The Chinese Timetable

 

What is the Chinese timetable for invading Taiwan?

Before he passed, my World of Tanks friend was convinced that China would never invade Taiwan, and if they did, could not do it successfully. I always disagreed because history is replete with examples of countries overestimating what they could and could not do in a conflict. Think Operation Barbarossa in WWII.

But, does China need to invade Taiwan? Likely they do, eventually. The question is how patient can they be?  To Beijing, Taiwan is part of China and must be reunited. How would the US react if California or Texas were to secede?

Long-term, China assumes it will win but will more recent developments force their hands earlier than they might want? China certainly has a looming demographic crisis. The one-child policy has altered their demographics to a point that it’s s almost catastrophic. Their population is aging and they do t have enough young workers to care for them. Couple that with the ~40MM surplus in males that won’t t be getting married and having kids, and the strain that puts on women who increasingly seek careers for themselves and not bearing lots of kids and you add more fuel to a potential fire.

What spark can set off this fire? Well, one would be economic failure by China. They have been lucky to date that they haven’t hit a major economic turndown like the Japanese did in the ’90s with the lost decade, but the odds favor such an issue. This is more likely to happen if the US actually leads an international coalition to limit China’s abuses of the WTO and other trade treaties.

I’d recommend this article that got me thinking about this on a rainy Sunday morning.

Some questions that I ponder.

First, could we project power into the China Sea and stop an invasion of Taiwan? Such an invasion would likely not be like D-day, but rather more like the Vicksburg campaign. An economic and maritime blockade until Taiwan is forced to capitulate. Do we have the carriers and sea power to break such a blockade?  Maybe. Our carriers are great, but can we sustain such an action for longer than a few months?

This brings to mind our second issue. Does the US have the endurance for such a conflict? Remembering 1991, that was a short and relatively bloodless conflict (for the US). 2003 was also relatively short and bloodless as well, but the aftermath was so taxing that it may have permanently damaged our psyche in a similar way to Viet Nam. There are similarities that deserve a deeper discussion I think. I have doubts that our putative leaders could actually gin up enough fervor to sustain anything longer than a six-month effort.

Lastly, the potential for a conflict to expand into a general war is not insignificant. There is no way that we can beat China in a general war, and they cannot beat us. Neither side could invade the other and win, absent the use of nuclear weapons. It would be a titanic clash of two Kaiju pounding each other and destroying the world around them until they are spent. Long before that happens the US government would collapse, and likely the Chinese as well.

And we haven’t discussed the issues of Chinese ownership of our debt and how much manufacturing is done in China. If we thought the toilet paper crisis was bad, think about how many things are Made in China that we wouldn’t be able to purchase.

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  1. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Dbroussa:

    But, does China Need to invade Taiwan? Likely they do, eventually. The question is how patient can they be?  To Beijing, Taiwan is part of China and must be reunited. How would the US react if California or Texas were to secede?

     

    How do you arrive at this conclusion (I’m taking your view to be they are similar)  while the historical cultural ethnicity issues that bind the respective nations’ populace are so different?

    • #1
  2. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    There is an excellent book that has come out on this issue, 2034, where Iran and China take on the U.S.  There are lots of miscalculations.  Lots of bravado.  Lots and lots of people die.  

    There is an issue that I have been mulling over.  It appears that COVID was an accidental release from China’s facility.  If so, what would happen if every nation “cancelled” their Chinese debt.

    • #2
  3. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    There is an excellent book that has come out on this issue, 2034, where Iran and China take on the U.S. There are lots of miscalculations. Lots of bravado. Lots and lots of people die.

    There is an issue that I have been mulling over. It appears that COVID was an accidental release from China’s facility. If so, what would happen if every nation “cancelled” their Chinese debt.

    Why would nations take such an adverse position if the release of the COVID was deemed to have been accidental?

    • #3
  4. Dbroussa Coolidge
    Dbroussa
    @Dbroussa

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    There is an excellent book that has come out on this issue, 2034, where Iran and China take on the U.S. There are lots of miscalculations. Lots of bravado. Lots and lots of people die.

    There is an issue that I have been mulling over. It appears that COVID was an accidental release from China’s facility. If so, what would happen if every nation “cancelled” their Chinese debt.

    I plan on reading that book when I finish the current set I am reading. I do like Adm Stavrides and he has a good understanding of the region and the fog that can lead to countries miscalculating their chances. Historically, the US should not have won its campaign for Independence, just as the South had very little real chance to win either, but they did. 

    • #4
  5. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    There is an excellent book that has come out on this issue, 2034, where Iran and China take on the U.S. There are lots of miscalculations. Lots of bravado. Lots and lots of people die.

    There is an issue that I have been mulling over. It appears that COVID was an accidental release from China’s facility. If so, what would happen if every nation “cancelled” their Chinese debt.

    Why would nations take such an adverse position if the release of the COVID was deemed to have been accidental?

    Negligent.  It could have have been prevented, but China failed to take the safeguards needed.  

    • #5
  6. Dbroussa Coolidge
    Dbroussa
    @Dbroussa

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Dbroussa:

    But, does China Need to invade Taiwan? Likely they do, eventually. The question is how patient can they be? To Beijing, Taiwan is part of China and must be reunited. How would the US react if California or Texas were to secede?

     

    How do you arrive at this conclusion (I’m taking your view to be they are similar) while the historical cultural ethnicity issues that bind the respective nations’ populace are so different?

    Mostly its the belief in China that Taiwan is a part of China and always has been. In a way, they provide a convenient external unifying enemy for Beijing to focus the populous against, similar to the Warsaw Pact  was for the US and NATO until the 80s. However, such enemies eventually require a resolution of some type. If the balance of forces becomes too far out of balance then people question the expense of a large military and focus of spending on non-consumer items. China has mitigated this because so much of their population is still in poverty, but that is changing. 

    I’d akso note that China doesn’t seem to care about the ethnic and even language issues in their view of China. Tibet, the Uigyrs, the fact that there are two main languages…none of that deters the Chinese view of their singular entity. I THINK that is because they need to keep their population focused outward as opposed to inward, but that’s likely an oversimplification of an extremely complex issue. 

    • #6
  7. Dr. Bastiat Member
    Dr. Bastiat
    @drbastiat

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    There is an excellent book that has come out on this issue, 2034, where Iran and China take on the U.S. There are lots of miscalculations. Lots of bravado. Lots and lots of people die.

    There is an issue that I have been mulling over. It appears that COVID was an accidental release from China’s facility. If so, what would happen if every nation “cancelled” their Chinese debt.

    Why would nations take such an adverse position if the release of the COVID was deemed to have been accidental?

    Negligent. It could have have been prevented, but China failed to take the safeguards needed.

    True.  And this is not the first time they’ve done this.

    If you’re playing around with explosives in your yard and you kill yourself accidentally, nobody cares.  But if you’re playing around with explosives in your yard and you kill a bunch of neighborhood children accidentally, then suddenly a lot of people care.  Even if it was an accident.

    I’ve been mulling this over.  China just killed a whole lot of people all over the world.  Millions, I think.  

    If they did this intentionally, was this an act of war?  I would say obviously yes.

    If they did this accidentally, was this an act of war?  I think so, yes.  

    If you’re playing around with deadly stuff, it’s your responsibility to protect others from your mischief.  If you don’t, and you kill people, then you have some explaining to do.  The Chinese have been far from forthcoming about exactly what happened.  In my view, unless they can come up with a really good explanation, this was an act of war.

    And I can’t imagine what explanation that would be.  How is this ok?  I just can’t imagine.

    I don’t mean to sound inflammatory.  But killing millions of people is inflammatory. 

    The Chinese are playing with fire, here.

    • #7
  8. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    If memory serves, the UK had an accidental release of smallpox from their lab.  They did their best to contain it, but one person died of small pox.  

    I have heard, but have not confirmed that there was a period of time that airline flights within China to and from Wuhan were stopped, while they allowed international fights with Wuhan. 

    Regardless of if China released COVID by accident, their failure to cooperate with the WHO ended up causing millions deaths. 

    If China were an individual, subject to Courts, they would be punished.  But China is a sovereign nation.  Punishing a country can be a very tricky thing, see WWI and WWII.    

    • #8
  9. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    Two points.

    I’m not sure we have either the force to defeat the Chinese in their backyard or the will to use it.   Recent war games in a US v China conflict have the US being defeated…badly.

    Regarding China and WuFlu.    We had a hand in what happened.   None other than the sainted Dr Frankenstein/Fauci championed the gain-of-function research that likely lead to WuFlu.   He thought it was worth the risk.   And after the US -against his advice – pulled funding from the US GOF research, Fauci funded the research in China.   

    • #9
  10. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Dbroussa (View Comment):
    I THINK that is because they need to keep their population focused outward as opposed to inward, but that’s likely an oversimplification of an extremely complex issue. 

    I think it all comes down to whether the policy is that of the people or of TPTB. Americans are now in the same posture.

    • #10
  11. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Dbroussa: The question is how patient can they be?

    The country is patient.  I’m not so sure about Xi Jinping.

    Dbroussa: What is the Chinese timetable for invading Taiwan?

    I think it all hinges on whether or not they think Biden will launch nukes.  If they ever realize he won’t, they’ll strike quickly and decisively.

    Dbroussa: And we haven’t discussed the issues of Chinese ownership of our debt and how much manufacturing is done in China. If we thought the toilet paper crisis was bad, think about how many things are Made in China that we wouldn’t be able to purchase.

    If there was a conflict, I would hope the US cancels our debt to them and nationalizes any Chinese-owned businesses in this country.  As for things made in China, my guess is most people already own enough stuff made in China that they could hold out for the amount of time it would take to ramp up productions lines here and in countries not trying to destroy us . . .

    Good post!

    • #11
  12. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    I think there are two viable approaches to a peaceful foreign policy with Communist China. One is where we are now where the policy divergence is so small that we won’t go to war over it. Eventually we will say it’s acceptable that they take Taiwan if we allow the Democrats to be successful in the moves they are trying now. The other is when we show a determination to maintain traditional American values as provided in the Constitution and to defend those positions as was evident during the Trump Administration.

    • #12
  13. RushBabe49 Thatcher
    RushBabe49
    @RushBabe49

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    There is an excellent book that has come out on this issue, 2034, where Iran and China take on the U.S. There are lots of miscalculations. Lots of bravado. Lots and lots of people die.

    There is an issue that I have been mulling over. It appears that COVID was an accidental release from China’s facility. If so, what would happen if every nation “cancelled” their Chinese debt.

    Why would nations take such an adverse position if the release of the COVID was deemed to have been accidental?

    Negligent. It could have have been prevented, but China failed to take the safeguards needed.

    True. And this is not the first time they’ve done this.

    If you’re playing around with explosives in your yard and you kill yourself accidentally, nobody cares. But if you’re playing around with explosives in your yard and you kill a bunch of neighborhood children accidentally, then suddenly a lot of people care. Even if it was an accident.

    I’ve been mulling this over. China just killed a whole lot of people all over the world. Millions, I think.

    If they did this intentionally, was this an act of war? I would say obviously yes.

    If they did this accidentally, was this an act of war? I think so, yes.

    If you’re playing around with deadly stuff, it’s your responsibility to protect others from your mischief. If you don’t, and you kill people, then you have some explaining to do. The Chinese have been far from forthcoming about exactly what happened. In my view, unless they can come up with a really good explanation, this was an act of war.

    And I can’t imagine what explanation that would be. How is this ok? I just can’t imagine.

    I don’t mean to sound inflammatory. But killing millions of people is inflammatory.

    The Chinese are playing with fire, here.

    Communists have little regard for individual human lives, including their own people. In the ongoing conflict for world supremacy which they are fighting, millions of people killed are collateral damage that they can ignore. That makes them more dangerous than many enemies. 

    • #13
  14. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Dbroussa (View Comment):
    Historically, the US should not have won its campaign for Independence, just as the South had very little real chance to win either, but they did.

    “The US” really didn’t. France was the biggest player on our side of the war. Many of the British weren’t too sure their side was right. Spain came in the war. Then the Dutch got involved. Britain was facing the second, third, and fourth most powerful nations on Earth of the time, plus a few rebellious colonies, and doing it mostly alone.

    • #14
  15. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Dbroussa: How would the US react if California or Texas were to secede?

    It’s more like what would happen if a rebel movement overthrew the US government, except for in Hawaii where the US government went into exile. Would the rebels insist Hawaii was still part of the US under the new regime? That’s a closer parallel to the PRC vs. Republic of China situation.

    • #15
  16. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    There is an excellent book that has come out on this issue, 2034, where Iran and China take on the U.S. There are lots of miscalculations. Lots of bravado. Lots and lots of people die.

    There is an issue that I have been mulling over. It appears that COVID was an accidental release from China’s facility. If so, what would happen if every nation “cancelled” their Chinese debt.

    Why would nations take such an adverse position if the release of the COVID was deemed to have been accidental?

    Negligent. It could have have been prevented, but China failed to take the safeguards needed.

    True. And this is not the first time they’ve done this.

    If you’re playing around with explosives in your yard and you kill yourself accidentally, nobody cares. But if you’re playing around with explosives in your yard and you kill a bunch of neighborhood children accidentally, then suddenly a lot of people care. Even if it was an accident.

    I’ve been mulling this over. China just killed a whole lot of people all over the world. Millions, I think.

    If they did this intentionally, was this an act of war? I would say obviously yes.

    If they did this accidentally, was this an act of war? I think so, yes.

    If you’re playing around with deadly stuff, it’s your responsibility to protect others from your mischief. If you don’t, and you kill people, then you have some explaining to do. The Chinese have been far from forthcoming about exactly what happened. In my view, unless they can come up with a really good explanation, this was an act of war.

    And I can’t imagine what explanation that would be. How is this ok? I just can’t imagine.

    I don’t mean to sound inflammatory. But killing millions of people is inflammatory.

    The Chinese are playing with fire, here.

    Communists have little regard for individual human lives, including their own people. In the ongoing conflict for world supremacy which they are fighting, millions of people killed are collateral damage that they can ignore. That makes them more dangerous than many enemies.

    Democrats are demonstrating a refined skill at ignoring collateral damage.

    • #16
  17. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):
    Communists have little regard for individual human lives, including their own people. In the ongoing conflict for world supremacy which they are fighting, millions of people killed are collateral damage that they can ignore. That makes them more dangerous than many enemies. 

    Exactly, so, yes, I am sure they have a time table, and it will probably be during this US administration, which is extremely weak.

    • #17
  18. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):

    Communists have little regard for individual human lives, including their own people. In the ongoing conflict for world supremacy which they are fighting, millions of people killed are collateral damage that they can ignore. That makes them more dangerous than many enemies.

    Democrats are demonstrating a refined skill at ignoring collateral damage.

    “Democrats” are not what they used to be. As with many institutions, there has been a Marxist takeover of the party.

    • #18
  19. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Arahant (View Comment):

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):

    Communists have little regard for individual human lives, including their own people. In the ongoing conflict for world supremacy which they are fighting, millions of people killed are collateral damage that they can ignore. That makes them more dangerous than many enemies.

    Democrats are demonstrating a refined skill at ignoring collateral damage.

    “Democrats” are not what they used to be. As with many institutions, there has been a Marxist takeover of the party.

    Of course, where else would they acquire such refinements?

    • #19
  20. Randy Webster Member
    Randy Webster
    @RandyWebster

    Dbroussa: But, does China Need to invade Taiwan? Likely they do, eventually. The question is how patient can they be?  To Beijing, Taiwan is part of China and must be reunited. How would the US react if California or Texas were to secede?

    I know how I’d react.  I’d say good riddance to CA, and can we join you to Texas.

    • #20
  21. Randy Webster Member
    Randy Webster
    @RandyWebster

    Dbroussa: women who increasingly seek careers for themselves and not bearing lots of kids and you add more fuel to a potential fire.

    Did you forget the “one child” policy?

    • #21
  22. DonG (2+2=5. Say it!) Coolidge
    DonG (2+2=5. Say it!)
    @DonG

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):
    If so, what would happen if every nation “cancelled” their Chinese debt.

    Not an option for the USA (see 14A sec 4).  The USA will pay their debts, if they have to take all the wealth to do it. 

     

    China has a 100 year plan they working.  They do play the long game.  I assume they will go with their usual playbook an infiltrate the institutions an payoff/compromise the politicians.  Somewhere in Taiwan there is the equivalent of the Biden Family that will come to power and sellout the island. 

    • #22
  23. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Randy Webster (View Comment):

    Dbroussa: women who increasingly seek careers for themselves and not bearing lots of kids and you add more fuel to a potential fire.

    Did you forget the “one child” policy?

    They’re up to two since 2015.

    • #23
  24. RushBabe49 Thatcher
    RushBabe49
    @RushBabe49

    Joe Biden’s minions will not intervene if the ChiComs invade Taiwan. Joe and his corrupt family have too much at stake. 

    • #24
  25. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    What would we do if Taiwan pulled a “Texas” and asked to be admitted as our 51st state?  At 23 million people, Taiwan would be the third most populous state, after California and Texas and before Florida.  Taiwan has the world’s 21st largest economy.  Their people are freedom loving?  We could move the Pacific Fleet from Hawaii to our state of Taiwan.  

    • #25
  26. Doctor Robert Member
    Doctor Robert
    @DoctorRobert

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    If memory serves, the UK had an accidental release of smallpox from their lab. They did their best to contain it, but one person died of small pox.

    I have heard, but have not confirmed that there was a period of time that airline flights within China to and from Wuhan were stopped, while they allowed international fights with Wuhan.

    Regardless of if China released COVID by accident, their failure to cooperate with the WHO ended up causing millions deaths.

    If China were an individual, subject to Courts, they would be punished. But China is a sovereign nation. Punishing a country can be a very tricky thing, see WWI and WWII.

    China DEVELOPED the virus, as I show in a post from yesterday (which mysteriously has not been promoted despite 28 Likes) and as commenters on my post show even more abundantly.

    “…failure to cooperate with the WHO ended up causing millions deaths.”  Not quite, but close enough.  Owning the WHO made cooperation irrelevant.

    All Western nations should default their China debts, seize all Chinese assets including the real estate owned by Chinese in places like Telegraph Hill) and expel Chinese students en masse.  As a start.  Let the Chinese sell to their own people, house their own peo[le, educate their own people, and stop killing our people.

    • #26
  27. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    What would we do if Taiwan pulled a “Texas” and asked to be admitted as our 51st state? At 23 million people, Taiwan would be the third most populous state, after California and Texas and before Florida. Taiwan has the world’s 21st largest economy. Their people are freedom loving? We could move the Pacific Fleet from Hawaii to our state of Taiwan.

    That could be  lot of fun, but just isn’t going to happen.

    • #27
  28. Dbroussa Coolidge
    Dbroussa
    @Dbroussa

    Randy Webster (View Comment):

    Dbroussa: women who increasingly seek careers for themselves and not bearing lots of kids and you add more fuel to a potential fire.

    Did you forget the “one child” policy?

    No, though, technically that policy has ended. Social pressure keeps families smaller as well as the increasing number of middle class Chinese which in a post agricultural economy tends to lead to smaller family sizes as well. The demographic nightmare of the one child policy is one of the big reason that China is going to face increasing pressure to alter its economic future through conflict. 

    • #28
  29. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    What would we do if Taiwan pulled a “Texas” and asked to be admitted as our 51st state? At 23 million people, Taiwan would be the third most populous state, after California and Texas and before Florida. Taiwan has the world’s 21st largest economy. Their people are freedom loving? We could move the Pacific Fleet from Hawaii to our state of Taiwan.

    I would certainly prefer Taiwan over DC or Puerto Rico . . .

    • #29
  30. TheRightNurse Member
    TheRightNurse
    @TheRightNurse

    Bob Thompson (View Comment):

    Dbroussa:

    But, does China Need to invade Taiwan? Likely they do, eventually. The question is how patient can they be? To Beijing, Taiwan is part of China and must be reunited. How would the US react if California or Texas were to secede?

     

    How do you arrive at this conclusion (I’m taking your view to be they are similar) while the historical cultural ethnicity issues that bind the respective nations’ populace are so different?

    Indeed.  The issue is not just one of succession, but of prior unification under colonization.  That’s like saying that Baja California and USA California need to be reunited.  It’s not really a thing.

    But to Taiwan, apparently China is a part of Taiwan.  At least in the sense that Taiwan is the “Real China” and the PRC is the invaders.

    Regardless, war is brewing.  China is facing war on many fronts, all in the name of continuing dictatorship.  Luckily, they have decent allies in Iran and Russia.

    • #30