Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama

 

That’s according to ABC News. Without having dived into the polling data, I am pretty sure that Minnesota will cast its electoral votes for the president, though Pennsylvania may be a closer case; it has remained on Romney’s radar for a while. But think of this: If two states once thought to be reliably blue are thinking of going red, how much ground might the president be losing in other places?

I think the momentum is clearly with Romney, but I have a confession to make. While I certainly don’t believe that the president will achieve the margin of victory suggested here, I do think–and this is based on having gone through a number of scenarios–that Barack Obama has more paths to 270 electoral votes than Mitt Romney does, which would suggest that the president is more likely to win. So I guess that the only thing that I can say to readers who want Romney to win is this: Prove me wrong.

Make sure to get out to vote. Tell your friends to get out to vote. Tell your family to get out to vote. Volunteer for the Romney campaign. Make calls. Donate money if possible. Make me eat crow on November 7th.

I’ll be happy to do it. It will be delicious.

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Members have made 30 comments.

  1. Profile photo of MichaelC19fan Member

    How many times has PA and OR treated the GOP POTUS candidate like Lucy with the football fools Charlie Brown? I will believe it when I see it.

    • #1
    • October 30, 2012 at 11:00 am
  2. Profile photo of BrentB67 Inactive

    It is interesting, but just political theatre. If Obama wins by 1 vote in either state or 1 million it doesn’t matter and he still has a much easier path to the electoral college victory.

    Close only counts in hand grenades, horseshoes, and tactical nukes.

    • #2
    • October 30, 2012 at 11:12 am
  3. Profile photo of ParisParamus Member

    I think the third-party candidate Dems Stayhome will play a pivotal part in this election.

    • #3
    • October 30, 2012 at 11:38 am
  4. Profile photo of AnnaS Inactive

    I actually hate coming to Ricochet anymore. The articles are so depressing!

    • #4
    • October 30, 2012 at 11:42 am
  5. Profile photo of Frozen Chosen Thatcher

    The recent MN Star Tribune poll was +5 D so a strong GOP turnout could put the state in Romney’s column.

    More troubling for Obama should be the fact that he can’t crack 47% in this poll.

    • #5
    • October 31, 2012 at 1:14 am
  6. Profile photo of ConservativeWanderer Inactive
    Frozen Chosen: More troubling for Obama should be the fact that he can’t crack 47% in this poll. · 1 minute ago

    That 47% number keeps showing up, doesn’t it? (wink, nod)

    • #6
    • October 31, 2012 at 1:19 am
  7. Profile photo of wmartin Inactive

    Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad.

    • #7
    • October 31, 2012 at 1:29 am
  8. Profile photo of DocJay Member

    All of sillies can smile now. Romney will win this election. He will narrowly win Ohio and Wisconsin. Romney is not only campaigning in Florida but picking up a very large check or three in person.

    wmartin: Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad. · 1 hour ago
    • #8
    • October 31, 2012 at 2:55 am
  9. Profile photo of Frozen Chosen Thatcher
    wmartin: Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad. · 2 hours ago

    Why? Let’s face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it’s business as usual. Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that’s plenty.

    You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country?

    • #9
    • October 31, 2012 at 4:14 am
  10. Profile photo of Bruce in Marin Member

    If the only admissible evidence in the case is the RCP average of polls, then pessimism is justified. If on the other hand you find the argument persuasive that Democratic turnout advantage can not possibly be as high as the crosstabs in the vast majority of those polls have it, then you will reach a different conclusion.

    Myself, I find most of the polls absurd based on their presumed D/R ratio. I also cannot ignore all the evidence, both anecdotal and poll-based, that in fact Romney supporters are far more enthusiastic than the bitter Obama-clingers. To me, this smells like… victory.

    • #10
    • October 31, 2012 at 4:23 am
  11. Profile photo of wmartin Inactive
    Frozen Chosen
    wmartin: Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad. · 2 hours ago

    Why? Let’s face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it’s business as usual. Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that’s plenty.

    You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country? · 10 minutes ago

    Edited 10 minutes ago

    I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit.

    • #11
    • October 31, 2012 at 5:19 am
  12. Profile photo of wmartin Inactive
    Bruce in Marin:

    Myself, I find most of the polls absurd based on their presumed D/R ratio. I also cannot ignore all the evidence, both anecdotal and poll-based, that in fact Romney supporters are far more enthusiastic than the bitter Obama-clingers. To me, this smells like… victory. · 56 minutes ago

    The polls don’t have a “presumed D/R ratio.” Only Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP weight by party id.

    • #12
    • October 31, 2012 at 5:20 am
  13. Profile photo of Keith Inactive

    I think if Romney wanted to win Minnesota, he’d have Ryan visit with Santorum. Santorum and Paul were the only two candidates we were enthusiastic about.

    • #13
    • October 31, 2012 at 5:29 am
  14. Profile photo of James Of England Moderator
    Pejman Yousefzadeh:

    Make sure to get out to vote. Tell your friends to get out to vote. Tell your family to get out to vote. Volunteer for the Romney campaign. Make calls. Donate money if possible. Make me eat crow on November 7th.

    I’ll be happy to do it. It will be delicious. · · 6 hours ago

    Pejman, if you decide to effect a real difference and make campaign calls, could I ask you to report back here on how it goes? There’s a ton of people who want to help, but feel nervous about it. As a respected figure, your modelling correct behavior and demonstrating that it’s not scary would be helpful.

    • #14
    • October 31, 2012 at 5:40 am
  15. Profile photo of James Of England Moderator
    wmartin
    Frozen Chosen
    wmartin: Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad. · 2 hours ago

    Why? Let’s face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it’s business as usual. Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that’s plenty.

    You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country? · 10 minutes ago

    Edited 10 minutes ago

    I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit. · 15 minutes ago

    We’re mildly ahead in Florida, but it makes sense to turn a 75% chance into an 80% chance if it takes a day or two. If we focus exclusively on offense we could take Pennsylvania and lose the race. Florida has ego, and Mitt can’t be seen to abandon it.

    • #15
    • October 31, 2012 at 5:41 am
  16. Profile photo of wmartin Inactive
    Keith Bruzelius: I think if Romney wanted to win Minnesota, he’d have Ryan visit with Santorum. Santorum and Paul were the only two candidates we were enthusiastic about. · 13 minutes ago

    I would keep Rick Santorum as far away as possible. We really don’t need his tons of baggage in the last week.

    • #16
    • October 31, 2012 at 5:56 am
  17. Profile photo of wmartin Inactive
    James Of England
    wmartin

    I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit. · 15 minutes ago

    We’re mildly ahead in Florida, but it makes sense to turn a 75% chance into an 80% chance if it takes a day or two. If we focus exclusively on offense we could take Pennsylvania and lose the race. Florida has ego, and Mitt can’t be seen to abandon it. · 14 minutes ago

    If that’s where we actually are in Florida, I am relieved. Just for the record, what is your sense of Ohio (if you have one)? I would like to see something other than Rasmussen and claims of internal polling showing us with a lead.

    • #17
    • October 31, 2012 at 5:58 am
  18. Profile photo of Lucy Pevensie Inactive
    James Of England
    wmartin
    Frozen Chosen
    wmartin: Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad. · 2 hours ago

    Why? Let’s face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it’s business as usual. Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that’s plenty.

    You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country? · 10 minutes ago

    Edited 10 minutes ago

    I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit. · 15 minutes ago

    We’re mildly ahead in Florida, but it makes sense to turn a 75% chance into an 80% chance if it takes a day or two. If we focus exclusively on offense we could take Pennsylvania and lose the race. Florida has ego, and Mitt can’t be seen to abandon it.

    @wmartin: In contrast, take a look at Bill Clinton campaigning in Minnesota. Now that’s a sign of things looking bad for the Dems.

    • #18
    • October 31, 2012 at 6:08 am
  19. Profile photo of James Of England Moderator
    wmartin
    James Of England
    wmartin

    If that’s where we actually are in Florida, I am relieved. Just for the record, what is your sense of Ohio (if you have one)? I would like to see something other than Rasmussen and claims of internal polling showing us with a lead. ·

    I honestly don’t know about Ohio. There are so many states, each with their own issues and twists, that I don’t think anyone knows what the map will look like. I do think that an Ohio-less victory has been looking ever more likely over the last month. This week’s Nevada early vote has cheered up a bit. Iowa’s biggest paper switched endorsements. Colorado and Nevada’s military vote has been energized. Pennsylvania is possible (and the flood definitely helps there, diminishing the Philly vote while leaving Harrisburg alone).

    • #19
    • October 31, 2012 at 6:17 am
  20. Profile photo of ConservativeWanderer Inactive
    Lucy Pevensie
    James Of England
    wmartin
    Frozen Chosen
    wmartin: Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad. · 2 hours ago

    Why? Let’s face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it’s business as usual. Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that’s plenty.

    You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country? · 10 minutes ago

    Edited 10 minutes ago

    I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit. · 15 minutes ago

    We’re mildly ahead in Florida, but it makes sense to turn a 75% chance into an 80% chance if it takes a day or two. If we focus exclusively on offense we could take Pennsylvania and lose the race. Florida has ego, and Mitt can’t be seen to abandon it.

    @wmartin: In contrast, take a look at Bill Clinton campaigning in Minnesota. Now that’s a sign of things looking bad for the Dems. · 11 minutes ago

    I still wonder if Billy would rather Obama win, or lose.

    • #20
    • October 31, 2012 at 6:20 am
  21. Profile photo of James Of England Moderator
    Lucy Pevensie
    James Of England
    wmartin

    I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit. · 15 minutes ago

    We’re mildly ahead in Florida, but it makes sense to turn a 75% chance into an 80% chance if it takes a day or two. If we focus exclusively on offense we could take Pennsylvania and lose the race. Florida has ego, and Mitt can’t be seen to abandon it.

    @wmartin: In contrast, take a look at Bill Clinton campaigning in Minnesota. Now that’s a sign of things looking bad for the Dems. · 11 minutes ago

    Getting votes is only one reason to campaign. Getting volunteers is another, and generally bigger impact. In a race where much of the impact is coming from out of state calling, it can be worth holding events in states you’re not concerned about losing.

    Plus, there are House and state legislature races, and even if the Senate race isn’t close, Klobuchar will still be grateful for the support.

    • #21
    • October 31, 2012 at 6:25 am
  22. Profile photo of wmartin Inactive
    James Of England

    Getting votes is only one reason to campaign. Getting volunteers is another, and generally bigger impact. In a race where much of the impact is coming from out of state calling, it can be worth holding events in states you’re not concerned about losing.

    Plus, there are House and state legislature races, and even if the Senate race isn’t close, Klobuchar will still be grateful for the support. · 1 minute ago

    It does seem that much of that would be neutralized by the whiff of fear that a Clinton visit to MN demonstrates, no?

    • #22
    • October 31, 2012 at 6:34 am
  23. Profile photo of James Of England Moderator
    wmartin
    James Of England

    Getting votes is only one reason to campaign. Getting volunteers is another, and generally bigger impact. In a race where much of the impact is coming from out of state calling, it can be worth holding events in states you’re not concerned about losing.

    Plus, there are House and state legislature races, and even if the Senate race isn’t close, Klobuchar will still be grateful for the support. · 1 minute ago

    It does seem that much of that would be neutralized by the whiff of fear that a Clinton visit to MN demonstrates, no? · 18 minutes ago

    You think that fear is likely to demotivate Minnesotan Democratic volunteers, or that Clinton visiting makes the House races less competitive because Clinton shows fear? The Senate race is obviously not in a fearful position.

    • #23
    • October 31, 2012 at 6:54 am
  24. Profile photo of KvassTruck Inactive
    James Of England

    Pennsylvania is possible (and the flood definitely helps there, diminishing the Philly vote while leaving Harrisburg alone). · 1 hour ago

    I live in West Philly, and I’m skeptical that the storm will do much in terms of affecting turnout here. Power outages and downed trees were fairly minimal. Things were pretty much back and up and running by noon today.

    I will say that I’ve seen very little in the way of Obama swag/bumper stickers/yard signs in these parts, which may be somewhat indicative of overall enthusiasm. Aside from the flashing signs on SEPTA buses saying “Don’t Forget to Vote!”, there are few indicators around here that we’re in the midst of an election. While one of the houses around here has an “Obama Shrine”, the only large yard sign I’ve seen was a massive Romney-Ryan one right on the edge of a major hipster area.

    • #24
    • October 31, 2012 at 8:21 am
  25. Profile photo of Pejman Yousefzadeh Inactive
    Pejman Yousefzadeh Post author

    At the worst, some of the people whom you might call will say “no” and be rude to you. And is it really worth losing sleep over that? Volunteer!

    James Of England
    Pejman Yousefzadeh:

    Make sure to get out to vote. Tell your friends to get out to vote. Tell your family to get out to vote. Volunteer for the Romney campaign. Make calls. Donate money if possible. Make me eat crow on November 7th.

    I’ll be happy to do it. It will be delicious. · · 6 hours ago

    Pejman, if you decide to effect a real difference and make campaign calls, could I ask you to report back here on how it goes? There’s a ton of people who want to help, but feel nervous about it. As a respected figure, your modelling correct behavior and demonstrating that it’s not scary would be helpful. · 16 hours ago

    • #25
    • October 31, 2012 at 9:43 am
  26. Profile photo of James Of England Moderator
    Pejman Yousefzadeh: At the worst, some of the people whom you might call will say “no” and be rude to you. And is it really worth losing sleep over that? Volunteer!
    James Of England
    Pejman Yousefzadeh:

    Make sure to get out to vote. Tell your friends to get out to vote. Tell your family to get out to vote. Volunteer for the Romney campaign. Make calls. Donate money if possible. Make me eat crow on November 7th.

    I’ll be happy to do it. It will be delicious. · · 6 hours ago

    Pejman, if you decide to effect a real difference and make campaign calls, could I ask you to report back here on how it goes? There’s a ton of people who want to help, but feel nervous about it. As a respected figure, your modelling correct behavior and demonstrating that it’s not scary would be helpful. ·

    I agree, but I promise you, there’s a ton of people who aren’t doing it because they feel nervous. If you had an hour or even half hour free and wanted to make a really substantial (potentially decisive) difference, making calls and posting about the experience would do that.

    • #26
    • October 31, 2012 at 10:50 am
  27. Profile photo of Bruce in Marin Member
    wmartin
    Bruce in Marin:

    Myself, I find most of the polls absurd based on their presumed D/R ratio.

    The polls don’t have a “presumed D/R ratio.” Only Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP weight by party id. · 17 hours ago

    Yep, and why is it that Rasmussen does that? (I didn’t know IBD did.) They weight the results because they believe that party breakdown in the electorate can be estimated accurately enough that it’s a useful corrective for bad sampling. I expect most of us would agree with that: it’s just not credible that the Democrats this year are going to enjoy a better turnout this year than they got in 2008, when Obama was the repository of all hopes and dreams.

    So scratch the word “presumed”. Substitute “ridiculous”.

    • #27
    • October 31, 2012 at 11:12 am
  28. Profile photo of Schrodinger's Cat Inactive

    If Romney wins Minnesota and Pennsylvania, he will surely win Wisconsin and Ohio for a blow out. MN and PA are just icing on the cake. The focus should stay on OH and WI.

    • #28
    • October 31, 2012 at 12:04 pm
  29. Profile photo of Keith Keystone Member

    Living in MN, I think there is a slim chance of Romney carrying the state. However, Bush only lost MN by about 3 points in 2004, so it is possible. And we have a marriage amendment and voter id law on the ballot, which has definitely fired up elements of the conservative base.

    • #29
    • October 31, 2012 at 12:19 pm
  30. Profile photo of Pig Man Inactive
    Schrodinger’s Cat: If Romney wins Minnesota and Pennsylvania, he will surely win Wisconsin and Ohio for a blow out. MN and PA are just icing on the cake. The focus should stay on OH and WI. · 36 minutes ago
    Cat is right, as is Pejman. Obama supporters would love to have Romney waste his time in PA. 
    • #30
    • October 31, 2012 at 12:43 pm