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This is a sequel/update of my earlier post Fire Wallensky.
Our deeply pathetic CDC Director Rochelle (“Impending Doom”) Wallensky responded to the news of an increase in cases in Michigan by saying Michigan must “close everything.” First off, now that we know with some certainty that SARS-COVID-19 has very definite seasonal preferences in very distinct regional patterns, an uptick at the same time of year in the same places was not a surprise or grounds for panic. Second, we know with some certainty that lockdowns and closure orders have enormous empirically verifiable costs and extensive harms but little or no impact on the spread of the virus. Third, the COVID-19 fatality rate per case is dropping rapidly as COVID fatalities remain low. Overall, CDC counts of US excess death continue to drop rapidly. (Dr. Wallensky can find that info in graphic form on this CDC web page.) Fourth, given the highly predictable curve of a COVID-19 outbreak, Michigan is likely already on the downslope for case numbers, once again averting “impending doom.”
Below is a ready-to-print crib sheet for Dr. Wallensky to take to her next presser–a single page of everything she needs to know about Michigan COVID numbers and what Whitmer did and whether any of it had any effect. (Spoiler alert: zero effect.)
The circled graph sections are to draw attention to the enormous difference in COVID cases versus deaths in Michigan between April last year and this year. The increase in cases is also likely due at least in part to the vastly greater availability and frequency of testing.
Details of Michigan actions interactively plotted on the case numbers graph can be found here on the Johns Hopkins Michigan site:
Even more detailed Michigan and other data can be found here at the National Governors Association site:
[NOTE: Updates of some of these tracking sources appear to be flagging. I suspect it is because after looking at the official actions plotted against case numbers in each state, the inescapable conclusion is that none of this crap accomplished anything.]Published in