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Is Barack Obama Losing African-American Support?
Here is a statistic that will warm the cockles of your heart. Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic outfit, has found in its most recent poll that African-Americans in North Carolina are drifting towards Mitt Romney. In 2008, Barack Obama received ninety-five percent of the black vote in that state, and John McCain garnered a measly five percent. In this poll, Obama gets seventy-six percent and Romney gets twenty percent.
This may, of course, be a fluke, as some of the folks at PPP suspect. Or it may have to do with the state of the economy, as Glenn Reynolds intimates. I am inclined, however, to suspect the unthinkable – that it has to do with Obama’s embrace of gay marriage in the immediate aftermath of the referendum on the subject held in – yes, you guessed it!—North Carolina.
Barack Obama is part African and part Caucasian. But he is not African-American in the ordinary sense in which the category is used. He is not descended from those who were slaves on this continent. Moreover, he was not brought up within the African-American cultural milieu. My suspicion is that his hold on the African-American vote is quite tenuous. He has more in common culturally with ivy-league-educated folks like yours truly than he does with evangelical Christians of color, and they sense this fact. He may be wrong in supposing that he can fully embrace the agenda of our intellectual elite and still mesmerize African-American voters.
If so, in a completely counter-intuitive fashion, this just might be the year in which, for the first time in living memory, the Republicans begin to garner a respectable share of the African-American vote. Wouldn’t that be perplexing?
Published in General
The NAACP has not represented ordinary African-Americans for a very long time. It is a lobby for the black elite. You have not seen black ministers in any number lining up behind Obama’s position. ·8 minutes ago
The NAACP has not represented ordinary African-Americans for a very long time. It is a lobby for attacking conservatives. You have not seen black ministers in any number lining up behind Obama’s position.
There. Fixed that for ya, Professor. :) ·2 minutes ago
You improved it. ·1 minute ago
I’m honored you think so, Professor.
I’ve long thought of “NAACP” as an acronym for National Association for Attacking Conservative People, in my own head, at least.
To “FreeWiFi’s,” earlier comment regarding Black Culture, I believe it can and will play a role in the November vote. The community continues to take a dim view of the lifestyle. By the Way, Thomas Sowell’s book, “Black Rednecks, White Liberals,” completely changed the way I looked at American culture, world history and the nature of man.
“He has more in common culturally with ivy-league-educated folks like yours truly than he does with evangelical Christians of color, and they sense this fact.”
Is that point made stronger if it reads: “He has more in common with elite prep school, ivy-league educated folks . . .” That he was already on the inside track, and among the old guard, in high school puts an exclamation point on it.
And I know of at least one prominent African American minister who makes a big deal about gay marriage (or perhaps we should call it gay mirage, since it won’t work), and the other social issues.
Is that point made stronger if it reads: “He has more in common with elite prep school, ivy-league educated folks . . .” That he was already on the inside track, and among the old guard, in high school puts an exclamation point on it.·3 minutes ago
It is made stronger, but I did not go to prep school — so I could not play that card.
My bet, for what it is worth, is that there will soon be other polls confirming the PPP findings for North Carolina. Whether what is true for NC will be true elsewhere I do not know.
I can’t speak for all of North Carolina, but in Durham, the black vote will once again be monolithic in support of the democrat. The poverty caused by Obama’s policies will be of no more importance to “the community” than the previous poverty cause by FDR’s policies. Obama says the right things. Remember that a significantly higher percentage of black Americans are employed by state and local governments than other ethnic groups.
Is that point made stronger if it reads: “He has more in common with elite prep school, ivy-league educated folks . . .” That he was already on the inside track, and among the old guard, in high school puts an exclamation point on it.·3 minutes ago
It is made stronger, but I did not go to prep school — so I could not play that card.
My bet, for what it is worth, is that there will soon be other polls confirming the PPP findings for North Carolina. Whether what is true for NC will be true elsewhere I do not know. ·11 minutes ago
Fair point, but there’s no need to be self-referential.
Were Romney to nominate Powell, and were he to accept, it would really complicate things for Obama. But I surely don’t trust Powell to take on the adminitrative state.
Fair point, but there’s no need to be self-referential.
Were Romney to nominate Powell, and were he to accept, it would really complicate things for Obama. But I surely don’t trust Powell to take on the adminitrative state. ·3 minutes ago
Wanna truly scare the pants off Obama?
Romney-Sowell 2012!
Let’s not overlook his address to the Congressional Black Caucus – dropping his g’s in his best pose of down-home-ness and berating the CBC to “stop complainin’, stop cryin'” or some such. I seem to recall that performance went over like a lead balloon. Maxine Waters was not amused, and let it be known publicly. He has done nothing for American Blacks other than to have the notable ones over to the White House to entertain him. He’s as see-through as cellophane, regardless of whether you’re white or black. Romney may not be loved, but the Obama train wreck has got to go. Anyone with eyes can see that.
Dr. Sowell just can’t be beat, and “Black Rednecks, White Liberals” did the same for me. Don’t forget to read Shelby Steele’s “White Guilt”. Another work of genius.
Dr. Sowell just can’t be beat, and “Black Rednecks, White Liberals” did the same for me. Don’t forget to read Shelby Steele’s “White Guilt”. Another work of genius. ·1 minute ago
(sigh) Two more books for the reading pile. Maybe by 3012 I’ll be caught up.
Romney should take advantage of any rumblings like this and stage a Solyndra-like moment at any of the private schools in Washington DC where poor black students were almost denied tuition because the President tried to kill it in favor of teachers unions. One need only to watch “Waiting for Superman” once to understand the level of desperation black and Hispanic parents feel toward their children’s education. A Candidate Romney championing school choice and pointing out the sheer hypocrisy of President Obama with regard to his own daughters’ education would at least make people stop and think. Maybe then he could break the 90% black vote barrier.
Even if Eric Holder trouble/Obamacare thrown out/Jorge Martin’s release/Illinois default are all portrayed as racist events and Obama receives the same number of black votes as he did in 2008 – it will still not be enough votes for a 2nd term or to retake the House.
Tell Demetri that Barry will have plenty of flexibility after the election.
I agree with Ann Coulter that courting minorities is self-defeating, though I don’t take the sentiment as far as she does (I think we’ll have an easier time in 5 or 10 years). Bush tried and failed.
Republicans are fundamentally a middle-income coalition, and the middle classes among minorities are still too small for us to capture any significant share of their votes. That will change in the future, but for now the Democratic strategy of uniting the rich and the poor against the middle class (which both hate) will continue to capture the lion’s share of the minority vote.
Tell Demetri that Barry will have plenty of flexibility after the election. ·22 minutes ago
That was the point of Trayvon Martin, remember? Energize African Americans over a race issue, to increase turnout. To succeed, they’ll have to bring the issue up again before the election, though I don’t know how–have the Justice Department declare Zimmerman “innocent,” or perhaps pressure Florida to give an innocent verdict before the election?
Romney did something like this when he went to one of the worst neighborhood schools in Philly to talk about vouchers and economic opportunity. He was met with throngs of black protesters – people who live in poverty and absolute squalor, and have lived that way for generations now, yet turned out in droves to protest any attack on their beloved Barack.
Mirror mirror on the wall
Who’s the fairest of them all?
Uh-oh!
Fair point, but there’s no need to be self-referential.
Were Romney to nominate Powell, and were he to accept, it would really complicate things for Obama. But I surely don’t trust Powell to take on the adminitrative state. ·3 minutes ago
Wanna truly scare the pants off Obama?
Romney-Sowell 2012! ·15 hours ago
I would quit my job, drop everything, and join his campaign yesterday.
Nate Silver gives a robust rebuttal to this claim here. I think that he ought to allow for greater disaffection in NC than elsewhere, but it seems clear that African Americans are not experiencing a sea change in their views of Obama.
You’ve got to understand a number of things about PPP polls. Dean Debnam is the head of PPP and has PACs that are geared towards races in North Carolina. He needs those PACs funded (because he makes money off of them). If the presidential race in North Carolina is no longer in question, he will not receive money for his PACs. So North Carolina needs to be close whether it is or not.
Next, PPP polls are self-reporting. This is pretty well known. So white Republicans can identify as black Democrats and no one will know any different. PPP also polls continuously so you can be pretty sure if you’re polled in NC, it’s a PPP poll. And that is pretty well known. It is to Debnam’s benefit to show a large chunk of African-Americans swinging Romney’s way because that should be one of the easiest parts of the puzzle to put back together. So feed him the money to do it.
When Renee Elmers was running in 2010, the PPP polls were showing her receiving 15% of the African-American vote. She got maybe 5%. So grain of salt for these polls.