euro-Communism/Socialism that have almost destroyed Europe.

    I share Professor Rahe’s belief in the good sense of the American people, and, like him, also predict a landslide victory for Romney.

    • #8
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:26 am
  9. Profile photo of Paul A. Rahe Contributor
    Paul A. Rahe Post author
    wmartin: Obama just retook the lead in the RCP national poll average. So now he is back ahead in the popular vote, and ahead in almost all of the important swing states.

    This is a center-left country. · 15 minutes ago

    Edited 15 minutes ago

    No, center-right. Many, many more people call themselves conservative than liberal. Be of good cheer!

    • #9
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:33 am
  10. Profile photo of Dave Carter Contributor

    If I may be so bold: Screw the polls! Fight like you’re behind. Take nothing for granted. Talk to friends, family, co-workers. Tell them what is at stake. Make sure they are registered. Give them a ride to the polls. No one ever won by staring at the scoreboard. Pessimists get clobbered, but people with the heart and will to win can surmount incredible odds. Dig deep. Our grandchildren’s future is on the line.

    • #10
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:33 am
  11. Profile photo of Gaius Baltar Inactive
    Mike LaRoche: The fat lady has not yet sung, but the dress rehearsal is underway. · 1 hour ago

    Just hope that Romney has her in his binder.

    • #11
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:48 am
  12. Profile photo of Casey Member
    Dave Carter: Pessimists get clobbered

    For the record, I’m not a pessimist… I just know a lot of MBAs.

    • #12
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:48 am
  13. Profile photo of Dave Carter Contributor
    Casey
    Dave Carter: Pessimists get clobbered

    For the record, I’m not a pessimist… I just know a lot of MBAs. · 1 minute ago

    I’ve known a fair number of BS-ers, myself.

    • #13
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:51 am
  14. Profile photo of Jimmy Carter Member

    Professor “Cool Breeze” Rahe.

    • #14
    • October 20, 2012 at 1:58 am
  15. Profile photo of Red Feline Inactive
    Gaius Baltar
    Mike LaRoche: The fat lady has not yet sung, but the dress rehearsal is underway. · 1 hour ago

    Just hope that Romney has her in his binder. · 12 minutes ago

    LOVE this! Romney would deliver this with brilliant timing.

    • #15
    • October 20, 2012 at 2:03 am
  16. Profile photo of The Mugwump Inactive

    Dick Morris reports that he has seen internal polling results from the Romney campaign. It’s Romney up by three in Pennsylvania. His report confirms the numbers from Susquehanna. This race is just about over. 

    • #16
    • October 20, 2012 at 2:03 am
  17. Profile photo of Gretchen Imbergamo Member

    I’m an avowed pessimist with an MBA. As such, it may seem surprising, but I agree with Dave. Screw the Polls! Get out there and do your part, talk to friends, knock on doors, donate a few extra bucks, if you are blessed enough to have ’em. Pray when, how and if it suits you.

    Remember the words that Romney/Ryan have on their signs in the debate green room. CLEAR EYES. FULL HEARTS. CAN’T LOSE!

    And in the worst case, if we do all we can and put our whole heart into it we can walk away at least knowing we put it all on the line and left it all on the field.

    • #17
    • October 20, 2012 at 2:05 am
  18. Profile photo of David Williamson Member

    Ah, a Rahe of sunshine in the Ricochet gloom!

    • #18
    • October 20, 2012 at 2:06 am
  19. Profile photo of Spin Thatcher

    At least Washington state is still in play, right King Prawn? Right? Please tell me yes we are still in play.

    Man I hate being in a blue state…

    • #19
    • October 20, 2012 at 2:18 am
  20. Profile photo of Cuban Mike Inactive

    Rephrasing General George S. Patton’s words:

    “We’ll win this election, but we’ll win it only by fighting and by showing the Liberals that we’ve got more guts than they have; or ever will have.” 

    • #20
    • October 20, 2012 at 2:20 am
  21. Profile photo of E35852 Inactive
    Ken Owsley: At least Washington state is still in play, right King Prawn? Right? Please tell me yes we are still in play.

    Man I hate being in a blue state… · 16 minutes ago

    Imagine what it’s like to vote conservative in CA. All I can ever do is add to the popular vote!

    • #21
    • October 20, 2012 at 2:40 am
  22. Profile photo of Dave Roy Inactive
    Ken Owsley: At least Washington state is still in play, right King Prawn? Right? Please tell me yes we are still in play.

    Man I hate being in a blue state… · 44 minutes ago

    Yes, I find it hard sometimes sending in my WA ballot when I know it’s going to disappear in a sea of blue votes.

    But I do it anyway, because it is my duty.

    • #22
    • October 20, 2012 at 3:10 am
  23. Profile photo of ConservativeWanderer Inactive
    wmartin: Obama just retook the lead in the RCP national poll average. So now he is back ahead in the popular vote, and ahead in almost all of the important swing states.

    This is a center-left country. · 2 hours ago

    Edited 2 hours ago

    Well, gee, I guess I should just stay home on November 6, if Obama is going to win.

    I dunno why we go through this whole “election” business anyway. Let the RCP average in mid-October decide it… or mid-September, or even mid-August… whenever the elites in government and media tell us that the GOP can’t possibly win it.

    • #23
    • October 20, 2012 at 3:29 am
  24. Profile photo of Jim W Inactive

    It’s an impossible dream, but would love to see Romney pull to within single digits in California.

    • #24
    • October 20, 2012 at 5:15 am
  25. Profile photo of Douglas Wingate Inactive

    The circumstance that the election is even in doubt reinforces my opinion that, even if the Presidency and majority control of both houses of the Congress pass to the Republicans, they and the electorate are too far gone to be reformed until they have experienced the self-destruction of left-“liberalism” and the ruin either of the nation or of some impressively large number of state and city governments. It seems the way one can build credibility is by predicting the country’s self-destruction confidently and unflaggingly, no matter who is in charge of any institution, until it happens or there is reform. Until January 2013, I expect to go on ****-kicking Barack Obama, the Senate Democrats, the House Republicans, the State of California, and the State of Illinois, inter alia, as often as it occurs to me there is some of that to be kicked out of them. However, in January 2013, I look forward to the prospect of kicking Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, the Senate and House Republicans, the State of California, the State of Illinois, and all the rest, until I see solid evidence that the Americans and their rulers have ceased being self-destructive fools.

    • #25
    • October 20, 2012 at 5:20 am
  26. Profile photo of Severely Ltd. Member
    Illiniguy: I think we’re all getting a case of what a friend of mine calls the “twisties”. How ’bout we call a moratorium for one day on any political discussions. Do you think we have the discipline to do that? · 5 hours ago

    And breathing! A moratorium on that too!

    Illy, you’re commenting on Ricochet, not Allrecipes

    • #26
    • October 20, 2012 at 5:32 am
  27. Profile photo of barbara lydick Member
    Jim Wright: It’s an impossible dream, but would love to see Romney pull to within single digits in California. · 23 minutes ago

    I’m here in the Central Valley and have yet to see an Obama sign in my town. Everyone I talk with is actively anti-O. Not that the CV can override the rest of CA, but perhaps your dream can come true.

    • #27
    • October 20, 2012 at 5:50 am
  28. Profile photo of James Of England Moderator
    Joan Greathouse
    James Of England
     

    If you look at the fundraising totals, particularly small donor fundraising, at the early voting totals, and at the volunteering levels, you won’t see strong evidence that the enthusiasm is entirely, or even chiefly on our side. We can win this, but for that we need to be supporting Mitt with considerably more practical, useful support, be that campaign calling (particularly if you’re in a non swing state or if you’re a foreigner or overseas), doorstepping, donating, fundraising, or something else. · 1 hour ago

    James, that’s bad. Is Obama doing better than us ? · 19 minutes ago

    In small donor donations, the only detailed, acurate, and objective metric we have on this? Yeah, he’s obliterating us. Early voting, a less accurate metric, has him beating us, albeit by less than he did in 2008.

    This doesn’t meant that we’re going to lose, but when people who were wrong about the primaries make claims about landslides now based on obvious massive enthusiasm gaps, remember that the data disagrees.

    • #28
    • October 20, 2012 at 7:23 am
  29. Profile photo of Scott R Member
    Duane Oyen: I’d love to see something from Scott Reusser on the significance o0f Jennifer Brunner being replaced by Jon Husted in Oiho (Obama spelling).

     

    It would require my pretending to know the significance, Duane — which, you know, I could do, but…

    The story here is still that our state, which typically sits one tick to the right of the country, now sits two ticks to the left — almost completely because of working class resentment over the early aggressive partisanship of Kasich (which had Romney’s stamp of approval during the primaries). Throw in Romney’s opposition to the auto bailouts, and, well, you know the drill.

    Romney’s best bet is to emphasize bipartisanship cred 24/7, which he’s doing now with the help of former gov. and sen. Voinovich in ads. Plus he needs to keep feeding the union dodo birds that cynical, intolerable anti-China rubbish — not a word of which he actually believes. Ugh.

    • #29
    • October 20, 2012 at 7:24 am
  30. Profile photo of BlueAnt Member
    Illiniguy: I think we’re all getting a case of what a friend of mine calls the “twisties”. How ’bout we call a moratorium for one day on any political discussions. Do you think we have the discipline to do that? · 7 hours ago

    Sure, it’s worth a shot.

    Soooo… how about that local sports team? Boy, that last game was brutal, wasn’t it? Their performance was as bad as Obama in the first debate!

    …dang. I tried. Back to wonkery and obsessing over margins of error!

    • #30
    • October 20, 2012 at 7:33 am
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