Peak Fall Covid?

 

I’ve been keeping track of some Covid-19 metrics. I’m particularly interested in the percent of new tests that are positive (%+) and the change in the number of hospitalizations. Those metrics indicate that the fall surge of Covid that’s been brewing up since late September might be topping out. The following graphs are based on data from the Covid tracking project. The calculations and graphs (and any errors) are my own.

The red line in the graph below is a seven-day moving average of %+ over the past 60 days. It appears to be forming a top and rolling over. The last three daily data points ( not the moving average) have actually been going down very slightly.

This is being mirrored by the seven-day moving average of the change in hospitalizations. Again, it appears that the recent surge might be topping out.


Let’s hope this continues. Fingers crossed.

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  1. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    100,000 covid deaths at long term care facilities according to WSJ today.

    That’s 40% of the total.

     

    Yep. And you have to pencil in another 6 or 7 thousand from NY. They changed the way they count LTC fatalities after Herr Cuomo started catching flak. Since May they only count fatalities as LTC fatalities if the person actually dies AT the LTC facility.

    If we could get a handle on those facilities the whole thing would look A LOT different.

    Did Cuomo purposely kill nursing home residents to increase the death count?

     

    • #61
  2. Old Bathos Member
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    @OldBathos

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    100,000 covid deaths at long term care facilities according to WSJ today.

    That’s 40% of the total.

     

    Yep. And you have to pencil in another 6 or 7 thousand from NY. They changed the way they count LTC fatalities after Herr Cuomo started catching flak. Since May they only count fatalities as LTC fatalities if the person actually dies AT the LTC facility.

    If we could get a handle on those facilities the whole thing would look A LOT different.

    The age stats are available on most state sites. The average age of COVID fatalities is 74-84 depending on whose calculations you get. The 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8. As deadly as this bug is, 94% of LTC residents here in MD do not die from COVID and 99.969% of the rest of us are not dead from COVID either.

    • #62
  3. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    Old Bathos (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    100,000 covid deaths at long term care facilities according to WSJ today.

    That’s 40% of the total.

     

    Yep. And you have to pencil in another 6 or 7 thousand from NY. They changed the way they count LTC fatalities after Herr Cuomo started catching flak. Since May they only count fatalities as LTC fatalities if the person actually dies AT the LTC facility.

    If we could get a handle on those facilities the whole thing would look A LOT different.

    The age stats are available on most state sites. The average age of COVID fatalities is 74-84 depending on whose calculations you get. The 2019 US life expectancy was 78.8. As deadly as this bug is, 94% of LTC residents here in MD do not die from COVID and 99.969% of the rest of us are not dead from COVID either.

    This ‘pandemic’ has not decreased US life expectancy. 

    Can we call this a ‘pandemic’?  Contrast to the Spanish Flu 1918-20 when many fatalities were under age 45

     

    • #63
  4. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    100,000 covid deaths at long term care facilities according to WSJ today.

    That’s 40% of the total.

     

    Yep. And you have to pencil in another 6 or 7 thousand from NY. They changed the way they count LTC fatalities after Herr Cuomo started catching flak. Since May they only count fatalities as LTC fatalities if the person actually dies AT the LTC facility.

    If we could get a handle on those facilities the whole thing would look A LOT different.

    Did Cuomo purposely kill nursing home residents to increase the death count?

     

    Nah.  Just panicked.    He had visions of overwhelmed hospitals and made room any way he could.    

    • #64
  5. CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker Coolidge
    CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker
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    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Have you noticed age is omitted from all covid stats in media?

    Surge in cases, what is the median age?

    Surge in hospitalizations, what is the median age?

     

    Hospitalization numbers are irrelevant unless they separate out the regular people who are in the hospital but happened to be tested and tested positive, but that testing has nothing to do with why the person is in the hospital.

    Examples; woman in hospital to deliver her baby, heart attack victim, car accident victim.

    If the above positive cases are considered “COVID hospitalizations,” that is fudging the numbers.

    The important thing is that the percentage of people under 70 who die of COVID is extremely small. (Which is something the media is not willing to emphasize.)

    • #65
  6. CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker Coolidge
    CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker
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    MiMac (View Comment):

    CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    Kozak (View Comment):

    The numbers of ICU cases is still rising. I’ve been following that number carefully. We won’t see the peak until that number is trending down. It’s a predictor of future deaths.

    Where are you following that number? Seems to me there was a site where I was following it months ago, but I seem to have lost track of that one.

    In many cases, the ICU case number is irrelevant, unless it is carefully separated out as to whether the COVID is incidental or actually responsible for a decline in the patient’s overall health status.

    As I have posed in several other discussions on Ricochet, they now test everyone coming into any hospital for any reason with the COVID test. The test is defective and there are plenty of false positives. (The man, Kary Mullins, who developed the PCR test stated it is worthless for the type of situation it is now being used for.)

    So then the critical heart attack patient is in the ICU, with COVID, but might not have any COVID symptoms. The data that our Big Pharma-run reporting agencies are collecting are not fact checked about a truthful portrayal of what is going on.

    Also from reports I am getting, patients are still being pressured into agreeing to be intubated, which is pretty much game over. (Only 5 to 15% of all patients who ar eintubated survive.)

    Now it is also my understanding that rocephin is being prescribed, once you test positive for COVID. This was a drug put on the back burner back in 2012 as it was detrimental to patients suffering with respiratory issues, which is exactly the type of flu that COVID is.

    Rocephin might well be responsible for all the many “cataclysmic side effects” that patients who survive their hospitalization report weeks later. Side effects of rocephin and of the “COVID symptoms that are major and unrelenting, but don’t show up for day s and weeks after the hospital stay” are identical.

    Being intubated does NOT worsen outcome from COVID- it is only a marker of a severe infection. That is like saying the craniotomy killed the patient who died of a brain cancer months later- rather than people with brain cancers get craniotomies. I have not seen any reputable data showing Rocephin causes “cataclysmic” side effects-again you are confusing therapies taken in gravely ill situations with the resulting bad outcomes- as a wise MD once said “sick people die”.

    Then you are getting data from  totally different sources than I am.

    • #66
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