Don’t Blame Restaurants for Covid Spread

 

Last week, I sat with a new potential restaurant client, six feet apart and fully masked, of course. Let’s call her Viola.

Viola told me her story. She and her husband are both non-citizens, with a strong entrepreneurial spirit—and they opened a small restaurant a few years ago in Scottsdale, AZ. It’s in a hard-to-find location that is, however, usually found by tourists from all over the US and Canada in the booming tourism season in the Desert Southwest.

Enter 2020. Viola told me how they had finally picked up traction in their tiny spot; she shared stories of her regular customers, expanding hours, wine dinners, and more. They were so confident and excited, that she purchased a building to expand into with a new concept that would eventually also house her existing restaurant. That all happened in January.

Then came March. On March 17, restaurants were shut down for dine-in services statewide. Viola explained with tears in her eyes the pain she felt having to lay off her entire staff.

She spoke of haggling with her vendors over outstanding invoices; the cost of sanitizing products and how hard “to-go” really was for this tiny place with an elevated menu that didn’t offer take-out prior to the shutdown.

With every word, I felt my chest start to tighten. Her story is so similar to the dozens of restaurant clients I work with. The tears, the clenched fists—and the visceral pain—all too common in a year that has decimated an entire industry.

And hear this: when I say decimated, I mean demolished. Trashed. Ruined. Never to return to the way it was. I do not think the average person in America truly understands the shape this industry is in. It’s bad. It’s beyond bad. It’s dream crushing and soul upending. According to the National Restaurant Association (NRA), the industry as a whole is down more than $215 billion dollars over the past eight months.

In fact, the NRA put out a press release Tuesday essentially pleading with governors not to lay the blame for the second wave of COVID at the feet of restaurant owners. Many, if not all, of whom have spent millions of dollars (collectively) to comply with all the rules and regulations set forth by each state, hoping and praying it would be enough to restart dine-in services and to restart the necessary cash flow needed to operate at any level.

As more states start to reenact or tighten lockdowns on dine-in service, I fear my state may not be far behind. In March, before we had real data or even understood the virus, most of us accepted the fate of closing dine-in service in restaurants with minimal grumbling.

As the time has gone on, mask mandates, occupancy limits, etc., have allowed restaurants to reopen. Anecdotally, I have heard from most of my client base that many are tracking about 80 to 90 percent of normal revenue. A welcome change from being down those same percentages throughout second quarter and beyond. That is of course, the restaurants who remain still in business.

Nationally, according to QSR magazine, 100,000 restaurants are expected to cease operations permanently before the end of 2020. Moreover, 40 percent of restauranteurs surveyed did not think they could keep operations going at the current pace for more than six months. As one of my clients told me, “It’s really a matter of how long you can last before you simply run out of money.”

PPP dollars are long gone and, with a stalemate in Congress that seems to be stalling any sort of future relief, for many owners another shut down spells one thing: “G O O D B Y E.”

So, what do we do for owners like Viola and countless others?

First: Stop blaming restaurants for the spread without scientific evidence and contact tracing. They are a scapegoat and, frankly, have been through far enough in 2020 to continue to accept such a large swath of blame.

Second: For the love of all things holy, Congress—stop with the stalemate. Pass some comprehensive relief for small business owners.

Third, personal responsibility is truly the antidote to this virus. Be smart, don’t go out if you are sick, wash your hands, care about your neighbors, comply with mask mandates. Do what you can personally.

Finally, support your local restaurants. Dine-in safely if you are allowed or order carry-out. If you can’t or won’t do that, consider purchasing a gift card or two for future use. If you love a place, support them, because without that critical support, there’s a high percentage chance they won’t be open when we return to any semblance of normal.

Susie Timm is a former bank president who started a public relations and marketing firm in 2009, specializing in restaurants and hospitality.

Published in Business, Economics
Like this post? Want to comment? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Join Ricochet for Free.

There are 79 comments.

Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.
  1. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Percival (View Comment):

    Weeping (View Comment):

    TBA (View Comment):

    Restaurants and bars should get not have to pay for their licenses this year; the same government(s) that make them pay money to be in business are preventing them from doing that business.

    Also; when is it going to occur to these clowns that killing industry means they get less tax money to run their programs with?

    I’ve been wondering the exact same thing.

    They’ll just print up more.

    We are so going to be Venezuela.

    They don’t need to print actual money, any more than they needed to print actual fraudulent ballots.

    • #61
  2. Biden Pure Demagogue Inactive
    Biden Pure Demagogue
    @Pseudodionysius

    We need to continue to emphasize social distancing, masks, and hand sanitation while we churn out vaccines. 

    Ah yes, the Moderna vaccine developed with aborted fetal stem cell lines. Charming. Are you aware of the health effects of being injected with fetal DNA fragments?

    If you’re pressed for time listen to minutes 11 through 13.

    • #62
  3. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Old Bathos (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Old Bathos (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Old Bathos (View Comment):

    MiMac (View Comment):

    Phil Turmel (View Comment):

    Susie Timm: comply with mask mandates

    Masks deniers on the right are akin to those on the left who doubt that only women have periods. The fact that many Governors enact stupid policies (curfews, ban churches etc) doesn’t detract from the efficacy of masks. The data on the efficacy of masks continues to grow.Just today I got the following references in emails:

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7510705/

    There is plenty more- for a taste:

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7368149/pdf/main.pdf

    If you read the literature, avoid retracted studies/articles (NEJM May opinion piece or the 2015 MacIntrye study on cloth masks). I would not place much emphasis on studies of the flu (THIS AIN’T THE FLU) since we now have a number of studies on coronaviruses. I would also not put much faith in modeling studies since we have multiple observational studies available(plus models depend greatly on the assumptions made).

    As for restaurants- there is data showing increased risk from going to such establishments (altho bars are worse)-https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/09/more-evidence-points-bars-adding-covid-19-spread

    THE MAIN REASON FOR MASKS IS TO ALLOW US TO NOT CLOSE THINGS DOWN. (https://reason.com/2020/11/16/masks-are-a-tool-not-a-panacea/).

    As for myself- I try to use take out often & heavily tip.

    Please point to any country or US state in which mask mandates had an actual, measurable effect on the case or death curve and caused that curve to vary in any way.

    Just read the 1st linked article- it has references- really just read…..of course that is the whole point of my post- the data is there-ignoring it doesn’t make it false-nor is ignoring facts a winning longterm proposition in the electorate. The lefts great weakness is the denial of Truth-we should lead with the truth wherever we can.

    Hospitals, small groups … What I don’t see is how any of that has translated into broad policy outcomes. I have looked at state and country COVID data curves obsessively and plotted policy implementation dates and there is not even a blip. Anywhere.

    I have no doubt that a competent health care professional with access to quality PPE is bound to have a better outcome. The point you keep missing is that the wonderfulness of the tech in the right hands does not translate into broad policy and that is the entire point. Using your methodology, the US must have won the Vietnam war because all the weapons tests and training exercises clearly indicated vast superiority.

    What I asked you to do was to point to a graph of any jurisdiction’s COVID case or death data and show me where the POLICY has had an impact.

    Because you cannot do that and because you are absolutely correct that the PPE tech can and does work under the right conditions, why isn’t the best policy max PPE around caregivers, medical professionals and the vulnerable instead of silly delaying actions in an utterly futile attempt to control general spread?

    If masks are only marginally effective, doesn’t that merely delay the spread, delay herd immunity (which appears to kick in at a pretty low percentage) and keep Granny at a not significantly reduced risk for a significantly longer period of time? What is the point of that?

    There is no proof herd immunity kicks in at low levels-NONE- it is solely conjecture. There is no proof herd immunity is lasting-NONE. In fact, herd immunity depends on several factors and mitigation steps LOWER the levels of infection required for herd immunity. The best way to achieve herd immunity is a combo of vaccines and mitigation. We never set out to achieve “herd immunity” by letting a disease rip thru our community. To seek “herd immunity” by letting the virus spread widely at this point is clearly unacceptable-operation warp speed is on the cusp of success. Two effective vaccines with the capability to make 40+ million doses a month is a game changer(and operation warp speed was predicated on starting manufacture of the vaccines DURING testing-ie by December we should have 40 million doses ). If herd immunity occurs at low levels than the vaccines will quickly reach herd immunity WITHOUT killing granny. Many here have claimed that the epidemic was over this summer (or quoted faux-experts- like Dr Levitt) and have consistently disparaged mitigating strategies-which not only work, but up until this month where the only effective steps we could take. We need to continue to emphasize social distancing, masks, and hand sanitation while we churn out vaccines. The more we employ mitigation steps the more we can keep the economy open- it isn’t either nothing or lockdowns.

    1. No response to the question about actual statistical impact on COVID cases or deaths from mask policy in any jurisdictions so I guess that point is conceded.

    2. When Senator Paul asked Dr. Fauci if the apparent end of the pandemic in NYC indicated herd immunity and Fauci snapped that “22%” was not herd immunity, Fauci then made the preposterous claim that NY following CDC guidelines was the cause of the decline. At that time the identical curve over the identical time frame occurred in Sweden, Italy, NJ and MA and across most of western Europe and those entities took highly varied approaches. Fauci was demonstrably wrong.

    If there is existing resistance from past exposure to COVID variants then the functional equivalent of herd immunity does in fact kick in at a lower pct as found in this paper: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v3 which would also explain why Sweden and NYC now have low incidence of positive testing results even with a low overall incidence of antibodies.

    3. Not “allowing a disease to rip through a population” presumes that there is a timely alternative (and that the prescribed fix is not more damaging to public health than the disease). Closing the schools was stupid. Lockdowns of more than two weeks were criminally irresponsible. The entire world is aware of recommended mitigation methods some of which are mandated in some places. But COVID still does exactly what it wants in the exact same pattern in every similar region. We are in effect already letting it rip through our various Potemkin prevention barriers.

    Given that COVID is remarkably mild, asymptomatic or resisted by an identifiable vast majority of the population and given that control measures have not worked to control the spread then why not “let er rip” in that majority (it is happening anyway) but instead focus PPE-based strategies where there is higher risk and more potential benefit?

    4. There appears to be a lot of evidence of lasting T-cell immunity (See, e.g., https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383463v1.full.pdf )

    As contagious as it is, COVID does not spread exponentially. The rise and fall patterns suggests to me that we are not all equally susceptible and that the bug runs out of susceptible, high social contact carriers and ideal climate conditions in a fairly predictable way, way below pure herd immunity incidence. Why did over 80% of the two studied shipboard populations with COVID breakouts test negative if there is not some source of native resistance?

    It would make sense to isolate the vulnerable for the duration of that predictable curve in that particular place but not do anything more costly than sustained mitigation advice for the rest. Exposure to COVID in the low-to-no risk majority could build a T-cell record that likely helps us all in the future.

    As for predictability, I just won a small bet by predicting in October (a) the date of peak case count in MT, UT, ND and CO within a day (it was 11/13 and 11/14) and (b) that all four would peak within a day of each other. If there were an exacta play available, I would have cleaned up. The bug does what it does in regional patterns and we don’t seem to have any impact on that no matter what the Governors or Anthony Fauci think they are achieving.

    IMPORTANT NOTE: Under no circumstances are you to think that our disagreement indicates any adverse personal judgments. Your comments are invariably substantive, thoughtful and well-founded and a cut above even the generally high quality of Ricochet comments. I think the essence of the disagreement is the substantive differences between theory and practice in large policy applications.
    Cheers.

    1) was addressed in my initial post- as I said earlier the 1st article cited has data demonstrating that mask use lead to a reduced spread in the relevant counties- it is unwise to insist on data for your jurisdiction when ample data from other places exist to guide decision making when the actions are low cost(masks, social distancing). Requiring local data for important, time sensitive would obviate almost all actions-because you would act to late. One shouldn’t wait for the wind to gust to over 120 mph in your own town to prepare for a hurricane better to observe the data from the next town over. I would insist on local data for extreme measures like lockdowns & school closure (which seems to be, all to often, the go to move). But for masks & social distancing one need not wait for local data-mainly because the data lags and the asymptomatic spread is a major problem.

    2) No one knows what the level for herd immunity is-it is unwise to assume it is so low that we are near it.

    3)bad decisions by politicians doesn’t alter the fact that masks work(as I have indicated before). Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water. If we rid ourselves of all good policies because of bad moves by politicians- then NY & California would be in absolute anarchy( I admit anarchy is only slightly worse than DeBlazio). Furthermore there is a timely alternative- by Pfizer & Modena- we will have 120+ MILLION doses in a few months- that, with whatever level of infection related immunity we have, should achieve herd immunity.

    the ships are a unique case- in at least one strict quarantine measure were employed that we wouldn’t replicate in the community. There is probably some native immunity from other coronavirus (cross reactivity) but we lack sufficient knowledge to draw any conclusions at this point. 

    on your last point, I couldn’t agree more & wish I could write such a note as well as you did. 

    • #63
  4. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Biden Pure Demagogue (View Comment):

    We need to continue to emphasize social distancing, masks, and hand sanitation while we churn out vaccines.

    Ah yes, the Moderna vaccine developed with aborted fetal stem cell lines. Charming. Are you aware of the health effects of being injected with fetal DNA fragments?

    If you’re pressed for time listen to minutes 11 through 13.

    Absolutely FALSE- neither Pfizer nor Moderna use fetal cells.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/moderna-covid-vaccine-did-not-use-fetal-cells/

    edit- the video won’t play-it is a interview from the National Catholic Center for Bioethics on the Pfizer vaccine.  Here is an article on vaccines and fetal cells:

    http://phillycatholiclife.org/life-affirming-choices-3/covid-19-vaccines-explained/

    • #64
  5. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):

    Weeping (View Comment):

    TBA (View Comment):

    Restaurants and bars should get not have to pay for their licenses this year; the same government(s) that make them pay money to be in business are preventing them from doing that business.

    Also; when is it going to occur to these clowns that killing industry means they get less tax money to run their programs with?

    I’ve been wondering the exact same thing.

    They’ll just print up more.

    We are so going to be Venezuela.

    They don’t need to print actual money, any more than they needed to print actual fraudulent ballots.

    Whether they print it or drop it into individual bank accounts electronically, the results are the same.

    • #65
  6. Joshua Bissey Inactive
    Joshua Bissey
    @TheSockMonkey

    I’ve had the privilege of eating out several times, since the initial round of lock-down hysteria. I’m pretty sure restaurants in 2020 are the cleanest and safest they’ve ever, ever been. I expect they will be until at least the end of next year.

    I went to a sandwich shop a couple of times these past few months, where there was not a mask to be seen, except on a few of the customers. It was awesome.

    • #66
  7. Weeping Inactive
    Weeping
    @Weeping

    Percival (View Comment):

    Weeping (View Comment):

    TBA (View Comment):

    Restaurants and bars should get not have to pay for their licenses this year; the same government(s) that make them pay money to be in business are preventing them from doing that business.

    Also; when is it going to occur to these clowns that killing industry means they get less tax money to run their programs with?

    I’ve been wondering the exact same thing.

    They’ll just print up more.

    We are so going to be Venezuela.

    • #67
  8. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Weeping (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):

    Weeping (View Comment):

    TBA (View Comment):

    Restaurants and bars should get not have to pay for their licenses this year; the same government(s) that make them pay money to be in business are preventing them from doing that business.

    Also; when is it going to occur to these clowns that killing industry means they get less tax money to run their programs with?

    I’ve been wondering the exact same thing.

    They’ll just print up more.

    We are so going to be Venezuela.

     

    I guess that means it’s time to stock up on TP again.  Didn’t they run out of that pretty fast in Venezuela?

     

    • #68
  9. JustmeinAZ Member
    JustmeinAZ
    @JustmeinAZ

    Joshua Bissey (View Comment):

    I’ve had the privilege of eating out several times, since the initial round of lock-down hysteria. I’m pretty sure restaurants in 2020 are the cleanest and safest they’ve ever, ever been. I expect they will be until at least the end of next year.

    I went to a sandwich shop a couple of times these past few months, where there was not a mask to be seen, except on a few of the customers. It was awesome.

    Yep. I’d say maybe 25% of the restaurants in our area ask you to wear a mask upon entering; none require a mask at your table. You’ll always see a diner or two with a mask on at their table, otherwise everyone acts normally.

    What gets me (and it doesn’t really bother me) is that the restrooms in stores, restaurants and medical offices seem to be business as usual. I never see anyone rushing in to clean after I’ve left.

    • #69
  10. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    JustmeinAZ (View Comment):

    Joshua Bissey (View Comment):

    I’ve had the privilege of eating out several times, since the initial round of lock-down hysteria. I’m pretty sure restaurants in 2020 are the cleanest and safest they’ve ever, ever been. I expect they will be until at least the end of next year.

    I went to a sandwich shop a couple of times these past few months, where there was not a mask to be seen, except on a few of the customers. It was awesome.

    Yep. I’d say maybe 25% of the restaurants in our area ask you to wear a mask upon entering; none require a mask at your table. You’ll always see a diner or two with a mask on at their table, otherwise everyone acts normally.

    What gets me (and it doesn’t really bother me) is that the restrooms in stores, restaurants and medical offices seem to be business as usual. I never see anyone rushing in to clean after I’ve left.

    That’s interesting, because what I noticed – and what I had a problem with since I’ve had ulcerative colitis for over 30 years – were the places that had their restrooms closed entirely.  Including Smart and Final stores and Panda Express in Phoenix.

    • #70
  11. Skyler Coolidge
    Skyler
    @Skyler

    JustmeinAZ (View Comment):
    What gets me (and it doesn’t really bother me) is that the restrooms in stores, restaurants and medical offices seem to be business as usual. I never see anyone rushing in to clean after I’ve left.

    That’s because it’s all kabuki and has less to do with preventing disease than it does with requiring obedience.  I’m over it, myself.  I was willing to put aside my doubt in the beginning but unless the death rate gets about 20 times worse than it has been, it is certainly not worth what we’ve put up with.

    • #71
  12. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Skyler (View Comment):

    JustmeinAZ (View Comment):
    What gets me (and it doesn’t really bother me) is that the restrooms in stores, restaurants and medical offices seem to be business as usual. I never see anyone rushing in to clean after I’ve left.

    That’s because it’s all kabuki and has less to do with preventing disease than it does with requiring obedience. I’m over it, myself. I was willing to put aside my doubt in the beginning but unless the death rate gets about 20 times worse than it has been, it is certainly not worth what we’ve put up with.

    Unfortunately, to paraphrase Lenin -you may be over with  the coronavirus, but the coronavirus is not over with you….

    • #72
  13. Buckpasser Member
    Buckpasser
    @Buckpasser

    Was everyone wearing a mask last year?  If not, you killed a friend of mine who died of the flu.  Masks are not the America I grew up in.

    • #73
  14. Skyler Coolidge
    Skyler
    @Skyler

    Buckpasser (View Comment):

    Was everyone wearing a mask last year? If not, you killed a friend of mine who died of the flu. Masks are not the America I grew up in.

    And the sad thing is that they’ve so successfully terrorized most people that in 80 years, long after this disease is cured or gone, there will be little old ladies, probably named Karen, who will still wear masks everywhere they go.  They will never stop being afraid.

    • #74
  15. Biden Pure Demagogue Inactive
    Biden Pure Demagogue
    @Pseudodionysius

    Ah, yes, the shills at NR and the NCBC. No, thanks. Children of God for Life spilled the real goods:

    Now, if you still need convincing that Moderna is using HEK-293 cells, this is straight from their own website:

    https://www.modernatx.com/newsroom/publications

    And from their Publications page, see this link:
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-020-0163-z

    Since it deals with lung infection (which Covid-19 causes) it seems like a pretty good reference to what they are doing. The use of 293 cells is cited in several places including in the supplementary information. That is linked here:

     

    • #75
  16. Biden Pure Demagogue Inactive
    Biden Pure Demagogue
    @Pseudodionysius

    In vitro mRNA Expression

    HEK293T cells were transiently transfected with mRNA encoding SARS-CoV-2 WT S or S-2P protein using a TranIT mRNA transfection kit (Mirus). After 24 hr, the cells were harvested and resuspended in FACS buffer (1X PBS, 3% FBS, 0.05% sodium azide). To detect surface protein expression, the cells were stained with 10 µg/mL ACE2-FLAG (Sigma) or 10 µg/mL CR302235 in FACS buffer for 30 min on ice. Thereafter, cells were washed twice in FACS buffer and incubated with FITC anti-FLAG (Sigma) or Alexafluor 647 goat anti-human IgG (Southern Biotech) in FACS buffer for 30 min on ice. Live/Dead aqua fixable stain (Invitrogen) were utilized to assess viability. Data acquisition was performed on a BD LSRII Fortessa instrument (BD Biosciences) and analyzed by FlowJo software v10 (Tree Star, Inc.)

    • #76
  17. MiMac Thatcher
    MiMac
    @MiMac

    Biden Pure Demagogue (View Comment):

    In vitro mRNA Expression

    HEK293T cells were transiently transfected with mRNA encoding SARS-CoV-2 WT S or S-2P protein using a TranIT mRNA transfection kit (Mirus). After 24 hr, the cells were harvested and resuspended in FACS buffer (1X PBS, 3% FBS, 0.05% sodium azide). To detect surface protein expression, the cells were stained with 10 µg/mL ACE2-FLAG (Sigma) or 10 µg/mL CR302235 in FACS buffer for 30 min on ice. Thereafter, cells were washed twice in FACS buffer and incubated with FITC anti-FLAG (Sigma) or Alexafluor 647 goat anti-human IgG (Southern Biotech) in FACS buffer for 30 min on ice. Live/Dead aqua fixable stain (Invitrogen) were utilized to assess viability. Data acquisition was performed on a BD LSRII Fortessa instrument (BD Biosciences) and analyzed by FlowJo software v10 (Tree Star, Inc.)

    The early development of the mRNA technology itself may have involved the use of cells derived from human fetus – but not current mRNA vaccine technology in these instances- that is a significant difference (actually the quotes from COG website only seem to support that Moderna has used fetal tissues in OTHER vaccine development). If we refuse to use any knowledge not obtained in a pristine manner then we will know very little. By your criteria all current surgery must stop b/c the early technological development relied on vivisection-even though no one has used that in ages (I will leave the Nazis & Imperial Japan out of this to avoid Godwin’s law). NCBC and Wesley Smith(NR) are hardly shills- Arthur Caplan has already occupied that position. The NCBC has an impressive membership-Fr Tad Pacholczyk alone has more expertise than the entire board of children of god for life combined. The last link I provided has links to a number of sites and evaluations of the prospective vaccines in development (http://phillycatholiclife.org/life-affirming-choices-3/covid-19-vaccines-explained/).

    addendum- good articles on vaccines & ethics:

    https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/11/72866/

    https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/11/72753/

    https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/05/63752/

    also of note one of the cell lines (HEK293) might not be problematic at all & it is the most frequently used one. It’s developer has said he doesn’t know if the cells were from a miscarriage or an abortion.

    • #77
  18. Randy Webster Inactive
    Randy Webster
    @RandyWebster

    TBA (View Comment):
    Also; when is it going to occur to these clowns that killing industry means they get less tax money to run their programs with? 

    There are printing presses.  And they expect the Feds to bail them out.

    • #78
  19. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Randy Webster (View Comment):

    TBA (View Comment):
    Also; when is it going to occur to these clowns that killing industry means they get less tax money to run their programs with?

    There are printing presses. And they expect the Feds to bail them out.

    Federal bailouts might work except the feds are in the same boat.

    • #79
Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.