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All that makes sense.
I really hope you’re right.
The comparison of the primary votes seems questionable to me since in 2016 Trump was running against a large field as was Biden in 2020. Otherwise I concur. I have never heard anyone say that he voted for Trump in 2016 and was so disappointed that he would abstain or vote against him in 2020. Even slight gains in typically Democrat minority groups seems likely to put him over the top.
Hope so. Don’t belive it.
The only way the options around the country would be at odds with the final vote results is if there really is a huge group of ‘shy’ Biden voters, who don’t go to rallies, don’t post yard signs or bumper stickers and are basically not so much for the candidate as they are burning with a white-hot desire to silently cast their ballots against Donald Trump.
It could be possible — in the battle between ‘freedom’ vs. ‘security’ in the COVID era, there is a chance Biden voters really are too scared of the virus to make public appearances out of fear of contracting the disease and possibly dying. That’s at least the spin for the claims that Biden has a significant lead among seniors, and I suppose it also could be true for the vast mob of suburban moms that are supposed to be out there itching to vote for Joe in order to return comity to the country.
But it does go against the other political activism of the summer, where people you’d assume are going to vote for Biden have had no problem turning out en masse for demonstrations, both peaceful and violent.
As you say, don’t know anyone who voted for Trump last time voting against him now. (Ann Coulter?) But I know people who didn’t vote last time who are voting for him this time. Like me.
From your laptop to God’s eyes.
Hope for the best. Expect the worst.
Barrak Obama got fewer votes in the 2012 primary than he did in the 2008 primary. Both George W. Bush and Clinton got fewer votes in their incumbent primaries than in the primaries in which they won the nomination to which they won their first nomination. It is rare for a President to get more primary votes in their second term race than in their first term race, and every time they have done so they went on to win the election. Also, most of Biden’s opponents dropped out in early March leaving him a clear field for the rest of the primary season.
I don’t know if Larry is right. I’m in the Doctor Robert camp. Hope for the best. Expect the worst.
As for The Undecideds, I want that as a television show.
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What am I missing? Did Gallup only poll those that voted in the primaries? Because all this tells me is that those Republicans who bothered with the primary didn’t vote in the primary for an alternative: Tells me nothing about the majority who don’t do Republican primaries, or those who felt they had to vote in the Dimocrat primary to have a say in local politics.
I wonder how many of the people who would be affected by Biden’s oil comment at the debate have already voted? There’s no way to tell, I suppose.
There is this piece on Powerline today.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/10/why-you-shouldnt-vote-early.php
The tweet linked to in the Powerline blog posts notes the spike in “How to I change my vote?” queries in New Mexico. Since 50 percent of the state’s oil and gas production is on federal lands, and nearly 40 percent of the state’s budget comes from oil and gas-related income, it’s a pretty good guess that if the trend line for the query is going straight up, that’s a lot of people who likely voted for Biden prior to Thursday’s debate and now realized they may have voted themselves or their family members out of jobs. There also are blotches of queries in the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston areas, as well as in Pennsylvania (and the northeast corridor in general), where Joe’s statement on fracking may have sparked the remorse.
That’s really interesting. I can’t tell if I want to scream or weep loudly.
On a mitigating circumstances note, the areas on the map shaded blue in New Mexico that are providing the Google queries for vote changing seem to be in the western part of the state, where NM basically trends from Republican the further southeast you go to Democrat the further northwest you are. Which means the oilfield areas that voted for Trump in 2016 aren’t having voter remorse, and will vote for him again this year. It’s the Hillary areas, where some people aren’t directly affected by oilfield jobs, but would be majorly impacted by a 40 percent plunge in state revenues, that seem to be asking if they can change their vote (the map also seems to show a large section of eastern Arizona also has been asking about changing votes. Not sure if that would tie into what Biden said on fracking at Thursday’s debate or if it’s something else).
I am trying to hope appropriately. I don’t want to end up as another kneel-scream meme.
If I were a betting man, which I am, I would bet 90% of undecides will vote for Trump.
I have one friend who is ‘undecided’: he knows Trump is the right pick because Biden is senile and unfit for office but his personal animus toward Trump is affecting his judgement
The day after the debate one of the popular searches on google was ‘how do I change my vote” especially in PA
https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/change-my-vote-search-phrase-trending-off-the-charts-in-pa-fl-nc-mi-ga-tx-wi-more/
The search phrase hit peak searches right after the debates–hitting the MAX limit of the Google search trends chart–and continued strong into the next day:
Is there comparison data for undecided in past years for this point in the cycle?
7% this year
Additionally, I am saddened by people so willing to vote early, before debates, when so much can happen.
And even more saddened that state governments support foolishness of changing early voting.
That’s just adding more chaos and opportunity for fraud and error to the process.
Oh wait, maybe that’s the point.
The undecided only 1%? Based on what? What do we actually know about what is being planned by Democrats? By Republicans?
Over 19 million Republicans voted in the 2020 primaries. Of those nearly 19 out of every 20 voted for Trump. Gallup took a sample of perhaps 5000 people for its poll. If we want to be really generous give them 20,000. Of those sampled something like 28% claimed to be Republican. (1400 out of 5000 or 5600 of 20,000). Of that sample only 3 out of every 4 (or 15 out of ever 20) said they were voting for Trump.
Any way you look at it that is a significant skew. 19 out of 20 people who actually voted in the Republican primary (and therefore identified themselves as Republican) voted for Trump. Of a much smaller sample set, only 15 out of 20 people who called themselves Republican when contacted said they were voting for Trump. 19+ million hard, actual data points versus maybe 5600 soft data points.
I worked with statistics and data for nearly 30 years as a Shuttle navigator. (Space navigation is all doing best fit on sets of remote observations.) The biggest part of the job – the reason humans were involved – was determining when data received was bad. For me, this kind of skew between actual and reported position would ring all kinds of alarm bells. A statistically accurate sample (which is what those 1400 or 5600) were should track close to actual results (18.2 millon of 19 million votes actually cast for Trump). Remember the larger the sample set, the more reliable it is.
What explains the almost 20 percent difference between the large data set and the much smaller sample? I can think of a number of explanations. The most obvious one is that there were a large number of Democrats who claimed to be Republicans when polled. (That could explain the change in party affiliation in polling results, but not the large swing seen in actual voter registration.) But there are other possiblities. These include the 94% of Republicans willing to vote for Trump being less willing to be polled while the 6% willing to vote for Biden being more likely to answer polls or the polling sample being taken disproportionately from area where Republican are less willing to vote for Trump (upper-middle-class suburbs and college towns rather than rural districts).
Since historically – except for the 1992 Presidential election with Ross Perot siphoning Republican votes from GHW Bush, at least 90 percent of Republicans vote for the incumbent candidate, your polling results should either match that 0r have a really, really solid explanation of why there is such a big difference. Especially since the primary results match historic performance.
If the Gallup poll were a radar unit, the results of which I was dependent upon to put my spacecraft on the runway, I would be checking its calibration before the deorbit burn. Because with that big an error you are not going to have enough energy to deadstick it to your runway. You are going to end up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico instead of Kennedy Space Center.
That is the significance of the primary results.
Only the ones who are still alive.
I’m expecting a new round of “You’re all going to die of COVID” stories to glut the media this week, in hopes of convincing swing voters they won’t be alive very long if Trump wins.
“Who will you be voting for, sir?”
Internal dialogue: Do I want to lie, or risk being doxxed and fired?
“Um, Truuuundecided. I just can’t decide at this moment.”
Yup. I’m undecided until the voting booth. And I don’t talk about my vote.
And no exit polls for me either.