An Honest Question About Flu Numbers

 

One of the few pieces of good news this year is that the flu season has been exceptionally mild so far. While it’s great that we don’t have to face two deadly epidemics simultaneously, I have a question:

Why is there less flu in 2020 than other years?

Here are the possibilities that I have come up with:

  1. Everyone who was going to get the flu has already succumbed to the Wuhan virus.
  2. The preventative measures being used to fight the Wuhan virus protect against the flu.
  3. More people are getting flu vaccinations and/or the vaccines are more effective than other years.
  4. Flu cases are being undercounted.
  5. Exposure to the Wuhan virus in some way provides protection from the flu.
  6. The flu strain is extraordinarily mild this year,

The impetus for this post was a discussion I had with @kozak in the comments of @arizonapatriot‘s excellent post, Covid Deaths Are Real: Rebutting Dr. Briand. I stated that I thought that the reason that there are fewer flu deaths was because most of the people who were going to die of flu were already dead from the Wuhan virus. Kozak replied:

We have tens of millions of elderly and people with multiple risk factors for covid death who are 50+ years old. Plenty of people left to potentially get infected and die either of Covid or the flu. . .

Only a tiny fraction of those susceptible have died. Again. tens of millions of elderly, hypertensive, diabetic, cardiac, immunocompromised, fat, etc etc etc people in the US.

It is true that only a tiny fraction of those susceptible die of the Wuhan virus, but the same can be said for people who die of flu. While there are millions at risk, only the most susceptible die of either disease. I would bet the Venn diagrams of both populations are pretty congruent.

Still, while that may be a partial answer to why fewer people are dying, it doesn’t answer why fewer people are contracting the flu.

Kozak and others have posited that people are not getting the flu because of the protective measures: hand-washing, masks, distancing, lockdowns, etc-being used to stop the spread of the Wuhan virus. That begs the question: If these measures are stopping the spread of the flu, why aren’t they working to stop the spread of the Wuhan Virus? Right now, cases of the Wuhan virus are supposedly “surging” throughout the country, despite the fact that the protective measures have been in place for months. Why isn’t flu surging as well?  Stating that the Wuhan virus spread is from people being careless about wearing masks is not an answer, because the flu should also be affected by how well the rules are being followed.

I’m posting this because I’m honestly puzzled about it. It could be the possibilities listed above are all, to one degree or another, reasons we are seeing less flu. What do you think?

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  1. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    Goldwaterwoman (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):
    I would be surprised, because (as I understand it) influenza is not caused by a coronavirus, but rather by influenza viruses. On the other hand, the common cold is often caused by a coronavirus, and it wouldn’t surprise me if there were some false positives triggered by past exposure to a cold.

    The reason I started to question the testing results is that last week some friends of my son were supposed to come to his house for Thanksgiving and could not because one in their family was sick and tested positive for Corona. The entire family (5 of them) went for testing, quarantined and also got sick a couple days later. Of the five family members only one tested positive for Covid yet they all pretty much had the same symptoms. Is that not odd?

    Odd? Yes. Exceptional? I don’t know. ;)

    I would appreciate more transparency in the public conversation about: (a) the kinds (technologies) of COVID tests being performed; (b) the CT values used in the PCR tests; and (c) the false positive and false negative rates for each kind of test.

    The media practice of quoting the scariest number, whatever that happens to be, is tiresome.

    We need more transparency about hospital, ICU and death data

    The emphasis on testing is misguided.

    The original goal of 15 days to flatten the curve was to ration hospital beds and ICU beds

    Fortunately we know how to treat covid better.

    In April, according to Worldometers, about 3% of cases were considered serious/critical

    Yesterday I the serious/critical number is 0.6%.

    This is for all countries 

    • #31
  2. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    Kozak (View Comment):

    Goldwaterwoman (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):
    I would be surprised, because (as I understand it) influenza is not caused by a coronavirus, but rather by influenza viruses. On the other hand, the common cold is often caused by a coronavirus, and it wouldn’t surprise me if there were some false positives triggered by past exposure to a cold.

    The reason I started to question the testing results is that last week some friends of my son were supposed to come to his house for Thanksgiving and could not because one in their family was sick and tested positive for Corona. The entire family (5 of them) went for testing, quarantined and also got sick a couple days later. Of the five family members only one tested positive for Covid yet they all pretty much had the same symptoms. Is that not odd?

    A lot of it has to do with the timing of the testing in the individual. Also with the technique of the person getting the sample.

     

     

    That’s interesting. Thank you.

    I’ve read that there are different immunological responses — primarily T-cell and antibody — and that an infection suppressed by a T-cell response might not result in the presence of antibodies. Is that plausible, or did I perhaps misunderstand what I was reading?

    If that’s true, are infections suppressed by a T-cell response typically or necessarily experienced differently, in terms of symptoms, than those suppressed by an antibody response?

    Yes to your first question – I read something similar

    Second question – I have no idea but most people will suppress infections with T cell response

    and not just viruses… T cells are important for killing tumors and cancerous cells

     

    • #32
  3. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    Manny (View Comment):

    I think the preventive measures against Covid have reduced the spread of the common flu. As to reducing or not reducing Covid, how do you know it hasn’t? How do you know how widespread it would be without these measures? I think it has.

    Counterfactuals are always difficult.

    But you invite the question: when you write “reduce the spread,” does that mean “reduce the ultimate number who will be infected,” or does it mean “flattening the infection curve?”

    Since I don’t think it’s likely that we will end the widespread presence of the virus in the population any time soon, I think we should end lockdowns and allow as many of us as possible to resume living as normally as possible.

    If you had covid and recovered, do you need to quarantine?  Your risk of infection is low and you are not contagious

    Rand Paul is correct and he is a MD, ophthamologist

     

    • #33
  4. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    14 days seems high

    I thought it was 5 days, maybe 10

     

    With COVID, 50% of cases show symptoms by 5 days, 95% show by 11 days. 14 days gets to 3 st devs.

    • #34
  5. Eugene Kriegsmann Member
    Eugene Kriegsmann
    @EugeneKriegsmann

    My suspicion is #2 on your list. People are simply reducing the number of contacts they are having, and that is reducing the number of Flu cases. I taught school for 45 years. I don’t think I ever caught the flu. I did catch a wide range of other viruses, particularly in my last 10 years before retirement. Since being retired I have practiced social distancing as a style of life. I am not particularly inclined to wash my hands frequently, but I am also rarely in direct contact with other people. As a consequence, I have been remarkable healthy through the last eight years. I had one nasty cold about 6 years ago after attending a Halloween party at a friend’s house. Another guest was just recovering from a virus, and infected the rest of us with his bug. That was the last time I was sick. I really believe that the way to avoid getting sick is to avoid people. They are the greatest vectors of disease, even worse than mosquitoes.

    • #35
  6. The Scarecrow Thatcher
    The Scarecrow
    @TheScarecrow

    So we have fewer flu cases because of masks and lockdowns? Great. Was it worth it?

    One third of small businesses out of business. Suicides up, and more to come as the pressure from having so many businesses fail, the despair from that is immeasurable.

    And how many elderly have been “protected” from Covid but denied their last days of familial contact, the loneliness and confusion. 

    And now Flu cases are down. So even Kleenex and NyQuil are taking a hit.

    • #36
  7. Hammer, The Inactive
    Hammer, The
    @RyanM

    4 and 5 are almost certainly the correct answers.

    2 is nonsense.  These “protective measures” are abject nonsense, as everyone knew before this became political in 2020.

    • #37
  8. JosePluma Coolidge
    JosePluma
    @JosePluma

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Henry Racette (View Comment):

    Goldwaterwoman (View Comment):

    Could it be that the regular flu is the reason for so many false positives? Is it possible that a lot of these people test positive for Covid but actually have regular flu, stay home, get over it, and go on their merry way. Not everyone with Covid or any other flu winds up in the hospital.

    I would be surprised, because (as I understand it) influenza is not caused by a coronavirus, but rather by influenza viruses. On the other hand, the common cold is often caused by a coronavirus, and it wouldn’t surprise me if there were some false positives triggered by past exposure to a cold.

    It also seems plausible that past coronavirus (cold) exposure may have conferred T-cell immunity to many of us. Perhaps we are fortunate that we never cured the common cold. ;)

    YES!

    Why are kids ‘immune’ to covid? T cell immunity?

    Or, more likely, children have fewer  co-morbities and a more robust immune system.

    • #38
  9. Buckpasser Member
    Buckpasser
    @Buckpasser

    The Scarecrow (View Comment):

    So we have fewer flu cases because of masks and lockdowns? Great. Was it worth it?

    One third of small businesses out of business. Suicides up, and more to come as the pressure from having so many businesses fail, the despair from that is immeasurable.

    And how many elderly have been “protected” from Covid but denied their last days of familial contact, the loneliness and confusion.

    And now Flu cases are down. So even Kleenex and NyQuil are taking a hit.

    Of course, if we only hid in our basement, wore burkhas, and had our trusty 10 foot poles with us, we could lead safe and fulfilling lives. <sarc>   I don’t think that my maker wanted it this way.

    • #39
  10. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Manny (View Comment):

    I think the preventive measures against Covid have reduced the spread of the common flu. As to reducing or not reducing Covid, how do you know it hasn’t? How do you know how widespread it would be without these measures? I think it has.

    I’m sure the measures helped mitigate the spread of most airborne viruses.  However, COVID is never going to go away, and I know their are state and local governments who would use that to impose “emergency” measures on their citizens without regard to the negative consequences or their effectiveness . . .

    • #40
  11. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Buckpasser (View Comment):

    Where were the masks last year?? Why don’t we wear masks everywhere and at all times for the rest of our lives? Then we can eradicate all viruses.

    If masks ‘saves lives’ shouldn’t this ‘pandemic’ ended sooner?

     

    It’s hard to disprove the statement “The death toll would be much higher if it weren’t for masks, lockdowns, and a ban on buying seeds (Michigan).”

    • #41
  12. Goldwaterwoman Thatcher
    Goldwaterwoman
    @goldwaterwoman

    Kozak (View Comment):
    A lot of it has to do with the timing of the testing in the individual. Also with the technique of the person getting the sample.

    This totally confuses me. So, what in the world are we to believe? There are no simple answers for testing? And, the technique of the person getting the sample means what?

    • #42
  13. RyanFalcone Member
    RyanFalcone
    @RyanFalcone

    In a month we’ll have a much more accurate picture of all of this. It already looks pretty obvious that most of this was total BS. The excess deaths as a result of Covid are almost all in the “died because of fearmongering”. The number could be as high as 90% of excess deaths. Like car accidents due to less driving, Flu deaths may have been victories but nearly every type of death from the fearmongering dwarfs those lives saved. Deaths from suicide, drugs and not seeking health care out of fear are staggering. Another massive story that isn’t getting any play is that it is very likely that deaths due to medical malpractice are enormous. 

    • #43
  14. Brian Clendinen Inactive
    Brian Clendinen
    @BrianClendinen

    RyanFalcone (View Comment):

    In a month we’ll have a much more accurate picture of all of this. It already looks pretty obvious that most of this was total BS. The excess deaths as a result of Covid are almost all in the “died because of fearmongering”. The number could be as high as 90% of excess deaths. Like car accidents due to less driving, Flu deaths may have been victories but nearly every type of death from the fearmongering dwarfs those lives saved. Deaths from suicide, drugs and not seeking health care out of fear are staggering. Another massive story that isn’t getting any play is that it is very likely that deaths due to medical malpractice are enormous.

    I looked at NYC COVID deaths and excess deaths. For that statement to be true then like 80% of C OVID deaths are misreported. It is not that high. From what I can tell its more like 25% in places like NYC. Now you can’t really compare worldwide numbers because countries have so many different ways of reporting deaths. Some countries like UK at one time 60 to 70% might of been possible.  On the other hand China and Africa are drastically unreported.

    It could be in the 30 to 40% range of excess deaths is from the lock downs and fear maybe 50% at the most in a place like NYC. Its not 90%. COVID is killing more people than normal. The data is not that misreported compared to how we could typical seasonal flu deaths.  Long term deaths rates is were you will see some real effects of lock-down.

    Medical malpractice deaths is more than COVID. You are right about that.

    • #44
  15. Z in MT Member
    Z in MT
    @ZinMT

    Buckpasser (View Comment):

    Where were the masks last year?? Why don’t we wear masks everywhere and at all times for the rest of our lives? Then we can eradicate all viruses.

    Don’t give them any ideas.

    • #45
  16. Z in MT Member
    Z in MT
    @ZinMT

    I have a suspicion that a good fraction of the annual regular seasonal flu cases that are reported every year are often due to coronaviruses not influenza because the testing for influenza has never been as wide spread as the testing for SARS-COV-2 has been this year. I think this helps explain the wide dispersion in COVID-19 symptoms as there are a lot of people who have some native immunity due to prior infection from other coronaviruses.

    • #46
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