Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
Day 79: COVID-19 Putting a Smiley Face on Martial Law
I was at a bit of a quandary as to what graphic to display today. So I decided just to highlight the current IHME COVID-19 death projection for the US. Notice anything? It’s about two-thirds the estimate a week ago. Some in the press want you to pat yourself on the back for being good little citizens and staying home, thus reducing the death rate. Except that the model always assumed we would be good little citizens and stay home. So why the change? Don’t know, other than reality intruding on prediction.
The United States today is under a form of martial law. Actually it is under about 42 state martial laws and six local jurisdiction martial laws — about 95% of the population. Of course, there has been no declaration of martial law. Instead, the restrictions imposed have been health emergency declarations going by some euphemisms like “safer at home” and “shelter in place.” But the net result is that 95% of American citizens are at least temporarily having their civil rights abridged.
What rights are those? Right of assembly — the governments have banned crowds, small groups, and even entertainment of non-resident persons in your home. Freedom of religion — pursuant to the bans on crowds, church congregations are not permitted to…congregate. Right to keep and bear arms — governments are closing gun stores having deemed them “non-essential.” Right of property — orders to close businesses not deemed “essential” by the government is a form of taking from the business owners and the employees. The recent worker relief legislation (to the extent it actually compensates business owners and employees for lost income) is not welfare it is payment of a debt owed. Freedom of travel — governments are restricting movement except for essential activities, e.g., food, medicines, health care.
Are restricting these freedoms justified? Unclear. Most of us want to give the government the benefit of the doubt for a short-term denial of rights in an emergency. Uncertainty about the health threat certainly justifies caution. The highest priority is to assure that local/regional health care systems are not overwhelmed and that traumas and diseases could no longer be treated. While that system is under threat, government control is most justified. But once it becomes clear that the local/regional health care system can manage the health challenges, what is the rationale for continued deprivation of liberty?
There are those that might argue that it’s to save lives. Except that we don’t save any lives. Death is inevitable. The timing of death is variable and it is not within the control of the government to extend life.
Then it must be to protect individuals from bad actors within the community — those that irresponsibly spread disease. Well, OK. In general, I am of a mind that your liberty ends at the tip of my nose. But we all know that isn’t quite true. Government is a poor arbiter over the inconveniences that people impose on one another and functions best only in post facto imposition of punishment as a deterrence to future outrages. And government is not securing maximum health for all of its citizens unless it is omniscient, omnipresent, omnipotent, and omni-beneficent. Governments are never any of these.
How about “national security?” The argument is that to preserve the nation the citizenry must be controlled. Isn’t that kind of like “burning the village to save it?” And yet that seems to be what (Obamacare architect) Zeke Emmanuel is calling for; imposing “social distancing” for 18 months until a coronavirus vaccine is ready. If what Emmanuel has in mind is what Sweden is doing, fine. But if he believes that we should just stay in our homes, out of work, out of business, for the next 18 months, then sorry. That’s just martial law with a smiley face.
[Note: Links to all my CoVID-19 posts can be found here.]
Published in General
Zeke Emanuel is a nut job.
Sadly I don’t think he is unrepresentative of the progressive mindset.
After a couple of months, it’ll take more than a smiley face to enforce this.
The biggest problem is public sector employees and the elites have not been hurt by the lockdown.
For them it’s like a paid vacation so let’s have a lockdown forever… or until we stop getting overpaid.
I’ve always thought those COVID-19 predictions had a lot in common with the global warming projections — a lot of speculation based on very little actual data.
Bingo. And the same crowd producing them. Isolated unaccountable academics. Subsidized by wealthy leftists. Add them together you have martial law which seems not to require any martial since people are self enforcing. People have been convinced that everyone will get this flu if in contact with other humans and if you get the flu you will die.
I will say it again… it is a possibility that we were very lucky – and, ironically, saved by the “incompetence” that led to a lack of early testing, such that by the time our level of testing reached the point that panic induced governors to impose martial law, the virus had already pretty much run its course. At least, I’m hoping this is what happened.
The downside is that the sharks have had their taste of blood – and we’re going to see a lot more modern-day Wilsons and FDRs.
I think we will have to fight like… we haven’t fought in a long time to keep them from finagling mail in voting for the presidency and keeping trump out of office. That’s what it’s about now. Butcher the economy and defeat him.
It will be sooner than a couple of months. If the models continue to be adjusted down, the weather turns nice and we start seeing more reports of people being arrested or fined for being outside (especially if they are one of the “non essential” workers without a paycheck) we will see the beginnings of civil dissonance which hopefully will not morph into uncivil disobedience.
I don’t know much, but I do know that everyone who hates Trump thinks COVID-19 is going to kill off the planet, and everyone who doesn’t hate Trump…doesn’t. So…
Where’d you get that chart?
Obviously some don’t think a price should be prepared to keep the health care system being overwhelmed.
the little data we had could have been useful if people looked at it.
such as SARS, which is a type of corona virus
Diamond Princess cruise data
The assumptions underlying these models were never questioned such as a 56 percent infection rate
like global warming projections, these models have too many variables.
more variables lead to overfitting which leads to inaccurate predictions.
metro vs rural
I’m beginning to think the ‘health care system will be overwhelmed’ is or was exaggerated.
The health care workers who are overwhelmed work for hospitals that refused to prescribe hydroxychloroquine, imo
you can’t say, we are overwhelmed but we insist on treatments that have gone thru 4 stages of the FDA clinical trial process.
and after the FDA gave emergency permission, some states and hospitals still refuse to prescribe hydroxychloroquine
like in UK and Boris Johnson
The price tag was set before via over regulation of health care and hospitals
CDC has one job: contain the spread of infectious diseases
Major fail
I think it depends on where you are. It certainly wasn’t here where I live. Not in my county, not in my state. Italy? Seems like it. NYC? Seems like it.
@spin, if you are referring to the chart in the OP it is at: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america.
They were unprepared.
Both health care systems are over regulated and bureaucratized.
They exacerbated the situation by fixating on ventilators instead of drugs that treat malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis.
NYC let the subways run too long. DeBlasio seemed to be in denial until it was too late.
Italy had a ‘hug a chinese’ day in response to Trump’s flight ban to/from China.
I agree they were overwhelmed but why?
IHME but the website is healthdata.org
which is easier to remember? obviously IHME
who is up for monday morning quarterback?
https://saraacarter.com/jan-flashback-dr-fauci-said-coronavirus-is-not-a-major-threat-to-the-people-of-the-united-states/
Thanks.
Oh now you change your tune?
Easy, easy…i’m just funnin’ with ya!
I don’t know why. I won’t say I don’t care, because I do care when people needlessly die. I will say that it’s not up to me to worry about Italy and New York. It’s up to me to worry about where I’m at. And aggregating data that includes locations hardest hit, and extrapolating policy out to areas like mine…that’s tomfoolery. Tomfoolery, I tell ya!
good catch! I deserve it!
my joe biden moment.
I took a harsh position because the health care system in Italy and NY are inflexible and understaffed.
Then they were late preparing for the onslaught.
So we are making sacrifices to help health care workers but why should we make sacrifices for lack of preparation and competence?
Yes, state wide or nation wide bans is tomfoolery indeed.
why do rural areas have to be treated like metro areas?
they should not
Willis Eschenbach at WUWT, in Flattening the Curve, analyses the IHME data and concludes that the stay at home orders and the closing of non essential services didn’t flatten the curve, and the school shutdowns only did so marginally.
flattening the curve = slowing the rate of transmission = prolonging the life of the virus = delaying herd immunity
I, for one, understand that I don’t understand the medicine behind this virus. I can do nothing more than trust that our elected leaders have made rational decisions.
However, there is a limit to my tolerance. There will come a point where we will need to have either found a cure or treatment for this, or we just press on.
when you say ‘press on’, you mean return to semi-normalcy?
I sound like warren harding in 1920
Since he’s the brothers of the “Never let a crisis go to waste” guy and was part of the ACA brain trust while Rahm was Chief of Staff under Obama, taking Zeke at face value here is done at your own risk. That he actually believes what he’s saying is about as likely to be true as the counter-argument that he doesn’t, but knows Americans would be in open revolt by November at the White House if Trump actually did that, while at the same time any COVID-19 death if Trump relaxes restrictions can then be treated as an outrageous affront on humanity in the run-up to the election if Trump doesn’t follow your hyper-cautious measures.
Emanuel’s proposal is more about assuring coronavirus is a campaign issue than any realistic balance between security and freedom. Even Julia from the 2012 Obama campaign would be chafing at 18 months of shelter-in-place restrictions by the government, especially if the death toll keeps underperforming estimates, but if you put that marker down and Trump doesn’t follow it, then you give the Chuck Todds of the world the ability to make saying Trump has blood on his hands into their mantra in the months leading up to Election Day.
Yes, sorry I wasn’t clear.
he has 2 brothers:
Rahm: never waste a crisis
Ari Emanuel: Hollywood agent, very unpleasant man
There is something wrong with this family