Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Is Arizona Stuck on Stupid Or Is It a Conspiracy of Cowards?

 

Consider the words of Arizona’s doctor, Dr. Cara Christ, director of the Arizona Department of Health Services, and the words and demeanor of Arizona Governor Ducey. Then consider the cowering state legislature. Is Arizona stuck on stupid, or governed by a conspiracy of cowards?

See if this makes sense to you, if it inspires you to bow down and accept a governor’s claim of continuing necessity based in the best science [emphasis added]:

Arizona Specific COVID-19 Models and Projections

Since December 2019, when we first heard about cases of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, the Arizona public health system has been closely monitoring COVID-19 on an international, national, and local level. Mitigating the spread of COVID-19, as well as responding to the impacts of the virus, remains our highest priority. Since our first case was reported in Arizona back in January, we have been working to protect our populations that are most severely impacted by the disease and preparing our healthcare system for a surge in cases. While many of the current models show that Arizona’s capacity is sufficient to meet the projected need for hospital beds and ventilators, in order to protect Arizonans, we have been preparing for a worst-case scenario while working to facilitate much better outcomes.

Back in February and March, when we didn’t know as much about COVID-19 as we know now, predictive models were based on the very limited experience and data from our Chinese counterparts in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China. Using Arizona-specific population data and modeling formulas from Harvard, the team at the Arizona Department of Health Services (ADHS), developed our initial Arizona projection looking at the anticipated need for inpatient and intensive care unit (ICU) beds required to treat COVID-19 patients. Based on that initial modeling, an estimated 13,000 additional inpatient beds and an additional 1500 ICU beds would be needed to care for Arizonans with COVID-19. When we calculated the potential spread, we estimated our peak resource needs would fall between the middle to end of April. Using those numbers, ADHS started to develop plans and work with healthcare partners to ensure we would have enough access to care to meet the demand.

As more information about the virus started coming out, additional models became available online. It’s important to note: these models all vary dramatically and are updated as new data is available. The two most prominent are found at healthdata.org and COVIDActNow.org. The models at healthdata.org are developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research center at the University of Washington. Early in the response, these models were predicting peak resource use around April 20, with 5,342 inpatient beds, 787 ICU beds, and 436 ventilators needed. The IHMEmodels have always been more optimistic than the original ADHS projections, and are updated every couple of days based on the data and mitigation strategies put into place. As of today, April 22, this model forecasts that Arizona has already passed our peak of resource utilization and only requires 424 inpatient beds, 103 ICU beds, and 92 ventilators*. This is well under our available resources and current hospital capacity.

The COVIDActNow.org model, otherwise known as the U.S. Interventions Model, is a data platform that projects COVID infections, hospitalizations, and deaths across the United States. It was built with input from experts at Google, Stanford University, Georgetown University, and other public health and analytic experts. In its early stages, this model was less optimistic than our initial Arizona projection, predicting tens of thousands of hospitalizations and deaths with our healthcare system becoming overloaded at the end of May. The COVIDActNow model is updated on a regular basis and incorporates current data and the state’s mitigation strategies to come up with newer predictions. Currently, it is showing that Arizona is predicted to be able to meet any COVID-19 healthcare requirements with our current available capacity and our current mitigation strategies in place*.

Over the past several weeks, ADHS has partnered with experts from Arizona State University and the University of Arizona to develop a more targeted, Arizona-specific model, with the most recent update received on Tuesday, April 21. This group of experts has worked on the COVID-19 response with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH). This model was extensive, taking into account our current data, mitigation strategies, and potential summer effects on viral transmission. It produced various scenarios that gave us a baseline estimate, with high and low ranges of potential hospitalization and ICU needs of Arizonans. The initial data we received 2 weeks ago from our Arizona team showed an estimated need for hospitalization of 15,000 individuals and 7,000 ICU beds needed. The recently updated version included newer data, and the model shifted. The most recent baseline estimates a peak need for 600 hospital beds and 300 ICU beds around May 22.

Last week, our federal partners from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR), and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) shared the modeling they had built for Arizona based on projection formulas developed by the Johns Hopkins University. This federal model takes into account the current data from the state as well as the mitigation strategies Arizona has put into place. While we are still pending approval from our federal partners to publicly share this data, this model is updated regularly and is the tool the federal government is using when determining resource allocations on a national level. This model predicts our peak resource utilization to occur around June 11, assuming our mitigation strategies are lifted at the end of the current Stay Home, Stay Healthy, Stay Connected order on April 30th. Given that our goal was to reduce transmission of COVID-19, if this model holds true, this later peak would reflect the success of those mitigation strategies. Its projections, even with the mitigation strategies lifted, predict that our current resources, including inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators, will meet a healthcare surge due to COVID-19. This model appears the most realistic and the predictions are reassuring.

As you can see, the model projections vary widely and are highly sensitive to our mitigation strategies. All of our efforts to date have decreased the transmission of COVID-19 in our community and helped our healthcare system increase resource capacity to meet Arizona’s healthcare needs. While most of the models show that we currently have the capacity to meet the healthcare demands for Arizona, it is the responsibility of public health to plan for the worst-case scenario. We want to make sure every Arizonan can access the level of care they need at the time they need it. This is why we are still working on developing plans for alternate care sites, such as the one at St. Luke’s, and facilitating the Arizona Surge Line to help coordinate transfers of patients to prevent surge at any one hospital. As the data evolves, so will our plans. While the models may try to predict what lies ahead, they are simply predictions. Moving forward, the best course of action is to continue using all of our real-time, Arizona specific data to assess the health of our healthcare system and evaluate the trend of our cases to make decisions that are best for Arizona.

* These electronic models may change by day, so the data presented on the website may not match the numbers posted in this blog.

Is that all perfectly clear? Why would you believe any of these models or make the Governor “Dicey” decision to continue strangling small businesses and prolonging lethal side effects of his orders? Cancer, heart disease, stoke, suicide, overdose deaths: all these are on Ducey now. Notice the “public health” expert was completely silent on the side effects she knows to be associated with her prescription for Arizona. This Chamber of Commerce Republican is also destroying the life savings and livelihoods of Arizonans who barely hung on for 45 days, and who now will not have a chance to start clawing their way back out of a mountain of debts until May 16. “Returning Stronger” is a cynical joke, true only for his corporate and government pals, who despise the deplorable way Arizonans voted in 2016.

Here is a snapshot from the ADHS website, showing some of the broad scope of real public heath.

Note the emphasis on preventive care. That has been flushed down the memory hole by the woman most responsible for advocating for this proven life-saving strategy. All such appointments have been cancelled in the name of creating bed capacity for just one disease. Arizona women are now unknowingly suffering from breast cancer, while Arizona men have colon cancer growing beyond safe early treatment. I got word Friday that hospitals will soon report massive surges in deaths at home from people who should have come to the urgent care or ER, but were warned off by this reckless, cowardly governor and the doctor who is supposed to be looking out for all Arizonans.

See Governor Ducey‘s strained, resentful attempts to deflect responsibility for picking and choosing kinds of business he puts his boot on. It is all about science, he keeps saying, pointing to the very woman who published what you read above and who has failed at every turn to warn of the known lethal side effects, even though she is in charge of all of public health for the state of Arizona’s. And it gets worse.

The Maricopa County Treasurer, a small-government conservative Republican, has been raising the alarm for a month that property tax bills were due across the state on May 1. He called on Governor Ducey and the Republican-controlled state legislature to pass emergency relief. They failed to do so, even as Ducey postured against evictions and claimed to be guided only by science.* The legislature could have met to save Arizonans from tax bills they cannot now afford to pay, but that would have made them also own Governor Dicey’s decisions on whose necks he kept the government boot. President Trump plans to visit Arizona in a week, which will drop him in the middle of the mess.

The Paycheck Protection Program, celebrated by President Trump, is a marvel of government efficiency, and only a bucket of water thrown on a house fire. The sheer scale of small business, repeatedly invoked by President Trump, makes any government bailout only a garden hose to the water main needed to meet all the entrepreneurs’ bills. In this situation, with the obvious junk science and patent medicine being peddled by Arizona’s doctor, Governor Ducey is busy kicking the rungs out of the ladder between his Chamber of Commerce pals and the men and women who are the true heart of Arizona’s economy. He has even refused to use the state rainy day fund to help small businesses, to give even a bit of help to those whose lives he is destroying. Once again, the Republicans who control the legislature are MIA, cowering in the hope that blame will not attach to them.

This will not end well for President Trump, Republicans, or Arizonans unless something changes very soon.


* Press Release
Tax Deadline Update

I’m extremely disappointed to report despite all our efforts to request to extend the delinquency date to pay 2019 property taxes, no action has taken place. Senate President Karen Fann expressed support at first, and although many legislators have enthusiastically voiced their support, there doesn’t appear to be any progress. There has been no response from House Speaker Rusty Bowers or from Governor Doug Ducey.

I will continue to fight to get relief for homeowners including an extension and/or waiver. However, if the Legislature and the Governor do not extend the deadline and if you are unable to pay the balance of 2019 property taxes by May 1st at 5:00pm, here is a suggestion for you to make your own one-month extension: If you pay late, you will incur an interest penalty. We suggest you pay on the last business day of the month, because whether you pay May 2nd or May 29th, the interest amount is the same.

Regrettably, there is no other relief County Treasurers can provide for homeowners; I am restricted by law. Only the Legislature can change the law and that seems unlikely.

Additionally, after consultation with the County Attorney’s Office, I have determined there is a legal way to provide some relief to some taxpayers. ARS 42-18056 G gives County Treasurers the authority to “enter into a payment plan agreement” with business personal property taxpayers who become delinquent on their taxes of more than $1000. Those qualifying businesses will receive a letter explaining what action to take.

I wish you all well and please stay safe.

With great respect,
Royce T. Flora
Maricopa County Treasurer

Senate President Karen Fann 602-926-5874
Speaker of the House Rusty Bowers 602-926-3128
Governor Doug Ducey 602-542-4331
Maricopa County Treasurer’s Office 602-506-8511

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There are 48 comments.

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  1. RightAngles Member

    “As you can see, the model projections vary widely”

    Yeah, actually we can see that. Which is why we don’t see how these people can base anything on them. They can be made to say whatever you want them to say, and to justify whatever measures you want them to.

    • #1
    • May 1, 2020, at 3:55 PM PDT
    • 16 likes
  2. Muleskinner, Weasel Wrangler Member

    Analysis paralysis? 

    • #2
    • May 1, 2020, at 4:22 PM PDT
    • 9 likes
  3. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown

    Muleskinner, Weasel Wrangler (View Comment):

    Analysis paralysis?

    Precisely.

    • #3
    • May 1, 2020, at 4:45 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  4. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown

    RightAngles (View Comment):

    “As you can see, the model projections vary widely”

    Yeah, actually we can see that. Which is why we don’t see how these people can base anything on them. They can be made to say whatever you want them to say, and to justify whatever measures you want them to.

    And not one reporter, at the state or local level has been asking the death versus death, life versus life, question. Not a single one has driven this point home or demanded answers.

    • #4
    • May 1, 2020, at 4:48 PM PDT
    • 11 likes
  5. Jim McConnell Member
    Jim McConnell Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Concerning the “models and projections” that all  the experts have come up with to date; we had a term for that sort of precision when I was in the army 60 years ago. Back then we called it a Wild A** Guess (or simply WAG), and it was just as accurate, if not more so, than what we are seeing now.

    • #5
    • May 1, 2020, at 4:52 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  6. Rodin Member

    (sigh)

    • #6
    • May 1, 2020, at 5:01 PM PDT
    • 9 likes
  7. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    I agree all the models have greatly overestimated everything in Arizona, read that same verbiage you posted and can’t make any sense out of it. Follow the state and Maricopa data daily – there is still quite a lot of capacity available and numbers have been stable in terms of use for three weeks – the only area in crisis mode is Navajo Nation in the northeast.

    The state has loosened the criteria for Covid testing and are making a big testing push the next three Saturdays so we will see an upsurge in cases but that’s simply confirming what we already know – there are more cases than are confirmed to date because of limited testing. That’s why I follow the new hospitalization data instead and for about the last ten days Maricopa County has been averaging about 15 new Covid hospitalizations a day for a population of 4.5 million. The problem in Maricopa are the long-term care and assisted living facilities – about 60% of all county fatalities are there, and in the last week it’s running more than 70% of the daily deaths.

    While the Governor’s order extends the existing order until May 16, retail stores can open with curbside pickup on May 4 and instore service on May 8. 

     

    • #7
    • May 1, 2020, at 5:38 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  8. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    Clifford A. Brown: COVIDActNow.org model

    With a name like that, the website is clearly propaganda. I don’t trust their models anymore than the BS. climate models. 

    • #8
    • May 1, 2020, at 6:08 PM PDT
    • 9 likes
  9. Full Size Tabby Member

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    Clifford A. Brown: COVIDActNow.org model

    With a name like that, the website is clearly propaganda. I don’t trust their models anymore than the BS. climate models.

    That name does rather caution for skepticism about anything the site says, doesn’t it. 

    • #9
    • May 1, 2020, at 7:27 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  10. CarolJoy, Above Top Secret Coolidge

    Your essay points out that:

    Last week, our federal partners from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR), and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) shared the modeling they had built for Arizona based on projection formulas developed by the Johns Hopkins University.

    Johns Hopkins is an institution that has received over 1.2 billions of dollars in donations, from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation so that when some issue like COVID arises, the scientists and researchers at JH can ensure that they are the ones who help dictate the modeling which determines the protocols for the entities like the Arizona state government. That way the exact needs of Bill Gates will be met in terms of what his business models involve.

    Meanwhile it is being stated that not a single lupus patient or a single rheumatoid arthritis patient who takes hydroxychloroquine on a daily basis has died from COVID 19. And that any COVID cases that someone in either group of patients has contracted has not become a serious COVID case.

    So why by all that is holy has no one woken up and given all these “professional health experts” a kick in the booty and put them out of work. The fact that this anti malarial works is being proven on a daily basis. the tests that are occurring in New York are all being done under the direction of Bill Gates who has deliberately made it impossible for HCQ to appear as important a treatment as it is. (This is due to how the “control” treatment used in the studies is the administration of high doses of Vitamin C. Since Vitamin C is also a decent treatment for COVID, HCQ will not look as impressive as it normally would, if the control was not a competing substance.)

    So much is being done so that Gates will be ensured the ability to administer his vaccine for COVID into the bodies of every American, at a gross of at least 132 billions of dollars. (All 330 millions of Americans times $ 400 a jab.) The fact that COVID 19 has been shown to mutate means that Gates’ vaccine will lack any decent rating of efficacy. This means that the overwhelming efforts of all of Gates’ acolytes to prevent HCQ is even more evil than can be imagined.

    • #10
    • May 1, 2020, at 9:54 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  11. Mendel Member
    Mendel Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Just looking at the length and incoherence of this blog post drives home a point that should be glaringly obvious by now: the models aren’t helping us one bit.

    Given the large number of models and their varying predictions, we can be fairly confident that at least one of them is actually fairly accurate, in the same way that having enough people at a roulette table means that one of them will probably choose the right number. But unfortunately, we won’t know which of the models is the winner until it’s too late.

    That’s why the best scientific strategy for deciding when/how to re-open is not based on models but on data and resources currently on the ground:

    How much spare capacity/surge capacity does a jurisdiction have?

    What percentage of the population can be tested at a given time?

    How many known active cases are there currently, and what is the trend?

    We now have enough empirical data from the US and elsewhere that we don’t need such speculative epidemiological models in order to make clear decisions. Instead, policymakers can use the experience from previous outbreaks to gauge what level of case numbers/case growth would overwhelm the current capacity in a given jurisdiction, and then use the available testing resources as a tripwire to detect such trends early and intervene before the point of no return.

    • #11
    • May 2, 2020, at 1:38 AM PDT
    • 15 likes
  12. Vectorman Thatcher

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):

    Meanwhile it is being stated that not a single lupus patient or a single rheumatoid arthritis patient who takes hydroxychloroquine on a daily basis has died from COVID 19. And that any COVID cases either group of patients has contracted has not become a serious COVID case.

    So why by all that is holy has no one woken up and given all these “professional health experts” a kick in the booty and put them out of work. The fact that this anti malarial works is being proven on a daily basis. the tests that are occurring in New York are all being done under the direction of Bill gates who has deliberately made it impossible for HCQ to appear as important a treatment as it is. (Due to how the “control” treatment used in the studies is the administration of high doses of Vitamin C. Since Vitamin C is also a decent treatment for COVID, HCQ will not look as impressive as it normally would, if the control was not a competing substance.)

    • #12
    • May 2, 2020, at 5:31 AM PDT
    • 7 likes
  13. Rodin Member

    Mendel (View Comment):

    the best scientific strategy for deciding when/how to re-open is not based on models but on data and resources currently on the ground:

    How much spare capacity/surge capacity does a jurisdiction have?

    What percentage of the population can be tested at a given time?

    How many known active cases are there currently, and what is the trend?

    We now have enough empirical data from the US and elsewhere that we don’t need such speculative epidemiological models in order to make clear decisions.

    I would add a fourth question: How many active cases are hospitalized?

    In my county of 1.1M the greatest number of active cases that were hospitalized at one time was 44. That is not a burden on our local health care system and it (along with death statistics — to the extent properly designated as COVID-19 deaths) is the best indicator of severity. And yet only case counts get featured in the media, which inevitably rise quickly the faster that testing is deployed even if it says nothing about the severity of the illness. So quick response to testing demands have produced a rapid rise in case count. Yes, this is a wide-spread infection, and yes, vulnerable people need to protect themselves (or when housed in nursing homes and assisted living facilities by others). But this is now not to be understood as a health care crisis justifying broad population control.

    • #13
    • May 2, 2020, at 7:52 AM PDT
    • 7 likes
  14. Full Size Tabby Member

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):

    the best scientific strategy for deciding when/how to re-open is not based on models but on data and resources currently on the ground:

    How much spare capacity/surge capacity does a jurisdiction have?

    What percentage of the population can be tested at a given time?

    How many known active cases are there currently, and what is the trend?

    We now have enough empirical data from the US and elsewhere that we don’t need such speculative epidemiological models in order to make clear decisions.

    I would add a fourth question: How many active cases are hospitalized?

    In my county of 1.1M the greatest number of active cases that were hospitalized at one time was 44. That is not a burden on our local health care system and it (along with death statistics — to the extent properly designated as COVID-19 deaths) is the best indicator of severity. And yet only case counts get featured in the media, which inevitably rise quickly the faster that testing is deployed even if it says nothing about the severity of the illness. So quick response to testing demands have produced a rapid rise in case count. Yes, this is a wide-spread infection, and yes, vulnerable people need to protect themselves (or when housed in nursing homes and assisted living facilities by others). But this is now not to be understood as a health care crisis justifying broad population control.

    Hospitalizations is a number I too would find useful, but is missing from our local data. 
    I infer from other local information that our county has had no hospitalizations.

    • #14
    • May 2, 2020, at 1:23 PM PDT
    • 7 likes
  15. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):

    the best scientific strategy for deciding when/how to re-open is not based on models but on data and resources currently on the ground:

    How much spare capacity/surge capacity does a jurisdiction have?

    What percentage of the population can be tested at a given time?

    How many known active cases are there currently, and what is the trend?

    We now have enough empirical data from the US and elsewhere that we don’t need such speculative epidemiological models in order to make clear decisions.

    I would add a fourth question: How many active cases are hospitalized?

    In my county of 1.1M the greatest number of active cases that were hospitalized at one time was 44. That is not a burden on our local health care system and it (along with death statistics — to the extent properly designated as COVID-19 deaths) is the best indicator of severity. And yet only case counts get featured in the media, which inevitably rise quickly the faster that testing is deployed even if it says nothing about the severity of the illness. So quick response to testing demands have produced a rapid rise in case count. Yes, this is a wide-spread infection, and yes, vulnerable people need to protect themselves (or when housed in nursing homes and assisted living facilities by others). But this is now not to be understood as a health care crisis justifying broad population control.

    Hospitalizations is a number I too would find useful, but is missing from our local data.
    I infer from other local information that our county has had no hospitalizations.

    AZ actually has good data reporting and presentation on hospitals and COVID-19.

    See that portion of the ADHS data dashboard.

    • #15
    • May 2, 2020, at 2:54 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  16. Jim McConnell Member
    Jim McConnell Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I just checked the numbers on Worldometer, and in Oregon the number of COVID-19 deaths per 1M people is 25. In New York State it is 525, yet we are still operating under the same lockdown protocol. It makes no sense unless it is the product of either inertia or the authorities clinging to the power they have found by exploiting the crisis. 

    • #16
    • May 2, 2020, at 2:57 PM PDT
    • 12 likes
  17. CarolJoy, Above Top Secret Coolidge

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):

    the best scientific strategy for deciding when/how to re-open is not based on models but on data and resources currently on the ground:

    How much spare capacity/surge capacity does a jurisdiction have?

    What percentage of the population can be tested at a given time?

    How many known active cases are there currently, and what is the trend?

    We now have enough empirical data from the US and elsewhere that we don’t need such speculative epidemiological models in order to make clear decisions.

    I would add a fourth question: How many active cases are hospitalized?

    In my county of 1.1M the greatest number of active cases that were hospitalized at one time was 44. That is not a burden on our local health care system and it (along with death statistics — to the extent properly designated as COVID-19 deaths) is the best indicator of severity. And yet only case counts get featured in the media, which inevitably rise quickly the faster that testing is deployed even if it says nothing about the severity of the illness. So quick response to testing demands have produced a rapid rise in case count. Yes, this is a wide-spread infection, and yes, vulnerable people need to protect themselves (or when housed in nursing homes and assisted living facilities by others). But this is now not to be understood as a health care crisis justifying broad population control.

    The state of Nevada is said to have “peaked” per numbers of COVID cases on April 7th with Calif following one week later. Nevada had utilized fewer than 50 ventilators and had fewer than 500 deaths. So much for the “COVID patients will swamp the medical facilities” theory.

    • #17
    • May 2, 2020, at 3:02 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  18. Al French of Damascus Moderator

    Jim McConnell (View Comment):

    I just checked the numbers on Worldometer, and in Oregon the number of COVID-19 deaths per 1M people is 25. In New York State it is 525, yet we are still operating under the same lockdown protocol. It makes no sense unless it is the product of either inertia or the authorities clinging to the power they have found by exploiting the crisis.

    Of the 109 deaths in Oregon, one was a person without underlying health conditions. One.

    • #18
    • May 2, 2020, at 3:18 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  19. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):
    Meanwhile it is being stated that not a single lupus patient or a single rheumatoid arthritis patient who takes hydroxychloroquine on a daily basis has died from COVID 19. And that any COVID cases that someone in either group of patients has contracted has not become a serious COVID case.

    I understand there have been 20 cases of positive tests with no severe case and no deaths. The numbers world wide are about 60,000 patients, one of whom is my wife.

    • #19
    • May 2, 2020, at 3:49 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  20. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    I have been very disappointed with Ducey and his cave to the nanny staters. The best I can say for him is that he is not Newsom.

    • #20
    • May 2, 2020, at 3:52 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  21. Rodin Member

    Full Size Tabby (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):

    the best scientific strategy for deciding when/how to re-open is not based on models but on data and resources currently on the ground:

    How much spare capacity/surge capacity does a jurisdiction have?

    What percentage of the population can be tested at a given time?

    How many known active cases are there currently, and what is the trend?

    We now have enough empirical data from the US and elsewhere that we don’t need such speculative epidemiological models in order to make clear decisions.

    I would add a fourth question: How many active cases are hospitalized?

    In my county of 1.1M the greatest number of active cases that were hospitalized at one time was 44. That is not a burden on our local health care system and it (along with death statistics — to the extent properly designated as COVID-19 deaths) is the best indicator of severity. And yet only case counts get featured in the media, which inevitably rise quickly the faster that testing is deployed even if it says nothing about the severity of the illness. So quick response to testing demands have produced a rapid rise in case count. Yes, this is a wide-spread infection, and yes, vulnerable people need to protect themselves (or when housed in nursing homes and assisted living facilities by others). But this is now not to be understood as a health care crisis justifying broad population control.

    Hospitalizations is a number I too would find useful, but is missing from our local data.
    I infer from other local information that our county has had no hospitalizations.

    I went to your county’s health department website and they had a listing of COVID-19 cases and their status. All of the active cases are listed as “self-monitoring” which highly suggests they are not hospitalized.

    • #21
    • May 2, 2020, at 4:09 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  22. Headedwest Coolidge

    Mendel (View Comment):

    Given the large number of models and their varying predictions, we can be fairly confident that at least one of them is actually fairly accurate, in the same way that having enough people at a roulette table means that one of them will probably choose the right number. But unfortunately, we won’t know which of the models is the winner until it’s too late.

    I would argue that a model that accidentally predicts the outcome is not accurate. It is lucky.

    • #22
    • May 2, 2020, at 4:10 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  23. Rodin Member

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    AZ actually has good data reporting and presentation on hospitals and COVID-19.

    See that portion of the ADHS data dashboard.

    Yes, that is good data. The AZ high was 51, just 7 cases more than the high in my county. Now you’re down to 2. Sure glad the Governor is being so cautious, not.

    • #23
    • May 2, 2020, at 4:13 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  24. Buckpasser Member
    Buckpasser Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    I have been very disappointed with Ducey and his cave to the nanny staters. The best I can say for him is that he is not Newsom.

    Having been a resident of both states for the past 46 years it’s apparent that being so close to California has caused Arizona to contract too much of what California is suffering from.

    • #24
    • May 2, 2020, at 4:44 PM PDT
    • 9 likes
  25. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    Buckpasser (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    I have been very disappointed with Ducey and his cave to the nanny staters. The best I can say for him is that he is not Newsom.

    Having been a resident of both states for the past 46 years it’s apparent that being so close to California has caused Arizona to contract too much of what California is suffering from.

    I think most of the refugees, like me, are fleeing the California commies. I have a couple of lefty children but they are staying there.

    • #25
    • May 2, 2020, at 4:51 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  26. The Reticulator Member

    Buckpasser (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    I have been very disappointed with Ducey and his cave to the nanny staters. The best I can say for him is that he is not Newsom.

    Having been a resident of both states for the past 46 years it’s apparent that being so close to California has caused Arizona to contract too much of what California is suffering from.

    Maybe the people who study infectious diseases need to get on this.

    • #26
    • May 2, 2020, at 7:44 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  27. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    Jim McConnell (View Comment):

    I just checked the numbers on Worldometer, and in Oregon the number of COVID-19 deaths per 1M people is 25. In New York State it is 525, yet we are still operating under the same lockdown protocol. It makes no sense unless it is the product of either inertia or the authorities clinging to the power they have found by exploiting the crisis.

    NYC skews US death numbers

    Take out NY, NJ, CT and US numbers look ‘trivial’

     

    • #27
    • May 2, 2020, at 10:06 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  28. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):
    Meanwhile it is being stated that not a single lupus patient or a single rheumatoid arthritis patient who takes hydroxychloroquine on a daily basis has died from COVID 19. And that any COVID cases that someone in either group of patients has contracted has not become a serious COVID case.

    I understand there have been 20 cases of positive tests with no severe case and no deaths. The numbers world wide are about 60,000 patients, one of whom is my wife.

    I have been stating that zero lupus and RA patients have tested positive.

    20/60000 = .033%

    99.7% covers 6 sigma (3 standard deviations above and below the median)

    I am willing to bet those 20 positive cases are false positives or clerical errors or another underlying co-morbidity such as high BMI fraud

    either lupus or RA makes one ‘immune’ to covid-19 or HCQ has some prophylactic value?

    • #28
    • May 2, 2020, at 10:10 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  29. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):
    Meanwhile it is being stated that not a single lupus patient or a single rheumatoid arthritis patient who takes hydroxychloroquine on a daily basis has died from COVID 19. And that any COVID cases that someone in either group of patients has contracted has not become a serious COVID case.

    I understand there have been 20 cases of positive tests with no severe case and no deaths. The numbers world wide are about 60,000 patients, one of whom is my wife.

    I have been stating that zero lupus and RA patients have tested positive.

    20/60000 = .033%

    99.7% covers 6 sigma (3 standard deviations above and below the median)

    I am willing to bet those 20 positive cases are false positives or clerical errors or another underlying co-morbidity such as high BMI fraud

    either lupus or RA makes one ‘immune’ to covid-19 or HCQ has some prophylactic value?

    The latter, obviously. My wife also has “High IgE immunodeficiency,” so we are extra careful.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27514600

     

    • #29
    • May 3, 2020, at 1:04 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  30. Stad Thatcher

    ?Since December 2019, when we first heard about cases of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, the Arizona public health system has been closely monitoring COVID-19 on an international, national, and local level.”

    Wait a minute . . . is Arizona saying they knew about the coronavirus in December 2019 and didn’t warn the rest of us? Or Trump?

    • #30
    • May 3, 2020, at 5:07 AM PDT
    • 5 likes