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How Long Will the Ammunition Shortage Last?
If you’re like me, you’re extremely frustrated about the difficulty in finding ammunition for your guns. The shortage is becoming a long-term problem, and those of us who like to keep our skills honed are finding it difficult to practice. The situation is dire and is
predicted to last through 2021:
One Scottsdale, Arizona, based ammunition manufacturer, Ammo Incorporated, is currently facing an $80.1 million backlog in orders despite working around the clock.
‘We’re working right now seven days a week, 24 hours a day in all the manufacturing plants,’ said the company’s CEO, Fred Wagenhals. Ammo Incorporated has plants in Payson, Arizona, and Manitowoc, Wisconsin.
‘We just bought $2.8 million dollars-worth of machinery and equipment last week to increase our production and increase our volume,’ Wagenhals said.
Gun sales have also shot up:
The National Shooting Sports Foundation reports that gun sales are up 95 percent in the first half of 2020 compared to the same time frame in 2019. Ammunition sales have skyrocketed even more, up an astounding 139 percent over 2019.
Since these shortages have been going on for a while, what are the reasons? Some manufacturers are reluctant to build more plants because they are costly and can’t be completed quickly. They also wonder how long this surge in sales will continue, and if they can count on the demand to continue to grow. On the other hand, customers are likely becoming increasingly impatient with the lack of opportunity to practice and build their supplies.
The government and its positions are also a threat to gun owners. The Biden-Harris team has made it clear that they intend to restrict gun ownership even further than the laws already on the books. Prior to the election, the NRA called them the “most anti-gun presidential ticket in history.” The Democrats are still discussing a national registry, stricter purchasing requirements, and even a program for citizens to turn in their guns.
And there is the question about whether we can count on law enforcement to protect us. Will officers continue to be attacked by government agencies for simply doing their job, causing them to hesitate in potential shooting situations? Will civil unrest break out again as it did last summer? Will citizens be endangered not only by criminals but by naïve and novice gun owners—assuming they can find ammo?
Steps must be taken soon for us to be able to protect ourselves. Do you see resolutions for the lack of resources and the government’s determination to limit our rights?
Published in Guns
It does smell.
There were shortages under Obama, then under Trump. Maybe there is crazy demand, but, I don’t get it. The prices should be high enough to prevent shortages. That they are not means the prices are not being raised enough. Second, this shortage has been going on for what, three years? Are you telling me that is not enough time to bring more capacity online somewhere? Regulations stopping you? I thought Huston was a libertarian paradise. Build there.
That is one reason the AR is so popular…the owner can service it.
What’s the shelf life for ammo? Asking for a friend.
-Thanks for asking for me.
It depends (of course!) I found this article that offered quite a bit on shelf life.
Depends on ammo, the way manufactured, and how it is kept. A decade to a century. I have shot Cold War ammo, maybe 50 years with maybe one failure in a thousand.
We fired a bunch of 1920’s ammunition (9 mm Steyr) in 1985-ish. No misfires, no failure to feed or eject. Some of the cases cracked. That’s 60 year old ammunition made with 1920’s technology.
It’s not a conspiracy, it is supply and demand combined with a shortage of components. Brass is hard to come by…..primers are backordered by the millions. Big increases in gun sales have wiped out existing supplies. Ammunition plants had cut production and staff due to lower previous demands and are still trying to ramp back up. Covid restrictions have hurt supply chains and manufacturing outputs. This is all very well documented and explained by several ammunition manufacturers both large (Federal) and small (Black Hills). It absolutely does suck….forget 9mm, try to find .45 Colt or .44 Special ammo!
It has been a shortage for three years. It does not take three years to ramp up. Seems like short sightedness to me.
They would get bit by making too many capital investments when demand eased off. Re PPE and companies that ramped up last time only to see hospitals return to cheap foreign made stuff later, leaving them hanging.
So they choose not to meet demand. Seems to me over a billion dollars of demand would pay some some capital investments outright.
This, therefore, is an utter failure of capitalism. On guns and ammo. How ironic.
Yeah, see I kind of went about it in the opposite way. Every pay period, buy one box of every caliber I own, in whatever count the “standard” box for that caliber comes in. I did that for decades. The bite wasn’t bad for a father of four on a tight family budget (except for the price of match .308; don’t even get me started).
When I had enough that storing the ammo in the gun safe was negatively impacting the feng shui of the gun safe, I started stacking ammo into a Contico box. When that got filled up, I moved it to the temper controlled storage space, and bought another Contico box. And on.
So I’m fat and happy.
Or, I would be fat ‘n happy, but for that tragic canoe accident where I lost all my firearms. Que triste. I’ll hold on to the ammo stacks though, as a fond memento of better times.
Edit: “gun safe feng shui of the gun safe?”. Department of Redundancy Department much? Sorry, I’m a moron. Fixed.
Not sure about your neck of the woods, but in central NC, the shortage has been nowhere near 3 years (except for a .22 shortage fueled by long-term “THERE’S A SHORTAGE!” buying. Before COVID, shelves in every (other) caliber were plentiful. For example, even the 350 Legend, only introduced at the 2018 Shot Show, was readily available. Our supply of 100 round packs of 12 ga & 20 ga birdshot were frequently slammed full. A nearby store put out 9mm by the pallet.
Then COVID cut off the lead supply (the US closed its last lead smelter in 2015). Nothing coming from China. Supplies dropped, so demand rose. This was followed on by civil war fears sparked by a summer of rioting. More sales. The 10-lb cherry on the top of this sundae was “Hell, yea, we’re gonna take your guns!” Proposals floated included – randomly – mandatory surrender of zillions of (vaguely specified) guns, $1-per-round ammunition tax, ban on all online sales of guns and ammo, and Joe’s mumbled “ban on all guns capable of holding multiple rounds.”
Unofficial chatter is that demand is “10 times average,” and production capacity is based on “average sales”.
So, why no expansion in capacity? As noted, everybody is producing 24/7/365. Why not build more? This can be answered in one word: Remington. During a massive demand surge for AR-15s following calls for its banning, Remington alone built a new facility. But when the ban cries died down, so did sales. The market was pretty much saturated. You could get a decent AR for $500. Along with other company problems, including ongoing lawsuits concerning the Newtown shooting involving a Remington, that expansion debt liability pretty much sank them. Assets were divided and sold off. Some are already up and running under new ownership (e.g. Vista Outdoor now produces Remington ammo, including the highly brand-loyal Core-Lokt hunting rounds). But the Remington company, founded in 1816, is no more.
What’s going to happen to supply? Someone I know asked a person in the industry if he could see the light at the end of the tunnel in terms of ammo. The answer: “We haven’t even entered the tunnel yet.” Personally, I think it all comes down to what happens in the Senate. If legislative action gets crushed there, demand will wane. I’m pretty sure the lawsuits are already being drafted concerning whatever overreach Joe thinks he can get away with by Executive Order.
But if Biden gets his way in the Senate, then same-old-same-old for as long as the current balance of power exists.
I saw that accident, Boss! Shocked me so much, I stood up too quickly and MY canoe flipped with the same result. Darn the luck… I hope that’s the last time they held a firearms meet-and-greet on such a large body of water.
Where there is a market and money to be made, there will be a way found to supply it. Let history be our guide here, when Prohibition was introduced in 1919, it was naively believed by its supporters that U.S. citizens would just support the legislation and give up drinking to focus their attention on work, family, and creating a better society for all. By 1933, even Prohibition biggest supporters like John D. Rockefeller Jr. admitted,
“When Prohibition was introduced, I hoped that it would be widely supported by public opinion and the day would soon come when the evil effects of alcohol would be recognized. I have slowly and reluctantly come to believe that this has not been the result. Instead, drinking has generally increased; the speakeasy has replaced the saloon; a vast army of lawbreakers has appeared; many of our best citizens have openly ignored Prohibition; respect for the law has been greatly lessened; and crime has increased to a level never seen before.”
What do you know, another rich, white, liberal progressive who didn’t know what they were talking about even back then. But they sure seem to know how we are suppose to live our lives. Change the word “lawbreakers” out and replace it with Deplorables, or Hobbits, or Neanderthals and you get the picture.
And let us not forget the hugely successful U.S. lead global War on Drugs campaign, Oh wait….
All this to say, when the market, money and timing get right, someone will be there to supply, legally or otherwise. My recommendation now is take stock in what you have, determine what you absolutely need, limit its usage, and buy when you see it.
I would assume there is some smuggling going on. And I don’t much care.
The risks would probably be pretty big.
If you keep it at a reasonable controlled temperature, well, ammunition from WW2 still shoots fine….
Here’s the thing, it’s estimated that less then 10% of illegal drags coming into this country is actually seized. And every U.S. Federal Law Enforcement agency is suppose to be on the case looking for it. So, given the track record of success those organization have, that would be involved in supply of what ever contraband into this country, there is a very high probability they would be very successful in that endeavor. Also, the three main world producers of small arms ammunition (not including the U.S.) are: Russia, China, and Iran. I don’t think these players would have any problems supplying loaded ammunition, and it’s associated components, to any black market supplier. Or, simply go into business for themselves.
I lost everything in my “some-what” successful quantum time travel experiment, I bought off the internet. I managed to make it back with some help from a crazy professor and a kid named “Marty” traveling in a trick-out DeLorean, but the rest of my stuff is back in 1982. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TDgWBPaecQ
There are excise tax constraints on commercial reloading. It wouldn’t be trivial.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/03/17/nolte-great-americans-are-buying-guns-bidens-stimulus-checks/
You still live in Ga don’t you? There wasn’t an ammo shortage in Ga for 3 years…it has basically been a year.
That’s gonna go on their permanent record.
There are rivers in New York that are so full of guns you can walk across them.
I have been hearing about ammo shortages back into Obama’s term. I guess that was all a lie. Good to know
There may be some confusion around those who order through the mail or buy locally.
Could all have been false news too. All I know is that I heard about ammo supply issues back to Obama. Again, maybe just hype wanting me to stock up.
So much news is fake.
I still say a year of shortages, being told “we have not even entered the tunnel” and that this is no hope at all, shows a total and complete failure of the capitalist system to adjust. Puts to lie all the globalism arguments, actually.
For me there has been shortages for the last few years in that some calibers were harder to find at different times than others. But about a year ago with the lockdowns and BLM riots it has gotten insane in that it has become harder and harder to find ammo locally and the prices have increased by 500% or more for some calibers.