Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.

 

In addition to the Obamacare decision which is slated to come down on Thursday, the House vote on a resolution that would hold Eric Holder in contempt of Congress has been scheduled for that day as well. From The Hill:

A vote by the full House would escalate a confrontation between House Republicans and the Obama administration that could wind up in court.

The vote will likely coincide with a Supreme Court ruling on Obama’s healthcare law. That ruling is likely to overshadow the House vote, but a contempt citation could compound a politically disastrous day for Obama if the court overturns the healthcare law.

There are 22 comments.

  1. James Gawron Thatcher

    Diane,

    From your keyboard to Gd’s ear.

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #1
    • June 26, 2012, at 4:34 AM PDT
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  2. Profile Photo Member

    Or it could be a wonderful day for Obama. The Supreme Court upholds Obamacare 6-3 just as Nancy Pelosi predicted (and which I think is more likely than the law being thrown out), and Holder is held in contempt in a move that backfires and makes Republicans out to look like zealots out to get a President who still has a high personal favorability rating.

    • #2
    • June 26, 2012, at 4:39 AM PDT
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  3. David Williamson Inactive

    The chickenssss are coming home to rooost.

    • #3
    • June 26, 2012, at 4:43 AM PDT
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  4. Leigh Member

    How about we set up a live chat for Thursday?

    • #4
    • June 26, 2012, at 4:52 AM PDT
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  5. Southern Pessimist Member

    wmartin is the true pessimist on this site. I tend to think that Obamacare will be largely overturned and Holder will be sited for comtempt of Congress. That doesn’t mean it is time to get cocky as Instapundit would say. It does mean that something unexpected is happening here. For the past two months we have been watching the incredible shrinking president and not even the most optimistic conservative could have forecast that.

    • #5
    • June 26, 2012, at 4:56 AM PDT
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  6. Profile Photo Member
    Southern Pessimist: wmartin is the true pessimist on this site. I tend to think that Obamacare will be largely overturned and Holder will be sited for comtempt of Congress. That doesn’t mean it time to get cocky as Instapundit would say. It does mean that something unexpected is happening here. For the past two months we have been watching the incredible shrinking president and not even the most optimistic conservative could have forecast that. · 1 minute ago

    Edited 0 minutes ago

    I do tend to be overly pessimistic. I felt a little bit of dread at what I thought were premature celebrations regarding the Scott Walker recall, and I have had the same feeling over the last month as many conservatives have been acting like this case is just as good as won. I have been as entertained as everyone else by the liberal meltdowns, but I will enjoy them much more after we actually have a favorable ruling.

    I do agree that even an optimist could not have guessed how far back we would come in only four years (conservatives, not the country). I briefly entertained the Sam Tanenhaus thesis in my darker moods in 2009.

    • #6
    • June 26, 2012, at 5:08 AM PDT
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  7. flownover Inactive

    Amen sister.

    • #7
    • June 26, 2012, at 5:10 AM PDT
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  8. The Great Adventure! Member

    Diane – good thing there’s nothing in the CoC about putting up particularly titillating posts.

    • #8
    • June 26, 2012, at 5:15 AM PDT
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  9. Profile Photo Member

    Don’t know if this is the right thread for this, but here’s an interesting tidbit over at Hot Gas:

    http://hotair.com/archives/2012/06/25/oh-my-is-ginsburg-writing-the-main-obamacare-dissent/

    • #9
    • June 26, 2012, at 5:21 AM PDT
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  10. Southern Pessimist Member

    No, wmartin, I think that any link with Ruth Bader Ginsberg should have gone to the Ricochet is better than sex thread.

    • #10
    • June 26, 2012, at 5:48 AM PDT
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  11. Nick Stuart Inactive

    The Supremes continue Obamacare to next year for additional arguments. The GOP House “Leadership” discovers an arcane parliamentary diktat requiring tabling the contempt motion to the sixth Friday of February.

    Joe Biden grabs his lunchpail and heads back to the mine, and PBO saddles up his unicorn to take another run at the pot of gold at the end of the Hollywood rainbow.

    It could happen.

    • #11
    • June 26, 2012, at 5:53 AM PDT
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  12. Ken Burns Inactive
    wmartin: Or it could be a wonderful day for Obama. The Supreme Court upholds Obamacare 6-3 just as Nancy Pelosi predicted (and which I think is more likely than the law being thrown out) · 1 hour ago

    If it is upheld, it will most likely be 6-3. The CJ will be in the majority and write the opinion whichever way it goes. If Kennedy gives the 5th vote, the CJ will go along so he can write the opinion to limit its scope. I am hoping Kennedy does not vote to uphold Obamacare, or at least the individual mandate, but if he does as martin predicts, it will be 6-3. I wish it were otherwise.

    • #12
    • June 26, 2012, at 5:57 AM PDT
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  13. Profile Photo Member
    Ken Burns
    wmartin: Or it could be a wonderful day for Obama. The Supreme Court upholds Obamacare 6-3 just as Nancy Pelosi predicted (and which I think is more likely than the law being thrown out) · 1 hour ago

    If it is upheld, it will most likely be 6-3. The CJ will be in the majority and write the opinion whichever way it goes. If Kennedy gives the 5th vote, the CJ will go along so he can write the opinion to limit its scope. I am hoping Kennedy does not vote to uphold Obamacare, or at least the individual mandate, but if he does as martin predicts, it will be 6-3. I wish it were otherwise. · 11 minutes ago

    My new fear is that Ginsburg cleared her schedule so that she can write the majority, and Roberts is prepping a fiery conservative dissent. yes it’s unlikely, but…

    • #13
    • June 26, 2012, at 7:22 AM PDT
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  14. Aaron Miller Member

    My guess is that Obamacare will be only partially struck down. As for the contempt hearing, I have no idea.

    Tomorrow (Tuesday) might be equally important. Syria apparently fired at another Turkish aircraft. Thankfully, they missed this time. I’ve asked Claire for her input. Will this affect NATO’s meeting?

    • #14
    • June 26, 2012, at 7:59 AM PDT
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  15. Profile Photo Member

    A strange thing…before the actual oral arguments, I would have been pathetically grateful just to see the mandate struck down, After the arguments and three months buildup, anything less than the entire law being thrown out feels like a defeat.

    • #15
    • June 26, 2012, at 8:15 AM PDT
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  16. Kervinlee Member

    I’m hoping for really bad.

    • #16
    • June 26, 2012, at 8:33 AM PDT
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  17. Diane Ellis Contributor
    Diane Ellis Post author
    The Great Adventure!: Diane – good thing there’s nothing in the CoC about putting up particularly titillating posts. · 17 hours ago

    Was this comment meant to be in response to the other post on Ricochet’s new sexy marketing slogan? :)

    • #17
    • June 26, 2012, at 10:10 AM PDT
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  18. Diane Ellis Contributor
    Diane Ellis Post author
    Aaron Miller: My guess is that Obamacare will be only partially struck down. As for the contempt hearing, I have no idea.

    Unless Holder/Obama release the documents between now and Thursday, I don’t see how Holder gets any other outcome beside being held in contempt by a majority Republican Congress.

    • #18
    • June 26, 2012, at 10:13 AM PDT
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  19. James Of England Moderator
    Diane Ellis, Ed.
    Aaron Miller: My guess is that Obamacare will be only partially struck down. As for the contempt hearing, I have no idea.

    Unless Holder/Obama release the documents between now and Thursday, I don’t see how Holder gets any other outcome beside being held in contempt by a majority Republican Congress. · 7 minutes ago

    I’m slightly more pessimistic about the SCOTUS ruling; I think that striking down the mandate only would be a better than average outcome, and closer to the clean sweep outcome in greatness than to the also plausible clean sweep loss for us.

    Regarding Holder, I don’t think that the risk is that we’ll fail to hold him in contempt, but that the politics of doing so will work out poorly for us. As with Obamacare, I think that the odds are in our favor, but not overwhelmingly so.

    • #19
    • June 26, 2012, at 10:22 AM PDT
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  20. No Caesar Thatcher

    Given all the delays and passed deadlines on this case, it seems far more likely that it’s neither a straight-up upholding or striking down. I think they are negotiating on which parts are culled, with the 4-person liberal block trying frantically to split the moderates (Roberts & Kennedy) and conservatives so as to preserve some vestige of untrammeled power for future liberals to make laws as they wish. 

    The argument that it will actually be 3 decisions, with two largely overlapping (a la Bush v. Gore) seems most likely. Let’s just hope that the overlap is mostly between the conservatives and the moderates. 

    • #20
    • June 26, 2012, at 10:24 AM PDT
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  21. James Of England Moderator
    Southern Pessimist: wmartin is the true pessimist on this site. I tend to think that Obamacare will be largely overturned and Holder will be sited for comtempt of Congress. That doesn’t mean it is time to get cocky as Instapundit would say. It does mean that something unexpected is happening here. For the past two months we have been watching the incredible shrinking president and not even the most optimistic conservative could have forecast that. · 5 hours ago

    Edited 5 hours ago

    He wasn’t saying that it would be bad for us. He was saying that it could be, which is undeniably true. Far too many people go from “we’re definitely going to lose” to “we’re definitely going to win” and vice versa on all kinds of issues. Neither of Thursday’s known unknowns are in the bag yet. Now is the time for prayer (Obamacare) and campaign calling (Holder), not for celebration. That time, inshallah, will come on Thursday.

    • #21
    • June 26, 2012, at 11:50 AM PDT
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  22. Diane Ellis Contributor
    Diane Ellis Post author
    James Of England
    Diane Ellis, Ed.
    Aaron Miller: My guess is that Obamacare will be only partially struck down. As for the contempt hearing, I have no idea.

    Unless Holder/Obama release the documents between now and Thursday, I don’t see how Holder gets any other outcome beside being held in contempt by a majority Republican Congress. · 7 minutes ago

    Regarding Holder, I don’t think that the risk is that we’ll fail to hold him in contempt, but that the politics of doing so will work out poorly for us. As with Obamacare, I think that the odds are in our favor, but not overwhelmingly so. · 2 hours ago

    We know that the media will portray the contempt vote as negatively as they can, calling it political gamesmanship, and a sideshow distraction. But as more Americans come to know about the Fast & Furious scandal, I don’t see how they buy into that narrative.

    • #22
    • June 26, 2012, at 11:59 AM PDT
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