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Will Biden Trigger War in the Middle East?
When President Trump pulled us out of the Iranian deal, also known as the JCPOA, it was one of the most sensible and appropriate actions of his Presidency. The deal, which was supposed to “slow” the Iranian development of a nuclear weapon, was a sham from the start: they refused to adhere to certain inspection guidelines from the beginning, then violated others as time passed; the IAEA figuratively and repeatedly threw up its hands in frustration. When we pulled out, the Iranians used our lack of support as a further excuse to continue to ignore the limitations of the agreement.
Now with the opportunity to manipulate the latest version of an Obama administration (also to be known as the Biden administration), the Iranians know that Biden has stated he will sign on again to the agreement. Biden’s goal is not only foolish but meaningless, since the Iranians have significantly progressed in their nuclear bomb development. What in the world will our re-engaging provide? Here are some of Biden’s ideas about re-joining the JCPOA:
In an op-ed in September, Biden said as president he would ‘make an unshakable commitment to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.’ He argued the best way to achieve that was for the U.S. to re-enter the deal.
‘I will offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy. If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations,’ Biden wrote.
Even if Biden and Rouhani are looking to strike an agreement, arriving at a formula that would allow the U.S. to re-enter the deal, and for Iran to unwind its nuclear activities, will not be easy.
Rather than removing sanctions all at once or Iran returning immediately to full compliance, a more likely scenario could see an incremental approach over a period of three or four months, said former U.S. officials and European diplomats. A first step could have Iran freeze its nuclear work, in return for some level of sanctions relief. Further steps could see Iran eventually return to compliance and all the nuclear-related sanctions lifted.
Anyone who believes that Iran will keep its end of any bargain is delusional.
If Biden decides to re-up with the JCPOA, there will be several losers. The Arab countries continue to develop relationships with each other at several economic and diplomatic levels, and with Israel as well, which signals efforts to bring peace to the Middle East; recognizing Iran will likely disrupt these historic efforts; Joe Biden will be empowering the Iranians, who are enemies with most of the countries in the region. The Iranians will also likely see sanctions removed that have been devastating to their economy, which will enable them to thrive and threaten the rest of the Middle East. The Palestinians will see the recognition of Iran as a win for their goals (which are almost impossible to determine). Biden taking these actions will not only de-stabilize that part of the world, but he will be fueling the threat of a serious war.
The tragedy and foolishness of these potential actions by Biden were on full display in an editorial in the Wall Street Journal written by Alireza Miryousefi, Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran, after their chief scientist heading nuclear weapon development was killed. The chutzpah of Miryousefi, whose country represents one of the primary supporters of terrorism in the world, was on display. In part, here is what he said in response to an earlier editorial:
Your editorial “Biden, Iran and the Bomb” (Nov. 28) is shameful in its inhumanity. The unjustifiable support for a brutal assassination of a prominent scientist does nothing more than encourage a few criminals, such as the Israeli regime and its allies, to commit more assassinations. The assassination of an official of a U.N. member state in its territory is a dangerous game, opening a Pandora’s box; one whose consequences only reckless, apocalyptic people would ignore. Undoubtedly, the Israeli regime’s involvement in this criminal act is designed to further disrupt the turbulent situation in the region and destroy the path for diplomacy. . .
Considering the duplicity of the Iranians regarding the JCPOA; considering the hundreds of thousands of deaths that have been funded by the Iranian regime; and considering the constant threat to the existence of Israel; I found his argument unpersuasive.
How about you?
Published in Foreign Policy
The Biden Administration is full of people who want to see Israel wiped off the face of the map, and Iran is their means to do it.
Biden more than makes up for it by being mean in person.
I think the idea was to pick up where Obama left off: Turkey supported as the Sunni regional hegemon, Iran as the Shia hegemon, play one off against the other, and to fund and otherwise assist the Left in Israel.
That would certainly be a boon to the Military-Industrial Complex.
Hardly. Time for the Democrats to gut defense.
The Biden people seem more likely to want a war with the Israelis and the Saudis than they do with the Iranians, though. But the #NeverTrump types hatred of Trump made that reality a non-factor in their actions. My guess is when Team Joe does start pivoting strongly back towards the Obama foreign policy, these same people will be shocked that Team Joe is pivoting strongly back towards the Obama foreign policy, and — since they never take blame for any of their actions — will immediately start pointing the blame at Trump for his awfulness in not being able to get re-elected as the reason for the move of U.S. foreign policy back towards appeasement of the Iranian regime.
Except it’s a Jobs Program.
They didn’t care under Obama. Barry’s drone addiction burned through a lot of ordinance that wasn’t replaced.
Remember, with Obama they were THEIR planes.
Speaking of Turkey…reminds me of something I read today:
France also pushing hardline against UK’s Brexit amid tensions between Macron and Germany.
Not really. I have a feeling that the most profitable wars are the ones that last a long time and which don’t actually threaten the complex’s centres of production or supply lines. Iraq and Afghanistan are good examples.
Iran would not really fit because while it’s a long way away and very unlikely to damage any centres of production it would almost certainly disrupt supply lines that run from the Gulf.
I guess that could be a problem since the Biden people also don’t want the US to be energy-independent.
There is a downside to agreements with non-representative dictators: any stability dependent on these agreements requires the ongoing suppression of these countries’ populations. It creates a tension that won’t go away.
The Times of Israel reports on a couple of polls. From which:
None of this is to say that the agreements won’t have any positive benefits – I hope that they do – just that the truth is colder. Too much policy performed on and in the Middle East is based on feelings and only passingly deals with facts. imho.
How can a prosperous Iran not also be a less aggressive Iran? Right now they feel desperate, and desperate people do desperate things.
As things stand now none of the Arab countries would benefit from going to war with Iran, and Iran wouldn’t benefit from going to war with them either. Unless they’re pushed into it by third parties it won’t happen.
A lot of the US’ prosperity is still built on trade with parts of the world which are energy-dependent on Gulf product.
Unfortunately Susan:
A. You are exactly right that a Biden Administration will mean a very deadly war in the Middle East that targets Israel. I don’t think a rational explanation can be given for what the Biden Administration really wants in the Middle East for the Democrats rarely think about the consequences of their actions, and the consequence of this policy of letting Iran get the bomb is almost unthinkable in the harm it does to the world, not just the Middle East.
B. That war will be the least of our worries with a Biden Administration. Our problems will start right here at home and will be gut wrenching.
Btw, What Trump achieved in the Middle East was simply miraculous, and if Biden is allowed to steal this election it will be thrown all away.
@zafar, I wouldn’t doubt the results of those polls; the hatred of Israel among those populations is long-standing. But the agreements among countries are being made by the leaders (without necessarily considering the opinion of the people) and it will be interesting to see if they proceed. They may hope over time that their citizens will come along.
These are unfree countries. People say what they think they are supposed to say.
But as Susan put it, in non-democratic countries, what “people” think does not matter. It is up to the leaders. And they know full well that Israel is not a risk to them, but Iran is.
It’s very easy to say “the Saudis” this or “the UAE that.” But when you have as many wealthy royals as the Saudis do, whatever the King or reasonable facsimile thereof and his foreign minister want, there are wealthy Saudis willing to put their money and sometimes, as in the case of Osama bin Laden, their lives, into another policy. So among those 24% of Bahrainis, and 33% of Saudis, there are going to be some who will put their money where their mouths are.
The phenomenon that @drbastiat is describing in his post Vicious Virtue Signalling is international, and not just limited to Marxist theologies:
Or true-believer Muslim young people who have inherited enormous amounts of money and are willing to spend it on organizations involved in various pre-kinetic and kinetic jihad strategies. Again, bin Laden as recent example.
Yep. I know it doesn’t make sense, but that has been a consistent theme in Joe Biden’s foreign policy, for 30 years.
It’s a Democrat administration. It doesn’t have to make sense.
Iran is a interesting case as country much like the old USSR it sees itself as a country with a mission to spread Shia Islam and dominate first the middle east and them the world. You may reflect that after the last JCPOA payments virtually all of that money was used to fund foreign adventurism in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. This actually contributed to a round of protests in Iran. In fact most of Iran’s internal economic problems are caused by its bellicosity in the region. They have had years to modulate that if they wished. They don’t. They have an explicitly anti-western, anti-Israel, and anti-Sunni based agenda which they have proven willing to follow to their detriment. They have risked significant international blowback, internal dissent, and economic collapse to follow this agenda. They aren’t going to abandon it now. The JCPOA is doomed because it presumes that Iran wants to be a normal nation on the UN rolls from A-Z; however, there is really no evidence of that being the case. Biden’s signature weakness in foreign policy, in fact it is the entire US foreign policy establishment’s weakness as well, is that he doesn’t assume that countries have their own agendas and goals which they are pursuing for their own reasons. The reason we will have war with Iran is they feel they will win, or that at least their sacrifice in a nuclear exchange would kill more non-believers than their losses would be. I doubt very much the average Iranian believes that; however, their leaders have stated this on the record for years and their actions support it. That is why there will be a war. It is just a matter of when and on whose terms.
A thoughtful comment, @raxxalan, and I agree in part. Iran, in fact, doesn’t want to be like anyone else; they want to maintain their belief in their own special status as Shia. I don’t know if Biden really agrees that Iran wants the same thing as we do, because he speaks of all these expectations of them to re-enter the agreement. Does he really believe they will agree to those? He might, but that belief would reflect the enormity of his naivete.
I don’t know if we are the ones who will have a war with Iran. I don’t think they want to start one with us, nor us with them. I think the potential of war may be between the other Arab countries (and possibly Israel) and Iran; they are going to be very unhappy when it’s clear Iran has the nuclear bomb. It’s possible they will feel compelled to act against Iran. Then again, everyone may just make a lot of noise about it.
He and to be fair the entire establishment foreign policy apparatus of the US believes that Iran wants to be a prosperous normal nation and that their rhetoric is just for internal consumption and a foreign policy bluff not a stated goal. Elite opinion can’t conceive that a country would be motivated by religious beliefs into war. This thinking has hampered US mid-east policy for 4-decades .
Keep in mind we are still the “Great Satan”, Israel is only the “Little Satan”. I think assuming they will be content to attack the “Little Satan” with the fire of Allah is more wishful thinking than provable fact. It has to do with the somewhat arrogant thinking that they are not willing to matyr the whole of Iran. I think it was Bernard Lewis who said that the matyr factor of an Iranian nuclear exchange with the west wasn’t a hinderance but an inducement. The Iranian leadership has said that destroying infidels while loosing Iran would be worth it. I trust Lewis and the IRGC statements over our foreign policy establishment.
Bernard Lewis was brilliant and insightful; I miss him. Every time a country (especially Westerners) assume that others share our values, we get into big trouble. Islamists of any color have a death complex and they readily admit it. Too bad that our bureaucrats think they know the beliefs of Iran better than they do. Sheesh! Thanks!
I expect they would “agree” to the expectations and then immediately ignore them, perhaps saying as they and other such places in the past have claimed, “those words mean something different in Arabic” (or Farsi or whatever), or they just won’t bother justifying it at all. And they know they don’t need to, because Biden et al would still go along with the charade.
Iran may be a long way from the US geographically, but Iran’s Quds Force is very active in Latin America.
What the people think always matters – even in non-democratic countries. Assuming that it doesn’t wrt the accords is going with feelings over facts.
I suppose it depends on whose running things. I can’t imagine that it will Biden, and if so, certainly not for long. He was put there to head off Sanders by a coalition of some sort. Who will dominate that coalition?
He’ll send ’em a check, and city bus bombings will return to Tel Aviv.
Weird how the peace process got so many people killed until Trump changed things.