Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Republicans Out Registering Democrats in Pennsylvania – By a Lot

 

Well, this is a surprise. Here in Pennsylvania, Republicans are out-registering Democrats. By a lot. At least recently.

Since the 2016 primary elections, Republicans have added at net 165,000 voters their rolls, while Democrats have added 30,000. Democrats still have an 800,000-voter lead over Republicans in the state, but that number is down from 936,000 just four years ago when President Trump won the state by roughly 44,000 votes or less than 1%.

This is quite a switch from recent years when the GOP was being consistently out registered by Democrats (and even somewhat more so by people moving their registrations to Independent, or non-affiliated). While larger counties (like mine, Delaware County in suburban Philly) continue to veer left, PA’s voluminous smaller counties are becoming increasingly Republican.

No disrespect to the largely dysfunctional Pennsylvania Republican Party, but I suspect this trend may have a lot to do with the national GOP and Trump campaign’s highly impressive digital campaign, among other factors. Polls have consistently suggested much higher voter enthusiasm for Trump vs. Biden. Also, by at least one account, 3 million people nationally who likely would have voted for Trump didn’t bother to vote in 2016 (Democrats could likely make a similar claim, given the complete lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton), and those folks would clearly be a top priority for their campaign.

Funny how this somewhat counters the polling trends we’re being fed. It says more about reality on the ground than most public opinion polling. We’ll see.

Democrats still have a sizeable lead on registrations, but the gap is narrowing. I wonder if this trend is playing out in other states?

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  1. Front Seat Cat Member

    I didn’t know there were any Republicans in PA – where I grew up. I didn’t jump the Democratic wooden ship full of holes until 2000. I hope you are right!!

    • #1
    • August 1, 2020, at 6:01 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  2. Jules PA Member

    Praying. 

    • #2
    • August 1, 2020, at 6:13 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  3. Jon1979 Lincoln

    One of the things about the eight years of Obama was the phenomenon of the “Obama-only” voters, in that they turned out for him in 2008 and 2012, but didn’t for other Democratic candidates in the off-year elections.That led to the GOP landslides in 2010 and 2014, and after 2012, when Obama thought he could use his election win to force the Republicans to cave on the budget stalemate in the winter of 2013, he got crickets in response — he had a ton of people who were willing to re-elect him, but weren’t going to become the minions he wanted to martial against the House Republicans.

    It’s possible we could be seeing the same thing with Trump, in that there’s a certain mass of people who voted for him in 2016 and then politically went dormant in the midterm years, but are planning to show up again for the 2020 election and are starting to register. (It’s also possible that this is a below-the-radar way people angered by the Democrats’ actions, cancel culture and the recent riots are reacting. They’re keeping their mouths shut out of fear of retribution and/or possible loss of jobs and income, but plan to make their statement in private on Nov. 3. If that turns out to be the case, look for Dems and the media to make a big push to doxx voter registration lists based on part affiliation in 2024 and other future elections, as another way to try and keep the public cowed).

    • #3
    • August 1, 2020, at 6:17 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  4. Jules PA Member

    Every county with fewer than 100,000 voters has increased its number of registered Republicans, and all of them have more Republican than Democrat voters. 

    It is the contrast between the urban/suburban and rural. Is this dynamic reflected in both in PA counties and the nation at large?

    The article make a confusing connection of Allegheny County (near Pittsburgh) to Southeastern Pa. There is nothing eastern about Allegheny County. I’m guessing the urban trend follows in both Philly and Pittsburgh. 

    • #4
    • August 1, 2020, at 6:21 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  5. JoelB Member

    Combine the new registrations with the traditionalist Democrats already registered, and Pennsylvania could be very interesting on election day. 

    • #5
    • August 1, 2020, at 6:23 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  6. Jules PA Member

    I switched my PA registration to Republican from Independent in 2016 to stop Trump in the primary.

    I’m solidly voting for Trump in 2020. Because my disdain for the Biden scenario is even stronger than my disdain for Hillary. 

    NeverHillary. 

    NeverEverBiden.

    I have not answered my phone for a poll in at least 15 years. 

    • #6
    • August 1, 2020, at 6:25 AM PDT
    • 10 likes
  7. Mark Camp Member

    Front Seat Cat (View Comment):

    I didn’t know there were any Republicans in PA – where I grew up. I didn’t jump the Democratic wooden ship full of holes until 2000. I hope you are right!!

    When I grew up in PA as a Republican with Republican parents, one did not mention such matters in public. It simply wasn’t done.

    It was “don’t ask, don’t tell.”

    • #7
    • August 1, 2020, at 7:08 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  8. Stad Thatcher

    Any idea how many of these new Republicans are Dems who switched?

    • #8
    • August 1, 2020, at 7:14 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  9. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    This is the basic work that makes for election day success. It is in the blocking-and-tackling where close games are won and lost. Thanks for the update. 

    • #9
    • August 1, 2020, at 7:26 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  10. namlliT noD Member
    namlliT noD Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Scott Presler has been registering a lot of Trump supporters in Pennsylvania lately:

     

    • #10
    • August 1, 2020, at 7:48 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  11. namlliT noD Member
    namlliT noD Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    And…

    • #11
    • August 1, 2020, at 7:51 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  12. PHCheese Member

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Front Seat Cat (View Comment):

    I didn’t know there were any Republicans in PA – where I grew up. I didn’t jump the Democratic wooden ship full of holes until 2000. I hope you are right!!

    When I grew up in PA as a Republican with Republican parents, one did not mention such matters in public. It simply wasn’t done.

    It was “don’t ask, don’t tell.”

    When I lived there they raised the real estate assessment of Republicans stealthy. Voter registration is not private. That happened in Allegheny county. I actually proved it to a judge who immediately lowered my taxes and gave me a rebate for the previous 4 years. That judge is now the county DA. 

    • #12
    • August 1, 2020, at 7:56 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  13. JoelB Member

    PHCheese (View Comment):

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Front Seat Cat (View Comment):

    I didn’t know there were any Republicans in PA – where I grew up. I didn’t jump the Democratic wooden ship full of holes until 2000. I hope you are right!!

    When I grew up in PA as a Republican with Republican parents, one did not mention such matters in public. It simply wasn’t done.

    It was “don’t ask, don’t tell.”

    When I lived there they raised the real estate assessment of Republicans stealthy. Voter registration is not private. That happened in Allegheny county. I actually proved it to a judge who immediately lowered my taxes and gave me a rebate for the previous 4 years. That judge is now the county DA.

    So that’s why my real estate taxes are so high compared to my neighbors with nearly identical houses. Perhaps I should change my registration. Republicans don’t run for local offices around here half the time anyway and by the time the presidential primaries get to Pennsylvania, it doesn’t make a difference. I must admit the possibility of discrimination on property taxes based on party affiliation had never occurred to me. I hate real estate taxes more than ever now.

     

     

    • #13
    • August 1, 2020, at 8:51 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  14. namlliT noD Member
    namlliT noD Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    When I lived there they raised the real estate assessment of Republicans stealthy. Voter registration is not private. That happened in Allegheny county. I actually proved it to a judge who immediately lowered my taxes and gave me a rebate for the previous 4 years. That judge is now the county DA. 

    Wait… what? This is huge. 

    How extensive is the specific type of corruption?

    • #14
    • August 1, 2020, at 9:24 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  15. WillowSpring Member
    WillowSpring Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I am starting to be concerned that those who may be inclined to vote for Trump will instead vote democratic in the belief that a democratic win will put an end to all of the riots and civil disorder.

    • #15
    • August 1, 2020, at 9:45 AM PDT
    • Like
  16. Stina Member

    Jon1979 (View Comment):
    It’s possible we could be seeing the same thing with Trump, in that there’s a certain mass of people who voted for him in 2016 and then politically went dormant in the midterm years

    Are you sure they were dormant?

    As I remember, there was an enormous R party defection + failed promises among congress.

    How much of congressional loss was Trump’s coattails and how much was the fault of the specific congressmen?

    Trump’s coattails might be short, but I don’t think that election cycle is a good illustration of that. You didn’t have that dynamic going on with Dems in 2010 and 14.

    In the Obama administration, you had two things going on that don’t translate to long term gains:

    1) the national unity and pride in electing the first black president (Obama’s Peace Prize belongs to the American people – not him) that crossed party lines : that does not translate into congressional support.

    2) An unprecedented participation among black americans for the first black president that out-did all other elections. Typically, participation is very low among blacks, far under other demographic participation. I think those elections saw much larger turnout among blacks that, again, doesn’t translate to congressional support.

    3) Weak R presidential candidates that saw depressed voter turnout while not stymying congressional support.


    It is my opinion that policy support represents congressional turnout. Blacks largely supported Obama for reasons other than policy. Support for Democrat policy is as weak as Republican presidential candidates.

    The ’18 midterms saw huge defections of Republicans who did not support the president’s policies, which weakened the ability for us to make gains in the House. Perhaps this harmed voter turnout. The Senate, we gained. So it’s not like support for Trump was lacking among voters. We had the irritating problem of not having anyone to vote for and low morale after McCain bit the hand that fed him. Edited to add: we had what amounted to a third party in congress losing their positions.

    I find election analysis that ignores the unique challenges of elections to be faulty. The Democrats thought Hillary was a shoo-in because they overestimated the sheer number of Democrat participation for Obama. That was a ridiculous assumption to make, because O was unique from the last 40 years of elections.

    • #16
    • August 1, 2020, at 11:19 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  17. Stina Member

    Also another point on midterm voting habits –

    I think it is the general consensus of the average American voter to be reserved or apathetic or outright hostile to one party rule. In other words, I think that, except for very rare cases, election results maintain a 2 to 1 balance between president, senate, and house.

    • #17
    • August 1, 2020, at 11:45 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  18. Basil Fawlty Member
    Basil Fawlty Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Republicans Out Registering Democrats in Pennsylvania.

    Doesn’t surprise me.

    • #18
    • August 1, 2020, at 3:25 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  19. PHCheese Member

    namlliT noD (View Comment):

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    When I lived there they raised the real estate assessment of Republicans stealthy. Voter registration is not private. That happened in Allegheny county. I actually proved it to a judge who immediately lowered my taxes and gave me a rebate for the previous 4 years. That judge is now the county DA.

    Wait… what? This is huge.

    How extensive is the specific type of corruption?

    This has been going on a long time. The mayor of Boston in the forty’s and fifties named Curley took it to an art form. They teach it in some colleges. He probably stole it from some other Democrat. It now referred to as the Curley Effect.

    • #19
    • August 1, 2020, at 5:58 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  20. PHCheese Member

    JoelB (View Comment):

    PHCheese (View Comment):

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Front Seat Cat (View Comment):

    I didn’t know there were any Republicans in PA – where I grew up. I didn’t jump the Democratic wooden ship full of holes until 2000. I hope you are right!!

    When I grew up in PA as a Republican with Republican parents, one did not mention such matters in public. It simply wasn’t done.

    It was “don’t ask, don’t tell.”

    When I lived there they raised the real estate assessment of Republicans stealthy. Voter registration is not private. That happened in Allegheny county. I actually proved it to a judge who immediately lowered my taxes and gave me a rebate for the previous 4 years. That judge is now the county DA.

    So that’s why my real estate taxes are so high compared to my neighbors with nearly identical houses. Perhaps I should change my registration. Republicans don’t run for local offices around here half the time anyway and by the time the presidential primaries get to Pennsylvania, it doesn’t make a difference. I must admit the possibility of discrimination on property taxes based on party affiliation had never occurred to me. I hate real estate taxes more than ever now.

     

     

    If you appeal them to at least the second level you can probably get the same kind of deal as I did. You need plenty of documentation and Comparables on like property. Then when you find large discrepancies check the voter registration. They give in easily so as not to make headlines. I didn’t need to threaten them. It was like “ Let’s Make A Deal”

    • #20
    • August 1, 2020, at 6:06 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  21. jeannebodine, Verbose Bon Viva… Member

    Hello, fellow Delco resident, this good news indeed. Yes, the county has veered left. I think it’s the first time in 100(? ) years that our county hasn’t been run by the GOP (even though the Delco & PA GOP is worthless). The biggest surprise was the handpicked Soros DA. Even the Inky and the rest of the MSM admitted that Soros paid for the DA who is exactly like the rest of Soros DAs. I still can’t figure out why held be interested in our dinky little county.

    I think Governor Wolf’s actions since the start of virus makes him the best Trump campaign manager. He has been a mess – his confusing stages, his empty office, his picking favorites to be shutdown, his opacity about everything, his vindictiveness to counties that dared to question him, his, his arbitrary decisions and most of all, the debacle of the patients in nursing homes.

    Re: PA taxes on Republicans, our county has some of the highest in state and, as I said, it’s been Republican for 100 years. When you registered to vote in our county, the word used to be register GOP if you ever needed anything done. I don’t think there’s any question that Republicans didn’t get higher taxes in the Philly collar counties – Delaware (we just had a court-mandated real estate reassessment), Montgomery, Chester and Bucks. All these counties used to be mostly reliably GOP as their wealth increased until rich people went SJW with a vengeance. Now they’re all Blue. Let’s see what happens after all this unrest.

    I think one of Trump’s campaign slogans should be, “Jobs, not Mobs”.

    • #21
    • August 1, 2020, at 6:52 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  22. Weeping Member

    jeannebodine, Verbose Bon Viva… (View Comment):
    I think one of Trump’s campaign slogans should be, “Jobs, not Mobs”.

    • #22
    • August 1, 2020, at 7:14 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  23. namlliT noD Member
    namlliT noD Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    This has been going on a long time. The mayor of Boston in the forty’s and fifties named Curley took it to an art form. They teach it in some colleges. He probably stole it from some other Democrat. It now referred to as the Curley Effect.

    Not enough people are familiar with The Curley Effect. ‘Great topic for a post.

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    If you appeal them to at least the second level you can probably get the same kind of deal as I did. You need plenty of documentation and Comparables on like property. Then when you find large discrepancies check the voter registration. They give in easily so as not to make headlines. I didn’t need to threaten them. It was like “ Let’s Make A Deal”

    This could be an awesome business opportunity! Seriously. 

    Automate the documentation and comparables part, so that becomes easy. Charge a percentage of the reduction, so the potential customer has nothing to lose. Y’r effectively printing money.

    • #23
    • August 3, 2020, at 9:25 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  24. PHCheese Member

    namlliT noD (View Comment):

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    This has been going on a long time. The mayor of Boston in the forty’s and fifties named Curley took it to an art form. They teach it in some colleges. He probably stole it from some other Democrat. It now referred to as the Curley Effect.

    Not enough people are familiar with The Curley Effect. ‘Great topic for a post.

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    If you appeal them to at least the second level you can probably get the same kind of deal as I did. You need plenty of documentation and Comparables on like property. Then when you find large discrepancies check the voter registration. They give in easily so as not to make headlines. I didn’t need to threaten them. It was like “ Let’s Make A Deal”

    This could be an awesome business opportunity! Seriously.

    Automate the documentation and comparables part, so that becomes easy. Charge a percentage of the reduction, so the potential customer has nothing to lose. Y’r effectively printing money.

    The Comparables were the hard part for me because my home and properly were atypical. It’s much easier if you live in a development of like homes. Of course this all took place about 30 years ago. 

    • #24
    • August 3, 2020, at 12:26 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  25. namlliT noD Member
    namlliT noD Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    jeannebodine, Verbose Bon Viva… (View Comment):
    Hello, fellow Delco resident, this good news indeed.

    Heads up, @jeannebodine , Scott Presler is coming back.

    • #25
    • August 3, 2020, at 1:45 PM PDT
    • Like
    • This comment has been edited.
  26. Mark Camp Member

    jeannebodine, Verbose Bon Viva… (View Comment):

     

     

    I think one of Trump’s campaign slogans should be, “Jobs, not Mobs”.

    Better yet, “The only jobs the politicians can create are the kind you want less of: Government jobs.”

    • #26
    • August 3, 2020, at 3:36 PM PDT
    • Like
  27. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    Jon1979 (View Comment):

    One of the things about the eight years of Obama was the phenomenon of the “Obama-only” voters, in that they turned out for him in 2008 and 2012, but didn’t for other Democratic candidates in the off-year elections.That led to the GOP landslides in 2010 and 2014, and after 2012, when Obama thought he could use his election win to force the Republicans to cave on the budget stalemate in the winter of 2013, he got crickets in response — he had a ton of people who were willing to re-elect him, but weren’t going to become the minions he wanted to martial against the House Republicans.

    It’s possible we could be seeing the same thing with Trump, in that there’s a certain mass of people who voted for him in 2016 and then politically went dormant in the midterm years, but are planning to show up again for the 2020 election and are starting to register. (It’s also possible that this is a below-the-radar way people angered by the Democrats’ actions, cancel culture and the recent riots are reacting. They’re keeping their mouths shut out of fear of retribution and/or possible loss of jobs and income, but plan to make their statement in private on Nov. 3. If that turns out to be the case, look for Dems and the media to make a big push to doxx voter registration lists based on part affiliation in 2024 and other future elections, as another way to try and keep the public cowed).

    In California, 2018 had more ballot counting shenanigans than a typical year

     

    • #27
    • August 3, 2020, at 11:48 PM PDT
    • Like
  28. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    PHCheese (View Comment):

    JoelB (View Comment):

    PHCheese (View Comment):

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Front Seat Cat (View Comment):

    I didn’t know there were any Republicans in PA – where I grew up. I didn’t jump the Democratic wooden ship full of holes until 2000. I hope you are right!!

    When I grew up in PA as a Republican with Republican parents, one did not mention such matters in public. It simply wasn’t done.

    It was “don’t ask, don’t tell.”

    When I lived there they raised the real estate assessment of Republicans stealthy. Voter registration is not private. That happened in Allegheny county. I actually proved it to a judge who immediately lowered my taxes and gave me a rebate for the previous 4 years. That judge is now the county DA.

    So that’s why my real estate taxes are so high compared to my neighbors with nearly identical houses. Perhaps I should change my registration. Republicans don’t run for local offices around here half the time anyway and by the time the presidential primaries get to Pennsylvania, it doesn’t make a difference. I must admit the possibility of discrimination on property taxes based on party affiliation had never occurred to me. I hate real estate taxes more than ever now.

     

     

    If you appeal them to at least the second level you can probably get the same kind of deal as I did. You need plenty of documentation and Comparables on like property. Then when you find large discrepancies check the voter registration. They give in easily so as not to make headlines. I didn’t need to threaten them. It was like “ Let’s Make A Deal”

    contact Judicial Watch

     

    • #28
    • August 3, 2020, at 11:51 PM PDT
    • Like
  29. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    PHCheese (View Comment):

    namlliT noD (View Comment):

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    This has been going on a long time. The mayor of Boston in the forty’s and fifties named Curley took it to an art form. They teach it in some colleges. He probably stole it from some other Democrat. It now referred to as the Curley Effect.

    Not enough people are familiar with The Curley Effect. ‘Great topic for a post.

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    If you appeal them to at least the second level you can probably get the same kind of deal as I did. You need plenty of documentation and Comparables on like property. Then when you find large discrepancies check the voter registration. They give in easily so as not to make headlines. I didn’t need to threaten them. It was like “ Let’s Make A Deal”

    This could be an awesome business opportunity! Seriously.

    Automate the documentation and comparables part, so that becomes easy. Charge a percentage of the reduction, so the potential customer has nothing to lose. Y’r effectively printing money.

    The Comparables were the hard part for me because my home and properly were atypical. It’s much easier if you live in a development of like homes. Of course this all took place about 30 years ago.

    Isn’t property tax info publicly available?

    I think zillow and redfin have property tax info as well

     

    • #29
    • August 3, 2020, at 11:55 PM PDT
    • Like
  30. PHCheese Member

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    PHCheese (View Comment):

    namlliT noD (View Comment):

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    This has been going on a long time. The mayor of Boston in the forty’s and fifties named Curley took it to an art form. They teach it in some colleges. He probably stole it from some other Democrat. It now referred to as the Curley Effect.

    Not enough people are familiar with The Curley Effect. ‘Great topic for a post.

    PHCheese (View Comment):
    If you appeal them to at least the second level you can probably get the same kind of deal as I did. You need plenty of documentation and Comparables on like property. Then when you find large discrepancies check the voter registration. They give in easily so as not to make headlines. I didn’t need to threaten them. It was like “ Let’s Make A Deal”

    This could be an awesome business opportunity! Seriously.

    Automate the documentation and comparables part, so that becomes easy. Charge a percentage of the reduction, so the potential customer has nothing to lose. Y’r effectively printing money.

    The Comparables were the hard part for me because my home and properly were atypical. It’s much easier if you live in a development of like homes. Of course this all took place about 30 years ago.

    Isn’t property tax info publicly available?

    I think zillow and redfin have property tax info as well

     

    Yes the tax information was public information but my property was hard to find like property. I had 22 acres, a small but unique house and a 22,000 sq ft barn. There weren’t many properties like that in my area so it took some looking to find them. Plus I had a business to run.

    • #30
    • August 4, 2020, at 1:20 PM PDT
    • Like