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Confirmation bias is a real thing. I understand that. I try to behave rationally and look at all the data, but it amazes me how people often look at things as black or white and in particular as it relates to this election. I do not see anything as black and white. I think people who look at bare numbers, without understand nuance, get bad results. But, I also understand that what I want to believe is often not what reflects reality.
I’ve seen pundits on both sides of the debate discussing the early voting and vote-by-mail numbers from Florida. As of this morning, here they are:
The apparent wisdom is that the Democrats have a 299,021 lead in votes. I think that misreads the situation on the ground very badly.
Florida requires a person to go to the courthouse and register as either a Republican or a Democrat in order to vote in the primary election, but it makes no such requirement to vote in the general. For many people, particularly thinking people (the kind of people who rejected Judge Roy Moore in Alabama and who will kick Doug Jones to the curb for his ACB vote) the idea of declaring your patronage to a particular party or platform seems counterintuitive. The only reason I registered as a Republican was to vote for Donald Trump in the primary in 2016. But I cross party lines when it’s appropriate to do so.
And for someone like me, who was in third grade when Kennedy was assassinated, I know that there have been decent Democrats in the past. I voted for Carter (disappointment) and for Obama (bigger disappointment). This was, of course, before Obama’s true self was revealed. But if I had been required to state a party affiliation in 1980 or 1990, I would have gone with No Party Affiliation. I really don’t think most races are affected by primaries because the people the party wants to win (in most cases) is the person who wins. That changed in 2016 with Trump. The party wanted someone “stable” and the people were tired of losing.
So, given that 1.2 million votes have been cast by people without a party affiliation, I have my doubts that Trump is behind 299,000 votes. First, I believe many of the folks who are NPA in the above numbers were recent registrants who had no desire to identify their party affiliation, and simply wanted to cast their vote for Mr. Trump. These are not the “shy” Trump voters, these are missed Trump supporters. They are not registered to a party, so they don’t get polled. And because they are a smaller sample of the electorate than those with party affiliations, they are not accounted for in the polling data as they should be. I believe, based on the folks I have talked to in Florida, Alabama, and Georgia, that the NPA people are going about 70% for Trump. That’s particularly true where they’re Hispanic.
Then you have to consider whether all those Democrat affiliations where the ballots are returned are really votes for Biden-Harris. Many of those voters registered 15 to 20 years ago, as Hispanics, and before the Democrat party went so far to the left that it fell off the plane of reason. These are folks like Max Alvarez who know that if the US falls, there is no other place to go to escape the horrors of socialism. It’s important to note that family ties and the Catholic religion are strong in Hispanic families, and Trump’s support for capitalism, his appointment of life-supporting federal and supreme court judges, and his support from the Hispanic business community all make a difference with them. Sure, they voted for Carter, Clinton, Kerry, and Gore because they believed the rhetoric. But they see Portland burning. They see Philadelphia – the cradle of liberty in America – on fire, and the police running from a mob, and they understand the playbook. They’ve seen this movie before and they know the ending is not a happy one.
Couple this with what we’re seeing: thousands of people at Trump rallies, tens of people at Biden’s. Car, truck, and boat parades organically organized in Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas, and elsewhere. People waving Trump flags at Cardi B in Los Angeles. People are excited to vote for Trump. Even the union worker who has voted Democrat 30 years in a row isn’t excited by Biden. They look at him the way a person looks at a barium enema.
Voters, particularly Hispanic voters, know the “Green New Deal” is really the green raw deal, and that the platform Biden presents is entirely aimed at the destruction of the nuclear family, elimination of the right to keep and bear arms, and eventually, packing the Supreme Court with liberal judges.
Of course, there are a lot of stupid people in this world. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Donald Trump could lose in Florida. But Biden has made only three trips to Florida since the campaign began. Trump has been all over Florida, from Pensacola to Miami, and he’s had surrogates out there campaigning hard in those areas. He has planned the work and is working the plan. He’s campaigning hard, showing the violence perpetrated by Democrat partisans and letting people know what is in store for the country if Biden wins. Even the polling data, which lag behind sentiment, show that he is moving the needle.
Biden should have taken a cue from Abraham Lincoln, who said that “things may come to those who wait, but only the things left over from those who hustle.” Trump has been on the trail, using the power of incumbency, touting his accomplishments over 47 months while comparing Biden’s failures over 47 years. Every day he is punching hard on the Biden laptop, the Biden corruption, and the lack of any substantive accomplishment. I found it hilarious he asked Nora O’Donnell on CBS “what’s he running on?” I wanted to scream “his record, you [insert appropriate expletive here].”
I have to tell you that if there was anything that would make me not vote for someone, it would be their promise to pack the Supreme Court. Biden’s tried to finesse this, but I don’t think anyone sentient believes him. The idea that you can simply install the judges necessary to get your way on questions of constitutional law should scare every voter. Because what it effectively means is the end of a constitutional republic. What the constitution means becomes the product of judges appointed to reason backward from result to rationale. Everyone understands the need to protect the Courts from politicization, but only Republicans seem committed to keep the Court at nine.
But, as I said, there are a lot of stupid people who don’t read, watch the network news, and respond to the emotional pleas designed to elicit fear and loathing. That number, however, has dwindled from prior years, and alternative media like Ricochet, Facebook, Twitter, Parler, and others provide a means to learn things that the mainstream media doesn’t want people to learn.
Still, Trump could lose Florida, but if he does, it is likely because of Biden’s “voter fraud” organization. It certainly won’t be because people are willing to low crawl over salted broken glass to vote for a doddering incompetent.Published in