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Flatten the Curve… or So We Were Told
Let’s not lose sight of the original objective. We were told the objective was to flatten the curve so as not to ‘overwhelm’ hospitals. Fine. The objective was never to eradicate the virus. In fact, we wanted to prolong the life of the virus so we could ‘flatten’ the curve.
According to the IHME, the worst is over in NY.
California is supposed to reach peak deaths on April 15.
Once a state is past its peak, shouldn’t we lift the quarantine?
Some people will say if we lift the quarantine then the rate of transmission and infection will increase. That may be true but that is a drawback or tradeoff of ‘flattening the curve.’
Are hospitals overwhelmed? No, not even in NY.
Is there a ventilator shortage? No, not even in NY.
Has hydroxychloroquine demonstrated utility? Yes, even in NY.
NY which has 13x deaths than in California has a quarantine until April 30 while California has extended it quarantine to May 15. This makes very little sense in terms of economics and epidemiology.
Let’s stop this nonsense before the contagion of absurdity gets worse.
The curve is flat.
End of story.
Published in General
Cuomo, Murphy in New Jersey and the other northeastern governors put out an announcement this afternoon on reopening plans, and Abbott down here in Texas says he’ll release his plan later this week. I think all those states are going to go with rural, low-impacted areas first, but once it starts it’s going to be tough for any other states to hold out on their hardcore restrictions, unless the COVD cases suddenly re-spike:
None of us is as dumb as all of us
Finding a rural area of Rhode Island to start the targeted reopening in will be interesting to see.
“All curves are flat but some curves are flatter than others.”
“Guys, if we work together we can convince the voters we’re successfully getting things back to normal without them noticing that we haven’t repealed any of our ’emergency’ powers. It’s win-win!”
Are we talking about models or “models”?
I prefer curvy models.
Should make for an interesting contrast-and-compare between what the Northeatern states do and what Texas does. Combined, I think those states and Texas are about the same size, and NY and PA definitely have some rural areas that could be targeted for the first reopening efforts.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/
The same IHME whose prognostications have been so stellar so far? That IHME?
Is Trump still POTUS? Does he still have a chance to be reelected? If yes to either then that curve is not flat enough. This may have started out as an over abundance of caution but it is now a political foot ball to advance agendas, make money and take power.
An important observation.
The lock-down was necessary. It accomplished its mission at least so far which was to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed. I agree, it is time or very close to the time to put an end to the mandatory stay-at-home orders. Vulnerable people still need to self-quarantine for their safety. But everyone ought to have the freedom to choose for himself or herself exactly how cautious to be. I think the groceries ought to still maintain senior hours for a period.
The danger now is that the government lifting the mandatory restrictions would be falsely interpreted as an all clear. All is not clear. People still have to exercise good judgment.
Basically, the insidious concept that’s being propagated is that “normalcy” cannot be regained without government action, when increased government action is itself the abnormal condition that we’re trying to climb down from.
Yes, it’s definitely time. But some people have become addicted to self righteous screaming. I see people on social media livid that they encounter people without masks in the grocery store. This in a county of 45,000+people with 11 cases – no hospitalizations, and 8 of the 11 considered recovered. And then we have articles like this:https://www.texasmonthly.com/news/coronavirus-spread-rural-counties-university-texas-researchers/
Headline:
COVID-19 May Be Silently Spreading Across Rural Counties, University of Texas Researchers Believe
Lord protect me from university experts.
We have a school board meeting tonight and it will be interesting to discuss our options if the state allows districts to go back to classes after the current mandated date of May 4th. I suspect many superintendents are asking the education commissioner to extend the closure to the end of the year to prevent them from having to make a decision.
You could make your fortune by selling those people rocks that repel tigers.
Yes, I know, Yes
Is there a loud version of covid 19?
What sound does a pangolin make?
Once again, we return to Uncle Milton’s (Friedman) lesson on Barking Cats:
[slightly adapted]
(This is an old favorite, except I see now that part about “you recognize that you cannot assign characteristics at will to chemical and biological entities” has been severely blurred by the more modern progressive idiocy. Too bad…it was a good lesson while it lasts.)
I don’t think it was successful by its own measures. Unless I am mistaken, the graph, with and without showed hospitals at max nationally, not regionally when this all started.
Michigan Region 7 (counties in north west & east Michigan) has been waiting for 3 weeks for a surge. Region 7 comprises 19 counties, over 450,000 people; 8,357 sq. mi.; 11 hospitals. Today’s totals for those counties (cumulative) are 167 cases, and 14 deaths; # inpatients- 22; # critical care -22; # on ventilators-9 (104 available); #ED discharges – 14. Some hospitals are adding more surgeries after bleeding red ink waiting for the surge that so far hasn’t happened. Stats from the state website https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-523641–,00.html (Yesterday Alpena Co. showed its first case, it is missing today)
I think adults have the ability to look out for themselves and the vulnerable. We do for many risks in life.
It will be the ordinary person that normalizes life. My daughter in law has been baking bread and delivering it to neighbors on their walks with the two toddlers. No masks. They are meeting people they didn’t know, and finding out a lot about who lives in their neighborhood. So far I think she’s made 15 loaves. Perhaps they are throwing them away because of cooties, but, the last time they went for a walk, an old lady they gave bread to previously stopped them to gab, and gave them some toilet paper.
IHME now projects California will reach peak deaths on April 19.
Shame on me for referring to IHME in my post.
On the other hand at least they are being Bayesian — adjust probability as new information comes in
It’s funny – the curve started flattening radically right about the time they started testing the TrumpCure.
How lucky is he, that people randomly stopped dying right after they started testing that cure that couldn’t possibly work?
Their prediction has changed as to when it will peak there has changed. Do you what the estimated date was before?
April 15
I wonder, when the government gives us “permission” to return to our lives, what that will be like. They will probably want things to open up slowly, like telling us that 25 or 50% of us can return to our places of work.
I wonder if we’ll do it that way, tiptoeing out of our doors, tentatively heading out like we’re going through the haunted forest.
Or will it be a national jailbreak, like kids bursting out on the last day of school?
Mister Bitcoin,
Hysteria translates into power & control for the intellectually knee-jerk. They are loath to give up the pleasurable feeling of having an undeserved amount of power over others. We must push them off the controls and restore a balanced view of this event. They will scream and cry and blame but to no avail.
We should be backing off the total lockdown shortly. We will continue to shelter at-risk populations while the young & healthy are sent back to work & school. Not only will this not produce negative results but it will enhance herd immunity that will ensure that corona doesn’t make a come back.
It will take guts to make this decision. Trump has the guts and that is why he is President.
Regards,
Jim
I read their last comment on their methodology changes, promised on April 7, delivered on April 10. I was wondering if they were actually relying on tea leaves or bird entrails.
They smooth the data before they even put it into their model. They have multiple ways of calculating social distancing, and then two models to use it as a “covariate” of the death figures, based on a moving weighted-average methodology.
I get the strong impression that they have created a location-specific curve-fitting function, designed to predict a later (and probably higher) death toll where there is less martial law. They do not seem to determine the effectiveness of lockdown measures in their model. They assume them. Then they adjust the figures when reality arrives.
I think that it really is like my Cliffie joke a few days ago.
#13 David Carroll
Yours is the only sensible statement thus far on this thread — OP included.
The rest of you: Read through my comment #34 on Rodin’s Day 84 thread; then ask yourselves whether you’re thinking even remotely pragmatically about this virus.
Not even whether you care about people like my mom who were as self-reliant, productive, and community-minded as you before the Wuhan Virus suddenly made them (non-obese) comorbidity statistics — but statistics somehow beneath your consideration in determining that a roll-back to the status quo ante is ridiculously overdue because (insert political bugbear you will face almost impossible odds reversing here).
Just whether you are confident that we know pretty much all we need to know about this virus — in the absence of a vaccine — in order to make and implement sweeping policy prescriptions for everyone’s health and longevity.
Heck, I don’t even need to hear about the keep-the-hospitals-from-getting-overwhelmed stuff. Just chew on the paragraph above — I’ll be here, man.