Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Will History Judge the Lockdown the Great Blunder of American History?

 

This is not easy to write and I know it will advance an opinion that does not find favor in all quarters of the center-right we represent here on Ricochet, but I am more and more convinced that the path we are now on, even considering the perhaps far-too-late course corrections announced in the past few days, may go down in history as the greatest single error of judgment in our history.

I started coming to this conviction some time ago, as shown by my post of a little over two weeks ago, entitled “This Is Tearing My Heart Out!”: Rush’s Lament- and Mine”, in which I reviewed studies and analyses decrying the fact that the decisions of the President and his task force were being made almost wholly on the basis of scientific data, with little consideration being given to the horrendous impact this is having on the economy and the workers who make it — or, dare I put it more accurately, made it — the greatest economy the world has ever seen.

In the intervening weeks, more and more voices have been heard, not only with regard to the purely economic impact of this “insane overreaction,” as phrased by Roger Kimball in several pieces over the last few weeks, but also scientific and medical experts taking directly opposing views from those of the task force team and questioning the very basis of their findings which led us to this point (of no return?). Several of those studies are reviewed and linked in Kimball’s piece entitled “A Deadly If Dutiful Deference”, and include the now well-known “Santa Clara Study” and an opinion piece written by several medical doctors titled “Moving the Goal Posts-Four Reasons It Is Safe to Reopen America.” 

Kimball notes the medical doctors’ main opinions and concludes with an observation, with which I agree 100%, of what we have done to ourselves, based on consistently erroneous models and forecasts:

We have often been presented with a false dichotomy between saving the economy and saving lives. This is a false dichotomy because, as Geach points out, “the state of our economy is not just a monetary risk, it is a health risk.” For one thing, “when people lose their jobs, they typically lose their health insurance.” He notes that there were more than 10,000 “economic suicides” as a result of the 2008 recession. There is also a spike in cancer deaths, drug abuse, domestic violence, and other pathologies.

The most awesome toll of this new coronavirus is not the number of lives it has claimed—tragic though the loss of every life is—but rather the stupendous damage we have done to ourselves. The American public has been dutiful to the point of self-harm in heeding the injunctions of the people who manage their lives and livelihoods. I suspect that that deference is evaporating. I regard that as a good thing, for it means that neither the instinct for self-preservation nor the taste for liberty has been entirely bred out of the body politic.

Similar concerns have been expressed in discussions by the eminent scholar Victor Davis Hanson in which he notes the steady erosion of civil liberties by the actions of little tyrants, referred to as “mewling Mussolinis” by Kurt Schlichter, such as the disgusting Governor of Michigan forbidding the sale of garden supplies and seeds (there must be a reason in there somewhere) and the frighteningly arrogant ignorance of the Governor of New Jersey who proclaimed that taking the Bill of Rights into consideration in his policy determinations was “above his pay grade.” These can be found here and here.

However, a piece from one of the finest and most incisive minds of our day, in my more and more humble opinion, Heather MacDonald, has possibly put these concerns in the boldest relief as illustrated clearly by the title itself: “The Deadly Costs of Extended Shutdown Orders.” I cannot recommend it highly enough and it should be read in its entirety, but here follows a few of the highlights. She poses a few questions which should be publicly addressed by Governors extending their orders into May and even beyond:

More than a dozen governors extended their economic shutdown orders recently into May and beyond. Those officials should have publicly addressed the following questions first:

  • How many coronavirus deaths do you expect to avert by the shut-down extension?
  • What will your state’s economy look like after another month of enforced stasis?
  • How many workers will have lost their jobs?
  • How many businesses will have closed for good?
  • How many of your state’s young residents, seeking employment for the first time, will be unable to find it?

Instead, the announcements of the prolonged shutdown were representative of government decision-making during the coronavirus crisis: opaque, lacking in criteria for measuring success and failure, and bereft of any attempt to measure the benefits of mitigating one particular health problem against the costs—including other health problems.

After a painstaking analysis of the numbers in New York State, as opposed to the New York City area, which graphically illustrated how unfair the “one size fits all” approach of Governor Cuomo is to the rest of the State, she concludes:

The focus on saving “just one life” from the coronavirus, as Cuomo put it in March, to the exclusion of all other considerations likely will prove a catastrophic failure of policymaking. The devastation to individuals’ ability to flourish or even survive may soon become irreversible. Every scientific model used to justify these economic death sentences has been discredited. But even if those models were proven reliable, government decision-making must turn toward opening up. Officials must be made to justify, through a transparent analysis of costs and benefits, all further mandates to prevent people from working. Otherwise, there may be nothing recognizable as our economy to return to, with a resulting cost in human life and well-being that will match anything the coronavirus could inflict.

I end with the sadly requisite disclaimer that I bow to no one in my admiration for the President and Vice President in their roles in this crisis and my respect for the scientific experts upon whom they have placed almost total reliance in establishing the policy which got us to this place, with an emphasis on a respect for their specific roles as scientists, not policymakers or politicians answerable (theoretically, at least) to the voters who should ultimately decide the wisdom vel non of their actions.

My dissent has to do with my right under the Bill of Rights to say this has gone on far too long, and it needs to end now.

Respectfully submitted, Jim.

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  1. Steve C. Member

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):
    “may I please take the shovel from your hands!”.

    Do you mind if I steal this line?

    I have been saying, “Put The Shovel Down.”, for years. (I try to say it like Gene Wilder in Young Frankenstein, when he says Put The Candle Back!)

    But yours is fresh and disarming. 

    • #31
    • April 23, 2020, at 7:50 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  2. OldPhil Coolidge

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    the 40,000 deaths over the past month will continue (it’s actually closer to 50,000 now, and may have surpassed this — I haven’t checked today’s figures yet).

    Don’t forget a lot of doubt has been cast on the actual reason for some percentage of these deaths. But it’s likely that happens in a normal flu season, I guess.

    • #32
    • April 23, 2020, at 7:51 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  3. Steve C. Member

    D.A. Venters (View Comment):

    I think there’s a decent chance history will look favorably on the response to the virus. This is especially true if the governors, the president, and so on, are examined fairly – i.e. acknowledging the limited information they had when the crisis hit.

    I know I’ve said this on a couple of threads over the past couple of weeks, so my apologies for the repetition, but this disease has gone from being virtually non-existent in this country 2 1/2 months ago, to being the leading cause of death. And that’s with a month of lockdowns. That is an extreme challenge to leadership. The notion I see so often on this website that national leadership, the governors, or the health administrators didn’t give any thought to the economic damage is simply false. They all recognized the economic harm that was coming and that was heavily discussed from the early days of the crisis. A lot of that economic harm was coming regardless of what they did, of course, because people were going to change their behavior anyway, but it’s not like they ignored that side of things. Congress passed a 2 trillion effort to shore up the economy, for God’s sake. From what I can tell the governors of most every state are desperately trying to figure out how to get their economies opened back up without causing an uncontrollable spike in cases. That’s an immense challenge. To throw your hands up at this early stage and say, “They blew it. This is history’s greatest blunder” is ridiculous.

    Hear, hear.

     

    • #33
    • April 23, 2020, at 7:58 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  4. Hoyacon Member

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    . . .

    I’m not making that assumption. My point was to point out the rate of growth over the last month (unanswered above), and to ask whether that=any flu at any time. I’d say “no.”

    Also note that any modeling, no matter how flawed, has been geared to the first wave of infections/deaths. Let’s see what’s down the line. We already know about past flu’s. and the end result. We haven’t come close to the end of this virus.

    But what is the relevance of your point?

    Of course it’s not the flu, technically. The flu is a different kind of virus. But if the ultimate effect is about the same as the flu, it’s a reasonable comparison.

    I would expect that the 40,000 deaths in a month is much lower than the 1918 flu. According to this History.com site, 195,000 Americans died in October 1918. The total was 675,000 through 1920. Proportional to population, it was even worse that this indicates, as the population was around 103 million, less than a third of current population.

    The 1957-58 Asian flu killed 116,000 in the US, per the CDC, out of a population about half of the current population (about 175 million). The 1968 Hong Kong flu killed 100,000 in the US, per the CDC, out of a population of about 200 million (including little me!).

    I feel like I’m beating a dead horse here. It’s not really productive to get bogged down in flu comparisons. It is productive to counter the narrative that I see sometimes — not from you, Hoyacon, I don’t think — that anyone who ever compared COVID-19 to the flu is some sort of idiot, and we should never listen to such a person again about anything, ever. I don’t think that such an attitude is helpful at all.

    We don’t need to beat a dead horse so I’ll try to be succinct. My response has been directed towards your comment that those analogizing this to the flu will be proven right. I disagree, not in the least because that view “takes advantage” of the successful measure implemented to date. If the answer to the question isn’t pretty clear right now (and I think that it is), I believe that it will be before we’re done. We can revisit this at the appropriate time.

     

    • #34
    • April 23, 2020, at 8:06 PM PDT
    • Like
  5. Rodin Member

    I don’t know that this will be regarded on the greatest American blunder. That depends on events yet to occur. If this is the triumph of collectivism, then this would be the biggest blunder. But if somehow we can keep Trump in office and continue to push a minimal regulatory agenda and a strict constructionist judiciary, we might just survive this.

    • #35
    • April 23, 2020, at 8:22 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
  6. Architectus Coolidge

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    Mark, many estimates were off by an order of magnitude in the early days, in both directions. The ad hominem nature of your response suggests that you have no viable counter-arguments to Jim’s points. I think that you may actually have some such arguments, but I’d prefer to hear them, rather than hear a dismissal on the basis of some understandable errors made by people who are quite bright and worth listening to, even if they are not always right.

    I am responding. The Kimball article linked provides yet another example – he seizes upon the Santa Clara study like Jon Lovitz “yeah, that’s the ticket!” because it conforms with his ideological presets. Many people have made errors about this and I’ve no problem. What I do have a problem with is those on the Left and Right who stick with their ideological presets and ignore any evidence conflicting with those – people like Kimball. They made the mistake of thinking a virus had ideological properties just like they did. All of us, myself included, start with our “priors” including what we would like to happen to best conform with our core beliefs. The challenge in a situation like this is to make sure they do not become a default. You’ve done a good job with that in your posts, going where the evidence takes you. Kimball and others did not. That is the basis for my criticism.

    Another example – I’m sick of the Hydroxychloroquine Wars in which Trump haters and Trump lovers felt compelled to stake out their positions on the bona fides which I’m sure made them, as well as the President, happy because it made everything about Trump, obscuring an open-minded scientific question as well as discussions ignoring any other number of possible helpful therapies.

    Not much of an improvement, and a lot of projection going on here. Though you claim to want to get beyond “ideology”, you seem obsessed with labeling some as in the Trump-loving or Trump-hating fringes. Into which camp do you place Richard Epstein in order to defame him? Might be best, for all, if you just take their arguments on the merits, and not try to psychoanalyze their motives. 

    • #36
    • April 23, 2020, at 9:11 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  7. CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker Coolidge

    D.A. Venters (View Comment):

    I think there’s a decent chance history will look favorably on the response to the virus. This is especially true if the governors, the president, and so on, are examined fairly – i.e. acknowledging the limited information they had when the crisis hit.

    I know I’ve said this on a couple of threads over the past couple of weeks, so my apologies for the repetition, but this disease has gone from being virtually non-existent in this country 2 1/2 months ago, to being the leading cause of death. And that’s with a month of lockdowns. That is an extreme challenge to leadership. The notion I see so often on this website that national leadership, the governors, or the health administrators didn’t give any thought to the economic damage is simply false. They all recognized the economic harm that was coming and that was heavily discussed from the early days of the crisis. A lot of that economic harm was coming regardless of what they did, of course, because people were going to change their behavior anyway, but it’s not like they ignored that side of things. Congress passed a 2 trillion effort to shore up the economy, for God’s sake. From what I can tell the governors of most every state are desperately trying to figure out how to get their economies opened back up without causing an uncontrollable spike in cases. That’s an immense challenge. To throw your hands up at this early stage and say, “They blew it. This is history’s greatest blunder” is ridiculous.

    If the victories that the Communist-based DNC continue, you can very much believe that the historians some decades down the line will find the actions of governors in bowing to Bill Gates and to Fauci were exactly as it should be.

    The DNC’s biggest victory was this 2.2 trillion dollar CARES Act. Perhaps the most pernicious aspect of it is that it hands over large amounts of money to those hospitals and their administrators & their personnel who claim with lack of any type of scrutiny that their patients were COVID patients. And that the deaths were from COVID cases.

    Nurses on social media are claiming they’ re encouraged to fully “admit” that a patient in their care died due to COVID. Two weeks ago, we had a state senator from MN stating that he was sent a 7 page document that more or less forced his hand as far as how to categorize the deaths of patients in his care.

    The link to Dr Scott Jensen, state senator, is here: https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/health-care/item/35392-minn-state-senator-cdc-says-unconfirmed-cause-of-death-can-be-attributed-to-covid-19

    So with hospitals also getting anywhere from 19K to 300K dollars for admitting that a patient in their care is COVID, the #’s will continue to escalate. End of Pt One

    • #37
    • April 23, 2020, at 9:14 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  8. Architectus Coolidge

    Patrick McClure, Coffee Achiev… (View Comment):

    Were you not alive for bell bottoms and the election of Jimmy Carter?

    Seriously it is too early by several decades to know.

    I remember the Carter years, and we all knew at the time that it was a disaster. It does take time to understand how to compare it in historical context though.

    I recall that after Obama arrived, I thought “worst case, he’s another Carter”. Then, after a few years, I realized it was more accurate to say “best case, he’s only as bad as Carter”. Perspective… 

    • #38
    • April 23, 2020, at 9:20 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
  9. CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker Coolidge

    Part Two: Then with hospitals inclined to over report COVID, the continual spiking of numbers of COVID cases will allow the media, who at this point are really employees of Big Pharma, to influence the public that Big Bad COVID is not yet over with its deadly hold over our populace.

    Then we will continue to be told how we citizens must diligently and patriotically continue to shelter in place. After all, last week, we had Bill Gates himself saying that we’re now in the “acute phase” but then over the next 6 to 9 weeks, we might be allowed to go into a protracted “stay at home but have our jobs there for us to take up our time” situation.

    If this was a pandemic I would agree. But it is not. We know that now. We know that thanks to the independent study brought about by Stanford University researchers, which can be read here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

    Here is the interview on ABC with David Muir and Bill and Melinda Gates. Notice how well relaxed Bill Gates seems to be in his new position as emperor of the world.

    It is he and his henchman Fauci who’ re determining our lives right now. They’ re oblivious of the Stanford study that was about to be released as the Gates discuss “how this will unravel.” Both Bill and Melinda are happy to explain the way it works is this: We in the public are in the acute phase, but some 6 to 8 or 9 weeks in the future, it will ease slightly while the government prepares to test each and every one of us for whether we have been exposed to COVID, whether we have it and whether we could possibly contaminate others.

    Fauci has stated that perhaps family members will need to be separated so as not to expose one another.

    The juicy parts of the interview start at the 3 minute mark:

    And remember – how this works: Stanford has done a decent study which has mostly been ignored by the lame stream, Big
    Pharma owned media. So it follows that Johns Hopkins, so well endowed by its 1.2 billions of dollars received from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, most certainly will put out a ‘new better study’ that will tell us how pandemic the illness is.

    And that newer study will get plenty of press from the Major Media people.

    • #39
    • April 23, 2020, at 9:23 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  10. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    Architectus (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    Mark, many estimates were off by an order of magnitude in the early days, in both directions. The ad hominem nature of your response suggests that you have no viable counter-arguments to Jim’s points. I think that you may actually have some such arguments, but I’d prefer to hear them, rather than hear a dismissal on the basis of some understandable errors made by people who are quite bright and worth listening to, even if they are not always right.

    I am responding. The Kimball article linked provides yet another example – he seizes upon the Santa Clara study like Jon Lovitz “yeah, that’s the ticket!” because it conforms with his ideological presets. Many people have made errors about this and I’ve no problem. What I do have a problem with is those on the Left and Right who stick with their ideological presets and ignore any evidence conflicting with those – people like Kimball. They made the mistake of thinking a virus had ideological properties just like they did. All of us, myself included, start with our “priors” including what we would like to happen to best conform with our core beliefs. The challenge in a situation like this is to make sure they do not become a default. You’ve done a good job with that in your posts, going where the evidence takes you. Kimball and others did not. That is the basis for my criticism.

    Another example – I’m sick of the Hydroxychloroquine Wars in which Trump haters and Trump lovers felt compelled to stake out their positions on the bona fides which I’m sure made them, as well as the President, happy because it made everything about Trump, obscuring an open-minded scientific question as well as discussions ignoring any other number of possible helpful therapies.

    Not much of an improvement, and a lot of projection going on here. Though you claim to want to get beyond “ideology”, you seem obsessed with labeling some as in the Trump-loving or Trump-hating fringes. Into which camp do you place Richard Epstein in order to defame him? Might be best, for all, if you just take their arguments on the merits, and not try to psychoanalyze their motives.

    Didn’t put Epstein in any Trump camp. Read again. Epstein’s arguments on the merits were embarrassingly poor because he could not get beyond his ideological blinders. 

    • #40
    • April 23, 2020, at 9:34 PM PDT
    • Like
  11. Architectus Coolidge

    D.A. Venters (View Comment):
    To throw your hands up at this early stage and say, “They blew it. This is history’s greatest blunder” is ridiculous.

    To be fair to the author, that was not the conclusion of the original post, which raised the question to promote discussion and offered several views and aspects of the arguments bearing on the question. And it has provoked a debate! 

    • #41
    • April 23, 2020, at 9:39 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  12. CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker Coolidge

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    By the way, if current popular estimates are to be believed, the “this is just the flu” guys will turn out to be basically right. We’re currently seeing IHME and the new UT estimates (here and here) in the 50,000-70,000 range. That’s a somewhat-bad flu season. Even if you double or triple these, it’s not seriously out of the range of a really bad flu season.

    I’ve respected your efforts here a lot, but let’s get real. Please check my math, but, from 3/20-4/20, my take is that the death toll has gone from under 300 to over 40,000. And obviously that’s with a good deal of social distancing. That’s a “somewhat bad” flu season?

    The flu comparison isn’t perfect, but I think it’s pretty useful to give an idea of the background risk of death from a fairly similar disease. I think that 40,000 would be a fairly moderate flu season, from the figures that I’ve seen on the flu.

    The COVID-19 deaths have occurred over a shorter period of time than a typical flu season. But if the final figure is in the 50,000-70,000 range, then the flu comparison will be pretty close. You seem to be making the assumption that the 40,000 deaths over the past month will continue (it’s actually closer to 50,000 now, and may have surpassed this — I haven’t checked today’s figures yet).

    [Edit: see above]

    I’m not making that assumption. My point was to point out the rate of growth over the last month (unanswered above), and to ask whether that=any flu at any time. I’d say “no.”

    Also note that any modeling, no matter how flawed, has been geared to the first wave of infections/deaths. Let’s see what’s down the line. We already know about past flu’s. and the end result. We haven’t come close to the end of this virus.

    No we have not come to the end of this virus, but now that we know hydroxychloroquine helps greatly, we don’t need to continue to worry about some “surge in COVID” stretching hospitals out beyond their capacity. Nor do we need to wrorry about availabliity of ventilators. With HCQ as a go to treatment, it means patient will only rarely require such.

    The one thing that hydroxychloroquine has going against it is that it is 20 bucks a month, as afar as its cost. So we are going to continue to see so many badly done and most likely fraudulent studies that it is more harm than benefit.

    I am quite sure that if hydroxychloroquine was $ 1,500 a month, it would be mandated treatment by now.

    Another treatment being considered is DIAMOX.

    • #42
    • April 23, 2020, at 9:39 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  13. Architectus Coolidge

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    Architectus (View Comment):

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    Mark, many estimates were off by an order of magnitude in the early days, in both directions. The ad hominem nature of your response suggests that you have no viable counter-arguments to Jim’s points. I think that you may actually have some such arguments, but I’d prefer to hear them, rather than hear a dismissal on the basis of some understandable errors made by people who are quite bright and worth listening to, even if they are not always right.

    I am responding. The Kimball article linked provides yet another example – he seizes upon the Santa Clara study like Jon Lovitz “yeah, that’s the ticket!” because it conforms with his ideological presets. Many people have made errors about this and I’ve no problem. What I do have a problem with is those on the Left and Right who stick with their ideological presets and ignore any evidence conflicting with those – people like Kimball. They made the mistake of thinking a virus had ideological properties just like they did. All of us, myself included, start with our “priors” including what we would like to happen to best conform with our core beliefs. The challenge in a situation like this is to make sure they do not become a default. You’ve done a good job with that in your posts, going where the evidence takes you. Kimball and others did not. That is the basis for my criticism.

    Another example – I’m sick of the Hydroxychloroquine Wars in which Trump haters and Trump lovers felt compelled to stake out their positions on the bona fides which I’m sure made them, as well as the President, happy because it made everything about Trump, obscuring an open-minded scientific question as well as discussions ignoring any other number of possible helpful therapies.

    Not much of an improvement, and a lot of projection going on here. Though you claim to want to get beyond “ideology”, you seem obsessed with labeling some as in the Trump-loving or Trump-hating fringes. Into which camp do you place Richard Epstein in order to defame him? Might be best, for all, if you just take their arguments on the merits, and not try to psychoanalyze their motives.

    Didn’t put Epstein in any Trump camp. Read again. Epstein’s arguments on the merits were embarrassingly poor because he could not get beyond his ideological blinders.

    Sorry, still not following you. What ideological blinder are you talking about? Does his general tendency as a libertarian make him view the effects of the Wuhan virus in a particular way? It could influence his approach to balancing the preservation of our constitutional rights with a state’s interest to protect public health, but I should hope each of us has developed a worldview based on rational study and our learned experiences.

    • #43
    • April 23, 2020, at 10:33 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  14. Vince Guerra Member

    Without a doubt this is the dumbest thing I’ve lived through. 

    • #44
    • April 24, 2020, at 12:15 AM PDT
    • 7 likes
  15. milkchaser Member
    milkchaserJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    What choice do we have other than to hope that we reach herd immunity as fast as possible? The infectiousness of this disease would seem to help bring about that immunity faster. There is no way to hide from the virus. 

    • #45
    • April 24, 2020, at 12:51 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  16. CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker Coolidge

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    By the way, if current popular estimates are to be believed, the “this is just the flu” guys will turn out to be basically right. We’re currently seeing IHME and the new UT estimates (here and here) in the 50,000-70,000 range. That’s a somewhat-bad flu season. Even if you double or triple these, it’s not seriously out of the range of a really bad flu season.

    I’ve respected your efforts here a lot, but let’s get real. Please check my math, but, from 3/20-4/20, my take is that the death toll has gone from under 300 to over 40,000. And obviously that’s with a good deal of social distancing. That’s a “somewhat bad” flu season?

     

    • #46
    • April 24, 2020, at 12:58 AM PDT
    • Like
  17. Snirtler Inactive

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    A quick point about Roger Kimball, Richard Epstein, Bill Bennett and others who destroyed their credibility because their ideologically driven reasoning led them to dramatically underestimate the seriousness of COVID-19. I want the lockdowns ended but you will not convince me by citing any of them.

    I regret that I have but one like to give this comment.

    • #47
    • April 24, 2020, at 1:53 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  18. Sisyphus Coolidge
    SisyphusJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    OldPhil (View Comment):

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    By the way, if current popular estimates are to be believed, the “this is just the flu” guys will turn out to be basically right. We’re currently seeing IHME and the new UT estimates (here and here) in the 50,000-70,000 range. That’s a somewhat-bad flu season. Even if you double or triple these, it’s not seriously out of the range of a really bad flu season.

    I’ve respected your efforts here a lot, but let’s get real. Please check my math, but, from 3/20-4/20, my take is that the death toll has gone from under 300 to over 40,000. And obviously that’s with a good deal of social distancing. That’s a “somewhat bad” flu season?

    Flu season peaks between December and February. I couldn’t find a monthly death chart (that sounds grisly), but I’d assume most flu deaths occur in a 3-4 month period. 61,000 deaths were estimated for the 2017-18 season.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

    We are in April and the CDC graph shows that flu season ends promptly in March, with no significant April activity, so clearly the April deaths attributed to Covid-19 are all bogus. Or Covid-19 is not behaving seasonally like a flu and, as Florida and Iran could have told us, warm weather is not the trick. I can be apprehensive about the virus and the civil rights issues at the same time. I contain multitudes.

    In the meantime, let’s cherry puck stats because NIH and the CDC are too busy planning world domination to do the national level testing survey that gives us the national number on antibody production. I think they’ve done it and are sitting on the numbers because they tell an inconvenient truth, but they might just be fumbling the order to postpone finding out their inconvenient truth.

    Let’s admit that Italy and NYC are scary and 90% of US counties are a yawn fest and get down to the serious business of conducting emergency measures where the emergency exists and, of course, destroy all medical testing kits made by the CCP and scrub those numbers.

    • #48
    • April 24, 2020, at 2:19 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  19. Jim George Member
    Jim George

    Architectus (View Comment):

    D.A. Venters (View Comment):
    To throw your hands up at this early stage and say, “They blew it. This is history’s greatest blunder” is ridiculous.

    To be fair to the author, that was not the conclusion of the original post, which raised the question to promote discussion and offered several views and aspects of the arguments bearing on the question. And it has provoked a debate!

    Thank you for this note– as I have pointed out to one of the comments above, some of our colleagues seem to have missed the part of the title which read “Will History Judge…….” and I appreciate your bringing that to the fore once again. 

    Sincerely, Jim

    • #49
    • April 24, 2020, at 5:00 AM PDT
    • 7 likes
  20. Jim George Member
    Jim George

    Sisyphus (Rolling Stone) (View Comment):
    Let’s admit that Italy and NYC are scary and 90% of US counties are a yawn fest and get down to the serious business of conducting emergency measures where the emergency exists and, of course, destroy all medical testing kits made by the CCP and scrub those numbers.

    Excellent point– to go back to the MacDonald article, she proved what folly the “one size fits all” approach of Cuomo is to upstate New York which is being massively punished due to a problem which is restricted almost entirely to the New York City area.

    • #50
    • April 24, 2020, at 5:04 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  21. Roderic Reagan

    Jim George:

    I end with the sadly requisite disclaimer that I bow to no one in my admiration for the President and Vice President in their roles in this crisis and my respect for the scientific experts upon whom they have placed almost total reliance in establishing the policy which got us to this place, with an emphasis on a respect for their specific roles as scientists, not policymakers or politicians answerable (theoretically, at least) to the voters who should ultimately decide the wisdom vel non of their actions.

    My dissent has to do with my right under the Bill of Rights to say this has gone on far too long, and it needs to end now.

    The scientific experts were saying that doing nothing about the pandemic would result in 2.2 million dead, 30% of the country infected, and the health care system completely overrun by orders of magnitude. This estimation didn’t require a computer model, it was simple common sense based on this history of pandemics. So doing nothing was out of the question.

    Back when this first started I lamented that if efforts to suppress the virus were successful then people would be saying that the efforts were never necessary. Never have I been so prescient as then. They are now questioning the necessity of those efforts with rabid intensity beyond all reason. If crime rates become low subsequent to strict law enforcement do conservatives question the necessity of strict law enforcement?

    As of right now the number of active cases in the US is still rising. That is, the number of new cases every day still exceeds the number of people recovering from the disease every day. The job is only half done, if that. If we let up the virus will surely flare up again, most people still being susceptible to it.

    To be sure, there are a lot of restrictions that were probably excessive and should be rescinded, a lot of businesses shut could be safely opened, but the main effort to suppress the virus must continue.

    • #51
    • April 24, 2020, at 6:02 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  22. Roderic Reagan

    Tex929rr (View Comment):
    Yes. Leaders at all levels of government have proven to be driven mostly by fear of making a mistake. Which means they haven’t been leaders at all. It’s not that they don’t want to do the right thing. It’s that they failed to judge whether or not the advice they were given might have second order effects worse than the COVID virus itself, because they were too scared that they might get it wrong.

    Leaders have been following standard procedure, which is to follow the advice of experts. Doing otherwise would be irresponsible and dangerous.

    • #52
    • April 24, 2020, at 6:12 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  23. Roderic Reagan

    Jim George (View Comment):
    the fact that every single model and projection has been wrong

    That’s not a fact at all. It’s completely untrue.

    • #53
    • April 24, 2020, at 6:14 AM PDT
    • Like
  24. Tex929rr Coolidge

    Roderic (View Comment):

    Tex929rr (View Comment):
    Yes. Leaders at all levels of government have proven to be driven mostly by fear of making a mistake. Which means they haven’t been leaders at all. It’s not that they don’t want to do the right thing. It’s that they failed to judge whether or not the advice they were given might have second order effects worse than the COVID virus itself, because they were too scared that they might get it wrong.

    Leaders have been following standard procedure, which is to follow the advice of experts. Doing otherwise would be irresponsible and dangerous.

    No. The experts provide guidance on what can happen given assumptions based on less than perfect information. Political leaders have the responsibility to temper the response based on considerations outside the purview of experts in a limited area. Should epidemiologists decide what the Federal Reserve does in response to the lockdown?

    • #54
    • April 24, 2020, at 6:18 AM PDT
    • 5 likes
  25. Matt Upton Inactive

    Political leaders of this country would not have acted as they did without the initial response of other nations, US businesses which shut down prior to any US government action, and early adoption of social distancing in hot spot areas prior to government action. 

    It’s more accurate to me to say government mis-reacted than overreacted. It should have been taken as seriously as it did given how quickly it could spread. The stay-at-home orders and shutting down small businesses should have been, at most, a 2-week order with strict hygienic recommendations put in place afterwards. 

    The “No big deal” crowd does worry me though when it makes less burdensome measures like masks a symbol of state oppression. Measures like masks are both tools to slow the spread and instill confidence to return to normal life for the 80% of the country that does think this is a big deal. 

    • #55
    • April 24, 2020, at 6:36 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  26. Miffed White Male Member
    Miffed White MaleJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Roderic (View Comment):

    Tex929rr (View Comment):
    Yes. Leaders at all levels of government have proven to be driven mostly by fear of making a mistake. Which means they haven’t been leaders at all. It’s not that they don’t want to do the right thing. It’s that they failed to judge whether or not the advice they were given might have second order effects worse than the COVID virus itself, because they were too scared that they might get it wrong.

    Leaders have been following standard procedure, which is to follow the advice of experts. Doing otherwise would be irresponsible and dangerous.

    As somebody posted somewhere above (or on another thread), if we listened to “experts” we’d probably ban tobacco and alcohol, red meat, sugar, have a nationwide 20 mph speed limit, and everyone would be required to wear crash helmets at all times.

    “experts” have a very narrow focus. It’s up to policy makers to synthesize the desires and stated preferences of those “experts” with more practical concerns.

    • #56
    • April 24, 2020, at 6:51 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  27. Jim George Member
    Jim George

    Roderic (View Comment):

    Jim George (View Comment):
    the fact that every single model and projection has been wrong

    That’s not a fact at all. It’s completely untrue.

    With respect, I would be most appreciative if you could cite me to the model or models which have been accurate. All of my reading and study indicates that my statement is well supported by objective evidence.

    If you have evidence that some of these models have been right on target, I would like to see that evidence, as I, again with the utmost of respect, feel that is a much more productive way to approach a dialogue like this than simply suggesting someone — in this case, moi — made up a statement for purposes of winning an argument.

    Actually, in your home state, as in mine, across the Sabine, some might have another word for that kind of debate technique, one which has been known to instigate most unpleasant consequences. 

    I will await your kind response.

    Sincerely, Jim

    • #57
    • April 24, 2020, at 7:12 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  28. Roderic Reagan

    Tex929rr (View Comment):

    Roderic (View Comment):

    Tex929rr (View Comment):
    Yes. Leaders at all levels of government have proven to be driven mostly by fear of making a mistake. Which means they haven’t been leaders at all. It’s not that they don’t want to do the right thing. It’s that they failed to judge whether or not the advice they were given might have second order effects worse than the COVID virus itself, because they were too scared that they might get it wrong.

    Leaders have been following standard procedure, which is to follow the advice of experts. Doing otherwise would be irresponsible and dangerous.

    No. The experts provide guidance on what can happen given assumptions based on less than perfect information. Political leaders have the responsibility to temper the response based on considerations outside the purview of experts in a limited area. Should epidemiologists decide what the Federal Reserve does in response to the lockdown?

    It’s easy to know what to do in hindsight. Political leaders had no choice but to prepare for the worst case.

    • #58
    • April 24, 2020, at 7:37 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  29. Roderic Reagan

    D.A. Venters (View Comment):

    The average flu deaths over the past few years is something like 37,000. 2017-2018 was freakishly high year at 61k.

    Covid-19 is far outpacing the flu. Nearly 50,000 in the last month, and that’s with the social distancing. Imagine the flu killed 50,000 in October. That would cause a panic, too.

    The concern was based on the prediction that COVID-19 would spread rapidly and swamp the medical system leaving everyone without medical care and resulting in loss of life just based on that. There has never been any danger that seasonal flu would do that.

    • #59
    • April 24, 2020, at 7:44 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  30. Tex929rr Coolidge

    Roderic (View Comment):

    D.A. Venters (View Comment):

    The average flu deaths over the past few years is something like 37,000. 2017-2018 was freakishly high year at 61k.

    Covid-19 is far outpacing the flu. Nearly 50,000 in the last month, and that’s with the social distancing. Imagine the flu killed 50,000 in October. That would cause a panic, too.

    The concern was based on the prediction that COVID-19 would spread rapidly and swamp the medical system leaving everyone without medical care and resulting in loss of life just based on that. There has never been any danger that seasonal flu would do that.

    There is always a risk that seasonal flu will overwhelm the medical system. That’s why we have flu shots and the response to flu is so widely familiar to the average American. Of course there was lots of uncertainty about COVID. But leadership is doing the thing that’s not easy. It’s what Reagan and Volcker did to save the economy, the GW Bush Iraq surge, or ever Churchill with Coventry. It’s easy to say “my experts told me and I must listen to them”. It’s hard to say there may be a better way. Blindly doing what one group of experts say is leading from behind,

    • #60
    • April 24, 2020, at 7:53 AM PDT
    • 6 likes