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I’ve been keeping track of some Covid-19 metrics. I’m particularly interested in the percent of new tests that are positive (%+) and the change in the number of hospitalizations. Those metrics indicate that the fall surge of Covid that’s been brewing up since late September might be topping out. The following graphs are based on data from the Covid tracking project. The calculations and graphs (and any errors) are my own.
The red line in the graph below is a seven-day moving average of %+ over the past 60 days. It appears to be forming a top and rolling over. The last three daily data points ( not the moving average) have actually been going down very slightly.
This is being mirrored by the seven-day moving average of the change in hospitalizations. Again, it appears that the recent surge might be topping out.
Let’s hope this continues. Fingers crossed.