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Jimmy Lai, the recently arrested publisher dissident in Hong Kong, said in an Uncommon Knowledge episode this past spring that Xi is far weaker, internally, than he appears, and his actions need to be understood as those of a weak leader trying to project strength. Xi’s overreach has soured China’s economy and alienated every single neighbor except, perhaps, Russia (at least not openly), and his bluster may plunge China into a war that would not only be unnecessary over time, but unprofitable to boot, all to satisfy his personal ego. Xi may well be on shaky ground, and if the elders decide he’s a risk….?
Xi has definitely besmirched the brand, what with his lung AIDs and Hong Kong heavy-handedness and hoodwinked Uyghur prisoners and all.
I think Jimmy Lai is right. The problem with being CEO of PRC Inc. is that you end up taking a lot of heat from the Board.
Very informative post.
He recently got into a diplomatic snipping war with Russia too, over Vladivostok. I think he feels entitled to a certain part of their Eastern territory, which only became incorporated in the last 200 or so years, and would try to reclaim it by force if he and Russia were in the right relative positions (as it stands he knows that Russia is still too militarily strong, and Putin would use such an action as a rallying cry to national unity).
Interesting post! The Beidaihe meetings and Xi being in opposition to older leaders made me think of the infamous Lushan Conference of 1959, which effectively ruined General Peng Dehuai’s career and life (especially since Peng was a figure in long standing in the Communist camp after he left the warlord armies).
Provided Xi’s regime does outlast most of these elderly leaders (although it seems like Jiang Zemin may live forever), I wonder who will be left to offer even mild criticism? To be fair though, all of those former leaders aren’t exactly angels, and while they may disagree with him on economic policy in some ways, they have no warm and fuzzy feelings for human rights or the West. It does not surprise me that he shunned others of the princeling class, he seems like exactly the type to want subordinates that are personally loyal to, and solely dependent on, him.
I really enjoy reading the stuff that gets leaked by Chinese netizens, from apps like Weibo, before it comes under the hand of Chinese censors. This regime has produced some great writers and satirists, like Ma Jian and Liu Xiaobo, I wonder if there will ever be a direct Chinese equivalent to Solzhenitsyn.
Starting to remind me of Krelminology.
Yes. We definitely need a scorecard.
Slightly off topic, but The Communist Party of the Soviet Union by Leonard Shapiro (1960) is one of the best books of Kremlinology (and Russian history) ever. I don’t think anything to rival it has yet been written about the CCP, it will probably take its fall to have a complete enough archive and interview base in order to do so.
If the Democrats win and we continue to weaken our economy, military and most of all focus, it’ll just be a matter of time. Even with a Trump win it’s not clear where this goes. They won’t change, but they’ll gradually rot and that takes time. If we rot more rapidly it’s over.
I have been finding “post Beidaihe” stories. Everyone thinks there was one and that the tea leaves point to fractures in the leadership but the CCP is the very definition of opaque and nobody knows anything for sure. Sinology is not for people who need certainty in all things.