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Coronavirus Update: Death Toll Increasing
It’s been a long time since my last Coronavirus update. Both Western Europe and the US are experiencing a significant increase in the death toll. In Western Europe, it’s a second wave. In the US, it’s more like a third wave, though the second wave (in the summer) was pretty small.
Here is a graph of daily Covid deaths per million, for the US and Western Europe, showing a seven-day moving average. “Western Europe” is the 15 European countries west of the old Iron Curtain, down to little Luxembourg but excluding the micro-states.
As you can see, Western Europe (blue) had an earlier and higher peak, no second wave in the summer, and is having a second wave with a higher death rate than the US. The US had a small second wave in the summer, and is now in a third wave.
Here is the cumulative graph of total Covid deaths per million:
Overall, the US has a higher death rate from Covid than Western Europe. This may shift again, due to the current waves. US performance isn’t as bad as this graph might suggest, because the Western European average is pulled down by the happily low death rate, thus far, in Germany.
Here is a comparison of the cumulative deaths per million in the US and the biggest four Western European countries:
As you can see, the US death rate per capita is a bit lower than the UK, and Italy, and about equal to France. Germany’s unusually low death toll appears at the bottom.
Germany is having a winter wave, though, as are the other Western European countries. Here is the daily deaths graph for the same five countries, again showing the seven-day moving average:
The UK, Italy, and France all had much higher spikes between March and May than the US, but none of these four Western European countries had a summer wave. You can see that the winter wave in the UK, Italy, and France are considerably worse than in the US, and that Germany’s Covid death toll is rising like it never did before (though it still remains lower than the others).
I have a hypothesis about the summer wave in the US. There are doubtless many factors involved, but it may be principally a matter of weather. The first wave in the US was heavily concentrated in the New York City area. The summer wave seems to have occurred principally in the hot states — particularly Texas, Florida, and Arizona. The winter wave in the US appears to be occurring in the cold states.
To test this hypothesis, I calculated daily Covid deaths per million (seven-day moving average) for the following regions of the US:
- The NYC area — New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut
- The Sun Belt — Texas, Florida, and Arizona
- The Frozen North — Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota
- The rest of the country
Here is the graph:
The big green spike is New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, which have had low death rates since around July 1. The red line is Texas, Florida, and Arizona, and you can see that there was a summer hump in July and August. The cold states — Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, the blue line — had a modest first wave, low death figures through the summer, and have now increased significantly. The overall rate for the entire country is the yellow line, and the rest of the country is the purple line (which is a bit hard to read, but doesn’t vary as much).
That’s all for my analysis. I know that many of us have been annoyed by increased Covid precautions and mandates in many areas. The city of Tucson has actually imposed a 10 pm curfew starting tonight — though happily, I live a bit outside the city proper, so it won’t have much of an effect on me. There’s an exception for travel to work, anyway.
Hang in there, everyone, especially those in cold country like the good Mr. Lileks. It looks like the vaccine should be rolling out soon.
ChiCom delenda est.
Published in Healthcare
If you have that much trouble differentiating reality from fiction, maybe you should stay clear of politics altogether. :-)
Or it could go the other way by recognizing that politics is replete with entertaining fiction so other sources of fiction are unnecessary.
What if they are overstated by 1600%? I have read that only 6% of Wuhan Flu deaths don’t have co-morbidities.
And even in those there could be something of which we are not aware.
The same can be said of flu deaths. These illnesses tend to kill vulnerable people. They may have other illnesses but covid makes it fatal. At least a 1/3 0f Americans have one or more of the co-morbidities.
From Hospital Payments and the COVID-19 Death Count https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/
“The CARES Act created the 20% add-on to be paid for Medicare patients with COVID-19. The act further created a $100 billion fund that is being used to financially assist hospitals — a “portion” of which will be “used to reimburse healthcare providers, at Medicare rates, for COVID-related treatment of the uninsured”.
I hate referring to a “fact check” site but I remembered reading this elsewhere and I thought maybe people were confusing this with states “being paid” for COVID deaths.
It’s just a difference in semantics, really. If a patient has COVID they can get more money for it than not, whether the patient survives or not.
As the hospitals are getting more crowded, they start sending home patients with covid with conditions, for instance with low oxygen levels, whom they would have admitted before, in order to save beds for the more seriously ill. Happened here in AZ during the big surge this summer.
If they get paid when the patient dies but not otherwise, that would create a different incentive system.
The monies appropriated by the feds is not all given/paid to the hospitals – they must account for it & may have to repay it to the feds. The intention was to aide hospitals in updating their HVAC systems etc to handle a pandemic from a respiratory virus AND to keep hospitals afloat while canceling elective procedures, which are the cash cows for hospitals. Many hospitals have easily spent 6-7 figures worth of improvements/alterations to handle the outbreak- improve air handling, added ICU beds, ventilators etc. This doesn’t include the current scramble for personnel- RNs are being offered $140/hr to recruit/retain staff.
I don’t have data on this, but I suspect that the comorbidities just make someone more susceptible to Covid, if that. Just because you’re fat (like me) or have some other health issue doesn’t mean that the Covid didn’t get you.
I’m thinking of doing another post comparing reported Covid deaths with overall excess deaths.
One data point that I would like to see broken out in more detail are numbers for covid hospitalization. Right now it is a lump sum of all hospitalized patients with covid. For the first time, I recently saw a more detailed breakdown from Iowa – in that state 73% of those hospitalized with covid, had covid as a primary diagnosis, while for 27% it was a secondary diagnosis (in other words, they’d been hospitalitized initially for something other than covid). I’ve yet to see this breakdown anywhere else either at CDC or in other states.
Both numbers are useful. The total hospitalized with covid provides information on the overall spread of covid, while those hospitalized with covid as a primary diagnosis provides data on the more serious cases because of covid.
I meant that if the patient tests positive for COVID or maybe even has arguable systems whether tested or not, they would have an incentive to treat them more as a COVID patient whether really needed or not – whether they would need more intensive treatment for COVID than they might need for whatever other problem(s) they might have – just because COVID pays more.
The issue of whether or not they end up dying could have more to do with who might try to make trouble for the treaters, whether that be relatives or a coroner…
My daughter is an ER doc. I can assure you the hospitals are not calling the ER and saying “hey, we may not make our numbers this quarter, better create some covid cases, and maybe knock off a few of the troublesome ones while you’re at it”.
I just had a Facetime with my little grandson in Boston. The question came up, are we going to be with grandma and grandpa at Christmas? He said, “I hope not”. Someone asked “Why?” He said, “because I don’t want to have to get tested for covid.”
For me there are only two sides in this debate. My side is outnumbered. The other guys are winning: I probably won’t see my beloved grandson or granddaughter or my beloved son or his wonderful wife. And the other guys have brainwashed the generation of my grandchildren: they are now on the other side, which in my way of thinking is the side of lies and death.
Yes. My daughter is terrified of walking into any place without a mask. And I can’t blame your grandson. Having a stick stuck up his nose to the back of his throat is an awful experience.
Not what I meant. No “invention” required. But if someone has COVID symptoms and/or tests positive, they have a financial incentive to treat them as a COVID patient even if COVID doesn’t seem to be their primary problem. And since the guidelines may require them to isolate such patients in ways that require the additional facilities they paid extra for at government insistence, whether or not they are actually contagious. In those cases the hospitals etc are bearing additional costs, so it would actually be irresponsible for them to not treat/categorize/code such patients accordingly in order for those costs to be reimbursed.
There are now some alternatives. We’ve been tested twice with shallow nasal swabs that tickle a bit but that’s all. Better than that long swab that feels like it is going to their brain.
Some of the paper antigen tests collect a saliva sample.
In California the Governor will declare a state of emergency if ICU usage hits 85%.
Last year ICU usage was 90% in California in December.
In fact most Decembers ICU usage is about 90% in California!
That’s why they picked 85%. To ensure lockdown, and earlier!
Btw, since SARS-CoV2 was here last December 85% could be the beginning of round 2.
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