Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Dear Never Trumpers: If Trump Is So Unpopular Then Why…

 

…is President Trump doing better in the polls in many states than the more traditional establishment Republicans?

Looking at RealClearPolitics:

North Carolina: Trump is behind by 1 point while the Republican senate candidate is behind by 6 points and the Republican gubernatorial candidate is behind by 8.4 points.

South Carolina: Trump is ahead by 7 points (from an average of the last three polls) while the Republican senate candidate is ahead by a mere 0.33 points (from an average of the last three polls).

Montana: Trump is ahead by 9 points (from an average of the last three polls) while the Republican senate candidate is ahead by a mere 1.6-1.7 points (from an average of the last three polls) and the Republican gubernatorial candidate is ahead by 6.3 points (from an average of the last three polls).

Arizona: Trump is behind by 3.4 points while the Republican senate candidate is behind by 5.2 points and has recently been 17, 13, 12, or 13 points behind while Trump’s worst poll was 10 points behind.

Iowa: Trump has been behind only once in the last 12 polls in Iowa while the Republican senate candidate has been behind in the last two available polls.

Kentucky: Trump is ahead by 15 points while the Republican senate candidate is ahead by 8.5 points, looking at the few available polls for this state.

Kansas: Trump is ahead by 20 points from the only one available poll while the Republican senate candidate is ahead by only 8 points from the one available poll.

Alabama: Trump is ahead by 9.5 points, the average of only two known polls, while the Republican senate candidate is ahead by 2 points from the only one available poll.

Ohio: Trump is behind by 3.3 points while the 2018 Republican senate candidate lost by 6.4 points while the 2018 gubernatorial candidate won by 4.3 points — after being down an average of 4.67 points in the last three polls for a swing of almost 9 points! In 2016, Trump won Ohio by 8.1 points even though polls showed him ahead by only 3.5 points.

Virginia: Trump is behind by 11 points while the Republican senate candidate is behind by 17 points. It seems that Northern Virginia is the headquarters for the Establishment Republicans, but even they prefer Trump to other Republican candidates. I seem to remember Bill Kristol and his wife supporting Ralph Northam over establishment Republican Ed Gillespie in 2017 which was the first indication to me that some in the Republican Establishment had gone completely insane with the Trump hatred, wishing to attack even Republicans not running for federal offices.

Nevada: Trump might be more popular than other Republicans in Nevada, but this is difficult to tell. Nevada is the one state where polls often seem to favor Republicans only for those candidates to lose when the votes are finally counted as Sharron Angle led in the last eight polls only to lose to Harry Reid by 5.6 points when the votes were finally counted, and the Republican incumbent senate candidate lost here in 2018 by 5 points even though polling showed the race exactly tied. In 2016, Trump lost here by less than half that gap, 2.42%, while the establishment’s favored anti-Trump Republican candidate, a brigadier general doctor veteran congressman, lost by about the same amount. I only trust Nevada’s votes when the Republican actually wins. Either the polling model is way off for Nevada, the state is corrupt, or both.

Michigan: Trump was doing better than the Republican senate candidate for most of the year, but that gap appears to have vanished or even slightly reversed. These two races could be like the Trump and Toomey races in Pennsylvania four years ago. Both Trump and Pat Toomey barely won in 2016, but one gets the feeling that it was with slightly different rural/blue-collar and suburban/pro-Chamber of Commerce voters.

Florida: In 2018, the polls for the senate and governor races were off by 2.8 and 4 points respectively. Trump is only behind by 1.3 points. Even that seems to indicate that Trump might be slightly more popular than other Republicans in Florida. Remember how favorite son Rubio only won one county of 67 counties on Florida against Trump during the 2016 presidential primary? The two problems here seems to be that the demographics of Florida are always constantly changing. Perhaps some angry Puerto Rican voters will vote against Trump? I think Florida is also allowing felons to vote for the first time this year also.

Washington: Trump is supposedly doing better than the Republican senate governor candidate in this state even though Trump is about 30 points behind here, so I can’t imagine what’s going on with that senate race there. I think Washington last voted for a Republican governor when Jimmy Carter was president. Hmm, I probably shouldn’t even mention this one and let the former Republic of CHAZ/CHOP lie…  (The Commentary podcast states that CHAZ/CHOP are reconstituting.)

Illinois: This state has the same sort of situation as Washington, but there appears to be no polling for the entire state. Perhaps the police unions in lockdown-Illinois can get Trump to win 40% of the vote, but even that seems like a stretch. Trump arguably did something like 0.20 points worse (55.83%-37.76% to 57.60%-40.73%) than Romney in Illinois, but Romney lost about twice as many counties with Trump receiving 10,000 more votes than Romney.

Yeah, Trump is doing worse in Texas than mild-mannered Senate John Cornyn, but it’s pretty much all over if Trump loses Texas anyway. Annoyingly, Ted Cruz had some trouble with Texas two years ago also. Trump might also be slightly less popular than other Republicans in Georgia, but this seems difficult to determine as the Georgia Republican governor only won with 50.2% of the vote in 2018. Trump is also doing worse than the RINO Northern New England Republican governors in New Hampshire and Vermont and worse than Susan Collins in Maine. True Trump hatred seems to be a very northern, suburban, and college-educated woman phenomenon. Where I live all the female candidates complete to be more pro-life and more pro-Second Amendment than each other, but I get the feeling that it doesn’t work that way in the rest of the country.

As I remember, the only five states where Donald Trump did significantly worse than Mitt Romney were the three largest Mexican border states (California, Texas, and Arizona) and the two states where Romney has won a statewide election (Massachusetts and Utah). However, Romney has also claimed Michigan and New Hampshire as home states; Romney did 9.73 points worse than Trump in Michigan and 9.27 points worse than Trump in New Hampshire. Romney won a higher percentage in Georgia but fewer actual votes (2,078,688 vs. 2,089,104) with Clinton doing worse than Obama did in Georgia in 2012.

If you search the news for people endorsing President Trump, you find absolutely nothing as the Establishment hates President Trump. However, you do get a few headlines like this from the people who are actually receiving gunfire in this current war:

  • New York State Troopers Union Boss endorses Trump
  • Chicago Police Union Endorses President Trump
  • Pennsylvania State Police Endorse President Trump
  • New Jersey’s Largest Police Union endorses Trump
  • Police Officers Association of Michigan endorses Trump’s re-election
  • Milwaukee Police Association endorses President Trump
  • Kenosha County Sheriff endorses Trump
  • Suffolk County Police Benevolent Association endorse President Trump

This one is also amusing — Obama’s (Adopted Native American) Tribe Endorses Trump with Powerful Message — “The Crow Tribe is a coal tribe. The Crow Tribe is an energy tribe.”

Yeah, the Republican Establishment certainly won’t miss Trump when he is gone, but they will miss his voters.

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  1. The Cynthonian Member

    Great data and analysis. I have to correct you re Washington state, though. There is no senatorial race here this year. Perhaps you meant the gubernatorial race?

    • #1
    • September 27, 2020, at 8:21 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  2. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin

    The Cynthonian (View Comment):

    Great data and analysis. I have to correct you re Washington state, though. There is no senatorial race here this year. Perhaps you meant the gubernatorial race?

    Yeah, oops. So few states have governor’s races during presidential election years that I got confused.

    • #2
    • September 27, 2020, at 8:58 PM PDT
    • 1 like
    • This comment has been edited.
  3. RushBabe49 Thatcher

    Our Dictator here in WA is afraid to be in the same room with his challenger for a debate. What a total wimp!

    • #3
    • September 27, 2020, at 9:52 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  4. Hartmann von Aue Member

    Thanks!

    • #4
    • September 27, 2020, at 11:15 PM PDT
    • Like
  5. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):

    Our Dictator here in WA is afraid to be in the same room with his challenger for a debate. What a total wimp!

    After CHAZ/CHOP what is going to take for a Republican to have a close election in Washington state? It is difficult to imagine a Republican winning a statewide election there. 

    A lot of the anti-Republican states and trending anti-Republican states in the West and Northern New England have been becoming quite secular and non-Christian over recent years or even decades. Virginia, New Mexico, and Arizona appear to be a few trending Democrat-leaning states that are still somewhat religious, but I think that may be partially due to immigration statistics.

    • #5
    • September 28, 2020, at 12:30 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  6. Muleskinner, Weasel Wrangler Member

    I’d suspect a lot of Democrat Trump supporters, leavened with believers in the Uni-party (deplorables) who didn’t believe their vote mattered before 2016, would make polls look like that.

    • #6
    • September 28, 2020, at 4:32 AM PDT
    • Like
  7. thelonious Member

    So polls are now valid since Trump is doing better in them?

    • #7
    • September 28, 2020, at 5:20 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  8. EDISONPARKS Member
    EDISONPARKSJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    thelonious (View Comment):

    So polls are now valid since Trump is doing better in them?

    I could obviously be dead wrong, but in the current cultural climate what possible benefit is there to being honest if you support Trump.

    It’s far easier to decline to give your opinion than to have your car keyed or your Trump sign thrown on your roof.

    Which is to say, I don’t believe the polls are getting peoples honest opinions on their Trump support, and when the polls start showing the (D) doing poorly then it’s even more ominous for the (D)’s chances.

    • #8
    • September 28, 2020, at 6:55 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  9. RushBabe49 Thatcher

    Washington State is essentially run by Seattle-that’s where most of the population is. They are incorrigible, and will never support any candidate who is not far-left. We conservatives know that our votes will simply never count for anything. The Republican party is less than useless, and every election has one or more positions all down the ballot with no Republican running at all.

    • #9
    • September 28, 2020, at 8:37 AM PDT
    • Like
  10. The Cynthonian Member

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):

    Washington State is essentially run by Seattle-that’s where most of the population is. They are incorrigible, and will never support any candidate who is not far-left. We conservatives know that our votes will simply never count for anything. The Republican party is less than useless, and every election has one or more positions all down the ballot with no Republican running at all.

    RB, please note that part of the problem there is the horrible Top Two primary system, which I despise. It actually magnifies the power of extremes, and enables electoral mischief. A good example is my state Senate district, where a “moderate” (by current standards) incumbent Democrat is being challenged by a far left never–elected-to-anything candidate, who is being funded and promoted by the unions. The incumbent has irritated the unions and the governor by refusing to vote for tax increases. He is actually representing the views of his district in this regard. The Seattle Times, in a rare flash of good sense, actually wrote an editorial endorsing the incumbent and explaining the background of the challenge: https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/editorials/the-times-recommends-mark-mullet-for-state-senate-5th-legislative-district/.

    If a strong Republican had also run, there is a good possibility that the challenger wouldn’t have made it to the general election. But the few in our area looked at the incumbent’s strength and backed away. That created the opening for this flavor of meddling. Gov. Dimslee actually endorsed the challenger! (Doing the bidding of his union masters, no doubt.)

    I believe only CA and WA have implemented the Top Two primary. Are there other states that have done this too? If it’s proposed in your state, I strongly recommend voting against it.

    • #10
    • September 28, 2020, at 8:56 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  11. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin

    The Cynthonian (View Comment):

    I believe only CA and WA have implemented the Top Two primary. Are there other states that have done this too? If it’s proposed in your state, I strongly recommend voting against it.

    I think Louisiana essentially has the same system with a second election not needed, if a candidate wins a majority of the vote in the so-called primary.

    I think this is essentially how David Duke become the Republican nominee for governor in 1991.

    During the previous presidential election in 1988, David Duke had been a Democrat and had won the little-known New Hampshire vice presidential primary. Michael Dukakis won the presidential primary in New Hampshire and the nomination that year, but for some reason weird he chose Lloyd Bentsen instead of Duke.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election

    On the other hand this system allows a politicians in very liberal or very conservative districts to receive somewhat viable challengers.

    • #11
    • September 28, 2020, at 9:59 AM PDT
    • Like
  12. The Cynthonian Member

    The Cloaked Gaijin (View Comment):

    The Cynthonian (View Comment):

    I believe only CA and WA have implemented the Top Two primary. Are there other states that have done this too? If it’s proposed in your state, I strongly recommend voting against it.

    I think Louisiana essentially has the same system with a second election not needed, if a candidate wins a majority of the vote in the so-called primary.

    I think this is essentially how David Duke become the Republican nominee for governor in 1991.

    During the previous presidential election in 1988, David Duke had been a Democrat and had won the little-known New Hampshire vice presidential primary. Michael Dukakis won the presidential primary in New Hampshire and the nomination that year, but for some reason weird he chose Lloyd Bentsen instead of Duke.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election

    On the other hand this system allows a politicians in very liberal or very conservative districts to receive somewhat viable challengers.

    I don’t think the tradeoff (viable challengers in a lopsided district) is worth the potential for mischief elsewhere.

    • #12
    • September 28, 2020, at 10:20 AM PDT
    • Like
  13. Concretevol Thatcher

    I’m not who you are asking the question in the post title but I think I know why he is and should be doing better with Republicans. Speaking for myself, the unknowns of a Trump administration was more troubling than his abrasive personality. Would it be staffed by unserious attention seekers and tv personalities? Would he just “wing it” with foreign and domestic policy? Would he immediately sell the farm to the Dems in order to “make a deal”? Well….we have 4 years to look at. Sure there are things to criticize about Trump the man and in some cases about the Trump administration but for the most part it has been a fairly straightforward Republican administration that if anything has leaned more conservative than a Republican administration typically would. A lot of traditional Republican voters were very nervous about a potential Trump administration and I just don’t think they are now.

    • #13
    • September 28, 2020, at 11:13 AM PDT
    • 10 likes
  14. Stina Member

    Texas and Arizona are two states that got run over by blue staters. Texas’ reputation was just begging for blue state challengers to change it. There’s been a campaign against Texas in using migration to turn it blue for a while now. Looks like they figured out settling NY and CA wasn’t going to win them the presidency.

    Florida has been pretty purple for a long time for the same reason, but our migrants are more predictable in their settling behavior – South or Central Florida. North Florida is still The South, and Northerners don’t like it much.

    I would be very interested to know the migratory patterns from Covid and if NY and CA have a potential to be takeable in the near future.

     

    • #14
    • September 28, 2020, at 11:31 AM PDT
    • Like
  15. Franco Member
    FrancoJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Concretevol (View Comment):

    I’m not who you are asking the question in the post title but I think I know why he is and should be doing better with Republicans. Speaking for myself, the unknowns of a Trump administration was more troubling than his abrasive personality. Would it be staffed by unserious attention seekers and tv personalities? Would he just “wing it” with foreign and domestic policy? Would he immediately sell the farm to the Dems in order to “make a deal”? Well….we have 4 years to look at. Sure there are things to criticize about Trump the man and in some cases about the Trump administration but for the most part it has been a fairly straightforward Republican administration that if anything has leaned more conservative than a Republican administration typically would. A lot of traditional Republican voters were very nervous about a potential Trump administration and I just don’t think they are now.

    Those were all valid concerns. I was much more confident he’d be pretty conservative ( also confident that the Democrats would push him into being more conservative) but never would have predicted this level of pure in-your-face political rampage.

    I respond to this comment because it is so interesting that Trump by being “Republican” or more accurately promoting and enacting all the things Republicans claimed in words and rhetoric, he exposed the Potemkin Village they created. 
    These guys and gals started to get “tired of winning” in the first months. By now they are on board with Biden there’s so much winning.

    These Nevers are very similar to the Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton school of provocateurs. Imagine what would happen had Obama actually started making real progress in race relations. Those guys would have hated him! Too much winning!

    • #15
    • September 28, 2020, at 2:18 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  16. Franco Member
    FrancoJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I always knew there was an Establishment and a sort of Uniparty, but now that I’ve seen it naked I can never, ever look at it the same way.

    My biggest question is, do they have any understanding of how wretched the look to tens of millions of people who used to tolerate them, read their opinions and even vote for them on occasion?
    We know that’s not gonna happen again.

    Remember back in the early days of Ricochet when there were a constant debates about whether there even was an Establishment? We were charged with defining it by those who claimed it was a paranoid fantasy.
    Fish insisting proof for the existence of water.

    • #16
    • September 28, 2020, at 2:32 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  17. Vince Guerra Member

    thelonious (View Comment):

    So polls are now valid since Trump is doing better in them?

    The Never Trumpers are fixated on the polls and tend to ignore all of the other indicators, so the piece is using the data they point to as the basis of its argument.

    • #17
    • September 28, 2020, at 3:03 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  18. Franco Member
    FrancoJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Vince Guerra (View Comment):

    thelonious (View Comment):

    So polls are now valid since Trump is doing better in them?

    The Never Trumpers are fixated on the polls and tend to ignore all of the other indicators, so the piece is using the data they point to as the basis of its argument.

    As though Never Trumpers were ever very close to being politically astute.

    These guys have so many failures it looks like a plan.

    It actually now ….looks like a plan. Any forensic analysis will point in that direction. Occam’s Razor says it’s incompetence, greed and narcissistic validation. Ultimately it doesn’t matter. Whether they are moles, traitors, Philby-esque ideologues, entitled idiots or preening whores, they have no influence and are living temporarily by the grace of leftists and corporatist convenience. 

    The many things they have gotten so wrong was already substantial and then they got Trump wrong. And Hillary. All of them really. Their understanding of Republican-leaning voters was absolutely wrong in every way. They became hyper-insulated in the skinny branches of policy missing the forest and jungle entirely.

    • #18
    • September 28, 2020, at 4:50 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  19. Z in MT Member

    I don’t know of anyone that voted for Trump in 2016 that is not going to vote for him this year. I also know of many people, like myself ( SMOD voter) that will vote for Trump this year. The polls showing Biden comfortably ahead seem suspect to me. I think many Trump voters either refuse to respond to the polls or are actively sabotaging the polls by giving false answers. If the polls turn out to be accurate it proves how horrible Clinton actually was.

    • #19
    • September 29, 2020, at 6:12 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  20. thelonious Member

    Vince Guerra (View Comment):

    thelonious (View Comment):

    So polls are now valid since Trump is doing better in them?

    The Never Trumpers are fixated on the polls and tend to ignore all of the other indicators, so the piece is using the data they point to as the basis of its argument.

    Many of the data points are the ones Trump supporters have always claimed are invalid. You can’t have both ways. 

    • #20
    • September 29, 2020, at 7:07 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  21. Randy Weivoda Moderator
    Randy WeivodaJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Concretevol (View Comment):

    I’m not who you are asking the question in the post title but I think I know why he is and should be doing better with Republicans. Speaking for myself, the unknowns of a Trump administration was more troubling than his abrasive personality. Would it be staffed by unserious attention seekers and tv personalities? Would he just “wing it” with foreign and domestic policy? Would he immediately sell the farm to the Dems in order to “make a deal”? Well….we have 4 years to look at. Sure there are things to criticize about Trump the man and in some cases about the Trump administration but for the most part it has been a fairly straightforward Republican administration that if anything has leaned more conservative than a Republican administration typically would. A lot of traditional Republican voters were very nervous about a potential Trump administration and I just don’t think they are now.

    Yes. I think Donald Trump will get more votes this time from conservatives who were skeptical of Trump’s agenda in 2016. On the other hand — Biden will probably get votes that Hillary Clinton did not get, from people who often vote Democratic but just couldn’t stomach Hillary Clinton. You can say a lot of things about Joe Biden, but he’s never been as widely hated as Hillary. And a lot of voters are fickle and make up their minds based on what they see on the news in the last week because they can’t remember any news from further back, so it makes trying to predict the outcome pretty chancy.

    • #21
    • September 30, 2020, at 7:29 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  22. Stina Member

    thelonious (View Comment):

    Vince Guerra (View Comment):

    thelonious (View Comment):

    So polls are now valid since Trump is doing better in them?

    The Never Trumpers are fixated on the polls and tend to ignore all of the other indicators, so the piece is using the data they point to as the basis of its argument.

    Many of the data points are the ones Trump supporters have always claimed are invalid. You can’t have both ways.

    It’s called rhetoric. Its a means of persuasion. Trying to persuade people who don’t agree with you, you have to meet them where they are.

    That’s why Republicans suck. They don’t know how to do persuasion.

    • #22
    • September 30, 2020, at 7:32 AM PDT
    • Like