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Coronavirus Update: Death Toll Increasing
It’s been a long time since my last Coronavirus update. Both Western Europe and the US are experiencing a significant increase in the death toll. In Western Europe, it’s a second wave. In the US, it’s more like a third wave, though the second wave (in the summer) was pretty small.
Here is a graph of daily Covid deaths per million, for the US and Western Europe, showing a seven-day moving average. “Western Europe” is the 15 European countries west of the old Iron Curtain, down to little Luxembourg but excluding the micro-states.
As you can see, Western Europe (blue) had an earlier and higher peak, no second wave in the summer, and is having a second wave with a higher death rate than the US. The US had a small second wave in the summer, and is now in a third wave.
Here is the cumulative graph of total Covid deaths per million:
Overall, the US has a higher death rate from Covid than Western Europe. This may shift again, due to the current waves. US performance isn’t as bad as this graph might suggest, because the Western European average is pulled down by the happily low death rate, thus far, in Germany.
Here is a comparison of the cumulative deaths per million in the US and the biggest four Western European countries:
As you can see, the US death rate per capita is a bit lower than the UK, and Italy, and about equal to France. Germany’s unusually low death toll appears at the bottom.
Germany is having a winter wave, though, as are the other Western European countries. Here is the daily deaths graph for the same five countries, again showing the seven-day moving average:
The UK, Italy, and France all had much higher spikes between March and May than the US, but none of these four Western European countries had a summer wave. You can see that the winter wave in the UK, Italy, and France are considerably worse than in the US, and that Germany’s Covid death toll is rising like it never did before (though it still remains lower than the others).
I have a hypothesis about the summer wave in the US. There are doubtless many factors involved, but it may be principally a matter of weather. The first wave in the US was heavily concentrated in the New York City area. The summer wave seems to have occurred principally in the hot states — particularly Texas, Florida, and Arizona. The winter wave in the US appears to be occurring in the cold states.
To test this hypothesis, I calculated daily Covid deaths per million (seven-day moving average) for the following regions of the US:
- The NYC area — New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut
- The Sun Belt — Texas, Florida, and Arizona
- The Frozen North — Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota
- The rest of the country
Here is the graph:
The big green spike is New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, which have had low death rates since around July 1. The red line is Texas, Florida, and Arizona, and you can see that there was a summer hump in July and August. The cold states — Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, the blue line — had a modest first wave, low death figures through the summer, and have now increased significantly. The overall rate for the entire country is the yellow line, and the rest of the country is the purple line (which is a bit hard to read, but doesn’t vary as much).
That’s all for my analysis. I know that many of us have been annoyed by increased Covid precautions and mandates in many areas. The city of Tucson has actually imposed a 10 pm curfew starting tonight — though happily, I live a bit outside the city proper, so it won’t have much of an effect on me. There’s an exception for travel to work, anyway.
Hang in there, everyone, especially those in cold country like the good Mr. Lileks. It looks like the vaccine should be rolling out soon.
ChiCom delenda est.
Published in Healthcare
Technical note: My data source is Johns Hopkins (here). National population data from Worldometer (here). The Johns Hopkins data file for the US, which reports by county, includes population figures.
I know we don’t have COVID data from last fall and winter, but how do overall deaths compare to then? If it was around without our knowledge, maybe there’s something comparable.
Biden’s fault! He’s POTUS and it is what he projected on President Trump.
Impeach Biden!
#NotMyPresident
My like is because you are funny. Good one.
Do you know if those associated with the vaccine development have reported any significant changes in the virus that might cause any reductions in its effectiveness? I realize that perhaps you are not going to that detail in your look, just asking.
I think you mean the death RATE has been increasing. The death TOLL, which is a total, will be increasing “forever.”
Do all of the countries use the same metric for defining a “covid death” ? In particular, the Germans, for whom my prejudicial sense is that they are very precise, may not include the fringe deaths that the US attributes to covid deaths (for example those “assumed to have covid” or the motorcycle accident fatality, who coincidentally also had covid…) If the metric is different, this would skew the graphs.
The current strain of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the USA and most of Europe is different than the two previous widespread strains that have circulated. This one is significantly more contagious but less lethal.
Everything we know to date indicates that the vaccines being prepared for release are effective against the known strains of the virus.
The data released so far indicates that the vaccines are effective but we do not know how long the vaccine induced immunity will last.
I gave up believing any “covid death” numbers many months ago.
I’ve read that at least some hospitals get something like $40,000 for each “covid death” they have, so there is definitely an incentive to count as many as possible.
It is weird that California, the most populous state, doesn’t fit with other groups of states.
I see in Michigan that cases peaked a few weeks back and it looks like deaths have peaked recently. (from Michigan.gov)
What is odd about the Michigan.gov data is that it doesn’t match the data from Oakland County. Below are the daily deaths for Oakland County (wealthy suburbs of Detroit) from Michigan.gov. There are about 5/day a peak of 12.
However, from oakgov.maps.arcgis.com I get this table of data. I assume the data is good, since is local and Oakland is a wealthy county. How to reconcile official government sources when one has 6’s and other has 1’s?
Reimbursements are made based on CPT and DRG codes, not on what is or is not on a death certificate.
Differences in how Covid deaths are counted probably exist between the states in the US as well and among various reports within those states.
But if they are coded in a way that indicates Covid isn’t that likely to be what goes on the death certificate?
Yet flu rates are still very low per CDC. That is not a good thing COVID increasing. Hopefully the T-cell immunity is about three times higher than those with the anti-bodies per the Stockholm study. If that is true we are around a third of the US population with immunity. Even if you assume COVID deaths are overstated by 25%. We still have not gotten below epidemic levels. Excess deaths have been on the rise last month. We are over 10% now it seems (the data lags by 2 weeks).
I wonder how much is from higher Cancer/Suicide/Drug Overdoses mortality rates.
In the peculiar case of covid, which apparently
to know the impact of these death tolls, we’d need to know the change in life expectancy in these countries.
Do you have that info?
Change in life expectancy neutralizes both of these distorting effects.
I.Do.Not.Care. I ignore all Covid statistics everywhere. I do not have Covid, and I am firmly convinced that I will not get Covid. I am sick and tired of being constantly bombarded with nagging messages about mask-wearing and social-distance-keeping, wherever I go. I try not to wear a mask, and I do not stay six feet away from every other person, indoors or out. I refuse to be a part of the War of All Against All.
In most jurisdictions the death certificate has a space for (in layperson’s terms) what disease or injury or whatever was the diagnosed or within good medical judgement was the cause of the death. There is space (or spaces) to list additional factors. The CDC guidance was to remind those responsible to list Covid-19 as a contributing factor where appropriate.
Where Covid-19 was a factor but not the cause of death, then the death is not a “Covid death.”
Certainly there are errors, there always are, but those errors will not significantly alter the numbers one way or another. If a person is suspected of improperly filling out a death certificate, the consequences can be quite damaging.
If Covid-19 is present and not the cause of death it will be listed as a contributing factor but not the cause of death. If a person is squashed by a falling piano and it is revealed that he also has Covid, the death certificate should state the piano killed him and Covid may or may not be a contributing factor. If the lungs were compromised such that he could not get out of the way of the piano, then it should be listed as a contributing factor. If he was asymptomatic and appeared healthy by the examining physician, then it was not a contributing factor. Ridiculous example for illustration only.
It is very difficult to find specific information about how each country is counting covid deaths. I’ve run across many articles stating some country is doing X and another Y, but I’ve never felt confident enough to make judgments based on that. If one country had a per million death rate of 750 and another 650 I can only conclude they are in the same general range, not that one has a higher or lower death rate than the other.
The current per million death rate in the U.S. is 861. There are 19 other countries within 25% less to 25% more than the U.S. as of today; 8 in Latin American, 10 in Europe, and Armenia. Deaths are increasing quickly right now in several other countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, so I suspect there will be others closer to the U.S. in a few weeks. Right now there are about 3 dozen countries with daily death rates running between (scaled up to U.S. population) 1,000 and 5,000 so in same range as America.
Germany and Switzerland had many cases in the first wave but lower fatality rates than others in Western Europe. As Jerry has pointed out, German covid deaths have recently been exceeding those in the first wave and Switzerland has been very hard hit this time around with more than 75% of its covid deaths since late October.
Doctors define cases? Coroner determines cause of death?
I think recent “emergency” measures have changed that for covid.
Is the CDC sharing their data?
or maybe Covid is the $Golden$ child?
I have as much faith in CDC honesty as I have in Democrats counting ballots.
No – additional codes were developed – had to be since it was unknown when the latest codes were distributed – but there is no special bounty on inventing fake Covid deaths.
Yes, and their data comes from the states. Most state websites have the data that goes to the CDC. And the data on the Hopkins and Worldometers sites is from the states, not CDC.
I’ve heard that, but I don’t believe it unless I have more details of how it works. Someday the government will pay hospitals to kill people, but I’m not sure we’re quite there yet.
There are two different arguments going on at the same time within any of our discussions of COVID. One is whether the virus is or is not dangerous enough to be worthy of the way it has been covered by the media, reacted to by government officials and feared by citizens.
The other is whether the measures inflicted on Americans to mitigate or “destroy” the virus are warranted, effective, appropriate, legal under the constitution, causing-more-harm-than-good etc.
The data looks smoother in a weekly format, and “significant” is a subjective adjective, IMOH:
(J12.0–J18.9)3Deaths involving COVID-19 and Pneumonia, excluding Influenza
(U07.1 and J12.0–J18.9)3All Deaths involving Influenza, with or without COVID-19 or Pneumonia
(J09–J11), includes COVID-19 or Pneumonia4Deaths involving Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19
(U07.1 or
J09–J18.9)5
There are caveats about the data. Here’s the link:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Have you (re-)watched Soylent Green recently?
I don’t mean for the… obvious main point (to avoid spoilers)… but about the “death centers.” Or as they put it, “Going Home.”
I try to stay away from fiction. That way I don’t have to spend the mental energy separating it from reality. Reality is difficult enough as it is.
Some people seem to handle it OK, but for me and my limited mental capacity it’s just too much work.
That is really interesting to me. I read all of the real Robert Ludlum novels and I was always conservative and dedicated to our Constitution but until Obama was elected POTUS I was never deeply interested in government and politics. Since that time, I’m not much interested in anything else but I’m not interested in tv viewing and the fiction of Clancy and that ilk would put me in overload since it was so like real life so I resorted to 20th century simple detective murder mystery fiction. That’s my entertainment now.