While I am not yet prepared to declare President Obama “toast”–I have seen too many plausible scenarios in which the president ends up winning the electoral college–it is worth noting that not only has Mitt Romney vastly improved his position in the polls, he has also vastly improved his position in voter outreach, voter contact and the ground game/turnout game in general. Four years ago, a significantly superior ground game on the part of Team Obama ensured that the then-senator’s lead in the polls translated into a solid win on Election Day. It is going to be much tougher to replicate the effort against Team Romney, which is in a much better position to compete in getting out the vote.
Of course, it ought to go without saying that the best vehicle for voter turnout is the individual voter. So get to the polls! This is going to be a very close election and your vote can make a difference. Wouldn’t it be a terrible shame if you failed to make that difference by not stating your choice at the ballot box?