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This Once, But Never Again
Whether or not we should have been, we were caught unprepared by this epidemic. There will be plenty of time to assign blame when this current phase is over. I’m willing to excuse virtually any error if it was made with good intentions. That doesn’t include naked power grabs; those have to be exposed and punished. But unpreparedness, miscalculations, overly optimistic or pessimistic assumptions, and excessive or inadequate reactions: all of these can be expected when something this big and this novel happens this quickly.
But it can only happen once. Assuming this peaks soon, as seems likely, and assuming it is expected to return in the winter, as again seems likely, we have a few months to prepare.
Next time, we should accept the deaths rather than shut down. This isn’t the last epidemic we’ll experience, and we can’t be brought to our knees each time a particularly virulent strain reaches our shores.
We have time to prepare. Our government should do that, investing as necessary in this aspect of our defense. It should do it with the understanding that we the American people are unwilling to be caged again because our defenses were inadequate for something that we now know is out there.
Never again.
Published in General
It’s also killing smaller but significant numbers of younger people. Many with preexisting conditions but some of whom turn out to have had no known problems. See this graph from NYC last week; about as many 45-64 year olds as 65-74 year olds died. Overall, as usual, more men than women.
This isn’t meant to imply that the best public policy might not be to write off the ones my age and older, though. There was a while there when I didn’t think I’d see 55, so I’m not complaining.
I think that’s nonsense.
My friend, you are leaping to conclusions faster than I can respond. This reminds me of that famous Jordan Peterson interview with the woman who kept saying “So you’re saying….”
Somewhere between “do nothing” and “lock down the country and plunge millions into unemployment” there are a bunch of options. In other words, there are lots of goalposts. I’m not moving them, just saying that we shouldn’t immediately go for the most distant one based on unreliable data about an almost entirely not understood disease.
@instugator, let me give you some examples of the kind of gradations I’m talking about. These could be part of a “novel biological threat contingency plan” document produced by the CDC and distributed to the states.
The document would include a note saying that “These are merely recommendations, but without any binding authority.”
2. When the expected casualty count reaches 1,204,000: Suggest that governors ask bars and restaurants in hardest hit areas to voluntarily institute please-wear-a-mask rules, and offer free hand sanitizer to patrons.
3. When the expected casualty count reaches 2,000,000: Suggest that governors encourage businesses which can easily accommodate work-at-home employees to voluntarily offer that option while encouraging mask wearing and making hand sanitizer freely available.
…
10. When the expected casualty count reaches 3,856,004: Suggest that governors should take what they believe to be appropriate action, mindful of the need to minimize disruption for people in areas and/or demographics who are at reduced risk.
I live in a corner of New York state barely touched by this epidemic. We are completely shut down. Our Governor is a grandstanding idiot.
This is comforting to some degree, except…don’t we all have underlying conditions? I’m overweight and out of shape…plus I’m an arrogant bastard.
So do I.
Oh, great. Now I feel compelled to revisit my position. I’m never comfortable when anyone agrees with me. (That’s why I appreciate it when the loopier members comment. Not naming any names here, of course….)
Clarification of terms. Casualty count or fatality count?
Casualties generally mean hurt, may have to do modified work. Fatality is self explanatory.
But if the Montana Governor waits to a fatality count of 854K before he acts, he will have waited until both Montana and Wyoming are depopulated.
So, I don’t think your number works.
BTW 3.8M is 3/4 of Louisiana’s population. If the LA gov waits until then, well, you should know.
The response to COVID-19 has, in fact, been a response rooted in Federalism. States made their own decisions. Which is a good thing.
If you agree with Spin then you know you are wrong.
Again, you’re making assumptions. We can look at the full count across the nation, even as governors politely ask the citizens of their states if they might voluntarily comply with modest requests for a bit of behavior change in the face of a national crisis.
And I’m using “casualty” to mean “death.” I mean, come on: anything short of death and it’s hardly worth having this conversation.
I understand. If dreamers like you and Spin agreed with me then I would have to revisit my perspective to make sure it was still grounded in reality.
No individual government made the decision to “lock down the country”. 50 independent executives made decisions, based on information they knew and that was provided by the Federal Government. Of them, 5 States have made no ‘stay at home’ decisions at all, while 3 states have partial orders. 42 went another way.
Under this President, things worked the way they are supposed to.
Me too.
BTW – Governors get to make their decisions when they want to. For the Federal Government to dictate adherence to item 10 (of your list) would violate federalism in many ways.
Probably violates the 9th and 10th amendments to the constitution too.
Hoard toilet paper of course.
In Peterson’s case, he had actually written things she could respond to. You, on the other hand, are remarkably light on the details until questioned.
Governors can politely ask anything they want anytime they want – they can also issue executive orders on their own recognizance whenever they want.
Do you agree that the Federal Government did not impose the contact restrictions or stay at home orders on the states?
Just asking, because what you seem to be advocating is that the Federal government aggregate to itself powers it doesn’t currently have (mainly restricting Governors from their allowed actions in their own states.)
There really was not a toilet paper shortage. There was a break down of the supply chain. What we need to do is figure out a way to diversify and make the supply chains more agile.
When older, rich, powerful people get scared for their lives, position and ideologies. They tend to overreact, wars get started, economies get destroyed. That is what is happening now. Those at the top got scared and overreacted as usual. Just like they did back at 9/11, and pretty much any war. It really does not matter if you believe it or not. It is just how the world works.