Election ’10: Ten Weeks Out, a Wave Builds

 

It’s still early, yet, but it’s not that early. There’s something happening, here, and what it is is pretty straightforward: the Democrats in Congress and the White House are not very popular, and they are not very popular because of their policies. Yesterday Diane noted Gallup’s new poll showing a ten-point Republican lead on the generic Congressional ballot — the largest such margin in history — and Rasmussen’s finding that voters trust the GOP over the Dems on all ten of the issues regularly tracked by the polling shop. But wait — there’s more.

* “[T]he gap between registered and likely voter polls this year,” writes Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, “is about 4 points in the Republicans’ favor — so a 10-point lead in a registered voter poll is the equivalent of about 14 points on a likely-voter basis. Thus, even if this particular Gallup survey was an outlier, it’s not unlikely that we’ll begin to see some 8-, 9-, 10-point leads for Republicans in this poll somewhat routinely once Gallup switches over to a likely voter model at some point after Labor Day — unless Democrats do something to get the momentum back.”

* One of two Republicans — compared to only one of four Democrats — are “very” enthusiastic about voting in November. The GOP’s advantage is the largest of the year. (Gallup)

* One of three likely voters polled say the country is headed in the right direction. Almost three out of four independents say the country is on the wrong track. (Rasmussen)

Here’s a visual aid to put that in perspective:

If bad right track/wrong track numbers are the kiss of death for a party in power, trend lines like these are akin to a makeout session with the grim reaper.

Look way back at the very beginning of the graph, in the top left hand corner. See that 70% wrong track reading? That’s right: we have yet to reach the upper limit of our national disgruntlement. Republicans would do well to guard against peaking too early. But this kind of deep dissatisfaction doesn’t look like a peak.

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  1. Profile Photo Contributor
    @JamesPoulos

    It’s not just a national thing. Geraghty has state highlights:

    1. “Sixty-five percent (65%) of Likely Voters in Illinois are at least somewhat angry at the current policies of the federal government, according to a new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey. That finding matches the level measured nationally, and includes 41% who are Very Angry at the government’s policies. Just 32% of voters are not angry at the government’s policies. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Illinois voters believe that neither party’s political leaders have a good understanding of what is needed today. Twenty-nine percent (29%) disagree with that assessment, while 17% are not sure.”

    2. A new survey conducted for the NRSC shows Miller leading Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) by a 52%-36% margin. And other metrics in the Last Frontier skew the race heavily in Miller’s favor, even after other surveys show he begins his race as an unpopular contender. Fully 57% say they want a GOPer to provide a check and balance over Pres. Obama, while only 33% want a Dem to help pass the WH agenda. Obama’s job approval ratings clock in at just 40%, while 53% disapprove.

    • #1
  2. Profile Photo Member
    @ScottR

    Wonder if, now, merely taking the House no longer constitutes a good day on Nov. 2. Should our expectations and hopes be for much more? Yes. A rebuke unprecedented in our history (60-70 seats in the House, 7-10 in the Senate) would be a spectacle, a lesson for D.C. that would be heeded for a generation: aggressively pursue liberalism at your peril. We must make “Remember 2010” a whispered phrase among the D.C. crowd for generations.

    • #2
  3. Profile Photo Inactive
    @HumzaAhmad
    James Poulos, Ed.: If bad right track/wrong track numbers are the kiss of death for a party in power, trend lines like these are akin to a makeout session with the grim reaper.

    My nominee for Quote of the Week!

    • #3
  4. Profile Photo Inactive
    @TheMugwump
    Scott Reusser: Wonder if, now, merely taking the House no longer constitutes a good day on Nov. 2. Should our expectations and hopes be for much more? Yes. A rebuke unprecedented in our history (60-70 seats in the House, 7-10 in the Senate) would be a spectacle, a lesson for D.C. that would be heeded for a generation: aggressively pursue liberalism at your peril. We must make “Remember 2010” a whispered phrase among the D.C. crowd for generations. · Aug 31 at 5:41am

    Edited on Aug 31 at 05:43 am

    Scott, you assume the DC crowd is capable of learning the lesson. I doubt it. They don’t seem to understand who serves whom in a republic. We know the script: racist, angry white men, temper tantrum, yadda, yadda. Quite frankly, I don’t care if the get the message or not as long as they are put out of office for good.

    • #4
  5. Profile Photo Podcaster
    @EJHill
    ~Paules They don’t seem to understand who serves whom in a republic. We know the script…

    There are many times in the history of man when a people have become disenchanted with the elites that rule them. But has there ever been a time in the history of our republic when the elites have been so openly disgusted with the people?

    What happens in November if all of these forecasts are wrong? Where will we be and what will we do if we wake up on November 3rd to find Nancy and Harry with reduced majorities but still firmly in control?

    • #5
  6. Profile Photo Contributor
    @PatSajak
    EJHill

    What happens in November if all of these forecasts are wrong? Where will we be and what will we do if we wake up on November 3rd to find Nancy and Harry with reduced majorities but still firmly in control? · Aug 31 at 9:07am

    If that happens, we’ll just have to hope the Mayans were right, and that we’ll only have to live with it for two years. (The preceding is a shameless link to my own post!)

    • #6
  7. Profile Photo Editor
    @RobLong

    Good point, EJHill. That’s always what holds the revolution back — the fear of what if it doesn’t work? What if they’re still in power? Which is why they always say that if you’re going to go for the King, you’d better kill him. Otherwise, he’ll be coming for you.

    Okay, then, so what do we do? Well, first, we win.

    Second, we identify the real problem, which isn’t the Democratic party or the liberal media or big government, but the citizens’ appetite, built up over the decades, for handouts and entitlements. All of these have to go. Farm subsidies, mortgage interest deductions, boondoggles and giveaways of all kinds, Medicare cuts and Social Security privatization — all of it. That’s the real revolution. That’s going to be very very hard.

    Look, we’ve had Republican majorities in both houses before. We’ve even had what they have now, a trifecta. A Republican win in November isn’t a decisive victory, it’s just a first step on a long road. It’s the Battle of Midway.

    • #7
  8. Profile Photo Member
    @ScottR

    Cheer up, EJ. We will roll. It will happen.

    And Paules, I know there are certain “unreformables,” but there will be some, hopefully many, who, for purely selfish reasons–not because they have respect for our wisdom or anything–will get the message not to ever try that again (They’ll have to go back to destroying the country in increments!). Also, an epic victory on Nov 3 will at least be an indication that America gets it, that America learned a little lesson. That isn’t nothing.

    • #8
  9. Profile Photo Member
    @ScottR

    Nov 2 as Midway. Perfect! And Scott Brown was the Doolittle Raid, which set us on a journey that culminates in “Fat Man” and “Little Boy” (Christie/Daniels 2012).

    • #9
  10. Profile Photo Podcaster
    @EJHill

    I am the resident Eeyore (until Claire uncrowns me). I know Murphy’s Law and I think Murphy was an optimist! I also believe the current crowd in power are firmly in the camp of voting rights for the dead.

    Again I ask, if the results are the opposite of the predictions, then what? Do we resign ourselves to the United States of Europe? Or do we seek alternatives?

    In the earlier Beck-a-thon thread, it was either Emily or Diane that asserted that revolution was inherently “anti-conservative,” although I seem to remember Reagan standing firm with revolutionaries named Wałęsa and Havel. And as Rob points out, we had won the Trifecta in 2000 and gained nothing but disappointment.

    • #10
  11. Profile Photo Contributor
    @JamesPoulos

    If Reid and Pelosi retain power, just wait for 2012. It’ll be an apocalypse, all right, but only for one party.

    • #11

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