COVID and India

 

It’s fair to say that India is not doing well with the virus. Official numbers tell us that we currently have 400,000 new infections diagnosed per day, and 4,000 daily deaths due to COVID 19. The official numbers are contested:

“The figures on Covid infections that the government is releasing are actually an underestimate,” Dr Manas Gumta, general secretary of the Association of Health Service Doctors in West Bengal, told the Observer.

“A huge suspected Covid-positive population is certainly staying away from the tests. I believe the actual number of people dying of Covid is two to three times higher than what the government is reporting. And the number of infections could be up to five times than what is being reported by the Indian authorities.”

But even if we just go with the official numbers, that’s about 2 percent of the population being infected each week. Because of the lag between infection and mortality rates, it’s unclear how many people will die from the virus. In Delhi there are shortages of oxygen, shortages of PPE, even the dead have to wait in line to be cremated. And there are shortages of vaccines. It looks bleak.

How did we get here? One reason: elections. India just completed Assembly elections for four states and one union territory (total population about 319 million), and with elections come rallies:

India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh (population almost 200 million) also had its Panchayati elections (municipal and the rural equivalent, basically), to fill 800,000 posts. Anyway, we had a lot of electioneering.

We also had at least one large religious festival, the Haridwar Mahakumbh where over 4,800,000 people gathered. A lakh is 100,000:

Uttarakhand recorded an 1800% increase in COVID-19 cases between 31 March to 24 April, when the Haridwar Mahakumbh was held.

The massive congregation likely turned into a super spreader event in the state as Uttarakhand recorded 1.3 lakh COVID-19 cases in over a month , which is over half of the state’s case tally till date.

Over 35 lakh people had gathered at Haridwar on 12 April and 13.51 lakh on 14 April.

So – that’s where we are.

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  1. Aaron Miller Inactive
    Aaron Miller
    @AaronMiller

    Zafar: In Delhi there are shortages of oxygen, shortages of PPE, even the dead have to wait in line to be cremated.  And there are shortages of vaccines.  It looks bleak.

    I’m surprised it has taken so long for India’s death count to match our own. In fact, the death count is currently lower than ours, which is strange. Our count is inflated while theirs might be depressed. Maybe genetics is also a factor. 

    But the recent spike seems severe. 

    By official count, 3,601 people [in Delhi] have died this month, of them 2,267 in the last seven days alone in the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic which is terrorising and tormenting the city. In all of February, the death toll was 57, and in March 117.

    Prayers that vaccines can be more available in poor countries soon. 

    Did Indians not gather in crowds last year? After  a year of COVID, I’d expect the necessities of life have caused people to gather and the infection to spread long before this. 

    • #1
  2. Nohaaj Coolidge
    Nohaaj
    @Nohaaj

    Is data available on the demographics of the dead?  Do the demographics mirror US death statistics?  Is the median age over 70, with comorbidities? 

    • #2
  3. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Aaron Miller (View Comment):
    I’m surprised it has taken so long for India’s death count to match our own.

    The numbers are rubbish. India’s are deliberately under-reported. 

    • #3
  4. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Nohaaj (View Comment):

    Is data available on the demographics of the dead? Do the demographics mirror US death statistics? Is the median age over 70, with comorbidities?

    Average life expectancy in India is 69. Anecdotally more young people being hospitalised in this second wave, though still older people at higher risk.

    The data is suspect, but the virus may have (has) mutated – that may be a factor. 

    • #4
  5. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    I watch Karl Rock’s videos off and on and he reported on how Covid went through his family plus he was up in the mountains when the lockdown hit and reported on difficulties in getting back to Delhi. Interesting videos. 

    • #5
  6. Henry Castaigne Member
    Henry Castaigne
    @HenryCastaigne

    I really hope India goes more capitalist so poorer folks can buy more stuff to improve their lives. 

    • #6
  7. Henry Castaigne Member
    Henry Castaigne
    @HenryCastaigne

    Zafar (View Comment):

    Aaron Miller (View Comment):
    I’m surprised it has taken so long for India’s death count to match our own.

    The numbers are rubbish. India’s are deliberately under-reported.

    All governments lie but democracies and well-run monarchies have a tendency to be more honest. Why are India’s numbers so dishonest?

    • #7
  8. EHerring Coolidge
    EHerring
    @EHerring

    Have they tried HCQ? India has a lot of that. China unleashed a plague on the rest of the world. It might be with us forever. 

    • #8
  9. Aaron Miller Inactive
    Aaron Miller
    @AaronMiller

    Twice now that I know of, an entire family in our parish was hit by COVID all at once. Parents and children were all confined to home or even to beds. Did government rescue them with food and caretakers? No; friends, neighbors, and church did that. 

    That’s in an area where the rich and the poor live together and embrace each other as neighbors. Not all of America is like that, so it’s fair to guess not all of India is like that. But voluntary, impromptu charity can do so much. That efficiency is not theoretical. 

    Voluntary charity could even purchase and share vaccines, if governments would allow. If Americans donate a few bucks toward buying goats, rice, and school books, we would certainly be willing to donate vaccines. 

    • #9
  10. Clavius Thatcher
    Clavius
    @Clavius

    I have many colleagues from India and in India.  Just about every family has been hit in some way.

    They are making extensive use of HCQ and Ivermectin.  Most of those I know who are younger than 50 are recovering without issues.  But a 35-year old did not make it.  The stress on the medical system is making the situation much worse.  Relatives are being told to find oxygen for patients.

    The deaths are clearly understated.  4,000 deaths a day would not cause lines at the crematoriums.

    A colleague lost his father and is returning with no prospect of return to the US, where he has made his career.  It is heartbreaking.

    • #10
  11. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Henry Castaigne (View Comment):
    All governments lie but democracies and well-run monarchies have a tendency to be more honest. Why are India’s numbers so dishonest?

    Why would you say democracies are more honest? Democratically elected leaders have a greater incentive to lie because they can be voted out. 

    • #11
  12. Old Bathos Member
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    If the current total reported number of COVID deaths in India were multiplied by ten, it would still be fewer deaths/million than in the US. (Currently 177 versus 1,791). 

    We can be pretty confident that the case numbers in India are peaking because COVID outbreaks are never sustained and the slope of the curve in India is declining.

    Countries closer to China (apparently the motherland of COVID variants) with long-standing trade ties all have had vastly lower incidence of COVID than the west. One paper claimed to find some evidence of genetic selection going back 25,000 years. 

    We should be extremely cautious about claiming that alleged superspreader events caused an increase or that NPIs caused a decrease. The damn bug seems to do its thing in distinctive waves no matter what we do or don’t do. Comparing similar regional waves in places with disparate policies shows little or no difference. 

    No long ago, the MSM was claiming that India proved the effectiveness of mask mandates. Oh well…

     

     

    • #12
  13. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Everybody in India was definitely not wearing a mask – at political rallies, or religious events, or even just going shopping. 

    • #13
  14. Clavius Thatcher
    Clavius
    @Clavius

    In Mumbai, to travel about the city, you need to be able to prove you are an essential worker, have had a negative test in the last 72 hours, or are a government official.

    Those government officials are really important to let roam around. 

    • #14
  15. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Aaron Miller (View Comment):

    Zafar: In Delhi there are shortages of oxygen, shortages of PPE, even the dead have to wait in line to be cremated. And there are shortages of vaccines. It looks bleak.

    I’m surprised it has taken so long for India’s death count to match our own. In fact, the death count is currently lower than ours, which is strange. Our count is inflated while theirs might be depressed. Maybe genetics is also a factor.

    But the recent spike seems severe.

    By official count, 3,601 people [in Delhi] have died this month, of them 2,267 in the last seven days alone in the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic which is terrorising and tormenting the city. In all of February, the death toll was 57, and in March 117.

    Prayers that vaccines can be more available in poor countries soon.

    Did Indians not gather in crowds last year? After a year of COVID, I’d expect the necessities of life have caused people to gather and the infection to spread long before this.

    Actually OUR reported deaths are probably an underestimate as well. As an example, IHME estimates we have had over 900K COVID deaths-that exceeds the total  umber of deaths from the “Spanish” flu.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

    IHME estimates India’s deaths currently at ~700K and that another ~800K will die in the next 4 months.

    • #15
  16. EHerring Coolidge
    EHerring
    @EHerring

    Clavius (View Comment):

    I have many colleagues from India and in India. Just about every family has been hit in some way.

    They are making extensive use of HCQ and Ivermectin. Most of those I know who are younger than 50 are recovering without issues. But a 35-year old did not make it. The stress on the medical system is making the situation much worse. Relatives are being told to find oxygen for patients.

    The deaths are clearly understated. 4,000 deaths a day would not cause lines at the crematoriums.

    A colleague lost his father and is returning with no prospect of return. It is heartbreaking.

    Thank you for the update. Trump would have done more for India after they sent us HCQ when he asked. I hope things improve for them.

    • #16
  17. Clavius Thatcher
    Clavius
    @Clavius

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Aaron Miller (View Comment):

    Zafar: In Delhi there are shortages of oxygen, shortages of PPE, even the dead have to wait in line to be cremated. And there are shortages of vaccines. It looks bleak.

    I’m surprised it has taken so long for India’s death count to match our own. In fact, the death count is currently lower than ours, which is strange. Our count is inflated while theirs might be depressed. Maybe genetics is also a factor.

    But the recent spike seems severe.

    By official count, 3,601 people [in Delhi] have died this month, of them 2,267 in the last seven days alone in the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic which is terrorising and tormenting the city. In all of February, the death toll was 57, and in March 117.

    Prayers that vaccines can be more available in poor countries soon.

    Did Indians not gather in crowds last year? After a year of COVID, I’d expect the necessities of life have caused people to gather and the infection to spread long before this.

    Actually OUR reported deaths are probably an underestimate as well. As an example, IHME estimates we have had over 900K COVID deaths-that exceeds the total umber of deaths from the “Spanish” flu.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

    IHME estimates India’s deaths currently at ~700K and that another ~800K will die in the next 4 months.

    Our deaths are severely overstated.  If you’ve died with Covid you are classed as dying of Covid.

    • #17
  18. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Clavius (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Aaron Miller (View Comment):

    Zafar: In Delhi there are shortages of oxygen, shortages of PPE, even the dead have to wait in line to be cremated. And there are shortages of vaccines. It looks bleak.

    I’m surprised it has taken so long for India’s death count to match our own. In fact, the death count is currently lower than ours, which is strange. Our count is inflated while theirs might be depressed. Maybe genetics is also a factor.

    But the recent spike seems severe.

    By official count, 3,601 people [in Delhi] have died this month, of them 2,267 in the last seven days alone in the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic which is terrorising and tormenting the city. In all of February, the death toll was 57, and in March 117.

    Prayers that vaccines can be more available in poor countries soon.

    Did Indians not gather in crowds last year? After a year of COVID, I’d expect the necessities of life have caused people to gather and the infection to spread long before this.

    Actually OUR reported deaths are probably an underestimate as well. As an example, IHME estimates we have had over 900K COVID deaths-that exceeds the total umber of deaths from the “Spanish” flu.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

    IHME estimates India’s deaths currently at ~700K and that another ~800K will die in the next 4 months.

    Our deaths are severely overstated. If you’ve died with Covid you are classed as dying of Covid.

    Not true

    • #18
  19. Clavius Thatcher
    Clavius
    @Clavius

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Aaron Miller (View Comment):

    Zafar: In Delhi there are shortages of oxygen, shortages of PPE, even the dead have to wait in line to be cremated. And there are shortages of vaccines. It looks bleak.

    I’m surprised it has taken so long for India’s death count to match our own. In fact, the death count is currently lower than ours, which is strange. Our count is inflated while theirs might be depressed. Maybe genetics is also a factor.

    But the recent spike seems severe.

    By official count, 3,601 people [in Delhi] have died this month, of them 2,267 in the last seven days alone in the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic which is terrorising and tormenting the city. In all of February, the death toll was 57, and in March 117.

    Prayers that vaccines can be more available in poor countries soon.

    Did Indians not gather in crowds last year? After a year of COVID, I’d expect the necessities of life have caused people to gather and the infection to spread long before this.

    Actually OUR reported deaths are probably an underestimate as well. As an example, IHME estimates we have had over 900K COVID deaths-that exceeds the total umber of deaths from the “Spanish” flu.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

    IHME estimates India’s deaths currently at ~700K and that another ~800K will die in the next 4 months.

    Our deaths are severely overstated. If you’ve died with Covid you are classed as dying of Covid.

    Not true

    I’d be happy to see evidence of undercounting.  I’ve seen stories saying 25% of the excess deaths over the last year were non Covid related.

    In any case, I’ll look for the evidence that led to my impression of over counting deaths.

    But in the absence of those links, LA County has recorded 24,000 deaths. If the CDC infection fatality rate of .24% is correct, all 10 million people in LA county have been infected.  So the IFR is low or the death count is high.

    • #19
  20. James Lileks Contributor
    James Lileks
    @jameslileks

    MiMac (View Comment):
    Actually OUR reported deaths are probably an underestimate as well. As an example, IHME estimates we have had over 900K COVID deaths-that exceeds the total  umber of deaths from the “Spanish” flu.

    I am not a scientist or a doctor or statistician or epidemiologist, but it seems to me that they are creating a rather elastic deviation of “Covid Deaths.” From your link:

    Our approach to estimating the total COVID-19 death rate is based on measurement of the excess death rate during the pandemic week by week compared to what would have been expected based on past trends and seasonality. However, the excess death rate does not equal the total COVID-19 death rate. Excess mortality is influenced by six drivers of all-cause mortality that relate to the pandemic and the social distancing mandates that came with the pandemic. These six drivers are: a) the total COVID-19 death rate, that is, all deaths directly related to COVID-19 infection; b) the increase in mortality due to needed health care being delayed or deferred during the pandemic; c) the increase in mortality due to increases in mental health disorders including depression, increased alcohol use, and increased opioid use; d) the reduction in mortality due to decreases in injuries because of general reductions in mobility associated with social distancing mandates; e) the reductions in mortality due to reduced transmission of other viruses, most notably influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and measles; and f) the reductions in mortality due to some chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular disease and chronic respiratory disease, that occur when frail individuals who would have died from these conditions died earlier from COVID-19 instead.

    To correctly estimate the total COVID-19 mortality, we need to take into account all six of these drivers of change in mortality that have happened since the onset of the pandemic.

    In other words, “total COVID-19 mortality” must be understood as a term that includes “not dying from COVID-19 at all.” Right?

    • #20
  21. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    James Lileks (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):
    Actually OUR reported deaths are probably an underestimate as well. As an example, IHME estimates we have had over 900K COVID deaths-that exceeds the total umber of deaths from the “Spanish” flu.

    I am not a scientist or a doctor or statistician or epidemiologist, but it seems to me that they are creating a rather elastic deviation of “Covid Deaths.” From your link:

    Our approach to estimating the total COVID-19 death rate is based on measurement of the excess death rate during the pandemic week by week compared to what would have been expected based on past trends and seasonality. However, the excess death rate does not equal the total COVID-19 death rate. Excess mortality is influenced by six drivers of all-cause mortality that relate to the pandemic and the social distancing mandates that came with the pandemic. These six drivers are: a) the total COVID-19 death rate, that is, all deaths directly related to COVID-19 infection; b) the increase in mortality due to needed health care being delayed or deferred during the pandemic; c) the increase in mortality due to increases in mental health disorders including depression, increased alcohol use, and increased opioid use; d) the reduction in mortality due to decreases in injuries because of general reductions in mobility associated with social distancing mandates; e) the reductions in mortality due to reduced transmission of other viruses, most notably influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and measles; and f) the reductions in mortality due to some chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular disease and chronic respiratory disease, that occur when frail individuals who would have died from these conditions died earlier from COVID-19 instead.

    To correctly estimate the total COVID-19 mortality, we need to take into account all six of these drivers of change in mortality that have happened since the onset of the pandemic.

    In other words, “total COVID-19 mortality” must be understood as a term that includes “not dying from COVID-19 at all.” Right?

    Obviously there are different numbers out there- but IHME’s estimate includes deaths due to delayed diagnosis & treatment of other diseases d/t medical system changes and it, in effect, includes deaths due to the lockdowns- ie all deaths d/t COVID and the societal changes induced by the pandemic. We conservatives complain constantly about the deaths due to the lockdown so we shouldn’t argue against including them in the sum total of deaths d/t COVID- b/c w/o having an estimate of the true cost of COVID the Cuomos& Whitmers of the world will claim that their programs have no downside except money and you heartless conservatives only care about money- when in fact their policies do not just spend money to save lives, they also cost lives as well. Subtract the CDC’s numbers from IHME and you have a good estimate of how many deaths the COVID related changes are causing- we need to know all 3 numbers to gauge the pandemic- deaths d/t the infection, deaths d/t our response and the sum total. We need to keep our politicians reminded that nothing comes free- failure to foresee unintended consequences is one of the most common failures of the left & government in general.

    • #21
  22. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    James Lileks (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):
    Actually OUR reported deaths are probably an underestimate as well. As an example, IHME estimates we have had over 900K COVID deaths-that exceeds the total umber of deaths from the “Spanish” flu.

    I am not a scientist or a doctor or statistician or epidemiologist, but it seems to me that they are creating a rather elastic deviation of “Covid Deaths.” From your link:

    Our approach to estimating the total COVID-19 death rate is based on measurement of the excess death rate during the pandemic week by week compared to what would have been expected based on past trends and seasonality. However, the excess death rate does not equal the total COVID-19 death rate. Excess mortality is influenced by six drivers of all-cause mortality that relate to the pandemic and the social distancing mandates that came with the pandemic. These six drivers are: a) the total COVID-19 death rate, that is, all deaths directly related to COVID-19 infection; b) the increase in mortality due to needed health care being delayed or deferred during the pandemic; c) the increase in mortality due to increases in mental health disorders including depression, increased alcohol use, and increased opioid use; d) the reduction in mortality due to decreases in injuries because of general reductions in mobility associated with social distancing mandates; e) the reductions in mortality due to reduced transmission of other viruses, most notably influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and measles; and f) the reductions in mortality due to some chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular disease and chronic respiratory disease, that occur when frail individuals who would have died from these conditions died earlier from COVID-19 instead.

    To correctly estimate the total COVID-19 mortality, we need to take into account all six of these drivers of change in mortality that have happened since the onset of the pandemic.

    In other words, “total COVID-19 mortality” must be understood as a term that includes “not dying from COVID-19 at all.” Right?

    A. is pretty obvious.

    B.  we know that people had needed procedures delayed because of Covid. Some died.

    C. maybe more an effect of the over reaction to Covid in many states, but still, people isolated, unemployed and with mental health problems ran into problems. Some died.

    D. reduction in mortality due to less travel etc. That should have reduced the overall death rate, and yet, 2020 set a record.  What else was going on? Oh yeah.

    E.  also should have reduced mortality rate.  And I can state as a clinician we saw almost zero flu this year, despite repeatedly testing for it.   Best explanation I’ve seen.

    F.  if someone with CHF died because of their Covid infection,  they didn’t get a chance to die from their CHF.

     

    So epidemiology is complex and not as black and white in the real world as it is on the internet.

    • #22
  23. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Clavius (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Aaron Miller (View Comment):

    Zafar: In Delhi there are shortages of oxygen, shortages of PPE, even the dead have to wait in line to be cremated. And there are shortages of vaccines. It looks bleak.

    I’m surprised it has taken so long for India’s death count to match our own. In fact, the death count is currently lower than ours, which is strange. Our count is inflated while theirs might be depressed. Maybe genetics is also a factor.

    But the recent spike seems severe.

    By official count, 3,601 people [in Delhi] have died this month, of them 2,267 in the last seven days alone in the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic which is terrorising and tormenting the city. In all of February, the death toll was 57, and in March 117.

    Prayers that vaccines can be more available in poor countries soon.

    Did Indians not gather in crowds last year? After a year of COVID, I’d expect the necessities of life have caused people to gather and the infection to spread long before this.

    Actually OUR reported deaths are probably an underestimate as well. As an example, IHME estimates we have had over 900K COVID deaths-that exceeds the total umber of deaths from the “Spanish” flu.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend

    IHME estimates India’s deaths currently at ~700K and that another ~800K will die in the next 4 months.

    Our deaths are severely overstated. If you’ve died with Covid you are classed as dying of Covid.

    Not true

    This is the meme that will not die.

    • #23
  24. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    An article on India’s response in The Lancet.

    A link to IHME’s India page.

    • #24
  25. Old Bathos Member
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    Zafar (View Comment):

    An article on India’s response in The Lancet.

    A link to IHME’s India page.

    I love COVID modeling. The happy assumptions about closures, travel bans, masks mandates etc. with cheery graphs showing lower predicted rates of incidence even though the actual detectable effects of such NPIs have ranged from tiny to non-existent across the planet over the past year.  Once the bug is out, travel bans are pretty useless.  Lockdowns and closures at best postpone some cases but at enormous cost if sustained.  Mask mandates (see, e.g., India) are pretty useless as opposed to using masks as part of a more comprehensive plan to isolate the vulnerable or focus on particular places.  But the desire to believe that we can whip out goodies from this useless toolbox and Do Something About It is unabated despite the data.

    The latest outbreak in India will peak soon if it has not already.  Cases will decline.  Because that is what COVID and pretty much every other respiratory pandemic do on their own.  The death count will lag about 10 days.  Then we will have stupid discussions about which policy caused the downturn and thus saved India.

    • #25
  26. Henry Castaigne Member
    Henry Castaigne
    @HenryCastaigne

    Old Bathos (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    An article on India’s response in The Lancet.

    A link to IHME’s India page.

    I love COVID modeling. The happy assumptions about closures, travel bans, masks mandates etc. with cheery graphs showing lower predicted rates of incidence even though the actual detectable effects of such NPIs have ranged from tiny to non-existent across the planet over the past year. Once the bug is out, travel bans are pretty useless. Lockdowns and closures at best postpone some cases but at enormous cost if sustained. Mask mandates (see, e.g., India) are pretty useless as opposed to using masks as part of a more comprehensive plan to isolate the vulnerable or focus on particular places. But the desire to believe that we can whip out goodies from this useless toolbox and Do Something About It is unabated despite the data.

    The latest outbreak in India will peak soon if it has not already. Cases will decline. Because that is what COVID and pretty much every other respiratory pandemic do on their own. The death count will lag about 10 days. Then we will have stupid discussions about which policy caused the downturn and thus saved India.

    So your saying that virus gonna virus?

    • #26
  27. D.A. Venters Inactive
    D.A. Venters
    @DAVenters

    Zafar (View Comment):

    An article on India’s response in The Lancet.

    A link to IHME’s India page.

    Old Bathos (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    An article on India’s response in The Lancet.

    A link to IHME’s India page.

    I love COVID modeling. The happy assumptions about closures, travel bans, masks mandates etc. with cheery graphs showing lower predicted rates of incidence even though the actual detectable effects of such NPIs have ranged from tiny to non-existent across the planet over the past year. Once the bug is out, travel bans are pretty useless. Lockdowns and closures at best postpone some cases but at enormous cost if sustained. Mask mandates (see, e.g., India) are pretty useless as opposed to using masks as part of a more comprehensive plan to isolate the vulnerable or focus on particular places. But the desire to believe that we can whip out goodies from this useless toolbox and Do Something About It is unabated despite the data.

    The latest outbreak in India will peak soon if it has not already. Cases will decline. Because that is what COVID and pretty much every other respiratory pandemic do on their own. The death count will lag about 10 days. Then we will have stupid discussions about which policy caused the downturn and thus saved India.

    I could be wrong,  but I think everyone understands the virus will have waves of severity, no matter what. Mitigation policies and practices are not about preventing waves, it’s about reducing the size of the waves.  If you graph it out, you’ll always see a wave, but the issue is how high are the numbers on the vertical axis of that graph.

    • #27
  28. Old Bathos Member
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    D.A. Venters (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    An article on India’s response in The Lancet.

    A link to IHME’s India page.

    Old Bathos (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    An article on India’s response in The Lancet.

    A link to IHME’s India page.

    I love COVID modeling. The happy assumptions about closures, travel bans, masks mandates etc. with cheery graphs showing lower predicted rates of incidence even though the actual detectable effects of such NPIs have ranged from tiny to non-existent across the planet over the past year. Once the bug is out, travel bans are pretty useless. Lockdowns and closures at best postpone some cases but at enormous cost if sustained. Mask mandates (see, e.g., India) are pretty useless as opposed to using masks as part of a more comprehensive plan to isolate the vulnerable or focus on particular places. But the desire to believe that we can whip out goodies from this useless toolbox and Do Something About It is unabated despite the data.

    The latest outbreak in India will peak soon if it has not already. Cases will decline. Because that is what COVID and pretty much every other respiratory pandemic do on their own. The death count will lag about 10 days. Then we will have stupid discussions about which policy caused the downturn and thus saved India.

    I could be wrong, but I think everyone understands the virus will have waves of severity, no matter what. Mitigation policies and practices are not about preventing waves, it’s about reducing the size of the waves. If you graph it out, you’ll always see a wave, but the issue is how high are the numbers on the vertical axis of that graph.

    Except that comparing jurisdictions that have the same wave timing (eg Wisconsin and Minnesota) but disparate policies don’t show any difference in the vertical.  The assumption that it could have been worse if we had not done X has been out forth without much empirical support. 

    Fauci told the Senate on July 7 that the downside of the curve in NY (and a presumably lower peak) was due to Cuomo following Fauci’s guidance–with no acknowledgement that the exact same curve happened in Sweden, Italy, MA and NJ.  He should have been fired on the spot for lying to the Senate or for being clueless about the nature of the pandemic and thus grossly incompetent.

    We were told by experts that cleaning surfaces was key and that doing so must have helped (CDC has since taken that back); that social distancing was key (oops, maybe no,t given the persistence of the bug in closed spaces and its ability to stay in very fine aerosols–somebody needs to explain to me the nature of the virus lipid envelope, why this critter was different in that regard and how it affects all this) ); that closing schools must have helped stop the spread (oops, kids are really lousy transmitters); and that the various closings and staged reopenings were keeping it under control with magical occupancy percentages.  Even more telling is the fact that the alleged superspreader events contributed zip.  We can’t seem to force an increase or decrease on those curves.

    I think it is critical that we not delude ourselves about what worked.  The costs of the policies to combat COVID have been horrific and I will not grant anybody unproven assumptions about what might have or might have worked since none of these NPI measures were innocuous and low-cost.  If you look at the pandemic planning literature pre-COVID, it was a given that travel bans were unlikely to help, that lockdowns could have only a short-term delaying benefit before becoming both too costly and ineffective and that the degree of mask efficacy was unclear.  That all stopped being the science once we Had To Do Something About It and post hoc attempts to pretend that any of this helped (when the science told us it probably would not) is not good for what to do next time.

     

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  29. EHerring Coolidge
    EHerring
    @EHerring

    They better be careful how high they exaggerate the Covid deaths. At what point does the death count become high enough to turn it into an act of war by China demanding an appropriate response from us?

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  30. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    A very articulate Barkha Dutt (journalist) being interviewed:

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