Not So Fast, Or, Aimlessly Wandering the Halls of the Hoover Institution, Part One

 

Between the holidays, holing up in the library on a writing project, and finding myself bedridden for a few days with the flu or a sinus infection or whatever it was, it had gotten to be awhile since I’d actually turned up at what remains my principal place of work.  So I just wandered the halls, saying hello to colleagues and engaging in conversations at enjoyable random.

Speaking to a particularly esteemed political scientist, I got something of a start.  I’d expected him to say that Romney as good as had the nomination in the bag.  Not at all.  ”Ignore the press,” he said. Even after the Florida primary, only about 15 percent of the GOP delegates will have been chosen–and that 15 percent will have been divided among the candidates, with Romney having failed to win all that many more than either Gingrich, Santorum or Paul.

“After Florida, what happens?  Not much.  Just look at the schedule.”  

A couple of caucuses will take place in mid-February, but not until the last day of the month will important primaries take place.

“That gives Gingrich, Santorum and Paul almost the entire month of February to regroup and raise money.  Maybe they won’t.  Maybe they’ll drop out and get behind Romney.  But it’s up to them.  If they want to keep this thing going, they can–maybe even all the way to the convention.”

There are 8 comments.

  1. liberal jim Inactive

    I think last night demonstrated that the fewer candidates the more of a debate it becomes and the more of a debate it becomes the more Newt makes Romney look like not the best choice. Expect Romney to start to float trial balloons to see if he can duck out of debates and not lose too much support. I cannot understand why the complaints of too many debates,. They would be better if there was fewer journalists involved, but it is the only time you get to see at least some semi non-scripted moments.

    • #1
    • January 18, 2012, at 1:03 AM PDT
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  2. Noesis Noeseos Inactive
    David Williamson: Must be wonderful to work in a place that is not full of liberals!

    Yes, Mr Gingrich seems to be staging another comeback, and I recall hearing that Mr Santorum’s strategy is to keep going all the way to the convention – it might just work. · Jan 17 at 11:28am

    I find myself wishing that we who want to send Obama back to the wards of Chicago could combine Romney’s appeal to independents with Perry’s commitment to the Tenth Amendment, the economic aspects (both with respect to the management of money and the the management of ὅ ὄικος) of Paul’s libertarianism, and Newt’s positively grand refutation of all bromides progressive. What a candidate that would be!

    Maybe Romney will study up on what makes people clap when his rivals speak.

    • #2
    • January 18, 2012, at 2:05 AM PDT
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  3. Kofola Inactive

    This is just wishful thinking. Numerically it may be true, but nothing sets things in stone like continued winning. It will simply be too difficult for the others to shake the stink of losing. Just look at Perry. By record alone he should be competing at the top, but he got the loser stink due to his early gaffes. Now people refuse to give him a second look even though he’s shown clear improvement in both his knowledge and presentation (Heck, even former Perry supporter turned Perry mocker Troy Senik found him acceptable last night).

    Unless Romney loses SC and then Florida, the nomination’s his.

    • #3
    • January 18, 2012, at 3:58 AM PDT
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  4. Translucent Inactive

    Well there is another silver lining in this. If it does go on and Romney seems like he is the frontrunner until then end and loses. It may catch the Obama campaign off guard. It will give them the least time to come up with a plan for the nominees. The republican nominee will have received much more press time than him(both because of the republican primaries and because the media that is favored in Obama’s direction won’t really report the bad news that can linked to him.). More and More the candidates of the republican primary will become household names.

    At least those are some good points that I see.

    • #4
    • January 18, 2012, at 8:41 AM PDT
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  5. Diego Sun Devil Inactive

    I agree in some part, but its Romney’s to lose more than anything. Being the front runner, he’s going to garner the most attention and money. I expect Perry to drop out after Florida if not South Carolina due to the lack of any reasonable path to victory and Santorum will probably drop out around the same time due to lack of funds.

    Romney’s support seems to be galvanizing and Gingrich seems to be doing his best to shoot himself (and the party) in the foot every chance he gets outside of the debates. Ron Paul is the only serious contender left in my book and it’s nice to see him polling even with Obama in a theoretical heads up match.

    • #5
    • January 18, 2012, at 12:26 PM PDT
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  6. David Williamson Inactive

    Must be wonderful to work in a place that is not full of liberals!

    Yes, Mr Gingrich seems to be staging another comeback, and I recall hearing that Mr Santorum’s strategy is to keep going all the way to the convention – it might just work.

    • #6
    • January 18, 2012, at 12:28 PM PDT
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  7. The (apathetic) King Prawn Inactive

    If this was a NASCAR race the pundits would be calling it after the first 10 laps. Let’s run the whole thing I say.

    • #7
    • January 18, 2012, at 12:35 PM PDT
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  8. Guruforhire Member

    My own political prognastication is that Paul wins Virginia, so does Radtke win the senate seat. Why?

    After the primary ballot shenanigans, pretty much nobody except the committed to paul and or Romney are going to show up. Romney isnt going to draw huge crowds who will probably not be terribly motivated to get in line early in the morning, and Paul supporters are well militant everywhere. This is going to have down ticket consequences. I think the commited ABR folks will go to vote for the down ticket items and they arent going to vote for Romney, but Paul will pick up more votes as he seems to be picking up more of the non-romney votes than romney is as candidates leave. All this also leads me to believe that the tea party senate candidate beats out Allen.

    So there is good reason for Non-Romney’s to stay in the race because little things like what I describe above can keep Romney within losing range for the entire race.

    • #8
    • January 18, 2012, at 12:43 PM PDT
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