Coronavirus Update: Excess Deaths Analysis

 

We are suffering a major spike in Covid deaths, with reported daily deaths exceeding the prior spike in late April. There is good reason for the recent tightening of lockdown and mask requirements, as annoying as they may be, though the situation will vary by individual location.

I’ve read comments by a number of Ricochetti expressing skepticism of the Covid death reports. These concerns are understandable and legitimate, as the coding and reporting of cause of death are never perfect. There is an argument that people are being reported as dying from Covid when, perhaps, they only died with Covid. I don’t know of a way to fully evaluate this concern, but I think that comparing reported Covid deaths to overall “excess deaths” will provide a reasonable reality-check on the figures.

I have calculated “excess deaths” based on weekly CDC data of total deaths, defining “excess deaths” in 2020 as the number of reported deaths, for each week in 2020, that exceeds the average reported deaths for 2017-2020 in the corresponding week.  Note that “excess deaths” are significantly underreported in recent weeks, as all of the deaths for these weeks have not yet been reported.

Here is the chart:

Reported Covid deaths is the red line, and my calculation of excess deaths is the blue line.  As you can see, the spike in excess deaths in March-April was even higher than the reported Covid deaths, and this was true of the Covid “second wave” in the summer.  The Covid death figures show the recent spike, which I expect to be reflected in the CDC death figures as the reports are processed.

Note that I truncated the excess deaths line at November 14, because the reporting for the recent weeks is so incomplete that the calculation shows a large negative number (which would mess up the chart).

Total reported Covid deaths for the dates in the graph are 281,185, for March 1 to December 5.  Excess deaths, by my calculation, are 343,675 for the same period — and remember, this number will get higher as full death counts are reported for the last couple of months.

Here is the graph of total reported weekly deaths for 2020, compared to the average for 2017-2019, together with a line for the difference (which are the “excess deaths”).  The excess death line, also shown in blue, is the same as in the first graph, though the larger scale on the y-axis makes the peaks appear less accentuated.

The yellow line is weekly deaths in 2020 from all causes, and the green line is the 2017-2019 average of weekly deaths from all causes (for the corresponding week).

I think that this data demonstrates that the Covid death reporting is reasonably accurate.  It is possible that some non-Covid deaths are being erroneously classified as Covid deaths, and it is also possible that some Covid deaths are missed in the Covid reporting.  I should note that some of the excess deaths in 2020 may be the indirect result of Covid — for example, due to people without Covid who die from another cause because they have not sought treatment, or “deaths of despair.”

I hope that this information proves useful.  We’re in for a rough time, with average weekly Covid deaths exceeding 15,000 at present, and climbing.

ChiCom delenda est.

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  1. Lois Lane Coolidge
    Lois Lane
    @LoisLane

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    No, Mark, it’s not. One of the functions of government is to enact measures to protect the public health and safety.

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    This is true everywhere outside of that fantastical, invisible Colorado valley in Ayn Rand’s imagination.

    First, thanks for the analysis.  You’re very good at looking at the numbers, and I appreciate the breakdowns in easy to understand articles.  I came here because I read your comment on the Powerline podcast.  I listen sometimes because of Hayes, but I find “Lucretia” annoying.  I think she often says things that just don’t seem to be tied to a lot of critical thought.   

    Second, the conclusion of lockdowns and mask mandates being justified does not really follow because these are just actions, not necessarily measures that actually protect the public health and safety per the impact that they have on the society, i.e. I currently have a painful infection festering in my foot, which is bad for my body; therefore, I should stick my foot into a lit fireplace to protect the rest of my body….  That’s an action, to be sure, but….  Of course, that’s the lockdown reaction to spikes.  The mask mandate reaction would be similar to putting a bandaid on my foot.  

    It seems much more reasonable to say spikes should make vulnerable people want to stay away from others more; nursing/retirement homes should probably be shut down or have employees/visitors do rapid testing before entering the facility; people should continue to socially distance as much as possible when inside and make prudent, adult decisions about whether or not they want to attend events/stores/venues in which this is difficult.   (The world is so online now that there really is absolutely no reason anyone should ever have to leave their house.)

    Maybe government makes it difficult to fire someone who has an established co-morbidity when they have to work from home, though that creates hazards of a different sort as well.  I totally get the idea that government should provide income to those people who have established co-morbidities and thus really shouldn’t be out in public.  That would be an action that “followed” the data.   

    The Ayn Rand comment is just snarky.  ;) 

    • #31
  2. Lois Lane Coolidge
    Lois Lane
    @LoisLane

    Sandy (View Comment):
    There are all sorts of things that would be good to do, especially protecting the vulnerable, but what is the evidence for more restrictions since we cannot stop the virus but only slow it down? As the Great Barrington Declaration authors wrote, lockdowns have never been seen as good public health policy. Let people make their own decisions about risk, but don’t destroy some people’s lives for the supposed sake of others, and especially the young for the old (and I am pushing 80) not that we really care about the old, since we have forced so many to die alone. 

    Exactly.  

    • #32
  3. Roderic Coolidge
    Roderic
    @rhfabian

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio…: I think that this data demonstrates that the Covid death reporting is reasonably accurate. It is possible that some non-Covid deaths are being erroneously classified as Covid deaths, and it is also possible that some Covid deaths are missed in the Covid reporting. I should note that some of the excess deaths in 2020 may be the indirect result of Covid — for example, due to people without Covid who die from another cause because they have not sought treatment, or “deaths of despair.”

    I think this is true, as I’ve always said.  (As if doctors could mistake a COVID death with something else.  Sheesh!  Totally different from most other causes of ICU death, folks.)

    The trouble is, what do we do about it?  We’ve got conservatives showing us the infection and death rates and saying this means that masks don’t work.  Then some of these same people show us data that says that people are not getting infections at restaurants, they are mostly getting infected at home!   And this means we don’t need to shut down restaurants.  Well, think about this for about 1 minute.  Do people wear masks at home?   Hum?  Maybe the fact that infection rates are low where people are wearing masks and high where they are not is evidence that they work, eh?   

    Not that I’m advocating wearing masks at home.  The point is, we don’t really know what the heck is going on.  

    Why are infection rates in Texas leveling off even while rates in California are shooting through the roof?  What are we doing right in Texas?  I have no idea.  I’m pretty sure CA is a lot more locked down that Texas.  There are so many factors at work.  

    • #33
  4. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    My point is that there is good reason for authorities to impose additional restrictions now, as the daily death rate is increasing.

    Doesn’t that assume that lockdowns are actually effective, for which – last I heard – there is little or no real evidence?

    • #34
  5. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Lois Lane (View Comment):
    (The world is so online now that there really is absolutely no reason anyone should ever have to leave their house.)

    Except for the reliance on other people who do leave their homes, to bring you food and books and whatever else you might want, and to repair those services that might allow YOU but not THEM to stay at home…  And so much more…

    • #35
  6. RyanFalcone Member
    RyanFalcone
    @RyanFalcone

    We need a similar analysis of people who have died because they were too fearful of leaving their homes and died of ailments that could’ve been treated had that fear not intervened. We also need a similar analysis of excess suicides.

    Also, I’m sceptical of a 2017-2019 average as a baseline.  Deaths are rising as our population rises and gets older. 120K additional jobs created in a month doesn’t even cover population growth. 300K additional deaths in 10 months could be a rounding error. 

    • #36
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