Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
My Kid’s School Re-opening Plans
The prep school for #4 son (#2 and #3 graduated from there, attending High School after homeschooling) had a big webinar on all the things they are doing to re-open, including following all CDC suggestions: masks, distancing, the works. I could not watch much. Instead, I wrote the below to the headmaster:
Dear [Headmaster]
I appreciate that you are in an impossible situation. Yet I feel that I must share my point of view, even though it does not follow the current orthodoxy.
While we don’t have any certainty (from my perspective, we lack absolute certainty for any decision we make in life), I have no doubt that having COVID makes it unlikely or impossible to have it again for some months, and possibly much longer – otherwise active infection numbers would not be declining in areas previously infected. In other words, we are seeing effective herd immunities.
Additionally, and very importantly: Children are not very good spreaders of this virus. The less symptomatic the person, the less of a threat they pose to others.
Without school, workers cannot work and teachers cannot teach.
For me, this adds up to a simple conclusion: I recognize that there is no way to guarantee anyone’s safety. I want [Runt] in school. I don’t support physical distancing; boys interact through contact. I think that if kids must wear masks, they should be able to do so as a way of voicing protest (for whatever non-profane message they care to make – because covering one’s face is dehumanizing). I want the full [School] experience for my sons.
People who are at-risk must take precautions and act accordingly. Indeed, if I had my druthers, I’d recommend that [School] maximize free will: accept those who wish to attend without masks, those who wear masks, and those who are unwilling to come onto campus. Waivers could be extended to limit liability. And it would be great if teachers who wear masks could choose from the transparent options so kids can much more readily see expressions.
This is the first time in history that we have quarantined healthy people. From my perspective, this entire episode will go down in history as comparable to the Tulip Mania, and I am ashamed that so many otherwise-rational people have fallen for it. I look forward to supporting [School] choosing to prioritize itself and its students over the mass psychosis that is paralyzing the world. I pray it comes sooner rather than later.
Published in General
I believe DATA- which is why I advocate the use of masks. You have created a sealed hermeneutical system that is impervious to change- ie You believe A and any data or anybody claiming B is either a liar or corrupt. It isn’t a rational system.
The eager bureaucrats ask the lawyers. The lawyers, knowing that the bureaucrats are eager, answer as anticipated.
It’s a spiral.
you do not believe data. You have an emotional attachment to something that you very much want to be true, and you believe only the studies that support your pre-determined view. You can say the same about me, if you’d like (you already have). But you cannot pretend that there is a consensus. The only actual studies involving masks show that they are ineffective even for personal use, but especially as a universal strategy for combating a virus. The only support is anecdotal. Literally nothing has changed in “the science.” The only thing that has changed is that the “mask-pushers” have gotten very loud, and because people are so amazingly stupid, they see something becoming more and more popular (and I have already discussed why this happens) and it becomes a snowball of bad reasoning, which is why we now hear stuff like “it is becoming increasingly clear.” No, it has not become clear, it is becoming increasingly popular. If we take even the smallest look at history, we understand that the most harmful and dangerous things occur because of popular demand. This mask nonsense is no exception. That is why our constitution, with individual rights and separation of powers, exists.
If you want to wear a mask an make a fool out of yourself while claiming to be virtuous, I have no problem with that. Wear a full hazmat suit for all I care. You have no right to force that religious belief on others.
I was talking to our superintendent of schools yesterday. She was letting us know what items will be in our board meeting Monday evening (she gives us an early heads up for anything that might be controversial). The state has mandated that we officer both in person and remote classes. Content, grading, etc have to be the same for both cohorts. The expected controversy is extracurricular activities. If a parent chooses remote learning, can their children still play sports on school teams? Seems like an easy no to me, but I’m really curious to hear what the arguments are come Monday.
I trust honest data. And that seems to be in short supply around the world, but clearly so in the US bureaucracy.
Summary: Sure as *&$% does not rise to the level of justifying our governments to exercise unconstitutional and dictatorial powers by forcing something on people without their consent.
We used to live in a country where that sort of thing was not only considered important, but it was worth going to war over.
Today, we are ruled by a group of ignorant busybodies who desire to control others in order to feel “safe.” And if the last 20 years have taught us anything, it is that this group is never satisfied by getting whatever it is asking for in this moment.
Name the studies……b/c that isn’t what they show. The data is far from perfect but to date it supports the efficacy of masks in limiting spread. Once again, the best data we have are observational studies & they support the contention that mask use leads to less contagion. We have little else to fight it (save social distancing) and masks are cheap. We are seeing record number of cases on an almost daily basis- and ICUs are getting full in the South & Southwest- ominous signs. Deaths have not spiked as much but deaths are a trailing indicator- hopefully better isolation of nursing homes helps keep deaths from catapulting up. But it is dangerous to ignore the early signs of problems (a big jump in cases) and to rely on changes in trailing indicators. Listen to people like Scott Gottlieb or Francis Collins.
Unfortunately, School sports are unlikely to occur this fall- the dominos are already falling- Ivy League cancelling sports etc. We need to reopen schools to continue their primary function- education. It may imperil that goal by allowing sports- I hope it isn’t so but holding sports will be a real challenge this fall.
Not sure I understand your reasoning here. They are still paying their property taxes, so why wouldn’t or shouldn’t they have access to all of the district’s activities, facilities, and resources?
So, @iwe, any response?
Because the parent is choosing to keep their child home presumably from the risk of infection, but then placing them into a full contact sport like football. It makes no sense.
I guess I can envision a parent making a distinction between allowing his kid to sit in a classroom with 25 other kids all day and allowing that kid to run around on a soccer field a couple of hours per week.
1) Yea- those crazy Japanese did so poorly with the coronavirus b/c they wore masks-ohhh wait they did very well- as Rosanne Rosanadana would say- never mind!
2) pore size has little to do with blocking the virus- the virus is smaller than the ”pore size“ of N95 masks. B/c viruses don’t fly through the air naked & electrostatics are heavily involved in masks. The study you cite was in healthcare personnel during an influenza outbreak-not in the community. However if you read learned criticism of this study & similar studies it is frequently pointed out that the workers only wore the masks on the hospital ward, but healthcare workers often get influenza from community contact ( their family etc)- situations where they are not wearing a mask(at home, in the grocery store, at a bar). So the study doesn’t mimic the community use of masks to reduce contagion. Furthermore, the studies typically compare cloth masks to other masks in areas with very high viral loads (the pulmonary units in a hospital) which isn’t representative of community settings.
3) from the Annals of Internal Medicine review of masks-
Community settings. Three observational studies (2857 participants) evaluated masks and SARS-1 risk in community settings (Supplement Table 4) (31, 51, 54). The studies did not compare mask types or provide details regarding mask type. Wearing a mask was associated with decreased risk for infection in persons without known SARS-1 contacts in 1 study (54) and in household contacts of patients with SARS-1 in 2 studies (Supplement Table 6) (31, 51).
these studies are the best data we have- this was the community use of masks
by lay personnel during an epidemic by a similar virus and they show that masks were effective.
4) the Infectious Disease Society of America, the American Lung Assoc, the American College of Cardiology etc all support the use of masks. [from the American. College of Cardiology-
I’m surprised at how strong the objections to the masks are. Masks seems like a cheap and easy prevention practice for people to adopt. To me, it looks like just one more thing we can do to gain a slight advantage in our ongoing and constant battle with insects, molds, yeasts, mildews, fungi, viruses, and bacteria.
I have three grown kids and now a grandson, and in my adult life I have spent more of my time and money on achieving some sort of cleanliness than just about anything else I can think of. Fending off bugs of all sizes affects everything I do every day–from how I handle the food in the house to how often the bathrooms and kitchen are cleaned to brushing my teeth and getting outside every day to strengthen my immune system.
Human beings are hardwired to avoid yukky stuff in our immediate environment. Years ago I read a book related to the hotel industry, and the author said that one of the big chains had conducted a massive survey of its guests to find out what was most important to them. There were many choices of things for respondents to pick from ranging from the breakfast buffet to the decorations in the room. The unanimous choice of the respondents was cleanliness.
There’s no way to prove definitively how a patient contacted a sickening amount of any virus. We are surrounded by viruses and bacteria every single day. We deploy a highly developed and expensive arsenal of materials and practices to avoid becoming sick, and we do so with a resigned attitude that it’s more about luck than anything else.
The battle over the “fomites” was a funny chapter in this pandemic story. I kept thinking, “Has anyone thought to ask the Lysol manufacturers for their thoughts? They’ve been working in this area since 1889. They know a lot.” :-)
Our lack of certainty in knowing how an individual may have actually contracted this virus is probably a true blessing. I hate to think of what kind of neighbor-against-neighbor civil wars would start if we could ever prove definitively that one person passed the virus on to another.
I look at each of the hundreds of measures we take to be only a tiny bit effective on its own but possibly more effective than doing nothing when all of these measures taken together. That ratio of effectiveness is true of all of the disinfection strategies I use every day. It’s game I know I will lose sometimes. But it’s worth it to me to keep playing. :-) The mask is just one more thing on the list. :-)
I don’t believe in using force for any of the disease-prevention steps we take. Masks remain only one of many prevention strategies. Out of respect for John Adams, when reasoning is failing, we cannot resort to “might makes right.” Instead, we need to improve our reasoning. :-)
To what, precisely?
I meant did you receive a reply from the headmaster.
Not a word.
I just realized why so many intelligent and thoughtful people are really upset about the masks.
As I wrote in an earlier comment above, for me, it’s just one more thing on the list a billion things I’m supposed to do to ward off disease and insects. That’s a good way to adjust to this new requirement on a personal level so it doesn’t drag me and everyone else down.
But I just realized why this is a step too far for many people. The mask wearing is a visual constant reminder to live in fear of a virus that, in reality, is waning and is not as virulent as scientists first thought it was. It’s the negative and fear-inducing psychological effect of seeing everyone around us wearing masks that is bothering people.
The panic will never end as long as the masks are being worn.
So that’s why the science matters here. And the science is not supportive of mask wearing as preventing anything.
It is also deeply dehumanizing. Hiding one’s face is to deny their individuality. I oppose Burkas for the same reason.
Yup.
The inability to distinguish between causation and correlation features prominent in the pro-mask crowd. Also makes for very bad science.
You have part of it correct-while correlation doesn’t prove causality it is frequently the driver of scientific progress. When Charles Goodyear accidentally spilled the rubber on the hot stove & discovered vulcanization, he didn’t just throw out the result and say it is just a correlation. When Newton was hit by the apple, he just didn’t say that’s a weird correlation-he began to investigate the correlation. Scientists frequently begin their work by LOOKING for correlations and then trying to determine IF they are causal. That is how many fundamental laws of science have been elucidated. And that is so in this case- investigators looked (observational studies!) at the spread of a coronavirus (SARS) in the COMMUNITY and found it was less in those who wore masks-exactly the point we are discussing. That is not definitive proof- but it is the best data we have. When Lister wrote the initial report of his series of cases using his antisepsic method he had NO proof of the mechanism- all he had was a correlation- a series of cases in which when he applied his technique there were fewer infections afterwards than typically encountered. It wasn’t a double randomized, blinded study, case controlled etc-b/c, as I have stated previously, they are frequently difficult to do. But no intelligent surgeon failed to adopt his techniques (altho many made fun of his purported explanation- which turned out to be right). He saved MILLIONS by showing a correlation between his techniques and reduced infections.
You don’t need to explain anything to me… as you seem to have missed my point.
We were talking about when it is appropriate for governments to use coercion to force their preferred behavior on citizens. The burden of proof on that one is extremely high. While – as a person with a strong background in science and a fairly decent track record of academic rigor – I disagree with your assessment of the science involved, that is largely irrelevant to the discussion. This is a country where we jealously protect our liberties, and covid, more than anything else, is a fantastic example of why that is so important.
Meanwhile – in “is this solution anywhere close to being proportionate with the threat?” news:
Hammer- we aren’t discussing mandates- just the efficacy of masks. As I said earlier, you can oppose masks on many grounds but one should not on the basis of efficacy. I’ve maintained that the use of masks is a sensible policy and part of a strategy to minimize the spread of, & deaths due to, COVID. Nowhere did I advocate mandates. But that isn’t what many are trying to do-I have consistently pushed back against claims that masks are useless- that isn’t what the data shows. That doesn’t mean I support Whitmer-I support people like Gottleib.
FYI- the mortality of the flu is probably significantly less than 0.1% for the same reasons COVID mortality is hard to pin down- many mild cases never get into the data base. Altho that number is frequently stated it is probably an overestimate. In any event it is VERY apparent that COVID is worse than the flu-the deaths to date make it amply clear.
So the Hitchhiker’s Guide updated its mask entry from useless to nearly useless.