Contributor Post Created with Sketch. The Sustainable Phase in Space

 

Space has been through several periods of rapid growth alternating with stagnation. Sputnik I through Apollo 11 was a rocket ride, figuratively as well as literally. The rest of the 1970s was flat, followed by growth spurts and flat spells during the Shuttle and ISS programs. Since the Shuttle stopped flying, until this year space seemed stuck on stop. Suddenly things are moving again, rapidly.

“America’s New Destiny in Space” by Glenn Harlan Reynolds explains what is happening and why. He asserts we are entering the third and greatest phase of space exploration and development. Today’s apparent sudden space growth spurt is not really sudden. It began nearly a decade ago, around the time the Shuttle program ended

Reynolds identifies trends. He divides space development into three phases. The visionary phase (as imagined by Verne, Tsiolkovsky, and Goddard) defined space’s potential. This was followed by the command-economy phase (run by government space agencies like NASA and Kosmicheskaya). This phase provided massive muscle growth in space. Yet like a muscle-builder on steroids, command-economy spaceflight ultimately yielded sterility and lacked flexibility. The sustainable phase (SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, et. al.) is the payoff. This phase is where spaceflight that generates enough economic value to pay its own way. Reynolds asserts we have entered the sustainable phase.

The key to sustainability is cost. Reynolds identifies how much cost has dropped: from $57,000 per kilogram to $2,700 – with indications it could be as low as $250 per kilogram in a few years. To put that in a historical perspective that represents a percentage cost drop analogous to what was seen in shipping when the shipping container was introduced in 1956. That created the global economy. Similar drops in launch costs will transform space.

Reynolds spends the rest of “America’s New Destiny in Space” outlining the immediate and long-term benefits of being in the sustainable phase. The real benefit will be its ability to expand human potential. It lifts barriers on resources and offers a new frontier.

“America’s New Destiny in Space” is a pamphlet. It contains less than 50 pages of text. Yet in those pages, Reynolds provides the executive summary of our future in space. This is not a detailed description of what will happen next. Rather, Reynolds uses broad strokes to create a vivid depiction of our possibilities. It is ideal for anyone who wants a fast, accurate outline of what is coming next.

“America’s New Destiny in Space” by Glenn Harlan Reynolds, Encounter Books, 2020, 51 pages, $9.99 (paperback), $8.99 (Kindle)

This review was written by Mark Lardas who writes at Ricochet as Seawriter. Mark Lardas, an engineer, freelance writer, historian, and model-maker, lives in League City, TX. His website is marklardas.com.

Published in Science & Technology
Like this post? Want to comment? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Get your first month free.

There are 2 comments.

Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.
  1. Chris Gregerson Member
    Chris Gregerson Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    This is so exciting. I watched the first Mercury missions in my elementary school auditorium on 19 inch black and white TVs. Now they are commercializing space flight! I wonder what it will cost to have my coffin flown to cremation in the Sun in about 15 years or so?

    • #1
    • November 1, 2020, at 8:23 PM PST
    • 1 like
  2. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter

    Chris Gregerson (View Comment):
    I wonder what it will cost to have my coffin flown to cremation in the Sun in about 15 years or so?

    I hate to imagine the delta-V for that. You would have to kill a velocity to the Earth’s rotational velocity. If you got it wrong, you would end up slingshotting around the Sun and end up as Comet Gregerson.

    • #2
    • November 2, 2020, at 5:08 AM PST
    • 1 like