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Watch the Polls Magically Tighten
Pollsters hate to be wrong. And they knew their thumbs have been on the scale all along. The time for theater and posturing is over: now they are going on the record, and no longer are fooling around.
Rasmussen yesterday showed Trump up by one point. As the election looms, watch ALL the pollsters adjust, and quickly. They each want, in hindsight, to be shown to be the most accurate company. So even if the actual support levels have not changed much, the polls are now showing strong swings for Trump.
Published in General
I’m probably wrong. But polls are an anachronism. I don’t normally believe polls, but when I do, I prefer to only believe the polls I like.
They are skewed to boost the Dems, and then just prior to the election they “tighten” just to hedge their previous bets and justify themselves if their previous prediction were wrong. They are seldom accurate, by whatever cause. And the are trying to be predictive of a result that will inevitably come anyway. Whom do polls help? Not the general public. But they may help only the campaigns, and that is only if they are right.
Otherwise polls are like guys at the track predicting who’s going to win the next race. And always it’s the house that is the only one that ever consistently wins.
The fact that every campaign relies on internal polling instead of published polls sort of gives the game away.
I keep reading hints that Biden’s campaign staff is dispirited and not even bothering to show up for work.
Biden certainly isn’t.
Bingo. Modern polling is in a turmoil because people don’t want to talk to pollsters. Why they don’t talk to pollsters is an unknown that bears on the result. Which means that pollsters construct models to “correct” the raw poll results. These “corrections” are pulled out of their asses. You can see just how scrambled the situation is if you look any any mainstream poll’s crosstabs. How they can get away with the “margins of error” claimed boggles the mind.
Isn’t it only unknown in the way that the reason Trump won in 2016 was unknown?
Some of us (me first!) were deeply confused about that.
It makes sense–now that time and a more facts and a few decent explainers have all done their work to clarify things.
People know when they’re perceived as deplorables by jerk elites with double standards, and they don’t trust those elites.
That’s enough motivation to support Brexit, to vote for Trump once or twice, or to not talk to pollsters.