Welcome to 2030

 

This article was penned by a member of the Danish Parliament to promote discussion about just where we are headed.

To some, it’s a utopian goal … the desired endpoint of our current big tech, big government, Marxist cooperative. To others, it’s a totalitarian hell to be avoided at all costs. But it was published by the World Economic Forum, proponents of the “Great Reset.”

Is this where they really think we could end up? It seems amazingly economically naive for something put out by an economics organization. Free clean energy? Free telecommunications? Free … everything? Without some analog to the Philosopher’s Stone, scarcity will be with us always. And with it, nothing is free. Some method must exist to ration scarce goods. Prices, determined by the free choices of free people, seem to be the best way we know to do this. But it’s not the only way. All the others depend on varying degrees of authoritarian fiat. Surely the WEF knows this. So why pretend that there is a “free stuff” possible future? They certainly seem to know there is a downside to the “free stuff” future…

Once in a while, I get annoyed about the fact that I have no real privacy. Nowhere I can go and not be registered. I know that, somewhere, everything I do, think and dream of is recorded. I just hope that nobody will use it against me.

The downside is very real. But the “free stuff” future is a physical impossibility. Yet they dangle it out there as if it were a real choice. It would seem to be an attempt to get the gullible to trade their liberty for a chimera that can’t be delivered. Fortunately for them, the ranks of the gullible are large and growing. Unfortunate for us.

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  1. OmegaPaladin Moderator
    OmegaPaladin
    @OmegaPaladin

    So, if I was going to imagine a low scarcity society, what would you need?  (complete post-scarcity is insane.  It means anyone who wants can build a working Saturn V rocket, a Great Pyramid out of Platinum, or something else crazy.   Outside of virtual worlds, it’s not possible for centuries if at all.  See Iain Banks and his Culture book series for a real post-scarcity civilization)

    1. Ridiculous supplies of energy – massive use of fission plants or even fusion if it ever works out.
    2. Advanced manufacturing that is fully automated and reliable.
    3. Deep stockpiles of raw materials and heavy resource recovery – possibly off-world.
    4. A highly developed transportation system

    The environmentalists would never go for this.

    • #31
  2. SkipSul Inactive
    SkipSul
    @skipsul

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):
    Deep stockpiles of raw materials and heavy resource recovery – possibly off-world.

    Wood is renewable, but it does take time.

    There’s enough food grown in the world to feed everyone, but its allocation and transportation are still erratic, so your 4th point needs to be bolded, italicized, and double-underlined.  Putting it in red flashing characters would help too (see also: toilet paper during a respiratory pandemic for an example of logistical nightmares).

    And the amount of food we use for livestock is just massive, and I would expect meat prices would have to climb quite a bit to shift that allocation.  And with the growth times for livestock, like wood I don’t ever expect meat to be “post scarcity”.

    For everything else, we would need a vigorous recycling system and a way to force unwanted plastics to decompose, since the microplastic pollution problem would likely be worse the cheaper “post scarcity” plastics would get.

    • #32
  3. Jon1979 Inactive
    Jon1979
    @Jon1979

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):

    So, if I was going to imagine a low scarcity society, what would you need? (complete post-scarcity is insane. It means anyone who wants can build a working Saturn V rocket, a Great Pyramid out of Platinum, or something else crazy. Outside of virtual worlds, it’s not possible for centuries if at all. See Iain Banks and his Culture book series for a real post-scarcity civilization)

    1. Ridiculous supplies of energy – massive use of fission plants or even fusion if it ever works out.
    2. Advanced manufacturing that is fully automated and reliable.
    3. Deep stockpiles of raw materials and heavy resource recovery – possibly off-world.
    4. A highly developed transportation system

    The environmentalists would never go for this.

    That’s why I mentioned the Star Trek replicators creating everything out of just atoms as the utopians’ ideal something-for (from)-nothing situation. Even with the enviros’ current fanaticism with renewables and electric cars, it would be the same as when natural gas fell out of favor. It was the green movement’s only preferred fossil fuel until fracking and horizontal drilling made it cheap and easily available 15 years ago. Then it was demonized.

    If battery technology makes electric vehicles viable against internal combustion engines for more than just short-range driving, mining and disposal of the heavy metals needed to make the EV batteries will be demonized. Nuclear already has been demonized for decades, and if solar and wind became 24/7/365 viable they suddenly raise the enviros’ objections over bird kills, land animals being fried, plus the heavy metal problems with the storage batteries, and even last year you started seeing the activists start to push attacks on people daring to fly in airplanes.

    If high speed trains were suddenly viable as at least short flight alternatives, you’d then see protests all over the place about the negative environmental consequences of dedicated high-speed rail lines, since in the end, those people hate anything they think makes western-style capitalism function.

    • #33
  4. SkipSul Inactive
    SkipSul
    @skipsul

    Jon1979 (View Comment):

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):

    So, if I was going to imagine a low scarcity society, what would you need? (complete post-scarcity is insane. It means anyone who wants can build a working Saturn V rocket, a Great Pyramid out of Platinum, or something else crazy. Outside of virtual worlds, it’s not possible for centuries if at all. See Iain Banks and his Culture book series for a real post-scarcity civilization)

    1. Ridiculous supplies of energy – massive use of fission plants or even fusion if it ever works out.
    2. Advanced manufacturing that is fully automated and reliable.
    3. Deep stockpiles of raw materials and heavy resource recovery – possibly off-world.
    4. A highly developed transportation system

    The environmentalists would never go for this.

    That’s why I mentioned the Star Trek replicators creating everything out of just atoms as the utopians’ ideal something-for (from)-nothing situation. Even with the enviros’ current fanaticism with renewables and electric cars, it would be the same as when natural gas fell out of favor. It was the green movement’s only preferred fossil fuel until fracking and horizontal drilling made it cheap and easily available 15 years ago. Then it was demonized.

    If battery technology makes electric vehicles viable against internal combustion engines for more than just short-range driving, mining and disposal of the heavy metals needed to make the EV batteries will be demonized. Nuclear already has been demonized for decades, and if solar and wind became 24/7/365 viable they suddenly raise the enviros’ objections over bird kills, land animals being fried, plus the heavy metal problems with the storage batteries, and even last year you started seeing the activists start to push attacks on people daring to fly in airplanes.

    If high speed trains were suddenly viable as at least short flight alternatives, you’d then see protests all over the place about the negative environmental consequences of dedicated high-speed rail lines, since in the end, those people hate anything they think makes western-style capitalism function.

    In other words: NIMBYism.

    • #34
  5. Michael Brehm Lincoln
    Michael Brehm
    @MichaelBrehm

    “But I like the inconveniences.”

    “We don’t,” said the Controller. “We prefer to do things comfortably.”

    “But I don’t want comfort. I want God, I want poetry, I want real danger, I want freedom, I want goodness. I want sin.”

    “In Fact,” said Mustapha Mond, “you’re claiming the right to be unhappy.”

    “All right, then,” said the Savage defiantly, “I’m claiming the right to be unhappy.”

    “Not to mention the right to grow old and ugly and impotent; the right to have syphilis and cancer; the right to have too little to eat; the right to be lousy; the right to live in constant apprehension of what may happen to-morrow; the right to catch typhoid; the right to be tortured by unspeakable pains of every kind.”

    –Aldous Huxley, Brave New World

     

    • #35
  6. Jon1979 Inactive
    Jon1979
    @Jon1979

    SkipSul (View Comment):

    Jon1979 (View Comment):

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):

    So, if I was going to imagine a low scarcity society, what would you need? (complete post-scarcity is insane. It means anyone who wants can build a working Saturn V rocket, a Great Pyramid out of Platinum, or something else crazy. Outside of virtual worlds, it’s not possible for centuries if at all. See Iain Banks and his Culture book series for a real post-scarcity civilization)

    1. Ridiculous supplies of energy – massive use of fission plants or even fusion if it ever works out.
    2. Advanced manufacturing that is fully automated and reliable.
    3. Deep stockpiles of raw materials and heavy resource recovery – possibly off-world.
    4. A highly developed transportation system

    The environmentalists would never go for this.

    That’s why I mentioned the Star Trek replicators creating everything out of just atoms as the utopians’ ideal something-for (from)-nothing situation. Even with the enviros’ current fanaticism with renewables and electric cars, it would be the same as when natural gas fell out of favor. It was the green movement’s only preferred fossil fuel until fracking and horizontal drilling made it cheap and easily available 15 years ago.

    If battery technology makes electric vehicles viable against internal combustion engines for more than just short-range driving, mining and disposal of the heavy metals needed to make the EV batteries will be demonized. Nuclear already has been demonized for decades, and if solar and wind became 24/7/365 viable they suddenly raise the enviros’ objections over bird kills, land animals being fried, plus the heavy metal problems with the storage batteries, and even last year you started seeing the activists start to push attacks on people daring to fly in airplanes.

    If high speed trains were suddenly viable as at least short flight alternatives, you’d then see protests all over the place about the negative environmental consequences of dedicated high-speed rail lines, since in the end, those people hate anything they think makes western-style capitalism function.

    In other words: NIMBYism.

    …but not in anyone’s back yard

    • #36
  7. Dr. Bastiat Member
    Dr. Bastiat
    @drbastiat

    Jon1979 (View Comment):

    Even with the enviros’ current fanaticism with renewables and electric cars, it would be the same as when natural gas fell out of favor. It was the green movement’s only preferred fossil fuel until fracking and horizontal drilling made it cheap and easily available 15 years ago. Then it was demonized.

    If battery technology makes electric vehicles viable against internal combustion engines for more than just short-range driving, mining and disposal of the heavy metals needed to make the EV batteries will be demonized. Nuclear already has been demonized for decades, and if solar and wind became 24/7/365 viable they suddenly raise the enviros’ objections over bird kills, land animals being fried, plus the heavy metal problems with the storage batteries, and even last year you started seeing the activists start to push attacks on people daring to fly in airplanes.

    If high speed trains were suddenly viable as at least short flight alternatives, you’d then see protests all over the place about the negative environmental consequences of dedicated high-speed rail lines, since in the end, those people hate anything they think makes western-style capitalism function.

    Exactly correct.  They’re not pro-environment.  They’re anti-people.  It’s the strangest thing…

    • #37
  8. Full Size Tabby Member
    Full Size Tabby
    @FullSizeTabby

    SkipSul (View Comment):

    There’s enough food grown in the world to feed everyone, but its allocation and transportation are still erratic, so your 4th point needs to be bolded, italicized, and double-underlined. Putting it in red flashing characters would help too (see also: toilet paper during a respiratory pandemic for an example of logistical nightmares).

    [“4th point” is “a highly developed transportation system]

    An example the author of the cited article gives is that we won’t own kitchen appliances (she mentions pasta maker and crepe cooker, which itself gives us a glimpse into her lifestyle) but will borrow them (for free) whenever we want it and it will be delivered (for free). I begin to picture a street (or airspace) filled with robots and drones delivering on a daily basis the tools of daily life, a picture that puts today’s traffic jams to shame. And the logistics? Again on my price hobby-horse, how many pasta makers and crepe cookers are in the central warehouse? How confident can I be that the delivery system will get the exact model I expect to my door at the exact time I want it? And what prevents users from over-ordering “just in case” (“I’m not sure if I want pasta or crepes for dinner, so I’ll have them deliver both.”)?

    • #38
  9. Dr. Bastiat Member
    Dr. Bastiat
    @drbastiat

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):
    An example the author of the cited article gives is that we won’t own kitchen appliances (she mentions pasta maker and crepe cooker, which itself gives us a glimpse into her lifestyle) but will borrow them (for free) whenever we want it and it will be delivered (for free).

    Not to be overly cynical, but I’ll bet she was sober when she wrote this.  Which is terrifying.

    • #39
  10. Spin Inactive
    Spin
    @Spin

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):
    The Acton Institute agrees with you. Economics is inextricably linked to human anthropology. Free enterprise is the only system that comports with human dignity. 

    Is there some article you can point us to that informs this statement, please?

    • #40
  11. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Goldgeller (View Comment):

    I didn’t read the article but I gather I’ve seen similar arguments before. I guess… to be a contrarian, let’s think about owning nothing: I think its an overstatement, and it isn’t clear that it’s a good thing socially or even from an aesthetic point of view, but generally we (the US, on average) own very little right? Many of us, but not all, lease but don’t buy our cars, rent apartment, or have a mortgage on a house. If you play video-games and it is digital, or use spotify, you own the right to play the game as long as Steam servers or the developers allow you to (I think about P.T. getting pulled from the PSN store).

    So we own a couple of things. I mean, credit card debt aside (let’s just assume we pay that off) you have a computer, some clothes, some food, a phone. But what else? And I think it is important to ask how that informs policy going forward. If we are moving towards a low attachment society– how do you make policy? Ex: A lot of people probably increasingly feel like they are “world citizens” because they really basically only own some clothes and a laptop. Their main source of connection is to a multinational corporation. How do you make policy and enforce norms in that world? It’s a tough question I think.

    Think of control more than legal ownership. Or of how the two interact. 

    • #41
  12. Preston Storm Inactive
    Preston Storm
    @PrestonStorm

    The Land of “Happy”

    Have you been to the land of happy,
    Where everyone’s happy all day,
    Where they joke and they sing
    Of the happiest things,
    And everything’s jolly and gay?
    There’s no one unhappy in Happy
    There’s laughter and smiles galore.
    I have been to The Land of Happy-
    What a bore

    -Shel Silverstein

    • #42
  13. SkipSul Inactive
    SkipSul
    @skipsul

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):
    An example the author of the cited article gives is that we won’t own kitchen appliances (she mentions pasta maker and crepe cooker, which itself gives us a glimpse into her lifestyle) but will borrow them (for free) whenever we want it and it will be delivered (for free).

    Not to be overly cynical, but I’ll bet she was sober when she wrote this. Which is terrifying.

    Not as terrifying as what she dreams up when drunk [with power].

    • #43
  14. Gossamer Cat Coolidge
    Gossamer Cat
    @GossamerCat

    Welcome to 2060

    I don’t  own anything, have no privacy.  

    I have no food, I am drunk all the time

    And so is everyone else

    Please help!

    • #44
  15. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    Gossamer Cat (View Comment):

    Welcome to 2060

    I don’t own anything, have no privacy.

    I have no food, I am drunk all the time

    And so is everyone else

    Please help!

    Sounds like the Soviet Union in 1960.

    • #45
  16. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    deleted.  Duplicate

    • #46
  17. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Gossamer Cat (View Comment):

    Welcome to 2060

    I don’t own anything, have no privacy.

    I have no food, I am drunk all the time

    And so is everyone else

    Please help!

    Dr Ezekiel Emanuel might have some ideas. 

    • #47
  18. aardo vozz Member
    aardo vozz
    @aardovozz

    SkipSul (View Comment):

    It’s funny how these elite snobs always think that with “the end of work” nobody will have to fix or repair a damned thing. Then again, he probably doesn’t even know that plumbers would still exist, and wouldn’t figure it out until the [crap] backed up into his townhouse… that he doesn’t own.

    These distopian hellscapes only ever envision life for the elites, not for the proles who have to keep the damned illusion going for them.

    Sorry. Didn’t mean to flag😳

    • #48
  19. SkipSul Inactive
    SkipSul
    @skipsul

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    Gossamer Cat (View Comment):

    Welcome to 2060

    I don’t own anything, have no privacy.

    I have no food, I am drunk all the time

    And so is everyone else

    Please help!

    Sounds like the Soviet Union in 1960.

    Or Wednesday 2 weeks ago for some.

    • #49
  20. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):

    thelonious (View Comment):

    If we were all Scandinavian it might work. But alas…

    It didn’t even work there.

    Heck, it didn’t even work in Jamestown.

    It doesn’t work. Because it doesn’t take human nature into account.

    I don’t know if he still does it, but Rush used to read “The real story of Thanksgiving” each year, which describes a lot of it in great detail.

    • #50
  21. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    SkipSul (View Comment):

    It’s funny how these elite snobs always think that with “the end of work” nobody will have to fix or repair a damned thing. Then again, he probably doesn’t even know that plumbers would still exist, and wouldn’t figure it out until the [crap] backed up into his townhouse… that he doesn’t own.

    These distopian hellscapes only ever envision life for the elites, not for the proles who have to keep the damned illusion going for them.

    I did read the article. It’s short, easy to read, and the author acknowledges that readers may not agree that the end result is as good as he presents it. He does talk of the wonders of public transportation eliminating the need for private vehicles (except for the occasional recreational trip on a bicycle), but clearly he isn’t thinking about anyone with need to get tools or supplies to a job site to build or to repair something. His assumption is that the public transportation is so ubiquitous that he can go wherever and whenever he wants. Won’t that cause congestion all on its own?

    I may be reading too much into a brief article, but the author seems to be envisioning a life adrift. A life of endless pleasures but without purpose or challenge.

    Even bicycles break down.  Get flat tires, etc.  Are we supposed to believe that the robots will take care of all of that too?  How quickly are we supposed to have bicycle-repairing robots?  (And the robots that repair the bicycle-repairing robots?)

     

    • #51
  22. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Preston Storm (View Comment):

    The Land of “Happy”

    Have you been to the land of happy,
    Where everyone’s happy all day,
    Where they joke and they sing
    Of the happiest things,
    And everything’s jolly and gay?
    There’s no one unhappy in Happy
    There’s laughter and smiles galore.
    I have been to The Land of Happy-
    What a bore

    -Shel Silverstein

    Once again, Monty Python to the rescue:

     

    Actually I prefer the audio-only version from the albums:

     

    • #52
  23. No Caesar Thatcher
    No Caesar
    @NoCaesar

    You own nothing = you rent everything.

    You have no privacy = you are not able to think for yourself.

    Somebody has to make the “free” stuff, be they replicators or whatever.  

    • #53
  24. CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker Coolidge
    CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker
    @CarolJoy

    Stina (View Comment):

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):
    Marx has always struck me as someone who has never met a human being before. He has no idea what makes them tick.

    He had some things more right than some capitalists.

    He knew the nuclear family was a prime example of socialism that works. He knew capitalism would create amongst itself people dissatisfied with their position in the world if the familial safeguard was broken down. He knew that religious faith in God was a safeguard.

    These are things fiscal conservatives wrecked or saw no value in safeguarding.

    So I don’t think Marx lacked prescience. More like he knew how to brainwash his target.

    How would he have gone about brainwashing any target audience? First of all, he mistakenly believed that it would be workers in industrialized nations who would read his book, rise up and overthrow their societies. Except for a few small attempts like the Paris commune in the late 1880’s, the major revolution was in 1917 in Russia, a society which was agrarian not industrial.

    He should be admired for presenting an analysis of the structure of capitalism and its various in-built downsides. I don’t think he can be blamed for what happened to his theories, any more than an algebra teacher should be  blamed for a Mafia loan shark who uses the equations to stick it to a borrower.

    • #54
  25. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker (View Comment):

    Stina (View Comment):

    Dr. Bastiat (View Comment):
    Marx has always struck me as someone who has never met a human being before. He has no idea what makes them tick.

    He had some things more right than some capitalists.

    He knew the nuclear family was a prime example of socialism that works. He knew capitalism would create amongst itself people dissatisfied with their position in the world if the familial safeguard was broken down. He knew that religious faith in God was a safeguard.

    These are things fiscal conservatives wrecked or saw no value in safeguarding.

    So I don’t think Marx lacked prescience. More like he knew how to brainwash his target.

    How would he have gone about brainwashing any target audience? First of all, he mistakenly believed that it would be workers in industrialized nations who would read his book, rise up and overthrow their societies. Except for a few small attempts like the Paris commune in the late 1880’s, the major revolution was in 1917 in Russia, a society which was agrarian not industrial.

    He should be admired for presenting an analysis of the structure of capitalism and its various in-built downsides. I don’t think he can be blamed for what happened to his theories, any more than an algebra teacher should be blamed for a Mafia loan shark who uses the equations to stick it to a borrower.

    But was Marx just describing, not advocating?

    • #55
  26. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker (View Comment):

     

    He should be admired for presenting an analysis of the structure of capitalism and its various in-built downsides. I don’t think he can be blamed for what happened to his theories, any more than an algebra teacher should be blamed for a Mafia loan shark who uses the equations to stick it to a borrower.

    Oh, I think we can blame him alright.  His analysis of capitalism is dead wrong right from the square one.    The entire analysis is predicated on The Labor Theory of Value.    Without LTV the whole thing collapses into a smouldering ruin.   And LTV is just plain wrong.  So we can and should blame him in the same way we’d blame the engineer of a bridge that collapsed and killed everybody on it.

    • #56
  27. Dr. Bastiat Member
    Dr. Bastiat
    @drbastiat

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker (View Comment):

     

    He should be admired for presenting an analysis of the structure of capitalism and its various in-built downsides. I don’t think he can be blamed for what happened to his theories, any more than an algebra teacher should be blamed for a Mafia loan shark who uses the equations to stick it to a borrower.

    Oh, I think we can blame him alright. His analysis of capitalism is dead wrong right from the square one. The entire analysis is predicated on The Labor Theory of Value. Without LTV the whole thing collapses into a smouldering ruin. And LTV is just plain wrong. So we can and should blame him in the same way we’d blame the engineer of a bridge that collapsed and killed everybody on it.

    Can’t like this comment enough.

    Absolutely correct.

    • #57
  28. Stina Inactive
    Stina
    @CM

    kedavis (View Comment):
    But was Marx just describing, not advocating?

    I thought he did both. I don’t think he liked capitalism.

    Ekosj (View Comment):
    His analysis of capitalism is dead wrong right from the square one.

    I don’t think we can draw this conclusion after 100 years and finding ourselves exactly where he predicted we would be. There are blind spots in capitalism and there are cultural safeguards that are critical to cultivate alongside it.

    I think we should be taking some of those criticisms seriously. Not to get rid of capitalism, but to make it better.

    • #58
  29. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    Stina (View Comment):
    I don’t think we can draw this conclusion after 100 years and finding ourselves exactly where he predicted we would be.

    I’d disagree.    He predicted wages of the entire laboring class dropping to subsistence levels driven by the surplus army of the unemployed.  That has certainly not happened.   Not even close.  Capitalism has raised more people out of poverty than any other force in history. 

    • #59
  30. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Ekosj (View Comment):

    Stina (View Comment):
    I don’t think we can draw this conclusion after 100 years and finding ourselves exactly where he predicted we would be.

    I’d disagree. He predicted wages of the entire laboring class dropping to subsistence levels driven by the surplus army of the unemployed. That has certainly not happened. Not even close. Capitalism has raised more people out of poverty than any other force in history.

    I might add “so far.”

    • #60
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