Lee Corso, a former football coach and current commentator on ESPN’s College Game Day, has a great expression, “Somebody knows something.” When he says that, he usually means the betting line for a game is not what one would expect. For instance, if Alabama is favored by only two points against Vanderbilt, it likely means that bettors, for some reason, believe that Vanderbilt is much better prepared than usual or Alabama is much worse prepared than usual. That is, somebody has some inside information about Alabama or Vanderbilt.
Somebody seems to know something about Arnold Schwarzenegger and John Edwards. If you had asked me the odds that they’d even run for president, I would have guessed something on the order of 10,000 to 1. Yet, Paddy Power, a betting site, places the odds that they will win their party’s nomination at 50:1 for Edwards and 66:1 for Schwarzenegger.
I predict that within the next several months we’ll see some kind of pseudo announcement from each that they are running–e.g. a trip to Iowa or the formation of an exploratory committee.