Watching the Celtics Games with Cliffie

 

I haven’t confessed this before. I’ve been worried that Rob would get upset.

In the early ’90s, I used to hang out at this awesome sports bar in Boston to watch the Celtics games. They had a great big-screen TV, which was a pretty new thing at the time. There were these two guys who used to hang out with me, always looking a bit sheepish when they walked in, like they were supposed to be someplace else.

Cliffie was a mailman. I mean, a postal worker. His buddy Norm was a pudgy, disheveled accountant. They were a lot of fun.

Cliffie had this extraordinary predictive power. Before the game, he’d predict the final score. He’d update his prediction at the end of each quarter, then at the two-minute mark in the fourth, and finally with around 30 seconds left. His predictions were always pretty good, though of course, they tended to get better as the game progressed. He’d explain that he based his earlier predictions on the information available at the time, so he naturally adjusted them when he received more information. His final predictions were almost always spot-on.

I was just amazed by his basketball genius.

I sure miss those guys. Not that it would help now, as martial law has canceled the NBA. And the bars in Boston.

Yep, the IHME has another prediction out. Guess what. Friday was Hump Day! That’s right, April 10, 2020, Good Friday of all days — was America’s darkest hour in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Back in the dark days of April 2020, when all looked bleak — I mean, on the dark day of April 2 — IHME predicted 93,531 COVID-19 deaths in this great land, with the terrible toll mounting until April 16 before slowly receding. But they warned that it could be as bad as 177,866 deaths, and that was only if we were very, very good little boys and girls and obeyed all of the martial law decrees of our Masters, oops, I mean the wise social distancing recommendations of our benevolent leaders.

Then, in the slightly less dark days of April 2020 — April 5 this time — things were better, and only 81,766 of us were going to die, and the peak would still be April 16. But it might be 136,401 of us, and don’t forget that even these figures are only good if you remain under house arrest, oops, I mean keep up the social distancing.

And whatever you do, don’t use masks, they don’t work and they may increase the spread of COVID-19, and the health care workers need them, because they work for the health care workers but not for you, because they know how to use a mask and you don’t, you idiot. Wait, no, that may have been the Surgeon General rather than the IHME. My apologies. And the Surgeon General didn’t say this recently, anyway, it was way back in the dark days of, like, March 2020.

But then, in the slightly less dark days of April 2020 — April 7, four days ago — things were even better, and only 60,415 of us were going to die, but we’d turn the corner sooner and things would start getting better on April 12. Easter, as it happens. Except it might be 126,703 of us would die. And we were still going to be short 9,046 ICU beds on April 11.

Oh, and on that very dark day of April 7 — but not quite so dark as April 5 had been, which was not quite so dark as April 2 had been — where was I? Right, on April 7 there were going to be 5,926 Americans in New York alone who needed an ICU bed, but there would only be 718 ICU beds available in New York, so 5,208 New Yorkers would be slowly suffocating from COVID-19 without necessary medical care. Pay no attention to those 4,593 New Yorkers who were actually in the ICU being treated for COVID-19 on that very day, with not a single reported shortfall.

And it got worse. Because on April 7, though only 60,415 Americans were going to die, 66,314 of our friends in Britain were going to die. Because Boris was so very, very slow in declaring martial law, oops, I mean implementing reasonable social distancing measures.

But things are better now, mostly. I think that it’s because of the brave sacrifice of dear Boris. You guys know Boris, right?

He’s kinda like a cross between Trump and the absent-minded professor. He’s not mean like Trump and he’s not really racist or sexist like Trump, and he’s of much higher moral character even though he’s been living in sin with his girlfriend at 10 Downing Street where Churchill used to dwell, and they’re having a baby, but don’t worry they’re getting married now. He is brilliant, able to read Virgil in the original Roman and rattle off long passages of the Iliad in Greek, in fine iambic pentameter (I think it’s iambic pentameter, but it’s all Greeek to me). But even though Boris isn’t as awful as Trump, his voters are just as racist and sexist and Islamophobic and xenophobic and homophobic and transphobic and goodophobic as the Trump voters.

Anyway, Boris had to do penance, so he was stricken by COVID-19. Did you see what it did to his hair? Anyway, he had to go into the ICU on April 6, though he got out on April 9. Three days in ICU — hmm. And mean old Boris must have kicked someone out of that ICU bed, because according to the IHME, Britain was going to be short 10,469 ICU beds on April 6, and it was just going to get worse.

But now — Good Friday, April 10 — all is well, according to the IHME. We don’t have to wait until Easter for the peak to occur. The peak is here! It’s hump day! Sure, 1,983 of us are going to die, but it will never be this bad again. Though the total number that are gonna die is up, from 60,415 (3 days ago) to 61,545, except it might be as high as 155,315. But don’t worry about it because we’ll have another release in a few days and all of these numbers will change again.

Just like my buddy Cliffie, the IHME is gonna be right in the end!

By the way, though they are assiduously adjusting their model to account for all sorts of new data, the IHME still assumes that there are only 718 ICU beds available for COVID-19 patients in New York. Even though there were 4,925 New Yorkers in the ICU April 9, according to the NY Times, with no reported shortage. And the number dropped by 77 yesterday, again according to the NY Times. But the ever-adjusting IHME predicted that New York would need 5,673.176 ICU beds today, and that the shortfall would be 4,955.176 ICU beds — coincidentally, almost the exact number (4,848) of New Yorkers who were actually in the ICU!

Oh, and don’t worry about Boris and James and Toby. (And definitely don’t worry about my favorite Englishman, Charlie, who is actually one of us now.) 66,314 Brits aren’t gonna die. It’s only going to be 34,494. For now, because it’s Hump Day.

This report has been brought to you by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Projections are subject to change without notice. Terms and conditions apply.

ChiCom delenda est.

Now I think I have to go and do some actual penance. Because I’ve been writing this ephemeral nonsense on Good Friday. The Savior of the World died this day, those many centuries ago on Calvary, for me. And I spent my time on this. It’s OK. He’s gonna forgive me. It’s what He does, and why He died.

Published in Healthcare
This post was promoted to the Main Feed by a Ricochet Editor at the recommendation of Ricochet members. Like this post? Want to comment? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Join Ricochet for Free.

There are 12 comments.

Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.
  1. Muleskinner, Weasel Wrangler Member
    Muleskinner, Weasel Wrangler
    @Muleskinner

    Not to worry, I just saw the IMHE modeler on TV. For his next trick, he is going to model which businesses are essential and should be reopened, and when. Lord help us all.

    • #1
  2. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    I was wondering why is Jerry a Celtics fan

     

    • #2
  3. Jon1979 Inactive
    Jon1979
    @Jon1979

    But when you were watching the Celtics games, did you ever look at the young bartender and think “This kid’s loopey enough to think you can get a flu virus from a telephone tower“?

    • #3
  4. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Thanks for posting this, Jerry. Somebody needs to be keeping track because that IHME web site doesn’t give you an option to pick an “as of” date to show what the projections were back then.

    • #4
  5. OldPhil Coolidge
    OldPhil
    @OldPhil

    Once this post receives 6 more likes it will appear on the Ricochet Member Recommended Feed. The Recommended Feed is reviewed daily by a Ricochet Editor for consideration for promotion to the Main Feed.

    Git ‘er done.

    • #5
  6. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio…
    @ArizonaPatriot

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    I was wondering why is Jerry a Celtics fan

     

    Actually, I preferred the Lakers back then. But my Cliffie joke only worked if I pretended to be a Celtics fan.

    I had nothing against the Celtics. They were great. I just loved Magic Johnson. Still do. It was  the smile and the joy of the man.

    • #6
  7. Muleskinner, Weasel Wrangler Member
    Muleskinner, Weasel Wrangler
    @Muleskinner

    The only time I was ever in Phoenix, Danny Ainge spit on me. I ain’t going back.

    • #7
  8. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio…: Anyway, Boris had to do penance, so he was stricken by COVID-19. Did you see what it did to his hair?

    His hair is always like that.

    • #8
  9. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio…
    @ArizonaPatriot

    Percival (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio…: Anyway, Boris had to do penance, so he was stricken by COVID-19. Did you see what it did to his hair?

    His hair is always like that.

    Yes, I know.  My hair is not always like that, but it’s getting to be, because of COVID-19.  Not the disease itself, mind you, but the fact that all of the barbershops are closed.

    I’m gonna wait one more week, then send a picture of my hair to Governor Ducey and challenge him to continue to maintain that barbershops are not essential.  :)

    • #9
  10. Franco Member
    Franco
    @Franco

    While working as a stiltwalker funnyman at Merv Griffin’s Resorts International in Atlantic City, I saw Celtics center Robert Parrish in the lobby. I went over to him shook his hand from my ten-foot perch and used my standard line for anyone over 6’4” , “Great to see you here, Mr.Parrish, you need someone to look up to”. He smiled, which is gushing emotion for him.

    I didn’t tell him I was a 76er fan and how much I hated Danny Ainge. That would have been indulgent and unprofessional.

    • #10
  11. Muleskinner, Weasel Wrangler Member
    Muleskinner, Weasel Wrangler
    @Muleskinner

    Franco (View Comment):
    I didn’t tell him I was a 76er fan and how much I hated Danny Ainge. That would have been indulgent and unprofessional.

    I’m sure he heard that last part quite often.

    • #11
  12. Jon1979 Inactive
    Jon1979
    @Jon1979

    Franco (View Comment):

    While working as a stiltwalker funnyman at Merv Griffin’s Resorts International in Atlantic City, I saw Celtics center Robert Parrish in the lobby. I went over to him shook his hand from my ten-foot perch and used my standard line for anyone over 6’4” , “Great to see you here, Mr.Parrish, you need someone to look up to”. He smiled, which is gushing emotion for him.

    I didn’t tell him I was a 76er fan and how much I hated Danny Ainge. That would have been indulgent and unprofessional.

    FWIW, Ainge was sort of stand-offish dealing with the minor league fans at the Syracuse Chiefs games in the summer of ’78, when he had been signed to a pro baseball contract with the Blue Jays, but was still playing college basketball.

    • #12
Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.