If You Were an Israeli Strategic Planner, What Would You Do?

Check out this short video. Ignore the soundtrack; I put that on to obscure the voices of some of the people with me who weren’t crazy about the idea of being quoted. 

Now, here’s what you’re looking at. You’re looking at Shi’a villages, on the right, controlled by Hezbollah. One of those villages contains a model of the al-Aqsa mosque. Last October, Ahmadinejad was standing there–in that village–announcing to joyful crowds that soon they would make the Zionist filth disappear.

Buried underneath that village and others near it, which you must admit look lovely from this vantage point, are weapons. A lot of them. You’ve got command and control systems, IID, anti-tank weapons, short-range rockets, anything you need. This isn’t a big secret; after all, this is the view–without binoculars–from where I’m standing, so obviously it’s not going to be hard to watch what they’re doing and where they’re burying this stuff.

So. You can fire a rocket from there and hit Haifa, which has a quarter of a million people in it, and indeed, during the last Lebanon War, they did just that, hitting an open area of an oil refinery. Had the hit been just slightly more direct, you can imagine what would have happened.

And where are these weapons buried, exactly? Near schools, hospitals, and civilian homes. It’s easy to see that, too. So, you take them out and you will, inevitably, kill kids–kids whose only crime has been to be born in the wrong place.

You be the strategic planner: How many rockets would they have to launch before you said, “Okay, we’re taking those installations out?” 

The Israeli answer–to judge from experience–is about 10,000. That’s how many rockets were launched from Gaza at Israeli civilian populations before operation Cast Lead.

No, no, that number’s not a misprint. About 10,000. 

So, seriously. At what point, if you were responsible for Israel’s defense, would you take them out?

Don’t say, “Now.” That border’s been quiet since the 2006 war. You need to think about this in the complete diplomatic and military picture. You do that, you start a war–a big one. And you kill a lot of kids. 

One rocket? What if it doesn’t hit anything?

Ten rockets?

Fifty?

Now imagine that’s the American border, the rockets are flying over from Mexico, and they could easily hit a major population center like Dallas.

Anyone going to say, “Let’s wait for 10,000?” 

I kind of doubt it.