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Will Biden Trigger War in the Middle East?
When President Trump pulled us out of the Iranian deal, also known as the JCPOA, it was one of the most sensible and appropriate actions of his Presidency. The deal, which was supposed to “slow” the Iranian development of a nuclear weapon, was a sham from the start: they refused to adhere to certain inspection guidelines from the beginning, then violated others as time passed; the IAEA figuratively and repeatedly threw up its hands in frustration. When we pulled out, the Iranians used our lack of support as a further excuse to continue to ignore the limitations of the agreement.
Now with the opportunity to manipulate the latest version of an Obama administration (also to be known as the Biden administration), the Iranians know that Biden has stated he will sign on again to the agreement. Biden’s goal is not only foolish but meaningless, since the Iranians have significantly progressed in their nuclear bomb development. What in the world will our re-engaging provide? Here are some of Biden’s ideas about re-joining the JCPOA:
In an op-ed in September, Biden said as president he would ‘make an unshakable commitment to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.’ He argued the best way to achieve that was for the U.S. to re-enter the deal.
‘I will offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy. If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations,’ Biden wrote.
Even if Biden and Rouhani are looking to strike an agreement, arriving at a formula that would allow the U.S. to re-enter the deal, and for Iran to unwind its nuclear activities, will not be easy.
Rather than removing sanctions all at once or Iran returning immediately to full compliance, a more likely scenario could see an incremental approach over a period of three or four months, said former U.S. officials and European diplomats. A first step could have Iran freeze its nuclear work, in return for some level of sanctions relief. Further steps could see Iran eventually return to compliance and all the nuclear-related sanctions lifted.
Anyone who believes that Iran will keep its end of any bargain is delusional.
If Biden decides to re-up with the JCPOA, there will be several losers. The Arab countries continue to develop relationships with each other at several economic and diplomatic levels, and with Israel as well, which signals efforts to bring peace to the Middle East; recognizing Iran will likely disrupt these historic efforts; Joe Biden will be empowering the Iranians, who are enemies with most of the countries in the region. The Iranians will also likely see sanctions removed that have been devastating to their economy, which will enable them to thrive and threaten the rest of the Middle East. The Palestinians will see the recognition of Iran as a win for their goals (which are almost impossible to determine). Biden taking these actions will not only de-stabilize that part of the world, but he will be fueling the threat of a serious war.
The tragedy and foolishness of these potential actions by Biden were on full display in an editorial in the Wall Street Journal written by Alireza Miryousefi, Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran, after their chief scientist heading nuclear weapon development was killed. The chutzpah of Miryousefi, whose country represents one of the primary supporters of terrorism in the world, was on display. In part, here is what he said in response to an earlier editorial:
Your editorial “Biden, Iran and the Bomb” (Nov. 28) is shameful in its inhumanity. The unjustifiable support for a brutal assassination of a prominent scientist does nothing more than encourage a few criminals, such as the Israeli regime and its allies, to commit more assassinations. The assassination of an official of a U.N. member state in its territory is a dangerous game, opening a Pandora’s box; one whose consequences only reckless, apocalyptic people would ignore. Undoubtedly, the Israeli regime’s involvement in this criminal act is designed to further disrupt the turbulent situation in the region and destroy the path for diplomacy. . .
Considering the duplicity of the Iranians regarding the JCPOA; considering the hundreds of thousands of deaths that have been funded by the Iranian regime; and considering the constant threat to the existence of Israel; I found his argument unpersuasive.
How about you?
Published in Foreign Policy
Normal nations do have their own agendas and goals – which they pursue with the means at their disposal.
Let’s just take various interventions in Syria for example. These, direct and/or by funded proxy, have been undertaken (in no particular order) by:
Turkey
The US
Saudi
Qatar
The UAE
Lebanon
Iran
Russia
Israel
And probably a bunch more.
All of these interventions were driven by self interest, a lot of them were arguably harmful to Syria, but none of this makes these nations or countries abnormal – on the contrary they were acting completely normally, if also grubbily.
The great disappointment that many in the US seemed to feel about the JCPOA is that it failed to make Iran an abnormal country by cutting off its ability to pursue its own interests with the means at its disposal. (An unrealistic objective, as things stood and stand.)
I find this very unpersuasive, given the Iranian government’s actions over the past few decades. The only reason you will go to war with Iran, imho, is if you think you can impose regime change in Iran (again) without an unacceptable loss of US lives or disruption to its economy. And perhaps that moment has passed, with or without an Iranian nuclear bomb?
Iran could continue to fulfil its assigned role, however, as the carefully chosen (ie not very strong) “threat” that justifies military spending and the trialling and refinement of methods of control, like sanctions (pour encourager les autres).
Or you could choose a different path. Realistically, it’s up to you.