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…is President Trump doing better in the polls in many states than the more traditional establishment Republicans?
Looking at RealClearPolitics:
North Carolina: Trump is behind by 1 point while the Republican senate candidate is behind by 6 points and the Republican gubernatorial candidate is behind by 8.4 points.
South Carolina: Trump is ahead by 7 points (from an average of the last three polls) while the Republican senate candidate is ahead by a mere 0.33 points (from an average of the last three polls).
Montana: Trump is ahead by 9 points (from an average of the last three polls) while the Republican senate candidate is ahead by a mere 1.6-1.7 points (from an average of the last three polls) and the Republican gubernatorial candidate is ahead by 6.3 points (from an average of the last three polls).
Arizona: Trump is behind by 3.4 points while the Republican senate candidate is behind by 5.2 points and has recently been 17, 13, 12, or 13 points behind while Trump’s worst poll was 10 points behind.
Iowa: Trump has been behind only once in the last 12 polls in Iowa while the Republican senate candidate has been behind in the last two available polls.
Kentucky: Trump is ahead by 15 points while the Republican senate candidate is ahead by 8.5 points, looking at the few available polls for this state.
Kansas: Trump is ahead by 20 points from the only one available poll while the Republican senate candidate is ahead by only 8 points from the one available poll.
Alabama: Trump is ahead by 9.5 points, the average of only two known polls, while the Republican senate candidate is ahead by 2 points from the only one available poll.
Ohio: Trump is behind by 3.3 points while the 2018 Republican senate candidate lost by 6.4 points while the 2018 gubernatorial candidate won by 4.3 points — after being down an average of 4.67 points in the last three polls for a swing of almost 9 points! In 2016, Trump won Ohio by 8.1 points even though polls showed him ahead by only 3.5 points.
Virginia: Trump is behind by 11 points while the Republican senate candidate is behind by 17 points. It seems that Northern Virginia is the headquarters for the Establishment Republicans, but even they prefer Trump to other Republican candidates. I seem to remember Bill Kristol and his wife supporting Ralph Northam over establishment Republican Ed Gillespie in 2017 which was the first indication to me that some in the Republican Establishment had gone completely insane with the Trump hatred, wishing to attack even Republicans not running for federal offices.
Nevada: Trump might be more popular than other Republicans in Nevada, but this is difficult to tell. Nevada is the one state where polls often seem to favor Republicans only for those candidates to lose when the votes are finally counted as Sharron Angle led in the last eight polls only to lose to Harry Reid by 5.6 points when the votes were finally counted, and the Republican incumbent senate candidate lost here in 2018 by 5 points even though polling showed the race exactly tied. In 2016, Trump lost here by less than half that gap, 2.42%, while the establishment’s favored anti-Trump Republican candidate, a brigadier general doctor veteran congressman, lost by about the same amount. I only trust Nevada’s votes when the Republican actually wins. Either the polling model is way off for Nevada, the state is corrupt, or both.
Michigan: Trump was doing better than the Republican senate candidate for most of the year, but that gap appears to have vanished or even slightly reversed. These two races could be like the Trump and Toomey races in Pennsylvania four years ago. Both Trump and Pat Toomey barely won in 2016, but one gets the feeling that it was with slightly different rural/blue-collar and suburban/pro-Chamber of Commerce voters.
Florida: In 2018, the polls for the senate and governor races were off by 2.8 and 4 points respectively. Trump is only behind by 1.3 points. Even that seems to indicate that Trump might be slightly more popular than other Republicans in Florida. Remember how favorite son Rubio only won one county of 67 counties on Florida against Trump during the 2016 presidential primary? The two problems here seems to be that the demographics of Florida are always constantly changing. Perhaps some angry Puerto Rican voters will vote against Trump? I think Florida is also allowing felons to vote for the first time this year also.
Washington: Trump is supposedly doing better than the Republican
senate governor candidate in this state even though Trump is about 30 points behind here, so I can’t imagine what’s going on with that senate race there. I think Washington last voted for a Republican governor when Jimmy Carter was president. Hmm, I probably shouldn’t even mention this one and let the former Republic of CHAZ/CHOP lie… (The Commentary podcast states that CHAZ/CHOP are reconstituting.)
Illinois: This state has the same sort of situation as Washington, but there appears to be no polling for the entire state. Perhaps the police unions in lockdown-Illinois can get Trump to win 40% of the vote, but even that seems like a stretch. Trump arguably did something like 0.20 points worse (55.83%-37.76% to 57.60%-40.73%) than Romney in Illinois, but Romney lost about twice as many counties with Trump receiving 10,000 more votes than Romney.
Yeah, Trump is doing worse in Texas than mild-mannered Senate John Cornyn, but it’s pretty much all over if Trump loses Texas anyway. Annoyingly, Ted Cruz had some trouble with Texas two years ago also. Trump might also be slightly less popular than other Republicans in Georgia, but this seems difficult to determine as the Georgia Republican governor only won with 50.2% of the vote in 2018. Trump is also doing worse than the RINO Northern New England Republican governors in New Hampshire and Vermont and worse than Susan Collins in Maine. True Trump hatred seems to be a very northern, suburban, and college-educated woman phenomenon. Where I live all the female candidates complete to be more pro-life and more pro-Second Amendment than each other, but I get the feeling that it doesn’t work that way in the rest of the country.
As I remember, the only five states where Donald Trump did significantly worse than Mitt Romney were the three largest Mexican border states (California, Texas, and Arizona) and the two states where Romney has won a statewide election (Massachusetts and Utah). However, Romney has also claimed Michigan and New Hampshire as home states; Romney did 9.73 points worse than Trump in Michigan and 9.27 points worse than Trump in New Hampshire. Romney won a higher percentage in Georgia but fewer actual votes (2,078,688 vs. 2,089,104) with Clinton doing worse than Obama did in Georgia in 2012.
If you search the news for people endorsing President Trump, you find absolutely nothing as the Establishment hates President Trump. However, you do get a few headlines like this from the people who are actually receiving gunfire in this current war:
- New York State Troopers Union Boss endorses Trump
- Chicago Police Union Endorses President Trump
- Pennsylvania State Police Endorse President Trump
- New Jersey’s Largest Police Union endorses Trump
- Police Officers Association of Michigan endorses Trump’s re-election
- Milwaukee Police Association endorses President Trump
- Kenosha County Sheriff endorses Trump
- Suffolk County Police Benevolent Association endorse President Trump
This one is also amusing — Obama’s (Adopted Native American) Tribe Endorses Trump with Powerful Message — “The Crow Tribe is a coal tribe. The Crow Tribe is an energy tribe.”
Yeah, the Republican Establishment certainly won’t miss Trump when he is gone, but they will miss his voters.Published in