Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Coronavirus Update: The US and the Grand Canyon State

 

I have another COVID-19 update for you today, focusing on the U.S. generally, and specifically on my home state of Arizona. I’ve heard that there has been some media focus on Arizona in recent weeks.

My last post was on June 23 (here), with my standard analysis comparing reported COVID-19 deaths in the US and Western Europe. I did run that analysis again today but am not going to post new graphs, as the trends are unchanged.

As usual, my data source is Johns Hopkins (here). My report today uses U.S. data through July 4, 2020, which includes daily reported deaths at the county level throughout the US.

If you’ve followed the COVID-19 outbreak in the US, you know that the early deaths were very highly concentrated in the New York City area, and in the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut which contain the NYC metro area. My general sense is that recent media coverage has focused, for political purposes, I think, on increases in cases (and perhaps deaths) in other states. As a result, like me, you may have the impression that NY, NJ, and CT have the outbreak under control, while supposedly irresponsible red states like Arizona, Georgia, and Texas are having outbreaks.

I. New York City is Still Above the National Average

Here’s my first graph, showing the 7-day average of reported COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population, for (1) the US as a whole, (2) NY-NJ-CT, and (3) the US excluding NY-NJ-CT:

You can see a huge jump in NY-NJ-CT (yellow line) on June 25, which is an anomaly in the data, due to New Jersey reporting about 1,800 prior deaths on that date (due to a change of classification criteria, I think). This doesn’t really matter, because the effect of this anomalous increase is passed in the 7-day average.

The notable fact is that the 7-day average for NY-NJ-CT (yellow) continues to be higher than the 7-day average for the rest of the country (purple).

II. Arizona’s COVID-19 Deaths In Perspective

It is true that Arizona has experienced an increase in COVID-19 deaths in recent weeks. Arizona remains well below the overall national average in cumulative COVID-19 deaths.

In addition to comparing Arizona to the country as a whole, I’ve included Los Angeles County in my calculations. LA County has a population of about 10 million, somewhat more than Arizona’s total population of about 7.2 million. LA County is supposedly under a strict lockdown, while Arizona is supposedly an irresponsible red state that rushed to reopen.

Here is a graph of cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths, per 100,000 population, for Arizona, LA County, and the US as a whole. I’ve also included the trend line for NY-NJ-CT (which is pretty much a proxy for the NYC area).

This graph makes it difficult to understand what all the fuss is about in Arizona. Our COVID-19 deaths, adjusted for population, are well below the national average, lower than locked-down LA County, and far lower than the NYC area.

Arizona is a large and complicated state, as I will address in Section IV below, which drills down to more local data at the county level. We have two large metro areas: (1) the Phoenix area, in Maricopa County, and (2) the Tucson area, in Pima County. Johns Hopkins does not report COVID-19 death counts in Arizona by city, but only by county. So I am using Maricopa County to represent the Phoenix area, and Pima County to represent the Tucson area.

Maricopa County has a population of almost 4.5 million, which is 61% of the state’s population. Pima County’s population is just over 1 million, another 14% of the state total. The counties are big geographically, each around 9,200 square miles, which is bigger than New Hampshire, Massachusetts, or New Jersey. (Maricopa County actually edges Vermont, too.)

Here is the graph of population-adjusted COVID-19 deaths for Los Angeles County, Maricopa County (Phoenix), and Pima County (Tucson), plus the total national figure:

As you can see, LA has suffered less than the national average; Pima County (Tucson) has suffered less than LA, and Maricopa County (Phoenix) has suffered least of all.

But Arizona has mandated masks, and closed bars, and I didn’t get to go to church again today. (The closing of church is not mandated by the state; it was the decision of my church leadership.)

It is true that the trend line in Maricopa County (Phoenix) has been steeper than the others in the past week or two. Here is the same data, showing the 7-day moving average:

To me, this does not look like a serious cause for concern. The recent increase in Maricopa County (Phoenix) is a bit troubling, and actions have already been taken (including ordinances requiring masks in public, which also apply in Pima County).

III. Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Just for kicks, here’s a quick example of how Fake News works.

Say that I was a Wokeist propagandist journalist at a major news outlet. Let’s make it the New York Times because I really think that they are the very best at this. (Admittedly, this is a strange use of the word “best,” but you’ll see what I mean.) Here’s what I would do (and what I have done).

Pick a particular day around the peak of COVID-19 deaths in NYC, on which deaths in Maricopa County (Phoenix) were very low. Then pick a recent day on which NYC deaths were unusually low, but Maricopa County deaths were unusually high. Two great days happen to be April 7 (the peak in NYC) and July 1. Then I could “honestly” write a headline saying:

Between the peak of the outbreak in New York on April 7 and July 1, COVID-19 daily deaths in New York City declined 99%, while daily deaths in the Phoenix area increased over 1,000%.

Well, that’s true. On July 1, NYC reported 8 deaths, a rate of 0.10 per 100,000, while Maricopa County reported 46 deaths, a rate of 1.03 per 100,000. On April 7, NYC reported 814 deaths, a rate of 9.76 per 100,000, while Maricopa County reported 4 deaths, a rate of 0.09 per 100,000.

Then I could praise Gov. Cuomo and Mayor DeBlasio for their enlightened leadership while castigating that Trump-loving right-wing hack of an Arizona governor, Doug Ducey.

This would conveniently distract everyone’s attention from the following graph, showing the 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population. Note that this is the exact same data as my prior graph comparing LA, Phoenix, and Tucson, except that New York City is added:

The green line is New York City. Notice that the death rate was so high back in April that the trend lines for LA, Phoenix, and Tucson are hard to differentiate. That tiny yellow hump at the far left edge of the graph is the source of the criticism of Arizona and our supposedly reckless governor.

For the record, the latest 7-day average of reported COVID-19 deaths per 100,000, as of July 4, are:

  • Arizona (statewide): 0.47 per 100,000
  • Maricopa County (Phoenix): 0.44 per 100,000
  • New York City: 0.25 per 100,000
  • Los Angeles County: 0.24 per 100,000
  • Pima County (Tucson): 0.19 per 100,000

I don’t think that we have much of a problem here in Arizona. I do think that it was sensible to take the relatively minor precautions that we adopted a couple of weeks ago while keeping almost all businesses open.

IV. A Deep Dive in Arizona

Admittedly, it’s hard to do a deep dive in Arizona. It’s hard to find any water at all, especially at this time of year.

I have one more graph for you, at a level of detail that requires a pretty good understanding of Arizona geography and population at the county level. I’m not sure if this will be of interest to non-Arizonans, but I’m going to include a brief discussion of Arizona demographics. Fortunately for you (or maybe not), I’ve been living here for 47 years, so I know the state pretty well.

Arizona is a pretty big place, over 113,000 square miles, which is just smaller than Italy. It is the 6th largest state, with a population of almost 7.3 million. As noted above, the most populous county is Maricopa County, which includes the Phoenix metro area, with a population of almost 4.5 million, over 60% of the state total. The second most populous county is Pima County, my home county, which includes the Tucson metro area, with a population of a bit over 1 million. There are about 1.7 million people in the rest of the state, spread over 13 more counties (a total of 15).

Arizona has an Indian population of over 270,000, second only to Oklahoma (source here). That is just under 4% of the population of the state. Many Arizona Indians live on a number of reservations, some of which are huge. The Navajo Nation is over 27,000 square miles — bigger than West Virginia — and is mostly in northeastern Arizona, though it stretches into Utah and New Mexico as well. We have three additional reservations bigger than Delaware: the Tohono O’Odham Nation, west of Tucson, and two Apache reservations, the White Mountain and San Carlos reservations, in east-central Arizona. Over 27% of Arizona is tribal land (source here).

To make matters more confusing, many of our counties have Indian names, some of which coincide with the names of tribes, but the tribal reservations are not necessarily in the county named for the tribe. We have an Apache County (far northeastern Arizona) and a Navajo County (also northeastern Arizona, but west of Apache County). But large sections of the Navajo Nation are in Navajo County, Apache County, and Coconino County (home of our friend Gary Robbins). The White Mountain Apache reservation is in Apache, Navajo, and Gila Counties, and the San Carlos Apache reservation is in Gila and Graham Counties (and not in Apache County).

Got that? I know, it’s complicated. Here’s a map of tribal lands in Arizona:

You’re probably wondering why I’m telling you all of this. The reason is my suspicion that a significant portion of Arizona’s COVID-19 death toll, and perhaps much of the current increase, is occurring on Indian reservations.

According to the Arizona Department of Health Services (here), 16% of COVID-19 deaths in Arizona — 298 of 1,809 total deaths — were Indians. Remember, they are less than 4% of the state population. The worst outbreak is in the Navajo Nation, which reports 377 deaths (here), though some of those may have been in New Mexico and Utah. The White Mountain Apache reservation had 20 deaths as of last week, and more than 1/8 of the tribe were reportedly infected (here).

The deaths of Arizona Indians did not necessarily all occur on reservations. There’s no law requiring an Indian to live on a reservation, which is as it should be. The family next door could be Indian, though I don’t happen to have known many Indians during my time in Arizona (other than my time spent specifically on a reservation). I did have a buddy in junior high who was a Tohono O’Odham, one of my best friends at the time, though we still called them Papagos back then. (Papago was a name they didn’t like. I don’t think that it was ever intended as an insult. It was just a mispronunciation, based on what another tribe called the Tohono O’Odham. So we palefaces properly agreed to call them by their rightful name, which means “Desert People.”)

On to the Johns Hopkins data. Here is the graph of reported COVID-19 deaths in Arizona, by county, per 100,000 population:

Maricopa County (Phoenix area) is the yellow line, and Pima County (Tucson area) is the red line. These are both pretty low.

The biggest problems, by a wide margin, are in Apache County (blue) and Navajo County (brown), with death rates that are about 5 times higher than the statewide average. Coconino County (orange-brown) is third, with a death rate over 2 1/2 times the statewide average.

The Navajo Nation is located in Apache, Navajo, and Coconino Counties. The Hopi reservation is also in Navajo and Coconino Counties, and the White Mountain Apache reservation is in Apache, Navajo, and Gila Counties. (I’m particularly familiar with the White Mountain Apache Reservation, and know that very little of the tribe’s population is in Gila County.)

The next hardest-hit Arizona counties are Yuma County (light gray) and Santa Cruz County (light blue). These are border counties, and I suspect that the higher levels here are associated with cross-border issues and perhaps illegal immigration. I realize that if you look on the map, you’ll see that Pima County and Cochise County have lengthy borders with Mexico, but you have to understand the population distribution of these counties and the locations of the border crossings to realize that one would expect bigger problems in Santa Cruz and Yuma Counties.

My suspicion, therefore, is that the COVID-19 figures reported in Arizona are heavily concentrated on the reservations (especially the Navajo Nation) and in a pair of border towns (Yuma and Nogales). There seems to be much less cause for concern in the rest of the state.

ChiCom and BLM delenda est.

Published in Healthcare
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  1. Gary McVey Contributor
    Gary McVey Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    A very well written and reasoned post. Thanks for a non-sensationalized look at real facts. 

    • #1
    • July 5, 2020, at 3:17 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  2. Steven Seward Member

    Brilliant post, as always, Arizona! Thank you so much for laying out the salient points so I don’t have to go slogging through tedious data in order to understand the “real news” as opposed to what they are spoon-feeding us on CNN et al.

    • #2
    • July 5, 2020, at 3:32 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  3. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member

    I would really like to see state-level analyses like this for other states. I don’t have either the time, or the local knowledge, to be able to do it myself for states the other, lesser — but still awesome — 49 states of the Union.

    • #3
    • July 5, 2020, at 3:35 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  4. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    There is a theory that cases follow the indoor season of each state. It is now the indoor season down south and outdoor season up north. The idea is that transmission is more likely in a closed air environment and very unlikely outdoors.

    On a local note, since the state of Texas exempts mask wearing when drinking, I find myself compelled to always have a drink at the ready. 

    • #4
    • July 5, 2020, at 7:11 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
  5. Nohaaj Coolidge

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):
    I find myself compelled to always have a drink at the ready. 

    I have heard from the most reasoned sources that alcohol does kill this virus, when applied in proper dosage. 

     

    • #5
    • July 5, 2020, at 8:08 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  6. Rodin Member

    Thanks for the update and confirmation that the trajectory of the disease remains unchanged. 

    • #6
    • July 5, 2020, at 8:26 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  7. Unsk Member

    There is a theory that cases follow the indoor season of each state.

    I think Saudi Arabia has also had a surge in cases and I think they blamed it on having to rely heavily on air conditioning that did recirculated the air. Arizona and SA are like ovens this time of year.

    • #7
    • July 5, 2020, at 11:04 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  8. Full Size Tabby Member

    As you note, the Navajo Nation extends into northwest New Mexico, and is one of New Mexico’s highest concentrations of Covid-19 activity. For a while state officials literally blocked the exits from Interstate 40 (concrete barriers and police cars) to prevent people from exiting the highway in and around Gallup, NM. 

    Our daughter who lives in New Mexico says anecdotally a lot of New Mexico’s virus activity is in the Indian pueblos (reservations).

    • #8
    • July 6, 2020, at 6:50 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  9. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    Excellent and educational post. Thanks.

    I am disappointed with Ducey for his mandate for masks outdoors. It makes no sense but that is not unusual these days.

    • #9
    • July 6, 2020, at 7:26 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  10. Full Size Tabby Member

    The politicians of the sunbelt states seem to be overreacting to rises in the numbers of cases. The media urge them to overreact with cries of “record” “all time high” “exploding” “exponentially rising” numbers, which cries greatly exaggerate the actual numbers. 

    And sometimes the politicians go along with these scare tactics to justify closures and limitations. There is a lot of panic in my state of Texas because hospitalizations hit an “all time high” of something like 8,000 current hospitalizations. But this is a state of about 29 million people. I haven’t seen numbers of cumulative hospitalizations, but it still seems like a small number relative to the panic it is inducing. In my own county (population 140,000), we have had cumulatively 5 hospitalizations, of which 3 recovered and returned home. 

    Our county’s top elected official (confusingly called a “judge”) Deen offered some sensible comments:

    “We did have a spike in positive cases here and we’ve got our hands around it now. These numbers tell us that when people get it, they’re recovering from it and they move on,” Deen said. “We have to keep in perspective what these numbers mean and continue to move forward.”

    He has been pushing back against Governor Abbott’s more extreme demands.

    • #10
    • July 6, 2020, at 8:15 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  11. Susan Quinn Contributor

    Outstanding post, Jerry. Thanks for all your good work!

    • #11
    • July 6, 2020, at 8:34 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  12. The Reticulator Member

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Excellent and educational post. Thanks.

    I am disappointed with Ducey for his mandate for masks outdoors. It makes no sense but that is not unusual these days.

    It’s part of a campaign to make people disrespect masks. Whether it’s an intentional campaign, I don’t know.

    • #12
    • July 6, 2020, at 8:49 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  13. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Excellent and educational post. Thanks.

    I am disappointed with Ducey for his mandate for masks outdoors. It makes no sense but that is not unusual these days.

    The governor did not mandate this. He allowed cities and towns to create mask ordinances. Most of the ordinances I’ve seen like that in Maricopa County require masks to be worn in enclosed public spaces where 6 feet distancing can’t be maintained or indoors. 

    • #13
    • July 6, 2020, at 9:08 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  14. The Reticulator Member

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    I would really like to see state-level analyses like this for other states. I don’t have either the time, or the local knowledge, to be able to do it myself for states the other, lesser — but still awesome — 49 states of the Union.

    I had noticed some time back that a lot of deaths seemed to be happening on Indian reservations in western states, and not only in Arizona. That doesn’t mean those aren’t a serious problem, but any mitigation (I don’t believe in solutions) might need to be different there than in urban areas, which might be different from rural, non-reservation areas. There are some differences in the ways people live together and socialize together.

    • #14
    • July 6, 2020, at 9:33 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  15. Steven Seward Member

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    The politicians of the sunbelt states seem to be overreacting to rises in the numbers of cases. The media urge them to overreact with cries of “record” “all time high” “exploding” “exponentially rising” numbers, which cries greatly exaggerate the actual numbers.

    This sounds so familiar. Journalists have been telling us for years that a 6/10 of one degree rise in global temperature is “sizzling, roasting, burning, searing, scalding, scorching, unprecedented warming, exponentially rising, all-time record, highest ever recorded, worst heat anomaly ever, etc….etc….etc…..

    • #15
    • July 6, 2020, at 9:48 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  16. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    Good analysis, thanks.

    I agree that AZ is not anything like NY in March and April. For that matter, if we had the testing currently available, deployed in NY back then, New York City alone would have had as many new covid cases as the entire nation does daily now.

    I also think the relatively limited actions by the state and municipalities makes sense.

    Some comments:

    While Indians make up a disproportionate share of the fatalities, that figure has been a relative constant since March so, while it has increased along with everything else since Memorial Day, its relative role has not changed.

    I remain concerned about the situation in Maricopa if the current case increase does not begin to turn around over the next 7-10 days as the ripple effect on the healthcare system is going to kick in and we could see a spike in deaths as the ability of healthcare providers to attend to individual patients declines.

    The problem remains the sheer numbers. On May 25, Maricopa had 8,340 cases. As of this morning it has 64,686. While testing has gone up 2X, cases are up 8X and positives have gone from 5% to more than 20%. The good news is hospitalization rates, which were 13.1% on May 25 have run at 3.2% since then and the mortality rate which was 4.4% on May 25 has been only 0.9% since, due to the younger demographic of those testing positive. The bad news is the absolute totals have still led to 2.7X increase in hospitalizations and 2.1X in ICU (it is actually probably higher but Maricopa only reports cases confirmed by testing and there is up to a 10-day lag in this metric).

    As you point out, deaths have been only slowly increasing despite the high rate of positive case increase, going from 5.3 a day during the first 70 days to 11.8 a day since Memorial Day. What has changed is the age and health composition. Prior to Memorial Day, 71% of deaths were in long term care while since then it is only 44%. Unfortunately, I expect we will see a further increase in deaths starting tomorrow (Monday reports on deaths are always low because of the weekend).

    • #16
    • July 6, 2020, at 9:50 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  17. colleenb Member
    colleenb Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Other than poverty and, probably, obesity and diabetes being higher in the Indian areas, do you see another reason why they are having a larger number of cases? Also is the death rate higher for Indians? (I understand that the data may not allow you to determine that.) Thanks so much for your post and all the solid information and data.

    • #17
    • July 6, 2020, at 10:14 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  18. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    colleenb (View Comment):

    Other than poverty and, probably, obesity and diabetes being higher in the Indian areas, do you see another reason why they are having a larger number of cases? Also is the death rate higher for Indians? (I understand that the data may not allow you to determine that.) Thanks so much for your post and all the solid information and data.

    Lack of running water in 1/3 of the Navajo households, relatively small homes and extended families within. But, as Jerry notes, the rate is higher throughout Arizona even outside that corner of the state. I don’t have the relative death figures for Maricopa but here Indians make up 6% of hospitalizations while being 2% of the population. You can track what is going on daily in Navajo Nation here.

    • #18
    • July 6, 2020, at 10:19 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  19. colleenb Member
    colleenb Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    colleenb (View Comment):

    Other than poverty and, probably, obesity and diabetes being higher in the Indian areas, do you see another reason why they are having a larger number of cases? Also is the death rate higher for Indians? (I understand that the data may not allow you to determine that.) Thanks so much for your post and all the solid information and data.

    Lack of running water in 1/3 of the Navajo households, relatively small homes and extended families within. But, as Jerry notes, the rate is higher throughout Arizona even outside that corner of the state. I don’t have the relative death figures for Maricopa but here Indians make up 6% of hospitalizations while being 2% of the population. You can track what is going on daily in Navajo Nation here.

    Thanks. Again I appreciate the facts v. hysteria.

    • #19
    • July 6, 2020, at 11:12 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  20. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Excellent and educational post. Thanks.

    I am disappointed with Ducey for his mandate for masks outdoors. It makes no sense but that is not unusual these days.

    The governor did not mandate this. He allowed cities and towns to create mask ordinances. Most of the ordinances I’ve seen like that in Maricopa County require masks to be worn in enclosed public spaces where 6 feet distancing can’t be maintained or indoors.

    No, I think he has now mandated them for the state and that includes (ridiculously) outdoors. Tucson has a lunatic Mayor but it is now statewide, I believe. Pima County also seems to be in the hands of lunatics.

    • #20
    • July 6, 2020, at 1:24 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  21. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    colleenb (View Comment):

    Other than poverty and, probably, obesity and diabetes being higher in the Indian areas, do you see another reason why they are having a larger number of cases? Also is the death rate higher for Indians? (I understand that the data may not allow you to determine that.) Thanks so much for your post and all the solid information and data.

    Indians have a weaker immune system. You might read Greg Cochran’s book, “The 10,000 Year Explosion,” about evolution and the effect of the 10,000 year isolation of Amerindians. They were unexposed to “Old World” diseases prior to the Columbus landing. Amerindians have, for example, much lower rates of autoimmune diseases.

    https://www.amazon.com/000-Year-Explosion-Civilization-Accelerated/dp/0465020429

    It also explains why blacks tend to have chronic vitamin D deficiency,. which might factor into their risk with SARS 2

    • #21
    • July 6, 2020, at 1:31 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  22. The Reticulator Member

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    colleenb (View Comment):

    Other than poverty and, probably, obesity and diabetes being higher in the Indian areas, do you see another reason why they are having a larger number of cases? Also is the death rate higher for Indians? (I understand that the data may not allow you to determine that.) Thanks so much for your post and all the solid information and data.

    Indians have a weaker immune system. You might read Greg Cochran’s book, “The 10,000 Year Explosion,” about evolution and the effect of the 10,000 year isolation of Amerindians. They were unexposed to “Old World” diseases prior to the Columbus landing. Amerindians have, for example, much lower rates of autoimmune diseases.

    https://www.amazon.com/000-Year-Explosion-Civilization-Accelerated/dp/0465020429

    It also explains why blacks tend to have chronic vitamin D deficiency,. which might factor into their risk with SARS 2

    I’ve added it to my Kindle queue, but it’ll have to wait in line. I’m currently reading your book. It’s very interesting, but my Kindle reading has slowed down the last coupla weeks.

    • #22
    • July 6, 2020, at 2:23 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  23. Clifford A. Brown Contributor

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Excellent and educational post. Thanks.

    I am disappointed with Ducey for his mandate for masks outdoors. It makes no sense but that is not unusual these days.

    Mask wearing outdoors applies only to crowds or clustering, not you or your family staying 6 feet apart from others in public, if I read the various proclamations correctly.

    • #23
    • July 6, 2020, at 3:49 PM PDT
    • Like
  24. Clifford A. Brown Contributor

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Excellent and educational post. Thanks.

    I am disappointed with Ducey for his mandate for masks outdoors. It makes no sense but that is not unusual these days.

    The governor did not mandate this. He allowed cities and towns to create mask ordinances. Most of the ordinances I’ve seen like that in Maricopa County require masks to be worn in enclosed public spaces where 6 feet distancing can’t be maintained or indoors.

    No, I think he has now mandated them for the state and that includes (ridiculously) outdoors. Tucson has a lunatic Mayor but it is now statewide, I believe. Pima County also seems to be in the hands of lunatics.

    Not so. The AZ governor’s executive orders do not show such a statewide mandate.

    • #24
    • July 6, 2020, at 3:56 PM PDT
    • Like
  25. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Excellent and educational post. Thanks.

    I am disappointed with Ducey for his mandate for masks outdoors. It makes no sense but that is not unusual these days.

    The governor did not mandate this. He allowed cities and towns to create mask ordinances. Most of the ordinances I’ve seen like that in Maricopa County require masks to be worn in enclosed public spaces where 6 feet distancing can’t be maintained or indoors.

    No, I think he has now mandated them for the state and that includes (ridiculously) outdoors. Tucson has a lunatic Mayor but it is now statewide, I believe. Pima County also seems to be in the hands of lunatics.

    Not so. The AZ governor’s executive orders do not show such a statewide mandate.

    Look at his Facebook posts.

    • #25
    • July 6, 2020, at 4:24 PM PDT
    • Like
  26. JustmeinAZ Member

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Excellent and educational post. Thanks.

    I am disappointed with Ducey for his mandate for masks outdoors. It makes no sense but that is not unusual these days.

    The governor did not mandate this. He allowed cities and towns to create mask ordinances. Most of the ordinances I’ve seen like that in Maricopa County require masks to be worn in enclosed public spaces where 6 feet distancing can’t be maintained or indoors.

    No, I think he has now mandated them for the state and that includes (ridiculously) outdoors. Tucson has a lunatic Mayor but it is now statewide, I believe. Pima County also seems to be in the hands of lunatics.

    Not so. The AZ governor’s executive orders do not show such a statewide mandate.

    Look at his Facebook posts.

    I don’t give a rat’s patootie what the order says. I will NOT wear a mask outdoors. Holy crap! It’s going to be at least 105 every day next week.

    • #26
    • July 6, 2020, at 5:55 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  27. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    colleenb (View Comment):

    Other than poverty and, probably, obesity and diabetes being higher in the Indian areas, do you see another reason why they are having a larger number of cases? Also is the death rate higher for Indians? (I understand that the data may not allow you to determine that.) Thanks so much for your post and all the solid information and data.

    Lack of running water in 1/3 of the Navajo households, relatively small homes and extended families within. But, as Jerry notes, the rate is higher throughout Arizona even outside that corner of the state. I don’t have the relative death figures for Maricopa but here Indians make up 6% of hospitalizations while being 2% of the population. You can track what is going on daily in Navajo Nation here.

    I haven’t attempted to analyze the reasons behind the unusually high death rates among Arizona Indians. There may be significant differences in lifestyle on the reservations, compared to typical city or suburban dwellers, but this would likely vary by reservation as well.

    Mark, thanks for the specific Indian info from Maricopa County. There are reservations in Maricopa County, which are not physically very big (compared to the huge Navajo, Apache, and Tohono O’Odham reservations), but at least two of them are immediately adjacent to the Phoenix metro area (the Salt River reservation to the south, and the Ft. McDowell reservation to the east).

    I want to add one more thing. I don’t think that it’s a conclusion that anyone has drawn. My attitude is not: “The deaths are just on the Indian reservations, so who cares.” Quite the contrary. Arizona Indians are my fellow citizens and fellow Arizonans — Indian Lives Matter, of course, like everybody. The issue that I was raising was policy. If our state has a notable outbreak, we should respond by focusing attention on the areas that have the problem.

    In the case of the reservations, I doubt that the State of Arizona has much to do in response, though I don’t know the jurisdictional details. This is not a lack of caring, but a question of overlapping authority. The reservations typically have their own government, which should be responding as appropriate. The Navajo and White Mountain Apache tribes seem to be taking action (and I just don’t know about the others).

    • #27
    • July 6, 2020, at 7:00 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  28. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    JustmeinAZ (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Excellent and educational post. Thanks.

    I am disappointed with Ducey for his mandate for masks outdoors. It makes no sense but that is not unusual these days.

    The governor did not mandate this. He allowed cities and towns to create mask ordinances. Most of the ordinances I’ve seen like that in Maricopa County require masks to be worn in enclosed public spaces where 6 feet distancing can’t be maintained or indoors.

    No, I think he has now mandated them for the state and that includes (ridiculously) outdoors. Tucson has a lunatic Mayor but it is now statewide, I believe. Pima County also seems to be in the hands of lunatics.

    Not so. The AZ governor’s executive orders do not show such a statewide mandate.

    Look at his Facebook posts.

    I don’t give a rat’s patootie what the order says. I will NOT wear a mask outdoors. Holy crap! It’s going to be at least 105 every day next week.

    CTH has a survey of commenters there. More than 400 responses. I think Greg Abbot has badly hurt his future electoral chances with his mask mandate. Ducey is close.

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2020/07/06/rebel-alliance-ground-reports-whats-your-current-covid-living-status/

     

    • #28
    • July 7, 2020, at 6:26 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  29. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    As an update, Arizona reported a record 117 deaths today. HOWEVER, this figure does not represent current conditions. 52 of the 117 deaths were from death certificate matching going back as far as April 12. The “real” figure is 65 which while high (I believe the highest previous total, excluding certificate matching, was in the 40s) is not a step change like the 117 figure would lead you to think. From looking at county data my guess is a lot of the older cases added in are from Yuma and Pima counties. If pattern of previous weeks Tues-Sat data reporting holds, the next few days should have less than 65 deaths. If not, we are in changed circumstances.

    • #29
    • July 7, 2020, at 12:18 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  30. Steven Seward Member

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    As an update, Arizona reported a record 117 deaths today. HOWEVER, this figure does not represent current conditions. 52 of the 117 deaths were from death certificate matching going back as far as April 12. The “real” figure is 65 which while high (I believe the highest previous total, excluding certificate matching, was in the 40s) is not a step change like the 117 figure would lead you to think. From looking at county data my guess is a lot of the older cases added in are from Yuma and Pima counties. If pattern of previous weeks Tues-Sat data reporting holds, the next few days should have less than 65 deaths. If not, we are in changed circumstances.

    I assume you got that figure from the Worldometers website. I looked at their graph on Arizona Covid deaths. It looks like their reporting lapses are even greater than most states, where few deaths are reported on the weekends and holidays, and are made up for on the following Mondays and Tuesdays where the deaths are counted. Their dip in reporting seems to be mostly on Sundays and Mondays. For instance they recorded 4 deaths this past Sunday and only a single death yesterday. The previous Monday they reported Zero. Presumably today’s count of 65 is an amalgam of the last three or four days.

    I’m assuming that Arizona Patriots’s data from Hopkins has smoothed over those uneven reporting issues, though he didn’t chart a specific graph on daily deaths for all of Arizona. When I look at the smoothing line for the seven day moving average on the Worldometers graph, I noticed that Arizona really had only one short period from May 8th through May 27th where the number of deaths decreased. This may be due simply to the low numbers we are dealing with that do not make very smooth graphs. Still, the recent rise in deaths is not very substantial compared to most states.

    • #30
    • July 7, 2020, at 2:03 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
    • This comment has been edited.