Between the holidays, holing up in the library on a writing project, and finding myself bedridden for a few days with the flu or a sinus infection or whatever it was, it had gotten to be awhile since I’d actually turned up at what remains my principal place of work. So I just wandered the halls, saying hello to colleagues and engaging in conversations at enjoyable random.
Speaking to a particularly esteemed political scientist, I got something of a start. I’d expected him to say that Romney as good as had the nomination in the bag. Not at all. ”Ignore the press,” he said. Even after the Florida primary, only about 15 percent of the GOP delegates will have been chosen–and that 15 percent will have been divided among the candidates, with Romney having failed to win all that many more than either Gingrich, Santorum or Paul.
“After Florida, what happens? Not much. Just look at the schedule.”
A couple of caucuses will take place in mid-February, but not until the last day of the month will important primaries take place.
“That gives Gingrich, Santorum and Paul almost the entire month of February to regroup and raise money. Maybe they won’t. Maybe they’ll drop out and get behind Romney. But it’s up to them. If they want to keep this thing going, they can–maybe even all the way to the convention.”